sunsfn 11/04/2004 report

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Thursday, November 4, 2004

By Chad Ford
NBA Insider


Will the Bobcats be the worst team in the history of the NBA?
That seems to be the growing consensus around the league after watching the team in the preseason. Yes, they went 3-5 in October, but that just means that the Bobcats' starters outplayed guys trying to make other teams.
Once the real season tips off tonight in Charlotte, everyone is expecting the Bobcats to be in for a world of hurt.
You can understand why. Four of their projected starting five – Gerald Wallace, Jason Kapono, Emeka Okafor and Primoz Brezec – have a combined 22 starts in their career. Their other starter, Brevin Knight, averaged a whopping 4.7 ppg and 3.6 apg last year.
Wallace, who many people feel could be the breakout star on this team, averaged 2 ppg and 2 rpg for the Kings last year. Brezec, who has looked like their best player in the preseason, averaged 1.6 ppg and .8 rpg for the Pacers.
Their bench – led by Melvin Ely, Tamar Slay, Eddie House, Keith Bogans and Jason Hart – averaged an underwhelming 4 ppg combined last year.
Their only three veterans – Knight, Steve Smith and Jahidi White – averaged a mere 4.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg and 1.7 apg last season. And Smith and White aren't even expected to play much.
Their head coach, Bernie Bickerstaff, doesn't have the strongest track record either. His career record in the 1990s (the last time he coached a team was during the 1998-99 season) is 136-140. That isn't terrible by any stretch of the imagination, but he isn't Jerry Sloan, either.
On paper, they are the worst team that's ever been assembled. The Bobcats know this. This team doesn't care about their victory total this year. They're interested in finding two or three young players to build around. They want to go into next summer with the top pick in the draft and a boat load of cap room.
That's the goal, whether they win 10 games or 20 games is irrelevant.
I hate to crash the party of those ready to put them on par with the NBA's worst team ever – the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers – but before we start nailing the coffin closed on the Bobcats' inaugural season it might be time for a reality check.
Yes, the Bobcats are going to be bad. But nine victories bad? I don't buy it and here's why.

Talent

You might not recognize the faces on the Bobcats roster, but that doesn't necessarily mean the players stink. Guys like Brezec, Wallace and Hart, in particular, struggled to get off the bench on deep, veteran teams.



The tandem of Wallace (with ball) and Brezec could be more effective than you think.
In the preseason, they seemed far better than their career numbers might suggest.
Brezec has been the best of the group, averaging 13.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg on 52 percent shooting from the field. Pacers' executive Larry Bird was distraught when the Bobcats selected Brezec. He would have been protected, but the Pacers were so deep they had to leave someone on the list. Brezec is big (7-1), very skilled, especially in the high post, and, according to Bickerstaff, one of the hardest workers he's ever coached.
Wallace is a fantastic athlete who is a jump shot away from becoming a star.
His 10.7 ppg and his 41 percent shooting from the field don't jump out at you, but he also averaged 6.1 rpg, 3.3 apg and 1.9 spg. He had a huge 26-point, 12-rebound, 5-assist performance against the Wizards in October. They just happen to be the Bobcats' opening-night opponent. Most importantly, Wallace has improved immensely on the defensive end. He has the potential to be a lockdown defender with his size and athletic ability.
Okafor is the other reason for Bobcats' fans to have hope. He has the potential to win the Rookie of the Year. His averages in the preseason, 9.6 ppg and 4.4 rpg, were modest, but everyone expects him to improve. Offensively he's further ahead of the curve than people expected. Defensively, he's capable of being a dominant force in the paint.
The latest pickup, Bogans, should also give the team a boost. Bogans had a solid rookie season for the Magic last year averaging 6.8 ppg and 4.3 rpg in limited minutes. He should work his way into the starting lineup (with Wallace moving to the three) in a few weeks. He's got a nice stroke from the perimeter and is an excellent rebounder for a guard.
A few others like Kapono, Ely and House should also end up making significant contributions. Kapono is one of the best pure shooters in the league; Ely has the ability to score in the paint; and Eddie, when he's on, can burn down the House.

