Stark: What happens when ‘bullpenning’ madness meets the free-agent starter market?

[Dback Jon]

https://theathletic.com/638998/2018...-madness-meets-the-free-agent-starter-market/

Attention, Gio González, Matt Harvey, Marco Estrada and, frankly, all free-agent starting pitchers not named Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and Nathan Eovaldi. You might want to read this opus and jot down some notes.

This was the free-agent starting-pitcher market just three years ago:

 

[Dback Jon]

LIST NO. 1: THE 200-INNING CLUB
Number of pitchers working 200+ innings:
2018 – 13*
2017 – 15
2016 – 15
2015 – 28
2014 – 34
2013 – 36
2012 – 31
2011 – 39
2010 – 45
2005 – 50
(* – fewest in any full season in history)

What you need to know: Not so long ago, the average rotation included two starters on every team who threw 200 innings. By this year, 21 of the 30 teams had no pitcher who worked 200 innings. And only three teams – the Astros, Indians and Diamondbacks – had more than one who did it.

 

[Dback Jon]

Greinke pitched 207, Corbin 200

 

[Dback Jon]

1 Max Scherzer WSH 33 33 220 .2
2 Jacob deGrom NYM 32 32 217.0
3 Corey Kluber CLE 33 33 215.0
4 Justin Verlander HOU 34 34 214.0
5 Aaron Nola PHI 33 33 212.1
6 Zack Greinke ARI 33 33 207.2
7 James Shields CHW 34 33 204.2
Dallas Keuchel HOU 34 34 204.2
9 Kyle Freeland COL 33 33 202.1
10 Miles Mikolas STL 32 32 200.2
11 Gerrit Cole HOU 32 32 200.1
12 Patrick Corbin ARI 33 33 200.0
Mike Clevinger CLE 32 32 200.0

 

[DWKB]

BP usage since 1969 has had more of an affect on the game than the DH could ever have, but because it’s been a slower creep the traditionalists have complained less.

 

[BC867]

BP usage since 1969 has had more of an affect on the game than the DH could ever have, but because it’s been a slower creep the traditionalists have complained less.

As one of those traditionalists, I have wondered why starting pitchers could no longer start every 4th game or be counted on to pitch complete games.

Commuting on jets rather than busses or trains. Staying in fancy hotels on the road. Being fed fancy food. And being paid millions of dollars to play baseball.

They became spoiled.

That is not a parallel situation to the designated hitter, which created an extra position in the lineup (though not the batting order).

 

[Shaggy]

LIST NO. 1: THE 200-INNING CLUB
Number of pitchers working 200+ innings:
2018 – 13*
2017 – 15
2016 – 15
2015 – 28
2014 – 34
2013 – 36
2012 – 31
2011 – 39
2010 – 45
2005 – 50
(* – fewest in any full season in history)

What you need to know: Not so long ago, the average rotation included two starters on every team who threw 200 innings. By this year, 21 of the 30 teams had no pitcher who worked 200 innings. And only three teams – the Astros, Indians and Diamondbacks – had more than one who did it.

That's a crazy stat from what it used to be like.

 

[Phrazbit]

As one of those traditionalists, I have wondered why starting pitchers could no longer start every 4th game or be counted on to pitch complete games.

Commuting on jets rather than busses or trains. Staying in fancy hotels on the road. Being fed fancy food. And being paid millions of dollars to play baseball.

They became spoiled.

That is not a parallel situation to the designated hitter, which created an extra position in the lineup (though not the batting order).

It's not pitchers being spoiled, I guarantee these guys are not asking to get pulled. It's managers micro managing the game.

DWKB is right, it was a trickle, but then Bruce Bochy released the river. He game planned for using 5-6 relievers when other managers still viewed using 3 as a sign of disaster.

I feel it's damaging the game but, as a strategy, it cannot be argued. Batters do way better if they see the same pitcher on their 3rd go through the order.

 

[Matt L]

It's not pitchers being spoiled, I guarantee these guys are not asking to get pulled. It's managers micro managing the game.

DWKB is right, it was a trickle, but then Bruce Bochy released the river. He game planned for using 5-6 relievers when other managers still viewed using 3 as a sign of disaster.

