Suns/JJ close to deal

[lancelet's cousin]

By Mike Tulumello,

Tribune July 7, 2005

The decision to leave Joe Johnson unsigned in October will prove costly to the Suns.
The club, as expected, has made an offer to the restricted free agent, an NBA source said. The six-year offer is believed to be in the range of $10 million a year.

The club made an offer to Johnson last fall that was believed to be in the range of $8 million a year, but the two sides couldn’t reach an agreement. Johnson said later that they were "close" to a deal.

The Suns are hoping they won’t be forced to match a maximum offer made by another team.

Such teams as Atlanta, Cleveland and the Los Angeles Clippers are believed to be interested in Johnson. They can only give Johnson a five-year contract under NBA rules, but it could reach up to the range of $13 million or so per season.
Such teams as Atlanta, Cleveland and the Los Angeles Clippers are believed to be interested in Johnson. They can only give Johnson a five-year contract under NBA rules, but it could reach up to the range of $13 million or so per season.

But once a team makes the offer, its money is tied up while the Suns decide whether to match. If they do, then the team making the offer could come away with little or nothing, while other teams sign the other available free agents.

LINK

Edit to add: Sorry for the misleading title. I thought the article said that the 10 mil/yr offer was being described as "close" by JJ.

 

[cly2tw]

I expect it will get done for 11mil a year like Nash's.

 

[Joe Mama]

I expect it will get done for 11mil a year like Nash's.

that's pretty optimistic. I think he will eventually sign for a 6-year deal that average is the same per season as the maximum contract offers he would get from other teams. Otherwise he'll just sign a maximum offer sheet with another team and let the Phoenix Suns match. Only when that happens the other team might do things like front load the contract to try to dissuade the Phoenix Suns from matching.

I don't even understand why they would bother to offer a deal that averages $10 million per season at this point.

Joe Mama

 

[cly2tw]

that's pretty optimistic. I think he will eventually sign for a 6-year deal that average is the same per season as the maximum contract offers he would get from other teams. Otherwise he'll just sign a maximum offer sheet with another team and let the Phoenix Suns match. Only when that happens the other team might do things like front load the contract to try to dissuade the Phoenix Suns from matching.

I don't even understand why they would bother to offer a deal that averages $10 million per season at this point.

Joe Mama

I don't follow your logic. Why would anybody bother to offer Joe a contract knowing the Suns will match it. If the max from the other were 13milx5y=65mil while Suns offered 66mil over 6y, what part of the situation would make any team believe that Suns wouldn't match, front loaded or not? They offered Q a front-loaded one if I'm not mistaken. Enlighten me!

 

[wilkinshui]

part of the suns game, i never think the suns really meant to match any offer especially if it is max.. to me, they are trying to bluff so that they could save few millions from the contract

team who buy this might be reluctant to lock in resources so they might miss out other players they want..

 

[Joe Mama]

I don't follow your logic. Why would anybody bother to offer Joe a contract knowing the Suns will match it. If the max from the other were 13milx5y=65mil while Suns offered 66mil over 6y, what part of the situation would make any team believe that Suns wouldn't match, front loaded or not? They offered Q a front-loaded one if I'm not mistaken. Enlighten me!

Well, if these $10 million per season reports are accurate the Phoenix Suns apparently "lowballed" JJ with their first offer. There's no way he's going to settle for $60 million over 6 years when it's likely another team would give him as much money total over 5 years. Like I said in my last post. I'm not even sure why they would bother with that offer.

Mostly I think another team would offer him a maximum contract as a last shot at landing a prize free-agent. There's a good chance teams like Cleveland, Atlanta, etc. are going to be left in the cold without much to show for their money. Sure, they could settle by overpaying someone like Bobby Simmons, but I don't see the problem with taking a shot at JJ. At worst they lose a week of free agency... late in the free agency game... and force an opponent to pay high dollar to retain their man.

I'm sure a contract averaging $11 million per season is not going to get it done when there are other teams willing to offer another deal at $13 million per season. Ultimately I think they'll have to give him something that average is the same per season as any other team can offer, but the Phoenix Suns offer we'll have that 6th year.

Joe Mama

 

[cly2tw]

Sure, they could settle by overpaying someone like Bobby Simmons, but I don't see the problem with taking a shot at JJ. At worst they lose a week of free agency... late in the free agency game... and force an opponent to pay high dollar to retain their man.

