Hollinger article in the New York Suns paper
http://www.nysun.com/article/25298?page_no=1
By JOHN HOLLINGER
January 4, 2006
With most of the early-season attention focused on the Knicks' struggles, Miami's coaching change, and Detroit's red-hot start, perhaps the year's most remarkable story has been left to fly below the radar. But as we near the halfway point of the season, it's getting hard to ignore the astonishing surprise that is the Phoenix Suns.
When the Suns announced that star forward Amare Stoudemire was going to miss most of the season after undergoing microfracture knee surgery, many figured they'd struggle just to make the playoffs. In addition to the loss of Stoudemire, Phoenix's 62-win juggernaut of a year ago also suffered the loss of guard Joe Johnson in a sign-and-trade deal and made only a few low-wattage additions to fill the gaps.
Nevertheless, Phoenix currently sits atop the Pacific Division and would be the second seed in the West if the playoffs started today. It's beginning to dawn on folks that once Stoudemire comes back - which could be as early as a month from now - the Suns could barnstorm the postseason.
Dig a little deeper and you'll realize just how good Phoenix could potentially be. For starters, the Suns are a lot better than their 19-11 record indicates. The best way to evaluate teams is by their average victory margin, which shows how dominant they have been relative to their opposition. (To use one pertinent example, the Spurs had a much better victory margin than the Suns last season despite an inferior record, and proceeded to blow Phoenix off the floor in five games in the conference finals.)
This season, the tables are turned. Despite owning a worse record than Memphis, Dallas, and San Antonio, Phoenix nearly has the best average victory margin in the Western Conference, at +6.3 heading into last night's games. That puts them a hair behind San Antonio and far ahead of Dallas and Memphis.
So how are the Suns so good despite the absence of two of last season's most important players? Their roster hardly seems overwhelming - it's basically Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, and a bunch of role players. In addition to losing Stoudemire, the club suffered injuries to key players like Leandro Barbosa and Brian Grant. Their frontcourt, which was supposedly greatly improved in the offseason, now often consists of 6-foot-7 Marion and 6-foot-8 Boris Diaw.
But a major defensive improvement from a year ago has set the Suns' soaring even in Stoudemire's absence. It's hard to put into words how shocking their defensive renaissance has been. Last season's club wasn't bad - they ranked 16th overall for the season - but suffice it to say, it wasn't the team's primary emphasis.
This season, however, the Suns rank second in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency, my measure of a team's points allowed per 100 possessions. In fact, they trail only San Antonio in that department and are well ahead of Shaq's Heat or the Bad-Boy Pistons. A bit of that is luck - the Suns' opponents are shooting a league-worst 69.5% from the line, well below the league average of 74.1%, which saves the team nearly a point per game compared to the league average.
But even with that adjustment, Phoenix's defense is outstanding. Diaw, a throw-in to the sign-and-trade for Johnson, can guard all five positions and enables the Suns to match up against almost any lineup. Newly acquired offguard Raja Bell, though a dud on offense, gives the team a legit defensive stopper to replace the departed Johnson. Ex-Knick Kurt Thomas provides some toughness in the middle against bigger centers, while Marion has always been an underrated defender. The result is a defense that may lack size, but also lacks a weak link.
Coach Mike D'Antoni's scheme and strategies (is it too early to describe him as "brilliant" here?) are helping as well. The Suns force opponents to go one-onone to get their points because none of their defenders needs to be bailed out by double-teams. As a result, the Suns are miles ahead of the rest of the league in one important stat - the percentage of opponents' shots that are assisted. Phoenix's opponents get assists on only 43.2% of their field goals, whereas the league average is 57.1% and only two other teams are below 50%.Playing one-on-one is a tough way to score consistently, which explains why the Suns' opponents haven't.
Offensively, the Suns have also managed to keep their heads above water thanks to a few astute off-season pickups. Journeyman guard Eddie House has found a home as a gunner off the bench and has shot the lights out of late, sparking a second unit that was a glaring weakness last year. Diaw had been about as useful as a scuba shop in Nebraska during his tenure with the Hawks, but has come of age in Phoenix and showcased his outstanding versatility. And James Jones, a low-cost free agent, has added outside shooting and solid defense off the bench, allowing the Suns to replace the noticeably declining Jim Jackson.
Can the Suns keep it up? One can make the case against it. Certainly, players like House and Diaw are playing over their heads, and it's questionable whether they can keep it up for a full season. The Suns also risk wearing down Marion and Diaw by playing them inside so frequently, and the team's glaring lack of size could be exposed as the year wears on. On the other hand, reports on Stoudemire's rehab say it's going quite well, and Barbosa should also be back in action soon. If the two are even remotely as effective as they were pre-injury, the Suns' offense should get a big enough boost that it would more than offset the expected declines from House and Diaw.
As a result, I expect the Suns are here to stay. Based on their impressive point differential, they should roll to the Pacific Division crown - even if the standings don't show it at the moment. Even without Stoudemire, they're arguably the best team in the West right now, a miraculous development that has received little fanfare. If he makes a healthy return, Phoenix could become nigh unbeatable. So while everybody else stays fixated on the Spurs, Pistons, Mavs, and Heat, don't be shocked if the Suns are the ones hoisting a championship trophy this June.
http://www.nysun.com/article/25298?page_no=1
By JOHN HOLLINGER
January 4, 2006
With most of the early-season attention focused on the Knicks' struggles, Miami's coaching change, and Detroit's red-hot start, perhaps the year's most remarkable story has been left to fly below the radar. But as we near the halfway point of the season, it's getting hard to ignore the astonishing surprise that is the Phoenix Suns.
