Suns targeting Batista

[hafey]

The numbers certainly don't support the commonly held conception that KT slowed Duncan down. Duncan torched the Suns for about 26 ppg on 57% shooting along with 13 rebounds and over 4 blocks.

 

[elindholm]

Duncan torched the Suns for about 26 ppg on 57% shooting

Right -- about 50% against Thomas, and about 75% against everyone else.

 

[Chaplin]

What? Surely this is a joke.

Joe

Why do you say that? KT had no bearing in our loss to the Spurs. He was brought in to stop Tim Duncan. He didn't do that.

 

[Chaplin]

Right -- about 50% against Thomas, and about 75% against everyone else.

Please tell me you got this from a reliable source and not the "Eric book of unofficial stats".

 

[hafey]

I would really like to see the numbers of Duncan with Kurt Thomas guarding him and without.

 

[elindholm]

Please tell me you got this from a reliable source and not the "Eric book of unofficial stats".

No, I'm eyeballing it, but my guess is that the difference was about that pronounced. Or, it may not be, since when Thomas was off the floor, the Suns did more doubling, leading to easy scores for the guards.

I am very confident, however, that the Spurs' offensive efficiency -- measured in points per possession, including second and third shots, not field goal efficiency -- was much higher when Thomas was not on the floor. I would also guess that Thomas had the third best plus-minus on the Suns, behind Nash and Stoudemire.

 

[PetryJr]

No, I'm eyeballing it, but my guess is that the difference was about that pronounced. Or, it may not be, since when Thomas was off the floor, the Suns did more doubling, leading to easy scores for the guards.

I am very confident, however, that the Spurs' offensive efficiency -- measured in points per possession, including second and third shots, not field goal efficiency -- was much higher when Thomas was not on the floor. I would also guess that Thomas had the third best plus-minus on the Suns, behind Nash and Stoudemire.

Well, according to 82games.com, with Thomas on the floor, the Suns allowed 100.0 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs. Without him, the Suns allowed 110.0 points per 100 possessions, so the difference in their efficiency defensively is pretty clear. Of course, these numbers also include the Lakers series, but he played only 55 minutes in that series, compared to 150 minutes against the Spurs.

By the way, the Suns' offense scored 110.4 per 100 possessions with him, and 113.1 without him.

 

[elindholm]

Well, according to 82games.com, with Thomas on the floor, the Suns allowed 100.0 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs. Without him, the Suns allowed 110.0 points per 100 possessions, so the difference in their efficiency defensively is pretty clear. Of course, these numbers also include the Lakers series, but he played only 55 minutes in that series, compared to 150 minutes against the Spurs.

By the way, the Suns' offense scored 110.4 per 100 possessions with him, and 113.1 without him.

Well there you go then. That's pretty clear.

Throughout the playoffs, the Suns outscored their opponents 110.4 to 100.0 (+10.4) per 100 possessions with Thomas on the floor, and only 113.1 to 110.0 (+3.1) with him on the bench.

Now figure that the Suns outscored the Lakers handily, mainly without Thomas. So the no-Thomas numbers are inflated by that weaker opponent, whereas the with-Thomas numbers don't get as much of the same effect.

What you get then is that the Suns were, bottom line, a much better team against the Spurs with Thomas than without him.

Statistics can be misleading, but I think one would be hard-pressed to make the case that they are here.

 

[mribnik]

My thoughts on this matter haven't changed. I agree with elindholm that Thomas helped the team a lot against the Spurs. However, I don't give Thomas himself as much of the credit as he does. IMO, KT's value was that he was a big man that D'Antoni was willing to play and that allowed Amare to stay out of foul trouble. I don't think his defensive abilities actually helped that much against the Spurs. Duncan still had his way with him. Perhaps it took Duncan a few extra seconds to back him down but I don't see that as a reason to keep an 8 million dollar contract, especially since it costs the Suns double.

Unless the Suns get PJ Brown, they won't be getting someone as skilled as KT was, but IMO as long as D'Antoni is willing to play him against the Spurs (a big if) someone like Skinner is a much better value and I don't think the Suns will lose nearly as much as some think they will.

Also, and I'm sure I'm in the minority with this one, I agree to some extent with D'Antoni that playing KT takes away from the Suns style and gives into the Spurs plan a bit. I was always part of the group that said that KT wouldn't slow us down because you have to get rebounds in order to run and 5 man fast breaks don't happen very often, but I still think the offense isn't nearly as efficient with him in there. While I doubt it's possible, I would much rather have an offensive-minded big who can spread the floor against the Spurs, like Tim Thomas. Damn I wish we kept him.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The problem against the Spurs was when Thomas was not on the floor. For whatever reason, DAntoni considered playing Thomas a concession to the Spurs style and really resented doing it.

