Stacking the Box

[kerouac9]

Very, very cool Sando piece on stacked boxes [insert off-color Kate Upton comment here]:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/100680/stacking-the-box-against-a-loaded-question

It looks like you'll see eight in the box if (a) you have an elite runner or (b) you have an awful passing attack.

Cards were 9th in the NFL in facing stacked boxes last season. We were the only team in the Top 20 who averaged less than 2.5 YPC against the defense.

 

[Darkside]

First, Johnson's average against stacked boxes on 1st and 2nd down is insane compared to everyone else. 7.8 ypc on 41 carries!! That's seriously insane. And Lynch is going to have a big year next year, because Seattle had the highest rate out of any team to face stacked boxes, because teams didn't realize Wilson was a badass at QB. That won't happen this year.

 

[Catfish]

Very, very cool Sando piece on stacked boxes [insert off-color Kate Upton comment here]:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/100680/stacking-the-box-against-a-loaded-question

It looks like you'll see eight in the box if (a) you have an elite runner or (b) you have an awful passing attack.

Cards were 9th in the NFL in facing stacked boxes last season. We were the only team in the Top 20 who averaged less than 2.5 YPC against the defense.

Nice find K-9. Lets hope that we see a significant increase in our YPC this year over last. I would really like to see our running game come to life this year in order to balance the offense a little more.

 

[cardpa]

Interesting to look at. Teams like NE, NO, Ind, NYG, Den who have top notch QBs faced stacked boxes a lot less because defenses had to respect their ability to throw the ball yet none of these teams had what you would call strong running games. Some of them gained very little on the ground when the box was stacked.

Some teams like AZ, Tenn, Car, St.L, Buf, Minn faced stacked boxes more often so was this an effort on the defense to place these teams in 2nd and long so they had a distinct advantage on 3rd down because these teams did not have what you would call excellence at the QB position?

It would have been interesting to see of those stacked boxes how many were on 1st down.

I imagine some of it also had to do with a team's tendency to run on first down. I guess Seat liked to run on 1st down and even with a stacked box did so effectively.

Then you have the weird stuff like Tenn. who gained over 7 YPC against the stacked box yet could only mustard 3.7 YPC when the not facing it. Could this also be a case where if Johnson got pass the front 8 he suddenly had lots of space to run and only 3 defenders left to beat? SF as a team also had a lot of success when facing a stacked box which again may lend itself to the RB breaking pass the initial front only to have more running room once he got into the secondary.

Does this say something about the mindset of the Oline for these teams or the blocking scheme that allowed these teams to dominate upfront against stacked defenses or does it speak to the ability of the RB to pick the correct hole/break tackles and get into the secondary on these runs?

 

[Mulli]

Insert argument about how the Cards should or should not have gone to a predominantly run based offense last year...

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Insert argument about how the Cards should or should not have gone to a predominantly run based offense last year...

You must be registered for see images attach

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[cardpa]

You must be registered for see images attach

You must be registered for see images attach

Rugby, You just had to bring those nightmares back up didn't you!

 

[pacman]

You must be registered for see images attach

You must be registered for see images attach

lol that says it all...

 

[Catfish]

Good arguments Muffin !!!!

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

First, Johnson's average against stacked boxes on 1st and 2nd down is insane compared to everyone else. 7.8 ypc on 41 carries!! That's seriously insane. And Lynch is going to have a big year next year, because Seattle had the highest rate out of any team to face stacked boxes, because teams didn't realize Wilson was a badass at QB. That won't happen this year.

That's because Wilson is not a bad ass QB and will likely see stacked fronts all year again. People are basing Wilson's year on his last game. When you look at his season, he had ZERO 300 yard passing games and passed for under 200 yards in more games than over 200 yards in the regular season, 9 to 7. He's one of, if not the most overrated player in the NFL.

 

[Duckjake]

I don't know if I can buy into this stacking the box stuff. The Cards have had horrendous QB play for the last 3 seasons yet in two of those they averaged more yards per carry than in any season other than 2002 going back probably 25 years. It's more like teams didn't respect our run game so they played 7 back to try to make our WRs, the strength of our team, irrelevant. Knowing CKW wouldn't run the ball, dead last in rushing attempts 4 out of 6 seasons, they were playing pass defense from the opening kick.

