Sorting through the Draft

[Harry]

I was encouraged to see the Cards publically indicate they would go front 7 on defense. It was no big shock, but it still seems to fit with what I see.

Here’s a brief round by round of some of the likely pool they be may be looking at when that portion of the draft arrives. I would take one of these players (in order) should they be available at that point. I cannot recall a year when there was so much division of opinion about into which round a given player would fall. It wouldn’t shock me to see someone I have in 3, go in round 1. There is little consensus after the top 10 picks.

I think the Cards will go DT if either Williams or Odrick is still on the board. If they are gone, the Cards will take the best linebacker available: inside or outside. If there has been a major run on linebackers (a slight possibility), then they may look at the corners. I see no OT that likely lasts that late who is worth the pick. I feel quite certain they will get one of the DTs. I know many people do not see Odrick as a NT. I do. He can still add a few pounds to his frame. He is exceptionally strong and shows an excellent understanding of leverage. He has exceptional agility for his size; making him my first choice. Williams is more the traditional DT, less mobile but more difficult to move. That is not to say Williams is one dimensional, he’s just doesn’t offer the flexibility Odrick does. Odrick could even move to DE in a 3-4 and would fit inside in a 4-3 alignment as well.

Players with an asterisk could well be gone at the indicated point, especially with the Cards picking late in each round. For example I think Tebow likely goes in round one and probably to Jacksonville if they can move down. Yes, I think he will be a solid NFL QB. I have Spikes earlier than most. He dropped because of his timed speed, but his game speed looks fine to me. Butler could well go before him and I heard the Cards liked him. I also have Watson and Cooper earlier than I suspect others do. Cooper is a money player, playing big when it means the most. He runs very polished routes for a young player. Watson also makes plays and should have immediate value on special teams. Another undervalued player is Rolle. You can’t teach smart. He’s always in the right place at the right time and knows what to do when he finds himself there. Somewhere along the line the Cards must get a return man. I have several options positioned in various rounds, but most of them are one-trick ponies.

Round 1
Jared Odrick DT
Dan Williams DT
Jerry Hughes OLB (suddenly underrated)
Sean Weatherspoon OLB (can play inside if needed)
Kyle Wilson CB (little bust potential, will succeed at least at nickel)

Round 2
Linval Joseph DT
Brandon Spikes ILB*
Donald Butler ILB*
Patrick Robinson CB
Tim Tebow QB*
Vlad Ducasse OT*

Round 3
Jason Worilds OLB
Dekoda Watson OLB
Riley Cooper WR
Roger Safford OT*
Perrish Cox CB*
Emmanuel Sanders KR/WR

Round 4
Cam Thomas DT*
Walter McFadden CB
Myron Rolle S
Clay Harbor FB/TE
Trindon Holliday KR/WR
Brandon James KR/RB

Round 6
Junior Galette OLB
Kendrick Lewis S
Antonio Brown KR
Matt Tennant C*
Selvish Capers OT*

Round 7
Nic Richmond OT
Sam Shields CB/ST
David Bryant S/ST
Dom Randolph QB

So I think they’ll take 2 linebackers, 2 offensive linemen, 1 quarterback, 1 corner, 1 safety and a kick returner, who likely doubles as a returner. I know that’s 8, but it’s not an exact science. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a TE/FB combo player like Harbor instead of a safety. Hopefully I got all the spellings & positions correct. I don’t have a proof reader any more. Enjoy the draft. It’s truly unique in all of sports.

 

[football karma]

thank Harry--

regarding Brandon Spikes. He strikes me as having some Anquan Boldin parallels draft-wise:

team leader from a top notch program, very, very productive, but runs a much slower than expected 40 time. Game film suggests he should be faster. At the worst, I see this guy as the next Gerald Hayes -- a very solid pro who plays a physical middle linebacker.

