GAME OF MIDWEEK
NY Jets at Washington. To borrow a line from pregame entertainer Britney Spears, Redskins owner Daniel Snyder was "not that innocent" this offseason in shelling out the cash to loot the Jets' roster to get a top wide receiver (Laveranues Coles), top kick returner (Chad Morton), top kicker (John Hall) and top interior lineman (guard Randy Thomas).
That has left Herman Edwards' gang green with Hulk-like anger to make Thursday's season opener "NFL Payback Live." If the Jets want to win this game, however, they must check their emotions at the door and balance their offense without Coles and the injured Chad Pennington.
The latter will be a tough task. Vinny Testaverde's struggles in the West Coast offense is what made Pennington the starter last season, and now he must connect with a new top wideout, Curtis Conway. Curtis Martin is the best option against the Redskins' questionable defensive line, but without a consistent passing game vs. the Redskins' top corners, Washington can stack the box.
The Redskins' offense has much more speed than last season with Coles on the perimeter and another free-agent pickup, Trung Canidate, flying out of the backfield. That gives them a nice edge over the Jets' slower back seven.
The visitors are known as the Jets, but the hosts are in better position to take off under Steve Spurrier in Week 1. Redskins 20, Jets 17.
NFC GAME OF THE WEEK
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia. There is only one way to beat the Bucs' defense, and before last year's NFC championship game loss, the Eagles had figured it out four consecutive times.
It's easier said than done, but it's all about pounding the ball inside, wearing down the Bucs' interior line and negating what they do best -- covering all over the field and rushing the passer with their front four.
When the Eagles won this matchup in Week 7 last season, Duce Staley rushed 24 times for 152 yards. When they lost to end their playoff run, he had only 13 carries for 58 yards.
The Eagles will go back to what worked with Staley and Correll Buckhalter, which will take pressure off Donovan McNabb against a defense that knows how to contain mobile quarterbacks with its outside speed. That combined with their adrenaline from playing the Lincoln Financial Field opener in primetime, will nudge them ahead in the expected defensive struggle. Eagles 16, Bucs 14.
AFC GAME OF THE WEEK
Oakland at Tennessee. The Titans got lit up in two games 93-49 against the Raiders last season, including a 41-24 defeat in the AFC championship game. The big problem was that the Raiders could exploit the Titans' secondary while facing no pass rush.
The Titans' nickel package is improved with rookie Andre Woolfolk and they should put more heat on Rich Gannon with a healthier Jevon Kearse playing opposite Kevin Carter. Also look for a heavier dose of Eddie George and a focused ball-control approach with Steve McNair and the short passing game to help keep Gannon off the field.
The Titans also perform much better all-around at home and far away from that other Coliseum -- Oakland played hosts in both of the teams' previous two meetings. McNair will lead Tennessee to its usual style of win -- more gritty than pretty. Titans 21, Raiders 20.
SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK
New Orleans at Seattle. No offense was more supersonic than the Seahawks' in the last month of last season. Matt Hasselbeck busted out as a prolific passer throwing it everywhere to wide receivers Koren Robinson and Darrell Jackson, giving Shaun Alexander plenty of room to run.
The Saints have similar explosiveness within the West Coast, with Aaron Brooks, Joe Horn, Donte' Stallworth and Deuce McAllister. And because it's early in the season, all their offensive principals will be at full speed.
This is when football becomes like basketball -- these teams will trade touchdowns like the Sonics and Hornets running down the floor. Look for the home team to have enough left in the tank to hit the game-winning shot, because Robinson and Jackson will outlast and wear out the Saints' older corners. Seahawks 41, Saints 31.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati over Denver. The last time the Broncos visited Cincy in 2000, Corey Dillon broke the record for single-game rushing with a 278-yard performance. That won't happen again, because the Broncos' run defense -- anchored by linebackers Ian Gold, Al Wilson, and John Mobley -- is one of the league's best.