I'm sure a contract averaging $11 million per season is not going to get it done when there are other teams willing to offer another deal at $13 million per season. Ultimately I think they'll have to give him something that average is the same per season as any other team can offer, but the Phoenix Suns offer we'll have that 6th year.

Joe Mama

I'm sure you are sure but just don't understand how you could be so confident in your belief.

Even they missed their first priorities, those teams would have no reason to mess up with the Suns by extending that contract knowing fully well their's would get matched. And Suns would be in even better position if it turned out in the first week of signing period that no team had any cap left for Joe's max demand. Then, Suns could dictate the price compared to now when both parties were subject to risk that the situation might turn against them. It's common knowledge that nobody in this year's FA market really deserves the max. Compared to Nash, Parker, Manu's contracts, even 10mil per is fair. If nobody offered the max to Joe yet he rejected the 10mil per offer from the Suns to take the qualifying tender, nobody would blame the Suns as being unfair but Joe for greedy and stupid. The risk for him would be simply too high for that little gain.

 

[elindholm]

Johnson is not a max player. There can't be too many teams who think he is, no matter how desperate they get. It's possible another team will offer him the max if he stays on the market forever, but I'd bet against it.

 

[Joe Mama]

I'm sure you are sure but just don't understand how you could be so confident in your belief.

Even they missed their first priorities, those teams would have no reason to mess up with the Suns by extending that contract knowing fully well their's would get matched. And Suns would be in even better position if it turned out in the first week of signing period that no team had any cap left for Joe's max demand. Then, Suns could dictate the price compared to now when both parties were subject to risk that the situation might turn against them. It's common knowledge that nobody in this year's FA market really deserves the max. Compared to Nash, Parker, Manu's contracts, even 10mil per is fair. If nobody offered the max to Joe yet he rejected the 10mil per offer from the Suns to take the qualifying tender, nobody would blame the Suns as being unfair but Joe for greedy and stupid. The risk for him would be simply too high for that little gain.

Ray Allen just got a contract that averages $16 million per season. He'll be 30 years old when the next season starts. There've been reports that JJ would actually be the most sought after free-agent this summary if he wasn't restricted. Now I agree that none of these guys are actually worth the maximum contracts, but that doesn't mean they won't get them. There are teams out there with money who will be willing to overspend by a couple million dollars per season to get the guy they want... Cleveland in particular. I would throw Atlanta into that group as well.

If other teams are truly willing to spend the max on JJ the suns initial offer of $10 million per might tell those other teams that there's a chance that Phoenix won't really be willing to go to the max like they've been saying.

I figure Michael Redd is the next chip to fall. After that it wouldn't surprise me if one of these teams signed JJ to a max contract to test the Phoenix Suns resolve. If they don't want to spend big money on a guy like Larry Hughes or Bobby Simmons there's nothing to lose in signing JJ.

Joe Mama

 

[cly2tw]

If other teams are truly willing to spend the max on JJ the suns initial offer of $10 million per might tell those other teams that there's a chance that Phoenix won't really be willing to go to the max like they've been saying.

If they were unwilling to match, they'd do what NJ did last year with Martin, just wait. It'd be stupid to show your hand so early. You won't tell me that teh Suns' resolve to match looks more like a bluff than NJ's postures last year did, will you? To the contrary, this offer by Suns revealed that they were confident they already deterred all potential suitors for Joe. This is exactly what the institution of restricted free agency was designed for: to give the original team all the power not forced to overpay their RFA. And mind you, in the end, Denver gave in and gave whatever NJ wanted to get Martin.

 

[Joe Mama]

If they were unwilling to match, they'd do what NJ did last year with Martin, just wait. It'd be stupid to show your hand so early. You won't tell me that teh Suns' resolve to match looks more like a bluff than NJ's postures last year did, will you? To the contrary, this offer by Suns revealed that they were confident they already deterred all potential suitors for Joe. This is exactly what the institution of restricted free agency was designed for: to give the original team all the power not forced to overpay their RFA. And mind you, in the end, Denver gave in and gave whatever NJ wanted to get Martin.

they think they've scared off all the other suitors, so they offer the same total money as the max from another team with an extra year? Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

Again, I'm not saying that the Phoenix Suns aren't willing to match a maximum offer for Joe Johnson. In fact I believe they probably are. I just think if the other free agents that you really want are off the market there's nothing to lose by testing the Phoenix Suns resolve. What are you going to lose? A week at the end of July when there really isn't anybody else you want still on the table?