 

[kerouac9]

Thanks for the outlook, Harry. I'm interested in your thoughts on Odrick. You know way more than I about these things, but I just look at his frame and I don't know if he's thick enough in the lower body to anchor against the run in the middle:

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Odrick reminds me a lot more of former Nebraska DT Adam Carriker, who was a first-round pick for the Rams and hasn't really found his footing in the NFL, in part due to injuries:

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In comparison (for other fans, not for you), this is how Vince Wilfork's frame looked coming out of The U:

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Are you thinking now that Terrance Cody will be gone by the time the Cards pick in Round 2?

 

[az jam]

Excellent analysis, Harry. Thanks for your thoughts on the upcoming draft.

 

[Cardiac]

Great info as always Harry. At the end you state that the Cards will take 2 Oline but I hope you meant 2 Dline.

 

[TheCardFan]

I really enjoy your posts Harry but I disagree with you completely on Odrick and Williams being good fits for us. So...I will probably be dissapointed on draft day because you are usually spot on.

Odrick and Iupati are the two guys I definitely don't want the Cards to draft in round 1.

I 100% agree on Spikes...and would love to see Cody drafted as well.

 

[SuperSpck]

Nice stuff Harry

 

[Monty]

Pretty interesting read so thanks to Harry for that. I think the Odrick as possible NT would be daring because not only has Odrick never really played the position but his phyiscal stature is not that of a typical nose tackle but i agree he does have both the leverage and agility to possibly make it work. I still think it could be a very risky move for a team to try and do and i do think his skill set and body stature is better built for DE where he does remind me of Calais Campbell a little bit.

 

[Stout]

I love the insight and information you bring, Harry, and this post is certainly no exception.

That said, I have to say I think you're dead wrong about Odrick. I mean, I can't even understand how you'd think he has the ability to be a NT. I've watched nearly every game he plays, and not only does he play too high at the position (something that may be coachable), he simply doesn't have the frame for it. If he added more pounds, he'd just be an overweight 3-4 DT. He will never have the build to be a prototypical NT. I think the only way a person can perceive him as a NT is if, in agreement with Mitch, they think an undersized NT with a slimmer build and more speed could play the position. You clearly think he can add the weight to become a NT. He can't, trust me.

 

[Mitch]

I love the insight and information you bring, Harry, and this post is certainly no exception.

That said, I have to say I think you're dead wrong about Odrick. I mean, I can't even understand how you'd think he has the ability to be a NT. I've watched nearly every game he plays, and not only does he play too high at the position (something that may be coachable), he simply doesn't have the frame for it. If he added more pounds, he'd just be an overweight 3-4 DT. He will never have the build to be a prototypical NT. I think the only way a person can perceive him as a NT is if, in agreement with Mitch, they think an undersized NT with a slimmer build and more speed could play the position. You clearly think he can add the weight to become a NT. He can't, trust me.

Hey, Stout, we have been debating the NT philosophies on the board, and some prefer big fatties and some prefer good athletes...I do see the merits in both, and as a coach I have had both types. In my experience the good athletes made the defense better because they were the ones the other teams worried about more. Big fatties just sit there to clog things up, but you don't have to worry at all about them getting into your backfield or being a factor on passing plays.

This said, the Cardinals have started Bryan Robinson at NT the past two years and felt he did a servicebale job...so much so that neither gabe Watson (6-4, 329) nor Alan Branch (6-5, 338) could beat him out. So much for our two big fatties. Do you realize what Bryan Robinson's size is?

6-4, 304.

Jared Odrick---with his fresh legs and great motor---checks in at 6-5, 308. So right away he would be an upgrade over Robinson, and I am certain that because teams would worry about his penetration, Dockett and Campbell would be doubled teamed less and the three of them with their athleticism would wreak total havoc on the inside.

The thing is this---IF the Cardinals take Jared Odrick at #26, which I think probably won't happen because I see him going to the Patriots at #22, they can't be drafting him to be a backup DE. That would then mean that we have the #33 pick of the 2007 draft and the #26 pick of the 2010 draft as backup DEs.