This time, the Bengals can successfully go after the Broncos' current defensive weakness -- a young up-and-down secondary -- by using playmaking wide receivers Chad Johnson and Peter Warrick. It may take a few regular-season games for new Broncos quarterback Jake Plummer to settle in, while counterpart Jon Kitna will continue to be comfortable in offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski's system. Most Sundays won't be happy for Marvin Lewis, but his debut will be. Bengals 27, Broncos 26.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
San Francisco over Chicago. The last time the Bears visited San Fran in 2000, Terrell Owens broke the record for single-game receptions with 20 for 283 yards. Unfortunately for the Bears, considering the state of their defense beyond Brian Urlacher, there's no guarantee that Owens won't do it again.
Owens' reception and yardage totals should shoot up in 2003, with new 49ers coach Dennis Erickson committed to using Owens for more big plays. Questions about the health of quarterback Jeff Garcia can be put to rest for at least a week, because the Bears' Rosevelt Colvin-less pass rush won't do much to keep him from consistently finding Owens downfield. 49ers 27, Bears 16.
REST OF THE WEEK
New England at Buffalo. The Bills' passing game, led by former Patriot Drew Bledsoe, again will hit snags against Bill Belichick's scheming, but a commitment to running Travis Henry will trump whatever the Pats get on the ground with former Bill Antowain Smith and their committee approach. Bills 24, Patriots 20.
Jacksonville at Carolina. Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio worked to make the Panthers' defense an elite unit last season. Now he will get a first-hand look and the talent and handiwork he left behind when his old team stuffs his new team. Panthers 13, Jaguars 10.
Indianapolis at Cleveland. Call this unofficial Shootout of the Week 2 -- these teams are mirror images of each other, as Bruce Arians, who made his mark as Peyton Manning's quarterback coach, calls the shots for Kelly Holcomb and William Green. Holcomb and Green will help the Browns match what Manning, Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James do and clip Indy at the tape. Browns 31, Colts 27.
Arizona at Detroit. Even this matchup has marquee-worthy material, as Emmitt Smith and Steve Mariucci make their respective debuts in the Cardinals' backfield and on the Lions' sidelines. Mariucci will feel fine against a familiar former NFC West foe at Ford Field while the Cards field another Pinto of a team. Lions 23, Cardinals 16.
Minnesota at Green Bay. A smarter, more poised Daunte Culpepper will make this game interesting late, but the Packers will be eager to get back on track at Lambeau after their first-ever postseason loss there and Brett Favre will make sure they rebound with a bang. Packers 28, Vikings 24.
San Diego at Kansas City. LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Priest Holmes will be a wash, so it will come down to each team's passing games, and Trent Green and the Chiefs' deeper receiving corps will take full advantage of working against the Chargers' inexperience at linebacker and cornerback. Chiefs 34, Chargers 21.
Houston at Miami. The Texans will need to stack the box, stuff Ricky Williams and rely on their veteran corners if they are to have any shot at this game, but their young offense might give up more points to the Dolphins' turnover-minded defense than it will score on it. Dolphins 20, Texans 6.
St. Louis at New York Giants. While the Rams waited to have Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk both back completely healthy again, several teams have put together equally fun and potent offenses of their own. The Giants have done so with their versatile passing game, and Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey and Amani Toomer will thrive against the Rams' back seven. Giants 24, Rams 21.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh. These top two contenders for the AFC North title won't meet again until a night game in Week 17, so this game is crucial in the division race. The Steelers have the more experienced 3-4 even without Joey Porter and the more loaded offense to sneak away from Brian Billick's always-tough team. Steelers 21, Ravens 19.
Atlanta at Dallas. Doug Johnson isn't Michael Vick, but he still is a better option than Quincy Carter. Dan Reeves also will use his running game with T.J. Duckett and Warrick Dunn to pull out a defensive battle and spoil Bill Parcells' Big D debut. Falcons 20, Cowboys 14.
STATS OF THE WEEK
The best thing about picking games for Week 1 is not having the season's past blemishes haunting my prognostication's progress. I'm enjoying that while I can -- next week I'll be back to play damage control.