I like watching KT play interior D, so whenever he was in the game, I would watch him very closely. His fundamentals on D are flawless and I was looking for clips to use in coaching my boy on interior D. Believe me, KT frustrated Duncan. As soon as he went out, Duncan walked about freely.

I really like DAntoni and I like his playing style. But he can be a bit stubborn. When its the playoffs and the refs are clearly allowing a bruising physical game, you have to be willing to make adjustments for the sake of the win.

 

[azirish]

KT did a pretty good job and I'd like the Suns to get someone who can do some of what he did. My feeling is that Skinner is the best bet because while he can't shoot, he won't slow the team down.

 

[Cheesebeef]

The numbers certainly don't support the commonly held conception that KT slowed Duncan down. Duncan torched the Suns for about 26 ppg on 57% shooting along with 13 rebounds and over 4 blocks.

and in the one game where KT barely played, Duncan scored 33 points, shot 15 fts, grabbed 16 boards and had 3 blocks.

 

[Chaplin]

Don't get me wrong, I would have rather kept KT, but he wasn't the Duncan-stopper everyone thought he was. Whether that was because of age, or KT's defensive ability, or Mike D's coaching, it was what it was. Joe disagrees, but there is nothing that proves that KT proved to be a valuable asset against the Spurs, unfortunately.

 

[mribnik]

and in the one game where KT barely played, Duncan scored 33 points, shot 15 fts, grabbed 16 boards and had 3 blocks.

I don't really see the problem with that. Letting Duncan have his isn't the problem, it's letting Ginoboli and Parker go off as well. In fact, and I've heard Spurs fans say this as well, when the Spurs repeatedly run their "4 down" play the team often struggles because nobody else gets involved. Isn't that how the Frank Johnson coached Suns gave the Spurs fits that one year? They let Duncan get his and Marbury abused Parker. The teams are a little different now, but when you can't stop Duncan regardless, perhaps it's best not to change the makeup of your team to try to defend him. In that way, D'Antoni may be correct.

 

[azirish]

Considering that I wanted the Suns to play KT in the Spurs series and did not want to trade him, I'd like to say that the Suns lost due to KT's minimal minutes in game 1. However, I'm not sure that is the only reason. Another problem was that the Suns offense did not play very well in game 1.

In game 1 (106-111), the Spurs shot 50% from the field and had a big advantage on the boards. But they won by only 5 points in a game where the Suns shot very badly (by their standards at least).

Amare went just 6 of 19 (31.6%). In the other four games, he shot 40 of 73 for 54.8%.

Bell shot 3 of 8 (2 of 4 were for three). In his other five games he shot 24 of 46 for 52% and 50% for three.

Barbosa shot just 7 of 17 including 0 of 5 for three. He did not shoot well the entire series after averaging 47.6% for the season..

Jones played only 9 minutes, but missed both of his shots.

Diaw did not shoot much (3 of 5 in 25 minutes). but his shooting got worse for a subpar series.

The guys who played well in game 1 were Nash and Marion. Nash shot 11 of 18 for 61% but would shoot only 45.3% (34 of 75) for the rest of the series. Marion shot 7 of 12 for 58% in game 1 and continued to have a good series shooting over 50% (he took only 2 three point shots and hit one of them).

The bottom line for Game 1 was that the Suns shot only 46.4%. That is not horrible, but clearly not enough when the Spurs shoot 50%.

Game 2 (101-81), the Suns shot 52.6%

Game 3, (101-108) the Suns shot 48.7% (Amare played only 21 minutes and still shot 7 of 11)

Game 4, (104-98) the Suns shot 48.1% despite Barbosa shooting just 4 of 13. BTW, The Suns out rebounded the Spurs 42-32 despite KT getting only 5 rebounds)

Game 5, (85-88) the Suns shot 40.3% despite Barbosa shooting just 3 of 12, Nash just 6 of 19, and Bell just 4 of 11.

