Speculating Steve Keim's 2016 Draft Game Plan

Mitch

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* BA said that they had a grade on a QB at each pick and that other players had higher grades and so they weren't going to reach for a QB.

* I think this told us how Steve Kiem arranges his draft board---it's by position and grade at each pick. Not only did they have grades for QBs at each pick, they had grades for all other positions---and, without a doubt, in this draft, addressing team needs was a priority.

* I think that the Cardinals' game plan coming in was:

1-Nkemdiche, DT---they spent more time on him because he was the player they wanted at #29. They wanted the best interior disrupter and pass rusher they could find and in Nkemdi, they fulfilled that need.

3-T.J. Green, CB---they were hoping he would be available here, and wanted to draft a speed CB with length. Green was off the board. Once he was off the board, they started thinking that QB Jacoby Brissett might be the way to go, only the Patriots surprised everyone by taking him at #91, one spot ahead of the Cardinals. Could the "stealthy" Pats have known Steve Keim's interest in Brissett?

However, with the Pats having a 3rd round comp pick right behind them and knowing that the Pats had been showing great interest in CB Brandon Williams, Keim showed a little gamesmanship here and tabbed Williams, and at the same time addressed the team's desire to add a speed CB with length.

4-Evan Boehm, C---Keim has this pick written in pen before the draft began. I believe that even if Ryan Kelly was on a the board at #29, Keim would have still taken Nkemdi because he was confident that Boehm would be available at #128.

5A- Marqui Christian, S---Adrian Wilson was so impressed with Christian that Keim had penned his name in at pick #167. This explains why Keim passed on Myles Killebrew at #92. Kim spent a good deal of time with Killebrew and was very high on him, but the big question on Killebrew is his cover skills. In Christian, they get a better cover guy and still get a physical safety who as BA said, "will stick you."

5B-Joe Dahl, T/G---I believe he was Keim's target at #170, but he went off the board at #151. I think the next man up was Spencer Drango, T/G, but he went at #169, one pick in front of the Cardinals' pick. However, Keim's grade on Cole Toner was on a par with Dahl and Drango, all of whom they scouted at the Senior Bowl, so Keim went ahead and made the pick for Toner. Keim wanted a utility G/T/C here and he got one. Note---after Dahl and Drango were off the board, there likely was talk about taking QB Nate Sudfeld here, although they had been hoping to take Sudfeld in the 6th round. With the run on "flex" o-linemen in full swing, they felt it was better to take Toner and hope for Sudfeld at #205.

6-Nate Sudfeld, QB---he went off the board at #187 (6th Round), so then the discussion was whether or not to take QB Jeff Driskell---whom they probably would have taken were it not for the fact that in checking their big board a much higher rated player, Harlan Miller, CB, was still in play. What's very interesting about this pick is that Miller was in the discussion at #92. Reports out of Carolina were that they were going to take Miller at #93. Carolina had spent a lot of time with Miller and he fits their system very well because he's good at both press and off coverage and he has ball skills.

At this point, it became clear that Miller was by far the BPA and the best choice, especially seeing as Miller is more NFL ready to play right away than Brandon Williams---so in a way a great way to buy them a little more time with Brandon Williams, who will immediately be a boost on STs.

UDFA-Jake Coker, QB---he, imo, is a better fit in BA's offense than Nate Sudfeld. Plus, Coker, is mobile. I thought his play in the NCAA playoffs, particularly in the NCAACG was impressive. I like his vision, his feet and his ability to throw the deep ball and intermediate passes on the move. He needs grooming, but what better situation is there for him than in Arizona? He wound up at Alabama at the right time...can lightning strike twice?

UDFA-Clay DeBord, T/G---I think this guy is going to find a way to make the team and to be a solid player for the Cardinals. He is tough, smart and dedicated, Likely will have to spend some time on the PS, but with his work ethic, skill and desire, he will climb the ladder.

UDFA-Garrett Swanson, P/K---Not only will he have every opportunity to compete for the punter job, he might be a better option of kickoffs than Catanzaro.

Keim Time Common Themes:

* Looking for Team Captain types---players who have a tremendous passion for the game.

* Treats the draft in a way like a college coach recruiting high school kids---has a physical and mental proto-type for each position and less concerned about previous production and more concerned about what kind of player they can coach up the kid to be.

