Suns Big Men

[George O'Brien]

There was an article a few days ago that concluded that so far in the playoffs, the teams with the best big men won. Not just one big man - the strongest winners had at least two pretty good ones:

Pistons - Ben, Sheed, and Okur
Pacers - J. O'Neal, Foster
Lakers - Shaq, Malone
Spurs - Duncan, Nesterovic
Kings - Divac, Miller, Webber

The only strong teams with only one really good big man are the Timberwolves with Garnett and the Nets with Kenyon Martin.

Garnett is averaging 25.8 ppg, 7 rpg, and 45.4% shooting. But due to the Wolves weakness at center, Denver actually out rebounded the Wolves by 3 rebounds per game. (Denver's inside problem was on defense in that the Wolves shot 46% to only 42.7% by the Nuggets)

Martin is having a great playoff and it makes up for having only average players at center. His playoff stats are 23.3 ppg, 14 rpg, and 64.4% shooting). The Knicks have a lot of big men, but they aren't elite players. The Nets rotation of Williams and Collins on defense helped to hold the Knicks to only 38.4% shooting while the Nets shot 47.6%.

One of the reasons the Heat - Hornets battle is so close is that the Hornets lack the outside players of the Heat, but are stronger inside. Harvey Grant is Miami's only quality big man, while PJ Brown with 10 rpg and Magloire is averaging 9 rpg.
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It is possible to win the first round by rotating "average" big men, but it is hard. The Nets combination of Williams and Collins was not that great, but the rest of team made up for it by "team rebounding". In any case, both of these guys are probably better than Voskuhl.

Voskuhl is a good backup center and high energy role player. But he is not good enough to get the Suns out of the first round. Even if Stoudemire gets really good, the Suns will need someone who is at least as good and Williams and Collins.

If there was an elite center available through free agency this year, I'd say go for him rather than Kobe - at least not an elite player in the sence that Shaq, Duncan, Garnett, J. O'Neal, etc. are.

At the end of the season, the Suns had six inside guys: Stoudemire, Voskuhl, White, McDyess, Lampe, and Harvey. It is unlikely the Suns will re-sign Harvey, White is being dangled to tthe Bobcats for cap space, and there is some question about whether the Suns can afford to sign McDyess.

Potentially, this would leave the Suns with just Stoudemire, Voskuhl, and Lampe. Even if Lampe turns into an immediate star, this is not enough depth. If Lampe progresses more slowly, the Suns will have a huge hole.

Late in the season, McDyess played pretty well and proved even after missing more than two full seasons of play, he was better than Voskuhl. It is not clear how much he will command in the open market, but best guess is that $2 million might be enough to keep him. The bad part is that this is clearly a stop gap solution since Dice is not that tall.

The draft is loaded with very young big men. Okafor would be a great pick if the Suns won the lottery and Howard might contribute something even though he is a HS player. At the #7 slot, my preference is Biedrins because he is the European player who is the best defender, rebounder, and shot blocker.

I would re-sign Dice and draft Biedrins even if the Suns thought they MIGHT go after a free agent big man or make a trade. "New Big Man", Voskuhl and Lampe at center; Stoudemire, Dice, and Biedrins at PF is the same number of players the Suns carried this season. Without the "New Big Man", the Suns would have the money to bid on Kobe, but it would be close.

Here is the math:

45,000.00 Projected Salary Cap
(33,885.00) Initial Salaries
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11,115.00 Initial Cap Space

5,885.00 Jahidi White
17,000.00 Revised Available Cap Space

(1,822.00) Biedrins
(2,000.00) McDyess
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13,178.00 Available

This is just barely enough to make a bid on Kobe and does not allow for signing Vujanic. The Suns could trade away their pick to clear more cap space, but that would leave the Suns with only four inside guys unless they sign somebody to a minimum contract.

If the Suns can't keep re-sign Dice for that price, it leaves the Suns extremely weak on the inside unless the go after a FA big man.

 

[elindholm]

I agree that the Suns need help at center. This is true regardless of whether McDyess is re-signed, since he is not a center.

However, I question the value of the analysis that says, "You need a good core of big men to advance in the playoffs, unless your team has other strengths to make up for not having one." Well, sure. You could take out "a good core of big men" and put anything in the blank:

"You need an experienced coach to advance in the playoffs, unless your team has other strengths to make up for not having one."

"You need a wing player who can create his own shot and is reliable from the free-throw line, unless your team has other strengths to make up for not having one."