Defense

When people talk about the dilution of talent in the NBA, what they're really talking about is the waning of offensive production in the NBA. Scoring had dipped 17.4 ppg over the past two decades lending to the impression that the league's talent, due to expansion and a draft that keeps getting younger and younger, just isn't what it used to be.
That's hogwash.
With the influx of international players that weren't there in the 1980s along with the growing popularity of the game here, the NBA's talent level isn't any worse than it was in the '80s. In fact, it might be better. What is different is the way the game is played.
In the '80s, teams played at a furious pace, flying up and down the floor and leading to a handful of teams averaging more than 117 ppg in a season.
Now coaches slow things down, limiting the number of chances teams have to score. The fastbreak is almost a lost art, not because teams don't want to run, but because coaches finally convinced players to get back on defense.
The NBA often values athletes over more skilled players because the athletes lend themselves to defense. If a team can keep a game close, in the 70s for example, it always has a chance to pull out a victory.
That's how a miserable 2002-03 Nuggets team that started Junior Harrington and Vincent Yarbrough together in their back court (two guys who aren't even in the league anymore) won 17 games. In their 17 victories, they held their opponents to an average of 80.2 ppg.
The Bobcats will attempt to do the same thing. Bickerstaff drafted and signed athletes who had the ability to get back on defense, aggressively defend the perimeter with their athleticism and length, and then he added five players 6-9 or taller to keep folks out of the paint.
He'll demand maximum effort every night, and he should get it from this team. Their careers are riding on their performance.
Offensively, they might be awful. But if they can do what the Nuggets did, and keep teams at or below 80 points per night (something they did in two of their three wins in the preseason), the Bobcats have a fighting chance to pull out a few close ones in the court.

The competition

The NBA also did a huge favor to the Bobcats when they put them in the Eastern Conference's weakest division, the Southeast.



David Stern (left) welcomed new Bobcats' owner Robert Johnson (center) and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory to the league in 2003.
Had they been stuck in the West (if New Orleans had refused to move, for example) then the nine-victory record might have fallen. In the Southeast Division? The gap isn't that big between the Bobcats and another bottom feeder – the Hawks.
While the Hawks have a few more go-to scorers than the Bobcats do, they aren't nearly as balanced and don't have the defenders Charlotte does. If the preseason and Wednesday night's game were any indication, they're going to be awful.
The Wizards, too, should be a team that the Bobcats have a chance against in their division. While they are improved with Antawn Jamison, they still have a long way to go, especially on the defensive end.
The other good news for the Bobcats is that they play the Bulls four times this year. Chicago is the type of team that can be great one night and awful the next. The Bulls still lack focus. Catch them on the right night, and add a W to the Bobcats' victory column.
The other good news is that they'll catch the Nets twice before Jason Kidd returns. If you watched their pathetic performance on Wednesday, you know that the difference between these Nets and an expansion team is razor thin. If the Nets trade Kidd, then add another two winnable games to the Bobcats' tally.
Those are just the teams that we know they have a fighting chance against. They'll also benefit, a night or two, from a team coming in on a back-to-back and exploit the advantage with their fresh young legs.
Do the math, and winning 10 games not only seems doable, it would be hard not to win at least that many games.

History

The Sixers lost their record 73 games in the 1972-73 season. In the past 10 years, the closest a team came was the 1997-98 Nuggets. They won 11 games. Johnny Newman was the leading scorer on that team. Danny Forston, Anthony Goldwire and Bobby Jackson were the rest of the core. The Bobcats are at least as good as that, aren't they?
As far as expansion teams go, every expansion team from 1988 to present has won a minimum of 15 games its inaugural season. That includes such stinkers as the 1988 Heat with Kevin Edwards as their leading scorer. That team lost its first 17 games and still managed to win 15 games.
The 1989 Orlando Magic were led by Terry Catledge and Otis Smith and they won 18 games. The 1995 Grizzlies began their franchise with Greg Anthony, Benoit Benjamin and Bryant Reeves and scored 15 victories.
There's recent history here too.
Let's not forget last year's debacle when the media rushed to declare the 2003-04 version of the Jazz as a contender for the worst team ever. The Jazz won 42 games.
The Bucks were considered equally bad and they won 41.
In other words, the media's track record in predicting the worst teams ever isn't what I'd call stellar. We overestimate star power and devalue teamwork, defense and chemistry. The Bobcats have none of the former, but enough of the latter to give a few teams a run for their money.

15 victories

Where does that leave this year's Bobcats? I spent some time in Charlotte during training camp watching the team. There is no pressure on this team to win. The emphasis is on playing hard.
Players usually thrive in that environment. The expectations are realistic and everyone has a strong motivation to perform at the highest level.
Having watched some of the other bad teams in the league in person, like the Hawks and Nets, I don't think the divide is as wide as people think.
My best guess, and that's all it is, is that they'll play on par with most expansion teams and eke out 15 to 18 wins.
That's nothing to throw a parade over, but it's not the worst team ever either.