* Because of Keim's proto-type at each position---he doesn't care where the kid played and he now has a track record of hitting big on small school talents. What Keim has realized is that small school talents can be the bargain deals in the draft because they are available in the mid to late rounds and had these kinds been able to play at some of the power schools they might have been 1st or 2nd rounders.

* Relies very heavily on the trust he has developed with college coaches---as was the case in scouting and drafting Brandon Williams who was highly touted to Keim by Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin and their defensive coordinator (former LSU DC) John Chavis---who knows a little something about CB talent. It was Chavis who begged Sumlin to convert Williams from RB to CB. Thus, if any of you are still reeling about the pick because no one had Williams on the radar as a 3rd round pick---John Chavis was telling Keim and Belichick and every coach or GM who came his way that Brandon Williams could be an outstanding cornerback.

* Keim is extensive in doing his homework. I think he's learned this on the job---and is now making sure of his intel and his background checks.

* Kiem is starting to swing for the fences and he showed in this draft he is willing to take some calculated risks---something the head coach he hired is inclined to do from time to time.

* Plus---what stands out to me about this draft is the intelligence quotient. What Steve Keim is realizing is he really needs to target players who are not only very talented and passionate, but ones who can more readily assimilate mentally into the program and the systems. I don't think it is by sheer coincidence that following some of the issue they had with Jonathan Cooper that the two offensive linemen they drafted this year are smart as whips. Heck, Boehm was offered a full-ride to Missouri in the 8th grade. That's no lie. And Toner is from a small and fairly academic college in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

* This is what I love about Steve Keim---he is always adapting and evolving and learning on the job. Oh and by the way, have you ever heard a GM lay out scouting report of a player as spontaneously and articulately as Steve Keim? His pressers are priceless.
 

MartinD

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Nice write-up, Mitch. While we disagree about the value of this draft -- you love going for the home run, while I'm very aware that home run hitters tend to be the players who most often strike out -- I think you've nailed Keim's thought process.
 

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Mitch--------I sat quietly by during the draft this year, and absolutely marveled at how Keim kept hitting on pick after pick. The obvious thought and consideration and research into each selection was almost mind boggling once you checked into the kid and discovered how much the cards knew about each player taken. You could tell with how Mike Mayock became so enthusiastic about Keim's picks each time one was announced. He would immediately begin to tell about things that only a veteran scout and football insider would know about each player and how that worked for the Cards. I am extremely happy with ALL our picks including the QB taken as a UDFA.
 

Cbus cardsfan

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We'll never know but I think if Kelly was there, he'd have been the pick. Matter of fact, in another pre-draft thread I said if Kelly wasn't there that I hoped the Cards would go with Nkemdiche.

I think they knew what Kelly was/is and relatively clean but had to put a lot more time in on Nkemdiche to make sure they were comfortable taking him.

I do think they had Kelly 1 and Nkemdiche 2 for their hope at 29 though. Otherwise, Myles Jack would likely have been the pick.
 

az jam

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Good work Mitch. I also feel that the Cards where really surprised that Harlan Miller was there in the 6th round. BA had said after they took CB Williams that they were now set at CB which I said to myself "You got to be kidding". However, they couldn't pass on Miller.

I am also high on Coker. This is from Rudy Carpenter who now works out developing qbs for the draft.

Mike Jurecki Retweeted
Rudy Carpenter ‏@rudygcarp12
@mikejurecki Jake is just as good as any QB drafted in the 4th round or later
 

BullheadCardFan

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Good read Mitch

The Cards have really changed the way they go about the draft. We are in a position now to swing for the fences with some of these picks. If most of them work out we are way ahead in what can use to fill in the holes on the roster. I am learning to have faith in SK and his draft skills.
 

Cardiac

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Good write up Mitch. I will offer a counter to your theory on how the QB's not be drafted played out. It was a BASK smoke screen from the beginning as they never planned on taking a QB in this draft. Obviously we have a deep roster there were some big holes and QB was not one of them. Have teams thinking we are looking at QB's so they take one before it's our pick or trade up or back to be in position thus allowing other players to fall to us.

If I would have to put money down on a bet I would pick my theory but not a lot because yours makes as much sense.

