Speculation vs. Reality vs. False "Plans"

RugbyMuffin

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If you have not stopped by the Arizona Cardinals official site, I would recommend it. The blog entries based on the Combine interviews lets loose some news torwards the Cardinals plans for free agency, which also effects the draft.

For those poor souls that "enjoy" looking over rosters and concocting offseason plans, and how to build a roster these notes, and the information given through the combine help you shape your plan.

#1 - New NFL TV contract in 2014. The cap will be increases very little before then, and expectation are that when the new TV deal is reached there will be a spike in the cap number. The players know this, and obviously want to try and make the best of the increased cap number. A smart GM would still be able to sign a player, and have some clause to make sure that a player doesn't feel he is "loosing out" in 2014.

#2 - Still haven't signed Campbell. While this is damaging when it comes to time spent, and being ready for free agency, Campbell is not going anywhere. He will be franchised no doubt. My biggest problem is it puts the Cardinals, who I already feel are at a disadvantage in free agency for their snail like pace, at an even greater disadvantage since the tag will eat up cap space, and waste time up till the final day the tag can be used.

#3 - Richard Marshall has been named a priority. I like this, and feel it means nothing towards the draft if he is signed. As for Marshall's worth, think of it this way. He is going to be the 5th DB in the game 95% of the time if he stays in AZ. He is the "3rd safety, or the 3rd CB". With the amount the Cardinals play the 2-4-5, he will get as much or even more snaps than Dan Williams, IMO.

#4 - The Cardinals want Levi Brown back, long term, BUT at the right price.

I take it this way, the Cardinals want Levi back but at the right price. So, I would give Levi Brown a 40-60 chance of coming back. Though this is a Rod Graves "plan", you must realize Graves is a politician, and his plans come to light about as much as your local politician plans, so not too much. Furthermore, if Levi Brown tests the market I could see a team overpaying him , Dallas, Washington, etc. This is all great news, but what constantly enters my mind every single time I think of Levi Brown is, "Worst tackle in the league over the last 3 years." Per statistics, and general play there are free agents that are upgrades to Brown. They are not world beaters, they are not lock down LT's but they are upgrades. Jared Gaither, Jeff Backus, Matt Starks. Even if the Cardinals bring Brown back as RT, is he going to be better then a Tria Essex, or a promising prospect like King Dunlap who will be available ?

Levi Brown. So, what would I do if someone said, "He is coming back whether you like it or not, so what would your plan be?"

Fine. Sign him to a 5 year contract with a final year that brings both parties back to the table. In four years Levi Brown will be 31 years old.

Jeremy Bridges has 1 year on his contract, and is 31 years old.

The Cardinals are going to draft some offensive linemen this draft. If they sign Brown they can leave themselves in a position to be in a psuedo-free position to not be drafting for need. To be clear they need an offensive linemen, but now the need is not at a point where, not only is there a need for an offensive linemen, but he has to be a hit, and has to be able to play ASAP.

Put Brown at LT and Bridges at RT, and hopefully things in the draft go well enough that your OT off the bench will be the predecessor at LT in a year or so. Optimally, the Cardinals draft a player that takes over Bridges spot by the end of next year.
 
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WildBB

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Yeah, it should be a given that the Cards, even if they re-sign Levi, will add some more talent along the tackle spots. Draft or FA.

Levi, another vet and a rookie (in the 3rd rd) . Or one vet and two rookies (3rd and later).
 

JeffGollin

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Going into the season with Levi at LT and Bridges at RT is not good enough. We need an upgrade now!
Agree.

Granted, Wiz's "we want Levi back" comments may - reading between the lines - be a concession that there are no affordable LT's available on the open market and it would be risky to either (1) draft for need or (2) play a rook even if we did draft an OT.

But it still leaves me terrified that Wiz, Russ and Rod are once again talking themselves into believing we can get by without a major overhaul of the O-line.

If we were to draft a LT (like Martin or a couple of others whom we could trust to step in at LT, with Levi moving to the right side), I could live with that.

But I'm still nervous we're not going to do anything.
 

Crazy Canuck

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P.S. King Dunlap is such a promising tackle that they moved this 6'8" behemoth to guard.
 

kerouac9

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Just a fact-check--I think late in the year Marshall was the #2 cornerback most of the time. It went under the radar, but I'm fairly sure that the Cards' late-season defensive resurgence coincided with A.J. Jefferson being banished from the starting lineup in favor of Marshall.

When the Cards went to nickel packages, they'd put Jefferson on the edge, where quarterbacks would immediately identify him and then pick him apart.
 
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RugbyMuffin

RugbyMuffin

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P.S. King Dunlap is such a promising tackle that they moved this 6'8" behemoth to guard.

I calls em like I see em. Even if it is "wrong", the guy played RT, LT, and OG for the Eagles, and didn't do too bad. He is better than Levi Brown, or Brandon Keith at RT, in my very humble opinion.