I know Washington did that to Warner one year. The announcers were talking about how the Redskins had no respect for the Cards run game so were keeping 7-8 guys back to defend the Defense Destroyers: Warner, Fitz, and Q. I think Edge had almost as many yards per carry that game as Warner had yards per attempt.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Very, very cool Sando piece on stacked boxes [insert off-color Kate Upton comment here]:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/100680/stacking-the-box-against-a-loaded-question

It looks like you'll see eight in the box if (a) you have an elite runner or (b) you have an awful passing attack.

Cards were 9th in the NFL in facing stacked boxes last season. We were the only team in the Top 20 who averaged less than 2.5 YPC against the defense.

I usually can't stand ESPN but I visit their site every day just to check out Sando's NFC West Blog. Love his stuff and the insight he brings to the NFC West teams.

 

[BigRedRage]

I usually can't stand ESPN but I visit their site every day just to check out Sando's NFC West Blog. Love his stuff and the insight he brings to the NFC West teams.

only part of ESPN I visit also. He does ride other teams much more often but I put up with it just for extra cards info.

 

[Totally_Red]

I usually can't stand ESPN but I visit their site every day just to check out Sando's NFC West Blog. Love his stuff and the insight he brings to the NFC West teams.

Sando has good info. A lot of it is re-hash of what MJ and Kent Somers break, but he does wisely use the abundant resources of ESPN to provide some solid information.

 

[MigratingOsprey]

That's because Wilson is not a bad ass QB and will likely see stacked fronts all year again. People are basing Wilson's year on his last game. When you look at his season, he had ZERO 300 yard passing games and passed for under 200 yards in more games than over 200 yards in the regular season, 9 to 7. He's one of, if not the most overrated player in the NFL.

heh ... got to love jokes made to justify opinions that are consistently proven to be false .... stay stubborn my friend

 

[kerouac9]

That's because Wilson is not a bad ass QB and will likely see stacked fronts all year again. People are basing Wilson's year on his last game. When you look at his season, he had ZERO 300 yard passing games and passed for under 200 yards in more games than over 200 yards in the regular season, 9 to 7. He's one of, if not the most overrated player in the NFL.

Yeah... I was going to post something similar a couple of days ago, but I thought I'd check my facts first:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

8th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement
6th in defense-adjusted value over average
8th in QBR

2nd in rushing DYAR, 10th in rushing DVOA.

Is he Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady? No. Does he have to prove that he can do it again? Certainly.

But dude threw 16 TDs and 2 INTs over the last 8 games of the regular season, and 19 TDs and 4 INTs over the last 10 games if you count the playoffs. That's pretty bad-ass.

 

[Chopper0080]

Yeah... I was going to post something similar a couple of days ago, but I thought I'd check my facts first:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

8th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement
6th in defense-adjusted value over average
8th in QBR

2nd in rushing DYAR, 10th in rushing DVOA.

Is he Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady? No. Does he have to prove that he can do it again? Certainly.

But dude threw 16 TDs and 2 INTs over the last 8 games of the regular season, and 19 TDs and 4 INTs over the last 10 games if you count the playoffs. That's pretty bad-ass.

I was going to respond with something similar. Russell Wilson needs to take the next step, but he played very well at the end of the season last year, especially when you consider the offensive weapons he had to work with. Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Zach Miller in the NFC West? That is making the most out of a little IMO.

 

[kerouac9]

I was going to respond with something similar. Russell Wilson needs to take the next step, but he played very well at the end of the season last year, especially when you consider the offensive weapons he had to work with. Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Zach Miller in the NFC West? That is making the most out of a little IMO.

Oh, yeah, and Seattle also played the 4th-hardest schedule in the NFL last year (we had the hardest).

For those scoring at home, Indy played the easiest schedule in the NFL last year.