Game 6, (106-114) the Suns shot 48.2% despite Barbosa shooting just 5 of 15.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Spurs

Game 1 (41 of 82 for 50%) (7 of 16 for 43.8% for three) (22 of 33 FT)

Game 2 (33 of 77 for 42.9%) (6 of 18 for 33% for three) (9 of 16 FT)

Game 3 (36 of 82 for 43.9%) (7 of 20 for 35% for three) (29 of 36 FT) The Spurs won the game at the line on a day the Suns shot badly at 18 of 27)

Game 4 (38 of 80 for 47.5%) (9 of 23 for 39.1% for three) (13 of 14 FT)

Game 5 (29 of 72 for 40%) (8 of 23 for 34.8% for three) (22 of 28 FT) Parker shot 5 of 13.

Game 6 (43 of 88 for 48.9%) (7 of 22 for 31.8% for three) (21-30 FT)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
In three of the five games KT started, the Suns did a good job in terms of defensive shooting percentage. In two other games they didn't really do a great job, but won one of them because the Suns got to the line more than the Spurs.

KT did contribute. It seems like he very effective in some of the games but clearly struggled in game 6: 4 fouls in 17 minutes, 2 of 6 shooting, 3 rebounds and 2 turnovers. Perhaps playing 36 minutes in game 5 wore him out.

The strongest argument for playing big against the Spurs was Tony Parker's shooting.

Game 1 - 14 of 22 for 63.6%
Game 2 - 5 of 14 for 35.7%
Game 3 - 7 of 18 for 38.9%
Game 4 - 9 of 19 for 47.4%
Game 5 - 5 of 13 for 38.5%
Game 6 - 11 of 27 for 40.7%

One final thought. Part of the problem with the Suns playing small was that their small lineup was not very effective. Diaw was especially unimpressive in the series, shooting just 12 of 28 and grabbing only 3.6 rpg in 20.8 minutes.

And while Jones shooting percentage looks good at 61.5%, his passivity did not. In game 1, Jones went 0 for 2. He did not take a shot in games 2 and 3 while taking only 1 shot in game 4. Even in game 5 when he played 29 minutes out of necessity, he scored only 9 points (4 of 6 shooting). His 3 of 4 shooting in game 6 in 21 minutes was probably his best game.

Throw in a banged up Barbosa who had a misserable series and it is amazing how close the Suns made the series. In any case, there was not great offensive advantage to playing small.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Don't get me wrong, I would have rather kept KT, but he wasn't the Duncan-stopper everyone thought he was.

uh, who thought he was "Duncan-STOPPER" - no one - because there isn't one. But what KT did do was make Duncan work, allow us not to double team and he was able to stick the outside J, thus not disrupting the offense. You're making up hyperbolic arguments that no one's saying to prove an exaggerated polnt that there was "no proof that he was a valuable asset", even though after we got torched in Game 1 (as usual) when KT barely played, playing heavy minutes the next three games, we won 2 of 3 and then down two players, we actually almost beat them again, with KT limiting Duncan to his worst game of the series. Yeah, that seems to make KT to look like a completely unvaluable asset. Good lord.

 

[elindholm]

but there is nothing that proves that KT proved to be a valuable asset against the Spurs, unfortunately.

Except all of the data. It stops short of literal "proof," of course, but the evidence is overwhelming.

 

[Mainstreet]

KT was very serviceable playing defense against Duncan. Could he stop Duncan? Of course not. I was not a big fan of KT prior to the SA series, however, I believe my eyes. KT showed me how position defense should be played and he could slow down Duncan in the half court. At least he made Duncan work for his points inside. I agree with Mribnik. It's letting the other Spurs have their way, e.g., Parker and Ginobili, that killed the Suns.

 

[Chaplin]

Except all of the data. It stops short of literal "proof," of course, but the evidence is overwhelming.

Which data are you referring to? There is no "overwhelming" evidence. This is just heresay to overemphasize how much you hated the KT trade.

 

[Mulli]

Which data are you referring to? There is no "overwhelming" evidence. This is just heresay to overemphasize how much you hated the KT trade.

yep

 

[elindholm]

Which data are you referring to? There is no "overwhelming" evidence. This is just heresay to overemphasize how much you hated the KT trade.

Did you read the thread? Check out posts #57 and #58. The Suns' scoring differential improved by 7.3 points per 100 possessions when Thomas was on the floor, and it was even more pronounced against the Spurs than against the Lakers. That's certainly not hearsay, and yeah, it is pretty overwhelming.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Did you read the thread? Check out posts #57 and #58. The Suns' scoring differential improved by 7.3 points per 100 possessions when Thomas was on the floor, and it was even more pronounced against the Spurs than against the Lakers. That's certainly not hearsay, and yeah, it is pretty overwhelming.

yeah, not sure how the data pointed to is "heresay". You keep using that wherd. I do not think you not what the wherd means.