I'll give you the "in hindsight" in this instance. From my perspective, I didn't see him improving enough to warrant that contract,
If he doesn't get back to form after this injury, absolutely. If he gets back to his 2021 first half of the year form, he will not only warrant the contract, but could out play it.
But here is the problem with letting him play out one more year. Here are the options.
1. Let him play out the year. You risk losing him for nothing. You would have thought at the time that Kyler would have been worth AT LEAST what Stafford was worth. (2 first round picks and 1 3rd round pick) If he does earn a contract, you are paying 30-40M
more than what his current contract is now.
2. Trade him for assets even though you just came off an 11 win season and a surprise playoff birth that ended in disaster. Even with the bad playoff game, the optics don't look good. At least you'd expect to get similar assets that Stafford got, maybe more.
3. You sign him early in the NFL year and
save 30-40M on what his current contract is.
4. You sign him to the contract that he was signed at.
There's an argument that letting him play out his final year is the
worst option of the 4
I remember when some thought the Mahomes contract was crazy and now he's a bargain. Problem here is, it emphatically went the other way, and reminds us as fans why locking the wrong player up early can be disastrous.
That's true, until you look at the details of the contract. He is never going to play out all 10 years of the contract. He will likely re-sign/re-negotiate at it at end of 2024. If Mahomes is still Mahomes at that time, (and there is no reason to think he wouldn't be) and his fellow QBs are making 50-60M per, I can't see any way he doesn't get another new deal.