NY Jets at Washington. To borrow a line from pregame entertainer Britney Spears, Redskins owner Daniel Snyder was "not that innocent" this offseason in shelling out the cash to loot the Jets' roster to get a top wide receiver (Laveranues Coles), top kick returner (Chad Morton), top kicker (John Hall) and top interior lineman (guard Randy Thomas).
That has left Herman Edwards' gang green with Hulk-like anger to make Thursday's season opener "NFL Payback Live." If the Jets want to win this game, however, they must check their emotions at the door and balance their offense without Coles and the injured Chad Pennington.
The latter will be a tough task. Vinny Testaverde's struggles in the West Coast offense is what made Pennington the starter last season, and now he must connect with a new top wideout, Curtis Conway. Curtis Martin is the best option against the Redskins' questionable defensive line, but without a consistent passing game vs. the Redskins' top corners, Washington can stack the box.
The Redskins' offense has much more speed than last season with Coles on the perimeter and another free-agent pickup, Trung Canidate, flying out of the backfield. That gives them a nice edge over the Jets' slower back seven.
The visitors are known as the Jets, but the hosts are in better position to take off under Steve Spurrier in Week 1. Redskins 20, Jets 17.
NFC GAME OF THE WEEK
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia. There is only one way to beat the Bucs' defense, and before last year's NFC championship game loss, the Eagles had figured it out four consecutive times.
It's easier said than done, but it's all about pounding the ball inside, wearing down the Bucs' interior line and negating what they do best -- covering all over the field and rushing the passer with their front four.
When the Eagles won this matchup in Week 7 last season, Duce Staley rushed 24 times for 152 yards. When they lost to end their playoff run, he had only 13 carries for 58 yards.
The Eagles will go back to what worked with Staley and Correll Buckhalter, which will take pressure off Donovan McNabb against a defense that knows how to contain mobile quarterbacks with its outside speed. That combined with their adrenaline from playing the Lincoln Financial Field opener in primetime, will nudge them ahead in the expected defensive struggle. Eagles 16, Bucs 14.
AFC GAME OF THE WEEK
Oakland at Tennessee. The Titans got lit up in two games 93-49 against the Raiders last season, including a 41-24 defeat in the AFC championship game. The big problem was that the Raiders could exploit the Titans' secondary while facing no pass rush.
The Titans' nickel package is improved with rookie Andre Woolfolk and they should put more heat on Rich Gannon with a healthier Jevon Kearse playing opposite Kevin Carter. Also look for a heavier dose of Eddie George and a focused ball-control approach with Steve McNair and the short passing game to help keep Gannon off the field.
The Titans also perform much better all-around at home and far away from that other Coliseum -- Oakland played hosts in both of the teams' previous two meetings. McNair will lead Tennessee to its usual style of win -- more gritty than pretty. Titans 21, Raiders 20.
SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK
New Orleans at Seattle. No offense was more supersonic than the Seahawks' in the last month of last season. Matt Hasselbeck busted out as a prolific passer throwing it everywhere to wide receivers Koren Robinson and Darrell Jackson, giving Shaun Alexander plenty of room to run.
The Saints have similar explosiveness within the West Coast, with Aaron Brooks, Joe Horn, Donte' Stallworth and Deuce McAllister. And because it's early in the season, all their offensive principals will be at full speed.
This is when football becomes like basketball -- these teams will trade touchdowns like the Sonics and Hornets running down the floor. Look for the home team to have enough left in the tank to hit the game-winning shot, because Robinson and Jackson will outlast and wear out the Saints' older corners. Seahawks 41, Saints 31.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati over Denver. The last time the Broncos visited Cincy in 2000, Corey Dillon broke the record for single-game rushing with a 278-yard performance. That won't happen again, because the Broncos' run defense -- anchored by linebackers Ian Gold, Al Wilson, and John Mobley -- is one of the league's best.