Around the league


I was in New Jersey last night for the Heat-Nets' game. It's going to be a long season, Nets fans.
Richard Jefferson got his first taste of life without Jason Kidd on Wednesday, and it wasn't pretty.
With the rest of the Nets' active roster looking like an expansion squad, the Heat were all over Jefferson, holding him to 5-for-12 shooting from the field and causing four turnovers.
Any optimism that was left about the Nets going into the season seemed to fizzle away quickly. The crowd was booing by the end of the first quarter. The Kenyon Martin chants rained down in the fourth.
Even coach Lawrence Frank seemed to be admitting the Nets were in for a long season after the game. What went wrong, Lawrence?
"A combination of our inability to get stops and offensively not really having a great flow. A combination of turnovers and perimeter jump shots," Frank said after the game.
"We're very disappointed in our performance."
Get used to disappointment, Nets fans.
With no point guard to get the offense in the flow (though Zoran Planinic did look good when he played), no post players to draw a double team and no perimeter shooters to hit those jumpers, it isn't going to be pretty.
That's why Kidd isn't the only one that's asked out.
Sources claim that Alonzo Mourning has also asked to be traded or bought out of his contract so that he can play for a winner this season. Mourning believes he might only have one or two years left and doesn't want to squander them playing for a lottery team.
His preference is to be moved with Kidd, but that's easier said than done. Teams are already leery about Kidd's huge contract.


Mao's not the time to panic for T-Mac and Yao -- or is it?
Add in the uninsured three years, $15 million due Mourning and it might just scare off everyone.
"Obviously, I'm a veteran in this league and I've got a small window of opportunity to play this game," Mourning said. "So I want to be in the best possible situation that's going to help benefit me at the same time."

Speaking of making rash judgments in the first few days of the season … could the Rockets look any worse?
Tracy McGrady seems hesitant and completely out sync in Jeff Van Gundy's offense. Charlie Ward (who has twice as many turnovers as assists) and Tyronn Lue aren't going to cut it at the point.
Bob Sura won't be back until mid-December. Can the Rockets survive that long without help? One source claims they're already looking, but there isn't much out there.
Given the competitive nature of the West, the Rockets could be in trouble early if they can't find a way to get T-Mac and Yao some help.

The Sonics lost their opener to an undermanned Clippers squad by 30. The Nate McMillan Watch has officially begun.

The Wizards beat the Grizzlies, in Memphis, without Gilbert Arenas, Larry Hughes, Kwame Brown or Brendan Haywood. The Wizards went on a 58-22 run in a 19-minute span. During that span Antawn Jamison scored as many points (22) as the entire Grizzlies team.
It's surprising Hubie Brown didn't have to be helped off the court after the game. He had to blow about every blood vessel in his body.

The Nuggets suffered a huge blow on opening night when Voshon Lenard went out for the season. The team really only has Greg Buckner and Rodney White left to play the position.
They've talked to Troy Bell, who was released from the Grizzlies on Monday. Bell is "2" in a point guard's body. They could use him as a Bobby Jackson-type player, but with Earl Boykins already getting significant minutes in the backcourt, that gives a new definition to the term "smallball."
A better fit might be Suns "2" Casey Jacobsen. With Quentin Richardson and Joe Johnson getting the bulk of minutes in Phoenix at the two position, Jacobsen is now expendable. The team didn't pick up his fourth-year option, so there isn't much to lose by trading him.
Suns head coach Mike D'Antonio loves Nikoloz Tskitishvili. Maybe there's a trade between the two teams that makes sense from both sides.


You're not going to beat any team down by 30 in this league. ”

— Hawks F Antoine Walker, in the Nov. 4 Atlanta Journal Constitution, after a blowout season-opening loss to the Suns


A number of teams are in hot pursuit of recently released forward Bo Outlaw. At the top of the list? The Miami Heat, who are desperate for some help at the "4." While Udonis Haslem has looked pretty good, their other two backup power forwards, Malik Allen and Christian Laettner, have given them nothing.
Outlaw would be a perfect fit in Miami and, according to sources, he's being wooed by Shaquille O'Neal himself.

Here's a shocker. Isiah Thomas is interested in Eddie Robinson. Actually, the surprise is that they didn't try to get him before the Bulls bought out the last two years and $14 million of his contract. New York is where all bad contracts should be laid to rest.
Isiah's rebuilding efforts now seem to be directly tied to raiding Bulls' castoffs. Jamal Crawford and Jerome Williams landed in New York this summer. Now Robinson, too? Why not, they led to Bulls to so many victories; it's worth a shot, right?

Our quote of the day comes from Antoine Walker after the Hawks' blowout loss to the Suns on Wednesday night: "You're not going to beat any team down by 30 in this league." Thanks for the knowledge, 'Toine.
 

elindholm

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They want to go into next summer with the top pick in the draft and a boat load of cap room.

I hope that isn't really their strategy. The Bobcats will have the #4 pick in next summer's draft.
 

panfolk

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A number of teams are in hot pursuit of recently released forward Bo Outlaw. At the top of the list? The Miami Heat, who are desperate for some help at the "4." While Udonis Haslem has looked pretty good, their other two backup power forwards, Malik Allen and Christian Laettner, have given them nothing.
Outlaw would be a perfect fit in Miami and, according to sources, he's being wooed by Shaquille O'Neal himself.


Well it looks like Florida is calling for Bo. Best of luck to him. Still wish he were a Sun.
 
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