I live in Eagle country, I have watched the guy play.

..............................................................then to think of it I said the SAME THING about Stewart Bradley, so that is definitely working against me.

Regardless that is one of the players I am rooting for to become a Cardinal.
 
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RugbyMuffin

RugbyMuffin

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Just a fact-check--I think late in the year Marshall was the #2 cornerback most of the time. It went under the radar, but I'm fairly sure that the Cards' late-season defensive resurgence coincided with A.J. Jefferson being banished from the starting lineup in favor of Marshall.

When the Cards went to nickel packages, they'd put Jefferson on the edge, where quarterbacks would immediately identify him and then pick him apart.

At least the Cardinals have the "potential" upgrade with Toler coming back next year. Jefferson goes to dime packages, and Michael Adams can concentrate on special teams.

Sounds good on paper.
 
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RugbyMuffin

RugbyMuffin

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I'd still go:

1. Decastro
3. Massie
5. Potter or Datko

If DeCastro is as good a guard as they say, or as it seems, IMO he is the guy you pick.

At this point the pick would have to be a elite type talent at another position, or the best offensive linemen available at that spot.


1.Colts - Luck
2.Browns- RGIII
3.Vikings- Kalil
4.Rams- Blackmon
5.Buccaneers- Morris Claiborne
6.Redskins- ???? OL ????Reiff/Martin/Adams/Coples
7.Jaguars- Defense Pass Rush
8.Dolphins- ???? OL ???? Reiff/Martin/Adams
9.Panthers- ???? OL ???? Reiff/Martin/Adams
10.Bills- ???? OL ???? Reiff/Martin/Adams/Merclius
11.Chiefs- ???? OL ???? DeCastro/Richardson
12.Seahawks- Best Defensive Player available.
13.Cardinals - DeCastro/Reiff/Martin/BPA at defense (CB, OLB, ILB,S)
 

overseascardfan

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The reality is that the 2 biggest needs for ARZ are OT upgrades and a "legit" pass rusher and this is the worst FA class for both positions in recent memory.

Speculation is will guys like Cliff Avril & Kamerion Wimbley hit the market? Avril will be tagged so it comes down to will Wimbley be cut and will ARZ be able to sign him? If we get Wimbley, I can see us taking a Reiff, Martin or to my dismay DeCastro. The reason I am not for DeCastro is that I feel early first rounders need to be impact guys and the best interior lineman in the NFL were not taken in Round 1. Plus I am on the Ben Grubbs FA bandwagon.

So if ARZ cannot land Wimbley I feel they need to go for either Upshaw or Perry and look for young under the radar FA OT's and pick one up later in the draft. ARZ can get the players they need, they will have the cap space but just need to realize that the OL needs to be addressed no matter what any of the coaches or management think. I have a feeling they will no doubt target a pass rusher either in FA or the draft but will have to wait and see what develops.
 

Garthshort

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Guys make it sound that selecting an OT is like going to the supermarket:
"I'll have an OT, without too much fat, and please remember I can't afford filet mignon, so I guess I'll take the chuck steak and hope it's chewable."
 

joeshmo

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Reality - Cards spent the 4th most amount of cash on players last year. Don't let the whole 7 mill in cap space thing fool. Using cap numbers as proof that a team is or isn't spending is useless and false.

Speculation - Cards are not afraid to be in the top 5 in salary spent again if the opportunities present themselves.
 
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Shane

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Reality - Cards spent the 4th most amount of cash on players last year. Don't let the whole 7 mill in cap space thing fool. Using cap numbers as proof that a team is or isn't spending is useless and false.

Speculation - Cards are not afraid to be in the top 5 again if the opportunities present themselves.

Can you PM this to Cheesebeef?
 

kerouac9

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Reality - Cards spent the 4th most amount of cash on players last year. Don't let the whole 7 mill in cap space thing fool. Using cap numbers as proof that a team is or isn't spending is useless and false.

Speculation - Cards are not afraid to be in the top 5 again if the opportunities present themselves.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

Duckjake

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Reality - Cards spent the 4th most amount of cash on players last year. Don't let the whole 7 mill in cap space thing fool. Using cap numbers as proof that a team is or isn't spending is useless and false.

Speculation - Cards are not afraid to be in the top 5 again if the opportunities present themselves.

How much of that was salary vs lump sum payments?

I see the Cards spending money over the course of the season, big money. But sadly they spend much of it on the wrong players.

Top 5 in money spent or trading up to the top 5 in the draft?
 

Cheesebeef

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Can you PM this to Cheesebeef?

that's great and all, but if there's space under the cap, it means YOU CAN STILL UPGRADE YOUR TEAM IF THERE ARE GLARING HOLES. Nothing about what Joe said changes that fact and after sitting on 30 million bucks last year, when you still have glaring holes on your team and aren't doing everything you can to fill them, that's bs to me.