This time, the Bengals can successfully go after the Broncos' current defensive weakness -- a young up-and-down secondary -- by using playmaking wide receivers Chad Johnson and Peter Warrick. It may take a few regular-season games for new Broncos quarterback Jake Plummer to settle in, while counterpart Jon Kitna will continue to be comfortable in offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski's system. Most Sundays won't be happy for Marvin Lewis, but his debut will be. Bengals 27, Broncos 26.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
San Francisco over Chicago. The last time the Bears visited San Fran in 2000, Terrell Owens broke the record for single-game receptions with 20 for 283 yards. Unfortunately for the Bears, considering the state of their defense beyond Brian Urlacher, there's no guarantee that Owens won't do it again.
Owens' reception and yardage totals should shoot up in 2003, with new 49ers coach Dennis Erickson committed to using Owens for more big plays. Questions about the health of quarterback Jeff Garcia can be put to rest for at least a week, because the Bears' Rosevelt Colvin-less pass rush won't do much to keep him from consistently finding Owens downfield. 49ers 27, Bears 16.
REST OF THE WEEK
New England at Buffalo. The Bills' passing game, led by former Patriot Drew Bledsoe, again will hit snags against Bill Belichick's scheming, but a commitment to running Travis Henry will trump whatever the Pats get on the ground with former Bill Antowain Smith and their committee approach. Bills 24, Patriots 20.
Jacksonville at Carolina. Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio worked to make the Panthers' defense an elite unit last season. Now he will get a first-hand look and the talent and handiwork he left behind when his old team stuffs his new team. Panthers 13, Jaguars 10.
Indianapolis at Cleveland. Call this unofficial Shootout of the Week 2 -- these teams are mirror images of each other, as Bruce Arians, who made his mark as Peyton Manning's quarterback coach, calls the shots for Kelly Holcomb and William Green. Holcomb and Green will help the Browns match what Manning, Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James do and clip Indy at the tape. Browns 31, Colts 27.
Arizona at Detroit. Even this matchup has marquee-worthy material, as Emmitt Smith and Steve Mariucci make their respective debuts in the Cardinals' backfield and on the Lions' sidelines. Mariucci will feel fine against a familiar former NFC West foe at Ford Field while the Cards field another Pinto of a team. Lions 23, Cardinals 16.
Minnesota at Green Bay. A smarter, more poised Daunte Culpepper will make this game interesting late, but the Packers will be eager to get back on track at Lambeau after their first-ever postseason loss there and Brett Favre will make sure they rebound with a bang. Packers 28, Vikings 24.
San Diego at Kansas City. LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Priest Holmes will be a wash, so it will come down to each team's passing games, and Trent Green and the Chiefs' deeper receiving corps will take full advantage of working against the Chargers' inexperience at linebacker and cornerback. Chiefs 34, Chargers 21.
Houston at Miami. The Texans will need to stack the box, stuff Ricky Williams and rely on their veteran corners if they are to have any shot at this game, but their young offense might give up more points to the Dolphins' turnover-minded defense than it will score on it. Dolphins 20, Texans 6.
St. Louis at New York Giants. While the Rams waited to have Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk both back completely healthy again, several teams have put together equally fun and potent offenses of their own. The Giants have done so with their versatile passing game, and Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey and Amani Toomer will thrive against the Rams' back seven. Giants 24, Rams 21.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh. These top two contenders for the AFC North title won't meet again until a night game in Week 17, so this game is crucial in the division race. The Steelers have the more experienced 3-4 even without Joey Porter and the more loaded offense to sneak away from Brian Billick's always-tough team. Steelers 21, Ravens 19.
Atlanta at Dallas. Doug Johnson isn't Michael Vick, but he still is a better option than Quincy Carter. Dan Reeves also will use his running game with T.J. Duckett and Warrick Dunn to pull out a defensive battle and spoil Bill Parcells' Big D debut. Falcons 20, Cowboys 14.
STATS OF THE WEEK
The best thing about picking games for Week 1 is not having the season's past blemishes haunting my prognostication's progress. I'm enjoying that while I can -- next week I'll be back to play damage control.