I think another thought I pulled from your post is that the 120 board is set up with a ton of need factored in. I think that's how SK can claim they didn't reach and it was fortunate how they filled needs by staying true to their board.
 

az jam

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Good write up Mitch. I will offer a counter to your theory on how the QB's not be drafted played out. It was a BASK smoke screen from the beginning as they never planned on taking a QB in this draft. Obviously we have a deep roster there were some big holes and QB was not one of them. Have teams thinking we are looking at QB's so they take one before it's our pick or trade up or back to be in position thus allowing other players to fall to us.

If I would have to put money down on a bet I would pick my theory but not a lot because yours makes as much sense.

I think there is some truth to what you are suggesting. However, I feel that there were some qbs that they had interest. If they really wanted one they could have traded up to get him which they never did.
 

Cardiac

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I think there is some truth to what you are suggesting. However, I feel that there were some qbs that they had interest. If they really wanted one they could have traded up to get him which they never did.

Typically how many quality QB's come out each year, at best 1. I would hope that BASK value their draft picks more than thinking well this guy would be fine if he is available at pick 120 and this one at 156 and this one at 170. Yes the draft is a crap shoot but picking a franchise QB like this would be a crap fest IMO. Find one you love and go get him or just say no to wasting a draft pick.

So I agree if they had one they really wanted they would have traded up to get him.
 

Garthshort

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Mitch, some of your best work. Cbus made a good point that Kelly might have been the pick if he were available at #29. However, if you ask yourself, would you rather have Robert and Boehm or Kelly and another DT, who was available in the fourth round, I think I like the way the Draft turned out.
 
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Mitch

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Mitch, some of your best work. Cbus made a good point that Kelly might have been the pick if he were available at #29. However, if you ask yourself, would you rather have Robert and Boehm or Kelly and another DT, who was available in the fourth round, I think I like the way the Draft turned out.

I agree with you, Garth...which is why, because Steve Keim loved Boehm and the drop-off in DT pass rushers from #29 to #92 was monumental, the best combo was to take the DT 1st and then draft Boehm in Rd. 4.

I think the same about CB Brandon Williams because what other CBs his size in this draft ran 4.38 40s? The combination of length and speed is what Keim wanted and the cupboard at #92 was getting bare.
 

juza76

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I agree with you, Garth...which is why, because Steve Keim loved Boehm and the drop-off in DT pass rushers from #29 to #92 was monumental, the best combo was to take the DT 1st and then draft Boehm in Rd. 4.

I think the same about CB Brandon Williams because what other CBs his size in this draft ran 4.38 40s? The combination of length and speed is what Keim wanted and the cupboard at #92 was getting bare.

All that glitters ain't gold

brandon williams has just 1 year of experience with a new position
his numbers were not impressive(stats),i read he allowed some big plays
he is a project
u cant draft a project in round 3 ,period
 

GoldGloveschmidt

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All that glitters ain't gold

brandon williams has just 1 year of experience with a new position
his numbers were not impressive(stats),i read he allowed some big plays
he is a project
u cant draft a project in round 3 ,period

You can't. Cause you're not a GM.

Keim can. :cheers:
 

pinetopred

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All that glitters ain't gold

brandon williams has just 1 year of experience with a new position
his numbers were not impressive(stats),i read he allowed some big plays
he is a project
u cant draft a project in round 3 ,period

ALL Kid's coming from the college game are projects IMO., so why does it matter what round the guy gets picked. If we hit on 3 or 4 of these picks does it matter which ones hit no in 3 yrs we can discuss this draft intelligently until then it's a guess JMO
 
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Mitch

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All that glitters ain't gold

brandon williams has just 1 year of experience with a new position
his numbers were not impressive(stats),i read he allowed some big plays
he is a project
u cant draft a project in round 3 ,period

You can when one of the best college defensive coordinators who has had a history of developing NFL CBs informs your GM and HC that the kid is going to be outstanding, in addition to lauding the kid's leadership as captain.
 

az jam

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ALL Kid's coming from the college game are projects IMO., so why does it matter what round the guy gets picked. If we hit on 3 or 4 of these picks does it matter which ones hit no in 3 yrs we can discuss this draft intelligently until then it's a guess JMO

Absolutely. Goff & Wentz, the first two pick, have a major learning and development workload ahead of them before they are really productive.
 