(edit: that didn't need to be in all caps, but i'm too lazy to rewrite it).
 
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joeshmo

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How much of that was salary vs lump sum payments?

Meaning total cash paid in player salary, bonuses, and so on. If a player got a check in 2011 it counted towards that ranking.

The other top 5 were Carolina, Indy, Pitt, and Oak.
 

Crazy Canuck

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that's great and all, but if there's space under the cap, it means YOU CAN STILL UPGRADE YOUR TEAM IF THERE ARE GLARING HOLES. Nothing about what Joe said changes that fact and after sitting on 30 million bucks last year, when you still have glaring holes on your team and aren't doing everything you can to fill them, that's bs to me.

(edit: that didn't need to be in all caps, but i'm too lazy to rewrite it).

???

$30M under the CAP is the generally accepted figure for the 2010 season when the majority of teams were saving money in fear of a 2011 work stoppage. This amount hardly lead the league. At the end of 2011 the Cards were under by $7M as you should know as you often harped on it. However, all teams are allowed to carryover this leftover to 2012. That $7M from last season covers Kolb's roster bonus.
 

joeshmo

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that's great and all, but if there's space under the cap, it means YOU CAN STILL UPGRADE YOUR TEAM IF THERE ARE GLARING HOLES. Nothing about what Joe said changes that fact and after sitting on 30 million bucks last year, when you still have glaring holes on your team and aren't doing everything you can to fill them, that's bs to me.

(edit: that didn't need to be in all caps, but i'm too lazy to rewrite it).

You can have zero in cap space and still upgrade your team. That is how easy it is to get around the cap. It is a useless number considering all the loop holes around it. If a team wants to do it they can find a way around it to do it. Cap numbers is completely fake accounting.

Case in point. Depending on how the accounting was done we could have only had 1 mill left in cap space yet spent 20 mill less in total player salary. Thus completely duping you into believing that we actually used our money to upgrade the best we could when in reality we didn't. To much creative accounting in the cap to use it as anywhere close to a barometer.

Salary spent is all that matters and the Cards spent more then 28 other teams last year trying to improve.
 
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joeshmo

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???

$30M under the CAP is the generally accepted figure for the 2010 season when the majority of teams were saving money in fear of a 2011 work stoppage. This amount hardly lead the league. At the end of 2011 the Cards were under by $7M as you should know as you often harped on it. However, all teams are allowed to carryover this leftover to 2012. That $7M from last season covers Kolb's roster bonus.

Not even I will defend the 2010 season. Again using cap figures is bogus and fake because it does not contain any context. True salary spent does contain context. And the context was in 2010 we were in the bottom 5 in salary spent that year and the FO deserves all the flake they should get for that.

The opposite is also true, if they are in the top 5 they should also be given lots of kudo's.

Flake where it is deserved and kudo's where it is deserved. Fair is fair. That is all I am trying to bring up.
 

Crazy Canuck

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Not even I will defend the 2010 season. Again using cap figures is bogus and fake because it does not contain any context. True salary spent does contain context. And the context was in 2010 we were in the bottom 5 in salary spent that year and the FO deserves all the flake they should get for that.

The opposite is also true, if they are in the top 5 they should also be given lots of kudo's.

Flake where it is deserved and kudo's where it is deserved. Fair is fair. That is all I am trying to bring up.

I'm not defending 2010, but Cheese was confusing that year with 2011.

A site you might like to review:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/
 

kerouac9

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Not even I will defend the 2010 season. Again using cap figures is bogus and fake because it does not contain any context. True salary spent does contain context. And the context was in 2010 we were in the bottom 5 in salary spent that year and the FO deserves all the flake they should get for that.

The opposite is also true, if they are in the top 5 they should also be given lots of kudo's.

Flake where it is deserved and kudo's where it is deserved. Fair is fair. That is all I am trying to bring up.

Couldn't you just as easily argue that the Cards were regressing to
The mean last season, then? I they were going to make the mildest argument that they were going to try harder after a 5-11 year they were going to have to spend a ton of money.

Of course, when you re-sign your best player and sign a quarterback OF COURSE you're going to be at the top of the league in payroll.

Even outside the bounds of cap accounting, the Cards failed to make obvious personnel moves to improve their roster once the season began.
 

Duckjake

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Meaning total cash paid in player salary, bonuses, and so on. If a player got a check in 2011 it counted towards that ranking.

The other top 5 were Carolina, Indy, Pitt, and Oak.

I understand but what I wanted to know was how much was cash that had to be paid when the contract was signed and how much was paid in salary over the course of the season. Huge difference to a team like Arizona whose owner doesn't have a .com or whatever to support him or her.

Let me know if I am off base on this: using the franchise tag at 8.5 million equals 17 payments of around $500k that don't start until September. On the other hand an 8.5 million signing bonus equals one immediate payment of $8.5 million. Tremendous difference in regards to cash flow.
 
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