Silver

[LVG]

Nothing in this post or any post of mine is ever trading advice.

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You should always consult a professional and do your own research before taking any action.

Though, there certainly isn't anything wrong with putting that in your post.

FYI.

 

[82CardsGrad]

20 tons, at 15 in cubed / ton, so that would measure 5 ft by 5 ft by 6 ft 3 in.

Could keep it in a janitor's closet

Heard the guy who runs the fund at Univ. of Texas in an intereview on CNBC yesterday. He wouldn't disclose exactly where the gold is, but, he did confirm that it is underground in NYC.

 

[LVG]

Heard the guy who runs the fund at Univ. of Texas in an intereview on CNBC yesterday. He wouldn't disclose exactly where the gold is, but, he did confirm that it is underground in NYC.

Fed Reserve Bank of NY, I would bet. Largest known holding of gold in the world.

 

[jefftheshark]

Fed Reserve Bank of NY, I would bet. Largest known holding of gold in the world.

It's being kept in a COMEX approved HSBC vault which surprised me, as I thought they'd want it closer to home for when they secede from the Union.

(I think)

JTS

 

[conraddobler]

This is getting ridiculous.

They raise silver margin requirements AGAIN! lol.

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv11-149.pdf


Below is a great link to a good presentation on Silver, I encourage everyone to view it all, but it's very long. To sum up it's a rip your face off commodity, tends to telegraph the destruction by throwing in a correction larger than the preceding ones, once the largest previous correction is breached it seems you have very little time to beat it out of there.

Again if you have a position I ecourage you to view the entire thing don't take my word for it.

http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2011/04/20-video-01.php

 

[conraddobler]

^^^^^^^^^

See the above.

 

[LVG]

Down 4.50 today to just over 40.

 

[conraddobler]

Down 4.50 today to just over 40.

I sold mine already, and just as an anecdote when I was in there it was VERY busy, guy brought in a whole @##tload of dimes.

Reminded me of Blazing Saddles.

I'll be buying if it gets below $20 again.

 

[LVG]

I sold mine already, and just as an anecdote when I was in there it was VERY busy, guy brought in a whole @##tload of dimes.

Reminded me of Blazing Saddles.

I'll be buying if it gets below $20 again.

I bought in at 15 & 20, respectively. If it drops below 20 I'd be ecstatic and would buy more, but I don't think it will get much below $25.

 

[jefftheshark]

I bought in at 15 & 20, respectively. If it drops below 20 I'd be ecstatic and would buy more, but I don't think it will get much below $25.

The dollar is below 73 as I type this, the spot price markup for Maple Leafs is still over $5 and the COMEX just announced that silver available for delivery is smaller than previously thought - again. There have been 5 margin increases over the span of 2 weeks with two if them within the last 48 hours. Somebody is throwing everything they can at this to make it go down. The paper PM's are going up in flames but the physical owners are not wholesale selling (CD aside ) or at least not yet.

25? I'll be shocked to see 35 and will be an incremental buyer at 37 - if it hits that mark.

Just my .02

JTS

 

[LVG]

The dollar is below 73 as I type this, the spot price markup for Maple Leafs is still over $5 and the COMEX just announced that silver available for delivery is smaller than previously thought - again. There have been 5 margin increases over the span of 2 weeks with two if them within the last 48 hours. Somebody is throwing everything they can at this to make it go down. The paper PM's are going up in flames but the physical owners are not wholesale selling (CD aside ) or at least not yet.

25? I'll be shocked to see 35 and will be an incremental buyer at 37 - if it hits that mark.

Just my .02

JTS

If the dollar breaks 70, we'll be in some interesting territory.

My price point for Ag is 35, at that point I'll start buying again, or with an significant upswing and still below 40. Either or.

 

[conraddobler]

The dollar is below 73 as I type this, the spot price markup for Maple Leafs is still over $5 and the COMEX just announced that silver available for delivery is smaller than previously thought - again. There have been 5 margin increases over the span of 2 weeks with two if them within the last 48 hours. Somebody is throwing everything they can at this to make it go down. The paper PM's are going up in flames but the physical owners are not wholesale selling (CD aside ) or at least not yet.

25? I'll be shocked to see 35 and will be an incremental buyer at 37 - if it hits that mark.

Just my .02

JTS

The dollar is sitting on key support, gold and silver both were at times vertical.

QE2 is winding down, they will delay QE3 long enough to get people to buy it's done, "it won't be" and the dollar will probably rally.

Predicting when the dollar will collapse is a bit tougher than when it seems obvious I would think.

 

[jefftheshark]

The dollar is sitting on key support, gold and silver both were at times vertical.

QE2 is winding down, they will delay QE3 long enough to get people to buy it's done, "it won't be" and the dollar will probably rally.

Predicting when the dollar will collapse is a bit tougher than when it seems obvious I would think.

The parallels to 2008 are somewhat interesting. We had a quick spike in commodity prices, $4 gas which toasted the economy and then deflation struck with oil, gold, equities all imploding. The Fed began printing and everything went up but the true economy.

Here we are again in the same boat except the economy is even weaker. Housing is definitely in a double dip and the stage is set for a repeat and yet our starting point is from a weaker position.

My gut feeling is that the Fed is going to give us all a taste of panic and then come riding in again to save the day. My fear is that the patient has become too weak to survive the increased medication and that its not going to work. This will set up the end game where the K-Winter will finally set in and we'll have the final fire that burns the house of cards (debt) down and we can finally begin to rebuild. This might just be wishful thinking, however.

