Steve Keim: Bucking the Trend

[mojorizen7]

I agree and posted it because you have your own sample size issue and picked QBR rating and yards as measures of what great QB's are and we both know that could be debated.

I still stand by my statement that if you want to get a franchise QB it's best to draft one in the 1st rd and even better the earlier in the 1st rd you draft them.

Agreed.
A fellow fan compiled a ton of data on this subject. It's a wall of text(sorry) but it's pretty eye opening stuff if you take the time to go thru it. If you want a franchise QB you have to go draft one fairly high, otherwise you're gambling and probably drafting JAG's. I bolded some key points.

84 Quarterbacks drafted in rounds 4-7 from 2004-2015

2005 draft classmates Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassell Kyle Orton, and 2012 Kirk Cousins are the ONLY worthwhile QB's in the bunch.. What else is mindboggling? Zero playoff appearances from our Four Musketeers.

My conclusions-
1. Despite rumors to the contrary, scouting quarterbacks has improved immensely! Since 2005 Kirk Cousins is the only solid starter drafted after round3.

2. The odds of drafting a Franchise Quarterback in rounds 4-7 are nil. The odds of drafting a servable game manager QB are roughly- 4.7%

13 Quarterbacks drafted in round 3 from 2004-2015

Russell Wilson, Matt Schwab, and Nick Foles are crème la crème of the 3rd round Quarterbacks. We know about Nick Foles and Russell Wilson.

Two time pro-bowler Matt Schwab amassed 24851 career passing yards, 133 TD's, and 99 interceptions. Schwab has a 1-1 playoff record.

Russell Wilson is by far the best. Agreed? Sean Mannion is our 3rd round pick. Factoring in the fact that Mannion hasn't been the league long enough yet, the odds of drafting an All Pro in the 3rd round are roughly 1 in 6 or 16%. ( The crazy thing is all 3 quarterbacks have a probowl appearance in their back pocket. Foles and Schwab's good old days are behind them. )

The odds of you drafting a Quarterback in the 3rd round that will take you to a Superbowl are 7.7%

15 Quarterbacks drafted in round 2 from 2004-2015.

Andy Dalton and Derek Carr are NFL Starting caliber QB's who could take you to a Superbowl. The jury is out on Brock Osweiler and Jimmy Garoppolo. Though Colin Kaepernick's has been to Superbowl his career has been UP then down.

I count 5 backup QB's and 3 complete busts. You have a 33% chance of obtaining a starting quarterback out of the 2nd round. Because most these 2nd round QB's haven't finished their careers, I can't calculate the odds of Superbowl starting QB appearances, but I would guess 2-4 Superbowl appearences total.

Now look at Brock Osweiler's contract. If Jimmy Garoppolo goes 5-2 as a back with two 300 yard games, what kind of draft pick could the Patriots command in a trade for Garoppolo. How big a contract could Garoppolo command in free agency in a quarterback hungry NFL?



19 Quarterbacks drafted between picks 5 and 32 in the first round between 2004-2015.

6 out the 19 or 31.5% of 1st round Quarterbacks draft between 5 and 32 are solid starters. These six QB's include Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill and Teddy Bridgewater.

Of these QB's,
Joe Flacco (drafted 2008), Roethlisberger (2004), and Aaron Rodgers (2005) have led their team to multiple playoff appearances and Superbowls. (It's been 8 years since a QB of this caliber has been drafted after the 4th pick in round one.

Picks 5-32, the last 9 drafts beginning with the 2006 draft, have begat Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden, EJ Manual, Ryan Tannehill, Jake Locker, Mark Schanez, Josh Freeman, Brady Quinn, Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater. Pretty slim pickings for first round draftee's.

Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill and possible Teddy Bridgewater are cream of crop when it comes to picks 5-32. 4 solid starters in 9 drafts

14 Quarterbacks drafted with picks 1-4 between 2004-2015

2 busts- Vince Young and Jamarcus Russell

6 ALL PRO's- Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Mathew Stafford

3 Too Young to Judge, but could be great- Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariota

2 Solid Starters- Sam Bradford and Alex Smith

1 Probable bust but maybe not- R3 lll

The odds of you drafting a multi year starter within the first 4 picks of the draft are roughly 10/14. Or 71%





Bottom Line
In the last 9 drafts, since 2006 draft on, 106 quarterbacks have been picked from the (5th pick of first round) through the end of 7th round.

The best of the 106? Teddy Bridgewater, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Derrek Carr, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. Eight solid starting quarterbacks in 10 years! Only Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Andy Dalton were drafted after the first round. The others are either retired, washed up, on a downward spiral, or haven't done it yet.