"You need at least two bench players who are multi-dimensional and threats to put up big numbers in any given game, unless your team has other strengths to make up for not having them."

All good teams will tend to have several things in common. A solid core of big men is just one of those things. I don't think it's any more important than all of the other team qualities necessary to build a winner.

 

[Yuma]

George, I hate to keep beating a dead cat. But I have been saying this all year, and have been villified everytime I bring up our interior weakness, especially in the center position! I agree with your analysis. No matter who we get TMac, or Kobe, we haven't done anything to address the weakness teams are beating us to win games night in and night out. Why is it a coincedence that we win most of the games we OUTREBOUND our opponents? Also, notice the centers and forwards who ahve played us and had "career" nights, season highs, and also have "surprisingly" lead their teams that night in scoring. How many times have we seen our big men sit out significant portions of games due to foulf trouble? At one point this season I thought Voshkul was going for the team record in least minutes played by a Phoenix starting center, however Luc Longley has that nailed down fortunatly for Jake!

 

[BC867]

George, I hate to keep beating a dead cat. But I have been saying this all year, and have been villified everytime I bring up our interior weakness, especially in the center position! ... Why is it a coincedence that we win most of the games we OUTREBOUND our opponents?

Also, notice the centers and forwards who have played us and had "career" nights, season highs, and also have "surprisingly" lead their teams that night in scoring. How many times have we seen our big men sit out significant portions of games due to foul trouble?

This has been the Suns curse throughout their history. Ever since rookie-of-the-year Alvan Adams took the league by surprise as a 212-lb. Center in the '70's, the Suns have have tried to keep up at the Center position, rather than establish it as a position of strength.

Some very good Power Forwards over the years have been neutralized in Phoenix, by having to cover for Centers who were weak and/or sitting on the bench.

I'm wondering when -- and if -- the outside influence now moving into leadership on the Suns will be able to change our 35-year image.

 

[Chaplin]

George, I hate to keep beating a dead cat. But I have been saying this all year, and have been villified everytime I bring up our interior weakness, especially in the center position! I agree with your analysis. No matter who we get TMac, or Kobe, we haven't done anything to address the weakness teams are beating us to win games night in and night out. Why is it a coincedence that we win most of the games we OUTREBOUND our opponents? Also, notice the centers and forwards who ahve played us and had "career" nights, season highs, and also have "surprisingly" lead their teams that night in scoring. How many times have we seen our big men sit out significant portions of games due to foulf trouble? At one point this season I thought Voshkul was going for the team record in least minutes played by a Phoenix starting center, however Luc Longley has that nailed down fortunatly for Jake!

Nobody has "villified" you all season about this, Yuma! I don't think there is anybody on this entire board that thinks we are just fine at the center position.

 

[George O'Brien]

This has been the Suns curse throughout their history. Ever since rookie-of-the-year Alvan Adams took the league by surprise as a 212-lb. Center in the '70's, the Suns have have tried to keep up at the Center position, rather than establish it as a position of strength.

Some very good Power Forwards over the years have been neutralized in Phoenix, by having to cover for Centers who were weak and/or sitting on the bench.

I'm wondering when -- and if -- the outside influence now moving into leadership on the Suns will be able to change our 35-year image.

The Suns have routinely tried to get big men, but seem to have a hard time getting the job done. Since I've been here, they traded for Hot Rod Williams, signed Luc Longley, and drafted Big Jake. (Williams had been a PF in Cleveland with a history of injuries). So the Suns end up with lineups with all forwards.

A lot of this can be traced back to the style of play the Colangelos like: high scoring, wide open, running style. They did not really like Skiles because he prefers to play a defense oriented game with the emphasis on offense to avoid turnovers and early jump shots. It won, but was boring to watch.

Most real centers don't like to play on running teams. Centers tend to focus on weight training rather than running during the off season. This is why it has been so hard for the Mavericks to sign a FA center with their MLE.

I honestly think that Jahidi White can play, but I'm not sure he can run well enough for the Suns. I seriously doubt that Dampier could run well enough for the Suns. Camby might, but I'm not convinced he is physical enough to warrent his price and injury risk.

Part of the reason Lampe is so important to the Suns future is that he is big enough to defend the post, yet athletic enough to run. One of the main reasons I push for Biedrins over some of the other Euro big men is that he is considered very athletic to go along with his rebounding and shot blocking. Pavel wouldn't stand a chance.