When the Suns announced that star forward Amare Stoudemire was going to miss most of the season after undergoing microfracture knee surgery, many figured they'd struggle just to make the playoffs. In addition to the loss of Stoudemire, Phoenix's 62-win juggernaut of a year ago also suffered the loss of guard Joe Johnson in a sign-and-trade deal and made only a few low-wattage additions to fill the gaps.
Nevertheless, Phoenix currently sits atop the Pacific Division and would be the second seed in the West if the playoffs started today. It's beginning to dawn on folks that once Stoudemire comes back - which could be as early as a month from now - the Suns could barnstorm the postseason.
Dig a little deeper and you'll realize just how good Phoenix could potentially be. For starters, the Suns are a lot better than their 19-11 record indicates. The best way to evaluate teams is by their average victory margin, which shows how dominant they have been relative to their opposition. (To use one pertinent example, the Spurs had a much better victory margin than the Suns last season despite an inferior record, and proceeded to blow Phoenix off the floor in five games in the conference finals.)
This season, the tables are turned. Despite owning a worse record than Memphis, Dallas, and San Antonio, Phoenix nearly has the best average victory margin in the Western Conference, at +6.3 heading into last night's games. That puts them a hair behind San Antonio and far ahead of Dallas and Memphis.
So how are the Suns so good despite the absence of two of last season's most important players? Their roster hardly seems overwhelming - it's basically Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, and a bunch of role players. In addition to losing Stoudemire, the club suffered injuries to key players like Leandro Barbosa and Brian Grant. Their frontcourt, which was supposedly greatly improved in the offseason, now often consists of 6-foot-7 Marion and 6-foot-8 Boris Diaw.
But a major defensive improvement from a year ago has set the Suns' soaring even in Stoudemire's absence. It's hard to put into words how shocking their defensive renaissance has been. Last season's club wasn't bad - they ranked 16th overall for the season - but suffice it to say, it wasn't the team's primary emphasis.
This season, however, the Suns rank second in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency, my measure of a team's points allowed per 100 possessions. In fact, they trail only San Antonio in that department and are well ahead of Shaq's Heat or the Bad-Boy Pistons. A bit of that is luck - the Suns' opponents are shooting a league-worst 69.5% from the line, well below the league average of 74.1%, which saves the team nearly a point per game compared to the league average.
But even with that adjustment, Phoenix's defense is outstanding. Diaw, a throw-in to the sign-and-trade for Johnson, can guard all five positions and enables the Suns to match up against almost any lineup. Newly acquired offguard Raja Bell, though a dud on offense, gives the team a legit defensive stopper to replace the departed Johnson. Ex-Knick Kurt Thomas provides some toughness in the middle against bigger centers, while Marion has always been an underrated defender. The result is a defense that may lack size, but also lacks a weak link.
Coach Mike D'Antoni's scheme and strategies (is it too early to describe him as "brilliant" here?) are helping as well. The Suns force opponents to go one-onone to get their points because none of their defenders needs to be bailed out by double-teams. As a result, the Suns are miles ahead of the rest of the league in one important stat - the percentage of opponents' shots that are assisted. Phoenix's opponents get assists on only 43.2% of their field goals, whereas the league average is 57.1% and only two other teams are below 50%.Playing one-on-one is a tough way to score consistently, which explains why the Suns' opponents haven't.
Offensively, the Suns have also managed to keep their heads above water thanks to a few astute off-season pickups. Journeyman guard Eddie House has found a home as a gunner off the bench and has shot the lights out of late, sparking a second unit that was a glaring weakness last year. Diaw had been about as useful as a scuba shop in Nebraska during his tenure with the Hawks, but has come of age in Phoenix and showcased his outstanding versatility. And James Jones, a low-cost free agent, has added outside shooting and solid defense off the bench, allowing the Suns to replace the noticeably declining Jim Jackson.
Can the Suns keep it up? One can make the case against it. Certainly, players like House and Diaw are playing over their heads, and it's questionable whether they can keep it up for a full season. The Suns also risk wearing down Marion and Diaw by playing them inside so frequently, and the team's glaring lack of size could be exposed as the year wears on. On the other hand, reports on Stoudemire's rehab say it's going quite well, and Barbosa should also be back in action soon. If the two are even remotely as effective as they were pre-injury, the Suns' offense should get a big enough boost that it would more than offset the expected declines from House and Diaw.
As a result, I expect the Suns are here to stay. Based on their impressive point differential, they should roll to the Pacific Division crown - even if the standings don't show it at the moment. Even without Stoudemire, they're arguably the best team in the West right now, a miraculous development that has received little fanfare. If he makes a healthy return, Phoenix could become nigh unbeatable. So while everybody else stays fixated on the Spurs, Pistons, Mavs, and Heat, don't be shocked if the Suns are the ones hoisting a championship trophy this June.
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