If the recent past points towards a similar future, then the odds of a team drafting a franchise quarterback after the 4th pick of the first round are 8/106 or 7.5% compared to 71% if you draft a QB within the first 4 picks.

Review-
Odds of finding starter rounds 4-7 .............4.7%
Odds of finding starter 3rd round...............16.6%
Odds of finding starter 2nd round...............33%
Odds of finding starter after pick 4 of first round....31.5%
Odds of finding starter from 1-4 pick of 1st Rd......71%

*Although round 2 and round 1 (picks 5-32) QB's appear similar at first glance, I must point out that picks 5-32 of the first round picks Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Joe Flacco elipse the round 2 picks. There is a definite pizazz to the later 1st round picks that panned out.


My calculations and ideas came from the raw data below....Forgive me if I made math mistakes.

2015 1 1 TAM Jameis Winston
2015 1 2 TEN Marcus Mariota
2015 3 75 NOR Garrett Grayson
2015 3 89 STL Sean Mannion.
2015 4 103 NYJ Bryce Petty
2015 5 147 GNB Brett Hundley
2015 7 250 DEN Trevor Siemian

2014 1 3 JAX Blake Bortles
2014 1 22 CLE Johnny Manziel
2014 1 32 MIN Teddy Bridgewater
2014 2 36 OAK Derek Carr
2014 2 62 NWE Jimmy Garoppolo
2014 4 120 ARI Logan Thomas
2014 4 135 HOU Tom Savage
2014 5 163 KAN Aaron Murray
2014 5 164 CIN A.J. McCarron
2014 6 178 TEN Zach Mettenberger
2014 6 183 CHI David Fales
2014 6 194 BAL Keith Wenning
2014 6 213 NYJ Tajh Boyd
2014 6 214 STL Garrett Gilbert

2013 1 16 BUF EJ Manuel
2013 2 39 NYJ Geno Smith
2013 3 73 TAM Mike Glennon
2013 4 110 NYG Ryan Nassib
2013 4 112 OAK Tyler Wilson
2013 4 115 PIT Landry Jones
2013 7 221 SDG Brad Sorensen
2013 7 234 DEN Zac Dysert
2013 7 237 SFO B.J. Daniels
2013 7 249 ATL Sean Renfree

2012 1 1 IND Andrew Luck
2012 1 2 WAS Robert Griffin
2012 1 8 MIA Ryan Tannehill
2012 1 22 CLE Brandon Weeden St.
2012 2 57 DEN Brock Osweiler
2012 3 75 SEA Russell Wilson
2012 3 88 PHI Nick Foles
2012 4 102 WAS Kirk Cousins
2012 6 185 ARI Ryan Lindley
2012 7 243 GNB B.J. Coleman
2012 7 253 IND Chandler Harnish

2011 1 1 CAR Cam Newton
2011 1 8 TEN Jake Locker
2011 1 10 JAX Blaine Gabbert
2011 1 12 MIN Christian Ponder .
2011 2 35 CIN Andy Dalton
2011 2 36 SFO Colin Kaepernick
2011 3 74 NWE Ryan Mallett
2011 5 135 KAN Ricky Stanzi
2011 5 152 HOU T.J. Yates
2011 5 160 CHI Nathan Enderle
2011 6 180 BAL Tyrod Taylor
2011 7 208 NYJ Greg McElroy

2010 1 1 STL Sam Bradford
2010 1 25 DEN Tim Tebow
2010 2 48 CAR Jimmy Clausen
2010 3 85 CLE Colt McCoy
2010 4 122 PHI Mike Kafka
2010 5 155 ARI John Skelton
2010 5 168 SDG Jonathan Crompton
2010 6 176 TEN Rusty Smith
2010 6 181 CHI Dan LeFevour
2010 6 204 CAR Tony Pike
2010 7 209 BUF Levi Brown
2010 7 239 NOR Sean Canfield
2010 7 250 NWE Zac Robinson

2009 1 1 DET Matthew Stafford
2009 1 5 NYJ Mark Sanchez
2009 1 17 TAM Josh Freeman
2009 2 44 MIA Pat White
2009 4 101 DAL Stephen McGee
2009 5 151 NYG Rhett Bomar
2009 5 171 SFO Nate Davis
2009 6 174 DEN Tom Brandstater
2009 6 178 SEA Mike Teel
2009 6 196 STL Keith Null
2009 6 201 IND Curtis Painter

2008 1 3 ATL Matt Ryan
2008 1 18 BAL Joe Flacco
2008 2 56 GNB Brian Brohm
2008 2 57 MIA Chad Henne
2008 3 94 NWE Kevin O'Connell
2008 5 137 MIN John David Booty
2008 5 156 PIT Dennis Dixon
2008 5 160 TAM Josh Johnson
2008 5 162 NYJ Erik Ainge
2008 6 186 WAS Colt Brennan
2008 6 198 NYG Andre Woodson
2008 7 223 HOU Alex Brink