If the Cardinals take him at #26, he's the NT and will be a rush DT in the 4 man line in a rotation with Dockett and Campbell.

 

[CardLogic]

I love the insight and information you bring, Harry, and this post is certainly no exception.

I think the only way a person can perceive him as a NT is if, in agreement with Mitch, they think an undersized NT with a slimmer build and more speed could play the position. You clearly think he can add the weight to become a NT. He can't, trust me.

Agreed, Stout. However, I do like Odrick's enthusiasm and wonder if there might be some sort of innovative hybid scheme the Cardinals could come up with if Odrick were in the middle of DD and CC!

 

[joeshmo]

Agreed, Stout. However, I do like Odrick's enthusiasm and wonder if there might be some sort of innovative hybid scheme the Cardinals could come up with if Odrick were in the middle of DD and CC!

I feel sorry for our ILB's in that scheme. We better have 4 guys deep because they are going to get beat up like they have never been before.

Also I have done much research on the kid but a Penn state homer friend of mine stated that before the 2009 season the guy was being blasted by coaches, fans and media for his lack of work ethic, consistency and effort prior to the 2009 season. Didn't turn it on until he knew the scouts were watching his senior year. I think he has a record as well. Dude has some skinny, skinny legs.

If your looking for a smaller faster guy to put in the middle, of which I don't think we are set up for I would rather have Brian Price who has tree trunks for legs.

Although Robinson did a admirable job at NT, lets not pretend we were exactly the most stout run D in the NFL. Ranked 24th last year and 11th the year before. Why did that ranking go down in 2009, I think it was because Hayes wore down very fast under the be-rage of hits he was taking from interior OL because Robinson could not keep them off. Robinson also has 10 years in the league and had a much better understanding of leverage, hands, and technique then any rookie, 1st year player or even 2nd year player could dream of knowing. If we could find a 305 pound rookie with the smarts of a 5 year veteran then I wouldn't mind taking him. But a skinny legged 305 pounder who knows nothing about the position is just plain old trouble. It is also good to note that the "skinner" type NT in this league work for their teams because they have 320 pound fatty DE's on both sides of them and whose jobs it is to draw double teams from the OT and OG and let the NT get push up the middle. That scheme is not the scheme we run with 280 pound lightning bolts on each side of our NT.

 

[Stout]

I feel sorry for our ILB's in that scheme. We better have 4 guys deep because they are going to get beat up like they have never been before.

Also I have done much research on the kid but a Penn state homer friend of mine stated that before the 2009 season the guy was being blasted by coaches, fans and media for his lack of work ethic, consistency and effort prior to the 2009 season. Didn't turn it on until he knew the scouts were watching his senior year. I think he has a record as well. Dude has some skinny, skinny legs.

Although Robinson did a admirable job at NT, lets not pretend we were exactly the most stout run D in the NFL. Ranked 24th last year and 11th the year before. Why did that ranking go down in 2009, I think it was because Hayes wore down very fast under the be-rage of hits he was taking from interior OL because Robinson could not keep them off. Robinson also has 10 years in the league and had a much better understanding of leverage, hands, and technique then any rookie, 1st year player or even 2nd year player could dream of knowing. If we could find a 305 pound rookie with the smarts of a 5 year veteran then I wouldn't mind taking him. But a skinny legged 305 pounder who knows nothing about the position is just plain old trouble.

Good reply, Joe. I don't know about the criticisms you mentioned, but you nailed it when you clarified the argument about NTs.

Mitch, the reason we were poor against the run in the 3-4 was because we didn't have a NT to keep offensive linemen off of our linebackers. The reason we got better against the run is because our defensive coordinator constantly had to send aggressive run blitzes and make gambles to stop the run. Yeah, it helped our numbers against the run, but absolutely killed us in pass defense. That's the goofy hybrid 3-4 we've been running.