 

[MigratingOsprey]

Yeah... I was going to post something similar a couple of days ago, but I thought I'd check my facts first:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

8th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement
6th in defense-adjusted value over average
8th in QBR

2nd in rushing DYAR, 10th in rushing DVOA.

Is he Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady? No. Does he have to prove that he can do it again? Certainly.

But dude threw 16 TDs and 2 INTs over the last 8 games of the regular season, and 19 TDs and 4 INTs over the last 10 games if you count the playoffs. That's pretty bad-ass.

His first 4 weeks were rough, but he got much better as the season progressed

Here are more stats:
QB Rating: 4th
Completion %: 8th
Accuracy % (elminates dropped passes, spikes, throw aways): 4th
Deep Passing (+20 yards) Accuracy %: 5th
Accuracy % under pressure: 5th
1st downs per attempt: 7th
TD's per attempt: 2nd
Yards per attempt: 4th
Average Yards in Air (removing all YAC) = 5th (7.6 per completion)

He had an excellent rookie year and a good season regardless of tenure

However, what makes us most excited about the guy is the relentless approach .... the guy just gets it ....... he's won over both sides of the ball with is demeanor, approach and attitude .... his leadership is off he charts .... the way he prepares and works, is unlike anything I've seen at QB on the hawks and definitely seems to be top level for the league on par with about anyone

 

[cardpa]

When you have a guy like Lynch to run the ball for you it does take a bit of pressure off the QB. Defenses had to respect the running ability Lynch. I need to see Wilson perform at the same or better level for another year or two before I would be willing to say he has arrived.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Yeah... I was going to post something similar a couple of days ago, but I thought I'd check my facts first:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

8th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement
6th in defense-adjusted value over average
8th in QBR

2nd in rushing DYAR, 10th in rushing DVOA.

Is he Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady? No. Does he have to prove that he can do it again? Certainly.

But dude threw 16 TDs and 2 INTs over the last 8 games of the regular season, and 19 TDs and 4 INTs over the last 10 games if you count the playoffs. That's pretty bad-ass.

He did have a good year for a rookie. Howverer, I think the OC in Seattle did an excellent job managing Wilson's game. They picked their spots with him and he did very well under those circumstances. My questions are if/when they give him a bigger role and want him to carry the offense, can he do it and excel?

 

[Chopper0080]

When you have a guy like Lynch to run the ball for you it does take a bit of pressure off the QB. Defenses had to respect the running ability Lynch. I need to see Wilson perform at the same or better level for another year or two before I would be willing to say he has arrived.

Meh on Lynch. QBs win games and Wilson won a bunch for the Seahawks last year. Lynch helps, but that is more about fielding a solid team than about taking "pressure" off Wilson.

Folks need to keep things in perspective. Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, RGIII and Kaepernick are among the top young QBs in the game. That doesn't mean that they are instantly better than Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. They all have a ways to go, but should be praised for their quick development and instant success.

If I had to rank them, it would be Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick and RGIII. That being said, I would take any of them as they all seem to be potentially special players.

 

[Chopper0080]

His first 4 weeks were rough, but he got much better as the season progressed

Here are more stats:
QB Rating: 4th
Completion %: 8th
Accuracy % (elminates dropped passes, spikes, throw aways): 4th
Deep Passing (+20 yards) Accuracy %: 5th
Accuracy % under pressure: 5th
1st downs per attempt: 7th
TD's per attempt: 2nd
Yards per attempt: 4th
Average Yards in Air (removing all YAC) = 5th (7.6 per completion)

He had an excellent rookie year and a good season regardless of tenure

However, what makes us most excited about the guy is the relentless approach .... the guy just gets it ....... he's won over both sides of the ball with is demeanor, approach and attitude .... his leadership is off he charts .... the way he prepares and works, is unlike anything I've seen at QB on the hawks and definitely seems to be top level for the league on par with about anyone

Reminds of Brady and Warner in that regard. A very harnished drive, competitivness, and intensity. Wilson gives the same glare that I saw from those two.

 

[kerouac9]

He did have a good year for a rookie. Howverer, I think the OC in Seattle did an excellent job managing Wilson's game. They picked their spots with him and he did very well under those circumstances. My questions are if/when they give him a bigger role and want him to carry the offense, can he do it and excel?

