Suns Fever has hit me...Offensive ppg breakdown

[Arizona's Finest]

The point breakdown:



Many analysts have wondered how our offensive pace will be maintained due to our losing our obvious 4th and 5th options in what was mostly a 6 man team last year. So I like many of you have charted what I see as likely progressions as well as players who I am not confident in to take the step up everyone assumes they will. Still I came to a staggering number, even being what I termed as realistic about player expectations: 120 pts. I then got even more pessimistic and lopped off a couple points from both Diaw and Jones and it still comes to 116. Obviously this is not going to be the case as it would break records, but someone tell me where I am off because after doing this I came to the realization that our offense will be just fine. It’s the difference of our perceived/real defense and rebounding that will make or break our year.



I rounded it off the totals but my point remains. And yes Eric, I have had another lull at work so u will notice the font choice. With the Cardinals destroying my dreams of success for them, the Suns and the impending season have begun to consume my thoughts. Here’s how I broke it down:



Amare: 29 ppg – I think this is fair from everything we have been hearing. Even w/ more mouths to feed so to speak, I see Amare’s shots going up this year as I feel that he thinks this is his big year to really come out as bar none one of the best three players in the NBA and he will assert himself thusly. This is only a jump in a couple pts so I am not expecting anything crazy. I just think hes gotten that much better. If he doesn’t get an MVP this year, its just a matter of time.



Marion: 17ppg – I think Shawn will be hurt the most in terms of offensive production and he takes a two point slide.



Nash: 15ppg – I might be missing this one here as Nash does not need a lot of shots to be effective and it is likely he will be another player whose offensive numbers will take a dip. Still I think many teams game plans will be much like Dallas in the playoffs and force him to shoot. So there will be many games of 8 pts but more than likely the same amount of 20+ pt nights if that was the defense is giving. This is one I could be wrong about



Bell: 14ppg – He averaged 12 a game for Utah with a slow down defensive style and no PG. If he is infact the starter I think the confluence of our style and Nash will up his ppg by 2 pts. I could be wrong but many have been making a big deal about how good offensively he has looked in these scrimmages. Better than even the Suns thought they were getting.



KT: 12ppg – When we first traded for him I saw him as 15 and 10 but now looking at the team I think he will concentrate on boards and defense more than ever and will likely get the bulk of his points on open mid range shots and offensive rebounding put backs. Still 12ppg IMO is another pessimistic view



Projected role off the bench:



Jackson: 9ppg – Another one I had a hard time with. I think he is going to compete for 6th man of the year but not at this number. Jimmy is the most underrated player on our team and was a HUGE acquisition prior to the deadline. A full season (although a year older) will only cause him to improve. Once again I think I’m being pessimistic.



Grant: 5ppg – Ok I have not faith in his ability to stay healthy so this might be where some of the points go. But 5 pts a game is possible although I think his plodding style will the first to fall out of D’Antoni’s rotation. I love the addition but I don’t see much value coming from this guy in the regular season at all. In fact I see a lot of DNP-CD for him.



Diaw: 5ppg – Optimistic or Pessimistic? I expect Boris to earn a spot in the rotation and 5ppg is likely on the low end if that is the case. Still I don’t see anywhere else to lop off points unless him and Jones are complete busts and average like .6 a game. I don’t see that happening for either of these players.



Jones: 4ppg – See above



Barbosa: 3ppg – from my following the team these last 14 years and more specifically these last three, I just don’t think I see Barbosa developing in to what the Suns hope. Leander even said yesterday that he was the second most athletically gifted player on the team and he could vie for the starting 2 position. I just don’t see it. His lack of size combined with his A.I. game and bashful nature all seem to add up to falling out of the rotation this year. I really want to be wrong because I had high hopes for the kid but I can’t get over the fact that the NBA might be a little to rough and tumble for him. If I had to pick the biggest letdown this upcoming season from the above three guys, im going to have to go with Barbosa.



House: 2ppg – I think this guy is going to be more of a factor than people think. Like D’Antoni says, he is a weapon coming off the bench. So there will be nights when he gets 13- 15 pts and nights where he doesn’t take off his warm-ups. I think his game is well suited for our team and this would be the team he would be most likely to thrive on. So once again I think I’m being pessimistic with this projection.



Burke: 1ppg – My favorite comment from yesterday was from BC about this guy. “he has been in Europe for a few years but we had to go get him because this guy belongs in the NBA. Another big body but he belongs in the NBA much like Paul Shirley and the Gorilla do. As in they aint even getting a sniff of the floor.



So that’s what I got. 116ppg. I think even the most optimistic fan agrees that will not be the case. So are we going to slow down? Will our defensive intensity cause less FG opportunities for both teams? Will our upgrade in offensive rebounding off set that? I even accounted for guys like Barbosa, Burke, and House not seeing the light of day and players I expect something from like Diaw and Jones to average very little. Injuries will play a role as I am assuming everyone stays healthy, but if someone goes down, others numbers should go up. Someone help me here so I realize where I am likely mistaken. Who am I setting the bar too high for……..?

 

[scotsman13]

i think that barbosa is going to have a brake out year. he can start at the 2 not because of his hieght which is 6'3" but because of the his reach which is 6'10" the biggest limiting factor him at the 2 is his wieght where the bigger, stronger player may post him up and push him under the basket because he doesnt have the mass to stop them. i think that that barbosa will get all the back up time behind nash unless one of the 2 of them are injuried.

 

[George O'Brien]

Adding up the PPG per player will never equal PPG for the team due to DNP's.

To do what you attempting, it is necessary to estimate the total number of points a player scores over the course of the season and not just average the amount scored in the games played in.

For example, last season Jake Voskuhl averaged 2.1 ppg; but only 80 for the entire season due to being in just 38 games. His points per available game was just under 1 ppg. Paul Shirley scored only 12 points the entire season, and Outlaw only 29.