Also, the point you continually miss is that it isn't a NTs job to make huge plays, rush the passer, or dart into the backfield in a 3-4. Not even remotely! His job is to absorb blockes so that the ILBers can be free of blocks and make plays. I don't care if our NT doesn't get a single tackle or recordable stat in a game, as long as he plugs the middle, helps keep the other team under 100 yards rushing, and keeps the ILBers free to make plays. That is his mission in life as a NT.

 

[Doc Cardinal]

Round 1
Jared Odrick DT
Dan Williams DT
Jerry Hughes OLB (suddenly underrated)
Sean Weatherspoon OLB (can play inside if needed)
Kyle Wilson CB (little bust potential, will succeed at least at nickel)

Round 2
Linval Joseph DT
Brandon Spikes ILB*
Donald Butler ILB*
Patrick Robinson CB
Tim Tebow QB*
Vlad Ducasse OT*

Round 3
Jason Worilds OLB
Dekoda Watson OLB
Riley Cooper WR
Roger Safford OT*
Perrish Cox CB*
Emmanuel Sanders KR/WR


I wouldn't have any problem with any of Harry's round 1 picks.....I highlighted some in the later rounds that some mags have as potential first round picks....Robinson may be the only one I like at CB.


This is the way my board would rank Harry's first round possibles:
1.Sean Weatherspoon OLB (can play inside if needed)
2.Jerry Hughes OLB (suddenly underrated)
3.Dan Williams DT
4.Kyle Wilson CB (little bust potential, will succeed at least at nickel)
5.Jared Odrick DT

 

[joeshmo]

Good reply, Joe. I don't know about the criticisms you mentioned,

Mayock brought it up as well when talking about him, of which he liked him a lot by the way. Noted how he made a complete 180 his senior year showing great effort and motor for the first time.

 

[bg7brd]

What do you guys think of Torrell Troup? He might not make it to us in the 3rd. Has anyone seen him play. He sounds like a Whiz type of player. Here are a couple of scouting reports
Torrell TroupHeight: 6-2¾ | Weight: 314 | 40-Time: 5.12

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Official Bio

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Strengths:
Terrific size with long arms --- Excellent strength --- Powerful --- Stout at the point of attack --- Can take on and occupy multiple blockers --- A great tackler --- Violent hand use --- Outleverages opponents --- Excels versus the run --- Fantastic bull rusher --- Tough --- Durable --- Leader.

Weaknesses:
Limited athletically --- Not very explosive --- Won't offer much as a pass rusher --- Doesn't get a lot of penetration --- Struggles to get off of blocks --- Doesn't have a lot of range --- Conditioning / Stamina Issues.

Notes:
Was a four-year starter for the Golden Knights --- Played under the name "Torrell Johnson" until 2008 --- Named 2nd Team C-USA in 2008 and 2009 --- Served as a team captain --- Missed some time with a left knee injury in 2006 --- Impressed at the East / West Shrine Game and really improved his draft stock --- Profiles as a quintessential nose tackle at the next level --- A one-dimension run-stuffer but excels in that capacity --- Will be highly coveted by teams that run a 3-4 scheme.



http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1621669?tag=pageRow;pageContainer

 

[az jam]

What do you guys think of Torrell Troup? He might not make it to us in the 3rd. Has anyone seen him play. He sounds like a Whiz type of player. Here are a couple of scouting reports
Torrell TroupHeight: 6-2¾ | Weight: 314 | 40-Time: 5.12

You must be registered for see images

Official Bio

You must be registered for see images

Strengths:
Terrific size with long arms --- Excellent strength --- Powerful --- Stout at the point of attack --- Can take on and occupy multiple blockers --- A great tackler --- Violent hand use --- Outleverages opponents --- Excels versus the run --- Fantastic bull rusher --- Tough --- Durable --- Leader.