Cbus cardsfan

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All that glitters ain't gold

brandon williams has just 1 year of experience with a new position
his numbers were not impressive(stats),i read he allowed some big plays
he is a project
u cant draft a project in round 3 ,period
Huh, the Eagles and Rams just drafted projects 1 and 2 overall. The Cards drafted a project in Humphries last year.
 

juza76

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Huh, the Eagles and Rams just drafted projects 1 and 2 overall. The Cards drafted a project in Humphries last year.

all of them are projects
but can we say he is a super project?
very raw,with little experience ina position usually deep
there were better options there
anyway
its no risky no biscuit
 

b8rtm8nn

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all of them are projects
but can we say he is a super project?
very raw,with little experience ina position usually deep
there were better options there
anyway
its no risky no biscuit

I remember Jamell Fleming in the third round, who would have been the 'safe' pick, but he made it a little over a year and bounced around before finally sticking with the Chiefs. Everything is a risk, you take the one you feel best about.
 
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Mitch

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I remember Jamell Fleming in the third round, who would have been the 'safe' pick, but he made it a little over a year and bounced around before finally sticking with the Chiefs. Everything is a risk, you take the one you feel best about.

Excellent example, b8rt. And the way the college game is being played today, the pro coaches really have to coach every player from scratch. This is why BA calls his coaches "teachers." Sometimes, when converting a college player to a new position in the pros, it really helps the player to learn the fundamentals and techniques from a pro---then it is lots of reps and developing muscle memory.
 

Cardiac

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5 or 6 QB's in the past 20 yrs drafted after the 2nd rd have had 3 or more years of good results. Brady, Hasslesback, Wilson, Bulger, and I forget the other 1 or 2. That's why drafting QB's later in the draft is playing the lottery, horrible odds to hit on one.

In todays NFL if you don't have a franchise QB then your team is irrelevant. Doesn't matter how good the players are that you did get to draft because you kept your picks (Eagles, Rams) because you don't have a QB on your team.

How did the Rams do after getting all those extra picks in the RG3 trade. They can't get above 8-8 because they didn't have a legit QB. They thought they did in Bradford but he's a pouty China doll that can't stay on the field.

Maybe Goff and Wentz will bust or maybe they won't but if they bust those teams are still in the same sucky place because they don't have a legit QB. Now if either or both are legit then those teams will be contenders sooner than later.

Cowboys could only win 4 games last year after winning 12 the year before. The major reason was their QB was hurt for 11 or 12 of those losses. This year they will win the NFCE if Romo and Elliot stays healthy.

Cards went to the SB and won a playoff game the next year and then Warner retires and we all know that story.

Texans actually got into the playoffs without a QB but got bounced immediately. They got into the playoffs because their division was horrible. The other 3 teams have very young legit QB's who will start to come on so the Texans spent a ton of money for a QB who has a chance to be a legit QB.

The examples can go on and on but the basic point is without a legit QB you are wasting your time and the best chance to get that QB (by a huge margin) is to get them at the top of rd 1.
 
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5 or 6 QB's in the past 20 yrs drafted after the 2nd rd have had 3 or more years of good results. Brady, Hasslesback, Wilson, Bulger, and I forget the other 1 or 2. That's why drafting QB's later in the draft is playing the lottery, horrible odds to hit on one.

In todays NFL if you don't have a franchise QB then your team is irrelevant. Doesn't matter how good the players are that you did get to draft because you kept your picks (Eagles, Rams) because you don't have a QB on your team.

How did the Rams do after getting all those extra picks in the RG3 trade. They can't get above 8-8 because they didn't have a legit QB. They thought they did in Bradford but he's a pouty China doll that can't stay on the field.

Maybe Goff and Wentz will bust or maybe they won't but if they bust those teams are still in the same sucky place because the don't have a legit QB. Now if either or both are legit then those teams will be contenders sooner than later.

Cowboys could only win 4 games last year after winning 12 the year before. The major reason was their QB was hurt for 11 or 12 of those losses. This year they will win the NFCE if Romo and Elliot stays healthy.

Cards went to the SB and won a playoff game the next year and then Warner retires and we all know that story.

Texans actually got into the playoffs without a QB but got bounced immediately. They got into the playoffs because there division was horrible. The other 3 teams have very young legit QB's who will start to come on so the Texans spent a ton of money for a QB who has a chance to be a legit QB.

The examples can go on and on but the basic point is without a legit QB you are wasting your time and the best chance to get that QB (by a huge margin) is to get them at the top of rd 1.

Good post Cardiac.
 

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