He had a good year for almost any starting quarterback in the NFL, including Phil Rivers and Carson Palmer.

It's not like "the OC in Seattle," whose name is Darrell Bevel, is Mike Martz, Mike Shanahan, or some other offensive guru who can turn chicken feathers into chicken salad. Bevel's one impressive season as a coordinator was 2009 with the Vikings, when Brett Favre (another pretty talented QB) was running the show.

The big knock that I totally understand that you're not (IMO) articulating very well is that Wilson was 25th in the NFL in passing attempts (393) and 40th in the NFL in attempts per game (24.6!). To put that in some perspective, Russell Wilson attempted just 50 more passes than the Arizona Cardinals had running plays last year.

Pretty much everyone is saying that he has to do it again; there's no question of that. The other thing that I think Chopper alludes to, but I want to make explicit, is that Seattle got Wilson with a third-round pick having gone 7-9 or something the year before. Wilson walked into a much better, more complete, more competitive team than either RG3 or Andrew Luck or Ryan Tannehill, including having a draft class around him to make him successful.

I think that Chopper's pushing on RG3 a little bit unfairly. RG3 had to work with a team that wasn't very good, and didn't have much support from the draft (because of the trade) or free agency (because of NFL-provided cap penalities for miscreance during the uncapped year).

 

[Chopper0080]

He had a good year for almost any starting quarterback in the NFL, including Phil Rivers and Carson Palmer.

It's not like "the OC in Seattle," whose name is Darrell Bevel, is Mike Martz, Mike Shanahan, or some other offensive guru who can turn chicken feathers into chicken salad. Bevel's one impressive season as a coordinator was 2009 with the Vikings, when Brett Favre (another pretty talented QB) was running the show.

The big knock that I totally understand that you're not (IMO) articulating very well is that Wilson was 25th in the NFL in passing attempts (393) and 40th in the NFL in attempts per game (24.6!). To put that in some perspective, Russell Wilson attempted just 50 more passes than the Arizona Cardinals had running plays last year.

Pretty much everyone is saying that he has to do it again; there's no question of that. The other thing that I think Chopper alludes to, but I want to make explicit, is that Seattle got Wilson with a third-round pick having gone 7-9 or something the year before. Wilson walked into a much better, more complete, more competitive team than either RG3 or Andrew Luck or Ryan Tannehill, including having a draft class around him to make him successful.

I think that Chopper's pushing on RG3 a little bit unfairly. RG3 had to work with a team that wasn't very good, and didn't have much support from the draft (because of the trade) or free agency (because of NFL-provided cap penalities for miscreance during the uncapped year).

I will specify a bit on this. I rank RGIII behind Kapernick, Luck and Wilson for a couple reasons, not all of which are his fault.

1-I think Luck is the next great QB we will see. All decade level of player. People may not agree, but that is how I feel which is why he ranks #1.

2-Mike Shannahan makes mobile QBs really good, really quick. He got great production out of Plummer and Cutler, and used their mobility to get them into great positions to make plays. Shannahan also got 3000+ yards out of Rex Grossman. Basically, Shannahan gets the most out of his QBs, and RGIII benefits from this.

3-RGIII is more athletic than Kapernick and Wilson, but he is not as thick as they are. Wilson seems to avoid contact better and Kaepernick has a better body to stand up to contact. RGIII has to show me he can be smarter at avoiding hits before I rank him higher, because those hits will translate into injuries with his frame.

What has impressed me the most is what all four of these QBs has done when you look at their supporting cast. Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Michael Crabtree, Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, and Pierre Garcon are the most notable receivers that these guys have to work with and none of them are great weapons. Crabtree has been incinsistent, Wayne is over 30, Hilton was a rookie and Garcon was injured for the majority of the year. In terms of running backs, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, Vick Ballard and Alfred Morris? TEs get even worse with Vernon Davis and a injured/rookie/drug user mix of Zach Miller, Dewayne Allen, Cody Fleener and Fred Davis.

I am excited to see how these QBs all develop as they are all pretty fun to watch.