Silver is dropping through supports like a hot knife through butter. I thought 37 would hold for a while but 35 could be in play as early as today. I said last night I would look at adding at 37 but I've already lowered that to 35 and I might even go to 33 if the drop continues to accelerate. Personally I'm looking at this as a gift as in a year or two down the road even 40 might look like the buy of a lifetime.

Or not.

JTS

 

[conraddobler]

The parallels to 2008 are somewhat interesting. We had a quick spike in commodity prices, $4 gas which toasted the economy and then deflation struck with oil, gold, equities all imploding. The Fed began printing and everything went up but the true economy.

Here we are again in the same boat except the economy is even weaker. Housing is definitely in a double dip and the stage is set for a repeat and yet our starting point is from a weaker position.

My gut feeling is that the Fed is going to give us all a taste of panic and then come riding in again to save the day. My fear is that the patient has become too weak to survive the increased medication and that its not going to work. This will set up the end game where the K-Winter will finally set in and we'll have the final fire that burns the house of cards (debt) down and we can finally begin to rebuild. This might just be wishful thinking, however.

Silver is dropping through supports like a hot knife through butter. I thought 37 would hold for a while but 35 could be in play as early as today. I said last night I would look at adding at 37 but I've already lowered that to 35 and I might even go to 33 if the drop continues to accelerate. Personally I'm looking at this as a gift as in a year or two down the road even 40 might look like the buy of a lifetime.

Or not.

JTS

The deflationists and inflationists are both right.

Keep your eye on the ball, it's the FED and everything it represents that is the problem.

They will use both ends of the stick to build an illusion that they're the answer, when in truth they are the disease.

It's the great saw toothed beast, "think saw toothed graph" and that makes sense because if you know this then you can make a great deal of wealth out of it.

I agree that a buying opportunity in silver will present itself because at the end of the day I agree with the inflationists, fiat money will be destroyed crowd.

However a few people control the end game of this and going straight there would be no fun for them.

The last time silver did this it spiked to 20$ plus then fell back to 8$.

That's a 60% retrace.

So I guess if I was going to come up with a price target I'd say about $20 should hold, that's the simple way I got my price target.

 

[jefftheshark]

Well here we are two weeks later and it looks like even after three good attempts to go lower, silver seems to have found solid support at 33. And sure enough if you look at the dollar it hit 76 and bounced right back down as if it hit a rocky outcrop.

If an ignorant aquatic ocean predator like myself can figure this out, can you say "market manipulation"?

I know that CD might disagree but I think the market is waking up to the fact that without a QE3 the Apocalypse will be upon us, so it has to happen. Of course this is stupid as to a certain extent we're screwed either way. But since there is no way they can service the debt without further printing I'm betting that's the path of least resistance.

Now here is the devil's advocate version (JTS covering his bases ):

If the Greek situation (or any of the other little PIIGies, for that matter as well) blows up similar to Lehman Bros. then all bets are off. In this case then it would be easy to see a huge whoosh! of deflation circle the globe as counter-parties one by one explode into a supernova even the US, German and Chinese Central Banks can't extinguish. But even if this were to happen I still think that having a stash of physical metals will make a lot of sense.

There is a reason why spot prices for physical silver is still over $5 an ounce, even with paper silver driving the price down in dollars. Everybody should be thinking about how they will get their assets onto the next page of history, if only for insurance purposes or to sleep well at night. (Besides, it's not like we can be talking about the NFL, right?)

JTS

Disclaimer - Long silver, gold, ammo and booze

Oh and food too

 

[conraddobler]

Well here we are two weeks later and it looks like even after three good attempts to go lower, silver seems to have found solid support at 33. And sure enough if you look at the dollar it hit 76 and bounced right back down as if it hit a rocky outcrop.

If an ignorant aquatic ocean predator like myself can figure this out, can you say "market manipulation"?

I know that CD might disagree but I think the market is waking up to the fact that without a QE3 the Apocalypse will be upon us, so it has to happen. Of course this is stupid as to a certain extent we're screwed either way. But since there is no way they can service the debt without further printing I'm betting that's the path of least resistance.

Now here is the devil's advocate version (JTS covering his bases ):

If the Greek situation (or any of the other little PIIGies, for that matter as well) blows up similar to Lehman Bros. then all bets are off. In this case then it would be easy to see a huge whoosh! of deflation circle the globe as counter-parties one by one explode into a supernova even the US, German and Chinese Central Banks can't extinguish. But even if this were to happen I still think that having a stash of physical metals will make a lot of sense.

There is a reason why spot prices for physical silver is still over $5 an ounce, even with paper silver driving the price down in dollars. Everybody should be thinking about how they will get their assets onto the next page of history, if only for insurance purposes or to sleep well at night. (Besides, it's not like we can be talking about the NFL, right?)

JTS

Disclaimer - Long silver, gold, ammo and booze

Oh and food too

You say support I'd call it resistence.

Nothing goes straight down except Arnold's marriage.



Sheesh, give it time, give it time.



The FED exists for one reason, to be the banker at the world's largest game of monopoly, that's it.

The only difference in this game and that one is that we acutally are stupid enough to trade the money for real things, which is your point really.

You have to be careful here, it's blindingly obvious to anyone who does any math we're screwed.

By that logic the dollar should be worthless right now, as always, timing is everything.