Weaknesses:
Limited athletically --- Not very explosive --- Won't offer much as a pass rusher --- Doesn't get a lot of penetration --- Struggles to get off of blocks --- Doesn't have a lot of range --- Conditioning / Stamina Issues.

Notes:
Was a four-year starter for the Golden Knights --- Played under the name "Torrell Johnson" until 2008 --- Named 2nd Team C-USA in 2008 and 2009 --- Served as a team captain --- Missed some time with a left knee injury in 2006 --- Impressed at the East / West Shrine Game and really improved his draft stock --- Profiles as a quintessential nose tackle at the next level --- A one-dimension run-stuffer but excels in that capacity --- Will be highly coveted by teams that run a 3-4 scheme.



http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1621669?tag=pageRow;pageContainer

Troup is an excellent prospect and a true NT. He dominated the East/West game which caused him to rise on many draft boards. He may not be there when we pick on the 3rd round. I rate him just behind Cody on pure NT's.

 

[Monty]

What do you guys think of Torrell Troup? He might not make it to us in the 3rd.

I really like Troup's size and skill set and i do believe he has to potential to be a good NT at the NFL level. However like you i dont believe that he will make it to us in the third and if we are gonna for a NT in the second round id prefer Linval Joseph out of East Carolina. He is a guy with excellent size at 6'6 and 325 and has a similar general skill sets as Troup. However where Joseph shines above Troup is that he is extremely explosive and attacks with a great burst rushing offensive lineman and ensuring he takes their attention quickly thereby occupying several with his energetic approach. He is a very good tackler, attacks well behind the line and is hard worker with excellent leadership potential. I really like him and going by what Somers says so do the Cardinals. However if Troup were to fall to the Cardinals in the third id be happy taking him as he too has good potential at the position.

 

[az jam]

I really like Troup's size and skill set and i do believe he has to potential to be a good NT at the NFL level. However like you i dont believe that he will make it to us in the third and if we are gonna for a NT in the second round id prefer Linval Joseph out of East Carolina. He is a guy with excellent size at 6'6 and 325 and has a similar general skill sets as Troup. However where Joseph shines above Troup is that he is extremely explosive and attacks with a great burst rushing offensive lineman and ensuring he takes their attention quickly thereby occupying several with his energetic approach. He is a very good tackler, attacks well behind the line and is hard worker with excellent leadership potential. I really like him and going by what Somers says so do the Cardinals. However if Troup were to fall to the Cardinals in the third id be happy taking him as he too has good potential at the position.

Everything I read about Linval Joseph is that he is projected as a Dt on a 4 - 3 or a DE on a 3 - 4 defense. I've seen no one project him as a NT. Doesn't mean he can't do it but most don't see him playing the NT position.

 

[Monty]

Everything I read about Linval Joseph is that he is projected as a Dt on a 4 - 3 or a DE on a 3 - 4 defense. I've seen no one project him as a NT. Doesn't mean he can't do it but most don't see him playing the NT position.

His strengths match up better against the run then they do against the pass and his long hands, leverage and quick explosive burst at the point of the attack make him a perfect candidate to play as an NT in a 3-4 scheme. He is not quick enough and does not posses the pass rush skills required to play as a DE in the 3-4. Furthermore he does not posses quick enough hand skills to disengage blockers which is must for a DE where as at the NT position the key is that he makes sure he engages several blockers and eats up space which because of his tenacity work rate and drive he would be able to do. This makes his upside the highest at NT and i believe Kent Somers did say the Cards were looking at him for that spot as well.

 

[Russ Smith]

Mayock brought it up as well when talking about him, of which he liked him a lot by the way. Noted how he made a complete 180 his senior year showing great effort and motor for the first time.

Don't know a thing about Odrick but I know Brian Price well enough to know he's had weight issues at UCLA, academic issues(barely qualified UCLA was very torn on admitting him), and people have often questioned his motor he takes plays off. He makes big plays no question and when he came to play he could be really good, but he wasn't consistent.