Why he would show Johnson accept a six-year deal from the Phoenix Suns that averages $11 million per season when he could force them to match a five-year deal for a few million dollars less in total? The simple answer is he wouldn't.

Joe Mama

 

[JPlay]

JJ is not a max player. Everyone had a career year when Nash came aboard, teams realize that.

 

[frdbtr]

Johnson is not a max player. There can't be too many teams who think he is, no matter how desperate they get. It's possible another team will offer him the max if he stays on the market forever, but I'd bet against it.

Good post, Frankly I think that $10 million per is too much for Joe Johnson. He only averaged 15pts per game last year. He is a very good player and will get better with time but he is not currently a max player. Having said that, if some team is stupid enough to offer it to him the Suns would be even more stupid to not match it. The Suns Need Joe back, he is one of the core players to this team that should win championships in the next few years.

 

[Joe Mama]

Remember that I've been questioning how valuable JJ really is for some time. I really want the Phoenix Suns to get him back, but I agree that he is not a max player. The problem I think is that there are teams out there that would be willing to overpay to get him.

I would not have said this last year, but I think JJ is more of a max player than Redd is. There were at least two teams willing to give him a maximum contract. There's little doubt in my mind that the Cleveland Cavaliers would offer JJ a maximum contract if he was an unrestricted free agent, and that's what it was going to take to get him.

Joe Mama

 

[fordronken]

Redd isn't a max player either, and in fact, I'd rather have JJ than Redd.

 

[Joe Mama]

Redd isn't a max player either, and in fact, I'd rather have JJ than Redd.

Yep, that's exactly what I said a couple posts ago. Not only did Cleveland supposedly offer the max for him, but Milwaukee has offered their maximum which I've believe averages $15 million per season.

It's a weak free-agent market, and there are plenty of teams with money they want to spend.

Joe Mama

 

[Gaddabout]

The problem with JJ is he is the Suns second best young player on a team that is suddenly not so young. He could end up like Marion (productive but overpaid), but you can't give up great young talent like that on the open market. They just traded their started two-guard to re-sign him. Now they're boxed in and really don't have much of a choice but to match whatever other teams might offer.

 

[sunsfn]

The problem with JJ is he is the Suns second best young player on a team that is suddenly not so young. He could end up like Marion (productive but overpaid), but you can't give up great young talent like that on the open market. They just traded their started two-guard to re-sign him. Now they're boxed in and really don't have much of a choice but to match whatever other teams might offer.

I believe the suns would have made the trade of Q for Kurt Thomas even if they would have signed JJ last year to a lesser contract.

They had to go big and are commited to getting help for Amare, and have signed an excellent player in Bell that will get starter minutes with the suns.


-

 

[coloradosun]

The problem with JJ is he is the Suns second best young player on a team that is suddenly not so young. He could end up like Marion (productive but overpaid), but you can't give up great young talent like that on the open market. They just traded their started two-guard to re-sign him. Now they're boxed in and really don't have much of a choice but to match whatever other teams might offer.

I agree with Sunsfan, the Suns would have made the Q for KT trade no matter what, D'A even stated that he had been after Kurt for a long time.

JJ has much more versatility than Marion, Marion does not bring the ball up, does not shoot a high percentage of 3's. Some of the production that JJ has will not show up in all of the boxscores. You are going to be buying a backup point guard and a shooting guard, two for one.

And JJ was the starting 2 guard not Q.

They are not boxed in, if some team really wants JJ a sign and trade is always an option.

 

[George O'Brien]

Swift ended up getting no offers last summer. Miles got no offers and eventually signed with the Blazers. Neither are in JJ's clas, but both played on teams that were emphatic about matching any offers.

The Cavs have a lot of cap space, but they also have a lot of needs. Redd is still a big name in Ohio because of playing at Ohio State so his marquis value is very high. At this point, Huges looks to be the hot product and he is reported to be unhappy with the Wizzards management.