IMHO, the way to model the scoring average prior to overtime is to look a the points per minute for each player times the estimated number of minutes projected to allocate the 19,680 non-overtime minutes in the season. The next step would be to estimate how many overtime games would be played and only use PP minute numbers from the top six guys.

 

[boisesuns]

Interesting thoughts AF. We had a thread like this a while ago, and people seemed to think scoring will go down. I agree with some of your thoughts about the ppg. Depending on who we play, I think it might change the lineup and even the mins played, so the scoring might be up for some people that you projected.

Our solid starters will most likley be:
KT
Amare
Marion
Nash

This leaves the shooting guard position open for change epending on who we play. I actually think Jones, Bell, and Jackson will start games in this spot depending on who we play and how the matchups work. Jackson, Jones and Bell could all give rest to anyone playing positions 1-3. One of them will start at SG, and the others along with House, Diaw, and Barbosa will be available for filling in when needed. Having these guys on the bench will be great.

I have a feeling Jones will overage over 10 ppg, and he will be very effective in this system. I'm stil not sure with Diaw, but in tis system, you can get open looks and chances to score, so i can't rle out him being effective.

When any of the big three go to the bench, i think we will be able to support a lead better with the guys we have.

 

[Joe Mama]

Interesting thoughts AF. We had a thread like this a while ago, and people seemed to think scoring will go down. I agree with some of your thoughts about the ppg. Depending on who we play, I think it might change the lineup and even the mins played, so the scoring might be up for some people that you projected.

Our solid starters will most likley be:
KT
Amare
Marion
Nash

This leaves the shooting guard position open for change epending on who we play. I actually think Jones, Bell, and Jackson will start games in this spot depending on who we play and how the matchups work. Jackson, Jones and Bell could all give rest to anyone playing positions 1-3. One of them will start at SG, and the others along with House, Diaw, and Barbosa will be available for filling in when needed. Having these guys on the bench will be great.

I have a feeling Jones will overage over 10 ppg, and he will be very effective in this system. I'm stil not sure with Diaw, but in tis system, you can get open looks and chances to score, so i can't rle out him being effective.

When any of the big three go to the bench, i think we will be able to support a lead better with the guys we have.

From what I've seen Jones is no more a shooting guard than Shawn Marion is. I believe the shooting guard position will come down to Bell (starting), Jim Jackson, Barbosa, House, and occasionally Diaw. There's really only one player on the team who can be penciled into one position only. That's Steve Nash at point guard.

Joe Mama

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Adding up the PPG per player will never equal PPG for the team due to DNP's.

To do what you attempting, it is necessary to estimate the total number of points a player scores over the course of the season and not just average the amount scored in the games played in.

For example, last season Jake Voskuhl averaged 2.1 ppg; but only 80 for the entire season due to being in just 38 games. His points per available game was just under 1 ppg. Paul Shirley scored only 12 points the entire season, and Outlaw only 29.

IMHO, the way to model the scoring average prior to overtime is to look a the points per minute for each player times the estimated number of minutes projected to allocate the 19,680 non-overtime minutes in the season. The next step would be to estimate how many overtime games would be played and only use PP minute numbers from the top six guys.

That makes sense....Thanks George!

I'm glad you numbers guy our here to validate/devalidate big idea guys like me who get their info strictly through observation and casual statistical analysis

 

[reader]

AF, have you worked out any new numbers yet?

 

[Errntknght]

My guess is that KT will score significantly more than he ever has before in his career as he figures to be the biggest beneficiary of all the attention Amare is going to draw. His defender will usually be the opponent that has secondary responsibility for Amare - Amare draws the better 1on1 big defender and Kurt draws the better paint defender. So not only will his man be the main help against Amare, he'll be the main help against anyone getting into the paint. So KT will be open a good bit for his mid-range jumper and have a relatively open path to the offensive boards.

I also think the oppenents are going to force Nash to score more, by focussing on bottling up Amare on the P&R as Dallas did. But guess who's defender is going to under the gun when Stevie comes tooling into the lane... yep, Kurt's again. Now we should have some wings streaking the baseline to give Nash even better targets and KT might be occupied setting screens for them but if that maneuver gets covered by good defense, KT steps out as a secondary target.

Thomas also figures to get some opportunities on the secondary break, assuming he shoots well pulling up. (I was impressed that Bryan recognized that possibility for his new acquisition in his recent chat.)

Quite a few people have talked about Nash and Thomas running a 'pick and pop' play but I don't particularly like it. Because it is not that great of an opportunity when it works and it involves Nash, who we want to conserve. If KT is on the floor with another guy at point then by all means use it because we don't figure to get better opportunities then. It's an easier play to run than a pick and roll, especially for a tall guard like Boris or JJack and it gives us a useful play when Nash is resting.

I prefer a similar play - the two man game with Amare and Kurt. It's essentially a pick and pop that starts with Amare faced up within his shooting range (last years shooting range). With Amare able to go left as well as right I can't see how teams are going to defend this play without conceding a switch, which is of course why we run the play. If Amare's man backs off a little then Kurt pops on through and Amare's defender screens Kurt's or they switch. If his man doesn't back off then Kurt and his defender form a double screen for Amare, forcing a switch again. Nash can be resting out at the three point line, daring his man to try leaving to annoy Amare.

 

[George O'Brien]

It will be interesting to see how opponents try to defense the Suns half court offense. My guess is that they will try to mix it up and have different guys do the double team on different plays to slow up the recognition.

Recognition involves not only the guy being doubled, but the guy being left. A player that just "stands there" is often not open long due to rotation, so he should be prepared to move and find an open lane to receive a pass - something the Suns did not do much of last season.