Then he wasn't in shape for his pro day. I think he'll eventually be a pretty good pro player but I think he'll be one of those kids sort of like Branch who takes a few years to get just how good NFL playere are , you can't just go half speed all week and dominate on Sunday.

 

[HookemCards]

I'd rather take Lamar Houston in the 2nd if we are going to go undersized DT.

 

[Harry]

I just wanted to add a quick point. I didn’t mean to imply that I see Odrick as a hall-of-fame NT. What I do think is that he can play the position. Everyone needs to keep in mind where the Cards draft. Wilfork and other such comparisons do not apply. Guys like that won’t be there when the Cards select. They won’t be there by the 4th pick. So, at that point in the draft the Cards want a player who can start for years. Odrick is that guy. He can play in the middle, but he can also play end in a 3-4 and how long is Dockett going to be a Cardinal? Odrick fits in a 4-3 as well. He’s the most versatile defensive lineman in the draft. The Cards still have 2 rush linebackers already on the team, so how deep do you go? Yes they could go ILB, but that seems awfully early for someone who’s likely a 2 down player. The best fit for value might well be a cornerback, but the Cards strongly feel they need help in the middle and Odrick is at least a short-term, partial solution. He also has exceptional long-term value; more so than Williams in my opinion. The Cards will never be big spenders, so they need to keep drafting players capable of contributing year after year. Odrick fits that mode.

 

[Mitch]

I just wanted to add a quick point. I didn’t mean to imply that I see Odrick as a hall-of-fame NT. What I do think is that he can play the position. Everyone needs to keep in mind where the Cards draft. Wilfork and other such comparisons do not apply. Guys like that won’t be there when the Cards select. They won’t be there by the 4th pick. So, at that point in the draft the Cards want a player who can start for years. Odrick is that guy. He can play in the middle, but he can also play end in a 3-4 and how long is Dockett going to be a Cardinal? Odrick fits in a 4-3 as well. He’s the most versatile defensive lineman in the draft. The Cards still have 2 rush linebackers already on the team, so how deep do you go? Yes they could go ILB, but that seems awfully early for someone who’s likely a 2 down player. The best fit for value might well be a cornerback, but the Cards strongly feel they need help in the middle and Odrick is at least a short-term, partial solution. He also has exceptional long-term value; more so than Williams in my opinion. The Cards will never be big spenders, so they need to keep drafting players capable of contributing year after year. Odrick fits that mode.

Perfectly said, Harry.

 

[WildBB]

Great analysis Harry. It's always good to get your perspective.

1- R. Coopers #'s his Sr. yr. were pedestrian. (Maybe another reason you can be skepticle about Tebow). He had 18 rec. 261 yds. 14.5 avg. 3 TD's.
He did have some good big game catches, like you said though.

2- Why is L. Joseph rated so high when he projects to 3-4 DE. He'd be nothing but Docketts replacement eventually.

3- Meanwhile a true NT (Cam Thomas)you have rated in our 4th round. If he's there 2nd they may pounce. Definately 3rd.

4- Like your overall analysis of round by round targets. Williams (DT Tenn) should be long gone by the time we're on the clock but stranger things have happened. I've heard they're interested in him. Odrick is an extremely intruiging prospect. So is Brian Price whom you don't mention. I'd like to hear your take on him. He was VERY productive in college.

5- I also like Kyle Wilson. We'd have to look at him strongly if certain others are not availabe. Suddenly Hughes is a bit underrated and he very well could be our pick at 26 if we get no offers to move down. I think we're very flexable this year and have multiple players at need positions rated closely together.

6- Spikes , like Gerald Hayes, would be a coup iin the 3rd round. We have to look at that. Getting him and a NT there would be a great draft IMO. An extra 3rd for moving down and grabbing a WR would be beneficial as well.