2007 1 1 OAK JaMarcus Russell
2007 1 22 CLE Brady Quinn
2007 2 36 PHI Kevin Kolb
2007 2 40 MIA John Beck
2007 2 43 DET Drew Stanton
2007 3 92 BUF Trent Edwards
2007 4 103 DAL Isaiah Stanback
2007 5 151 CIN Jeff Rowe
2007 5 174 BAL Troy Smith
2007 6 205 WAS Jordan Palmer
2007 7 217 MIN Tyler Thigpen

2006 1 3 TEN Vince Young
2006 1 10 ARI Matt Leinart
2006 1 11 DEN Jay Cutler
2006 2 49 NYJ Kellen Clemens
2006 2 64 MIN Tarvaris Jackson
2006 3 81 SDG Charlie Whitehurst
2006 3 85 KAN Brodie Croyle
2006 4 103 NYJ Brad Smith
2006 5 148 GNB Ingle Martin
2006 5 164 PIT Omar Jacobs
2006 6 193 CIN Reggie McNeal
2006 6 194 TAM Bruce Gradkowski
2006 7 223 ATL D.J. Shockley

2005 1 1 SFO Alex Smith
2005 1 24 GNB Aaron Rodgers
2005 1 25 WAS Jason Campbell
2005 3 67 CLE Charlie Frye
2005 3 69 OAK Andrew Walter
2005 3 85 SEA David Greene
2005 4 106 CHI Kyle Orton
2005 4 121 CAR Stefan Lefors
2005 5 145 DET Dan Orlovsky
2005 5 152 NOR Adrian McPherson
2005 6 213 BAL Derek Anderson
2005 7 229 KAN James Kilian

2004 1 1 SDG Eli Manning
2004 1 4 NYG Philip Rivers
2004 1 11 PIT Ben Roethlisberger
2004 1 22 BUF J.P. Losman
2004 3 90 ATL Matt Schaub
2004 4 106 CLE Luke McCown
2004 5 148 CHI Craig Krenzel
2004 6 185 PHI Andy Hall
2004 6 187 BAL Josh Harris
2004 6 193 IND Jim Sorgi
2004 7 202 ARI John Navarre
2004 7 217 SFO Cody Pickett
2004 7 218 CIN Casey Bramlet
2004 7 225 DEN Matt Mauck
2004 7 248 HOU B.J. Symons
2004 7 250 DEN Bradlee Van Pelt

 

[oaken1]

sometimes a guy comes along that everyone just KNOWS is going to be an awesome nfl QB....when that guy comes along, the vast majority of the time he is picked #1 overall.

That is just a simple fact of the nfl.

sometimes in the first round you get Ryan Leaf...it happens...also a simple fact of the nfl.

the guys who spend their lives evaluating talent for a living are very good at what they do...so it only makes sense that the best players at the most important position would be picked early.... those guys are really good...but they are not flawless...at times they miss on a guy,....other times, they never even see a guy coming.

some of the credit has to go to the player as well...

Kurt Warner for example... undrafted...tried to stick with several teams, and didn't.... but somehow he made it, and for a time was the best in the game....... Tom Brady...drafted right before Mr Irrelevant,... and now has a fist full of rings...
some guys want it bad enough in their gut to work for it until they overcome their shortcomings...some famous guy said, " you can't measure a players heart".. and IMO that is why you have later draft picks coming out of the blue to be top players... maybe getting picked in the sixth, or not at all...makes them realize they are about to lose their dream, it's all about to end,...and it flips a switch for them

 

[kerouac9]

Agreed.
A fellow fan compiled a ton of data on this subject. It's a wall of text(sorry) but it's pretty eye opening stuff if you take the time to go thru it. If you want a franchise QB you have to go draft one fairly high, otherwise you're gambling and probably drafting JAG's. I bolded some key points.

This is a good post, thanks for sharing. I think that the poster underrates the ability to acquire quality starters through trade and free agency. Sam Bradford, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler, and Drew Brees are guys who changed franchises after their first contract.

I agree that you're probably better off with a first-rounder at quarterback (as with every other position on the football team), but there's no reason to assume that you have to use YOUR first rounder.

Also: Nick Foles is hot garbage.

 

[Cardiac]

Agreed.
A fellow fan compiled a ton of data on this subject. It's a wall of text(sorry) but it's pretty eye opening stuff if you take the time to go thru it. If you want a franchise QB you have to go draft one fairly high, otherwise you're gambling and probably drafting JAG's. I bolded some key points.

So I was right and let k9 blur my vision.