I feel it's damaging the game but, as a strategy, it cannot be argued. Batters do way better if they see the same pitcher on their 3rd go through the order.

I'm guessing it is a combination of the following:

1. hitters are getting better, it is harder to get outs
2. pitchers are throwing harder, exerting more energy to get their velocity up and using more pitches to get through 4-5 innings.
3. managers are (correctly) using their bullpens to try to win games.

 

[Willie D]

I'm guessing it is a combination of the following:

1. hitters are getting better, it is harder to get outs
--didn't MLB just set a record for strikeouts vs. HRs (collectively)?
2. pitchers are throwing harder, exerting more energy to get their velocity up and using more pitches to get through 4-5 innings.
--This "batter do better" canard gives serious disservice to catchers. You don't think Yadi Molina or Buster Posey knows to to F with a batter's mind?
3. managers are (correctly) using their bullpens to try to win games.

--Ask Craig Counsell how this worked out.

 

[Matt L]

I have no idea if Posey and Molina f with the batter's minds. Do starting pitchers on the Giants and cardinals throw more innings than the league average?

Milwaukee was one win away from the world series. are you arguing he didn't use his bullpen effectively?

 

[Willie D]

I have no idea if Posey and Molina f with the batter's minds. Do starting pitchers on the Giants and Cardinals [sic] throw more innings than the league average?

Milwaukee was one win away from the world series. are you arguing he didn't use his bullpen effectively?

Milwaukee had junk for starting pitching. Hence the "bullpen-openers." Counsell left some in too long, yanked others too fast. Perhaps this strategy might work out in a decade when the game is run by nerds wielding Cray Suprecomputers to figure out who to play at each individual moment of the world. But right now it's a crash course in brain surgery. The Doyers, on the other hand, had good starters, and won the LCS. They blew it for the same reason: playing analytics over gut instinct.

I can't speak for Posey, but yes, Yadi messes with batters all the time. While giving out signals, he sometimes starts talking to the Wonder-Bread batter in Spanish, except all he's saying are the headlines from the day's newspaper.

 

[DWKB]

Milwaukee had junk for starting pitching. Hence the "bullpen-openers." Counsell left some in too long, yanked others too fast. Perhaps this strategy might work out in a decade when the game is run by nerds wielding Cray Suprecomputers to figure out who to play at each individual moment of the world. But right now it's a crash course in brain surgery. The Doyers, on the other hand, had good starters, and won the LCS. They blew it for the same reason: playing analytics over gut instinct.

I can't speak for Posey, but yes, Yadi messes with batters all the time. While giving out signals, he sometimes starts talking to the Wonder-Bread batter in Spanish, except all he's saying are the headlines from the day's newspaper.

:big laugh:

 

[Matt L]

Milwaukee had junk for starting pitching. Hence the "bullpen-openers." Counsell left some in too long, yanked others too fast. Perhaps this strategy might work out in a decade when the game is run by nerds wielding Cray Suprecomputers to figure out who to play at each individual moment of the world. But right now it's a crash course in brain surgery. The Doyers, on the other hand, had good starters, and won the LCS. They blew it for the same reason: playing analytics over gut instinct.

I can't speak for Posey, but yes, Yadi messes with batters all the time. While giving out signals, he sometimes starts talking to the Wonder-Bread batter in Spanish, except all he's saying are the headlines from the day's newspaper.

So the overachieving Brewers should have used their gut more?

Let me guess, Boston won the world series due to their gut instinct?

 

[Willie D]

Let me guess, Boston won the world series due to their gut instinct?

The Sox won because of better hitting, fewer mental errors and sheer inertia offensively. If you want to term that "gut instinct," then yes. The lack of "mental errors" was Cora not paying so much attention to the number geeks.

The Brewers made the playoffs on good timing. They peaked when the Scrubs had a ratchet bullpen down the stretch. And the Cardinals...their defense sucked for most of the season.

The 1988 WS would have ended a lot differently if Kirk Gibson didn't get to pinch hit.

 

[DWKB]

You all know the story of the 3 blind men grabbing the elephant and all proclaiming it to be a different thing (leg :: tree, trunk :: snake, etc..)?

That’s most fans who attempt to proclaim what an organization does and doesn’t utilize to win/lose.