Szczerbiak

[cly2tw]

I am not against the idea of bringing in Pierce actually. I just don't want to do it at the expense of Marion.

I tried to come up with some trades involving enough salary to make a sign and trade work, I just couldn't do it unfortunately.

Combining Joe and Marion would make things possible for a two team deal however I would be very reluctant to do it without getting an undeniable superstar back - ala Garnett.

I guess Boston could be a team to make me change my mind though. They have so much young talent that it would be interesting what else they would offer.

Consider what we'd get for JJ from Hawks, and that Pierce is worth Marion + a pick, it'd come down to whether Davis is worth Diaw and a protected pick. I'd say yes.

Actually, JJ would make a lot of sense to Boston as they have those athletic tweeners in Banks, Allen and West. A JJ-Allen or JJ-Banks backcourt is what a JJ-Barbosa would promise for us, only better as both of them are stronger than Barbs. And when Marion's contract ends in 4 years, it's when Green's rookie one ends. If Jefferson and Green develop as hoped, they'd have a really balanced team down the road, while staying competitive all along.

At very worst, they could trade Marion to Knicks for TT and Ariza + picks.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I think that Boston would have legitimate interest in JJ as well. He could fit real nice, and grow with the rest of the young talent.

The problem I have with a Ricky/Pierce combination is you are putting two guys that will want the ball a lot in the starting lineup. I could understand 1 gunner in Pierce, but I don't think the both of them would work well chemestry wise.


For other ideas:

If the Suns were ship out Marion and Joe together, they could accept back salaries anywhere in the range of

$14,868,125 to $25,046,875 (when looking at ideas be sure to check from the other way though)

A combination of Pierce/Banks/Allen/Blount would work. Boston won't want to get rid of Allen, but we are taking back the albatross in Blount to entice them. I still don't like it for the Suns, but I think it is better than the deal with Ricky.

 

[cly2tw]

Ricky can come off the bench though. He started only half of the games for Boston last season. He is very athletic.

In general, I don't buy the chemistry concern in trading for those guys, not after the rifts JJ had with Amare are revealed now anyway. With Nash on board, as long as the new-comers respect Amare's franchise player status, which is not hard after his performance in the Spurs series, I think everybody athletic and mature enough would fit in here well. I think Davis has been behaving hismself very well in the last two years.

And don't forget that Spurs have 3 goto scorers in Tim, Manu and Parker too. So, it's definitely good if we have 3 too. BTW, both Pierce and Ricky are better 3-pt shooters than Marion and Q, and both of them shot quite some of those under pressure.

 

[PhxGametime]

Please, no Wally or Paul Pierce...


I'd rather keep JJ than those 2, I won't even get into to it about Ricky Davis

 

[George O'Brien]

Trading for guys with big contracts negates the primary reason the Suns accepted the Hawks deal - cap flexibility. If you are going to tie the team up in big contracts then keep JJ.

There are reasons why JJ is such a good fit for the Suns and guys like Wally and Pierce arent:

When compared to Wally:

JJ is a better defender
JJ is a better ball handler
JJ is a better rebounder
JJ is better at making his own shot.

When compared to Pierce

JJ is a better catch and shoot guy
JJ is a better backup point guard
JJ does not have to have the ball to be effective

The big attraction with Finley is that he can do the catch and shoot without costing a zillion bucks. The only reason to keep JJ over Finley is that JJ does more, which is the same reason with the other two.

 

[cly2tw]

When compared to Pierce

JJ is a better catch and shoot guy
JJ is a better backup point guard
JJ does not have to have the ball to be effective

The big attraction with Finley is that he can do the catch and shoot without costing a zillion bucks. The only reason to keep JJ over Finley is that JJ does more, which is the same reason with the other two.

No. Yes. Not really.

See, Pierce now is the first option and a major ballhandler with Celtics. That also means he doesn't have as many opportunity to do the catch and shoot or to show how effective he plays off the ball. My recollection of the early Pierce under rookie contract is that he was indeed good at both.

One thing however make Pierce the ideal choice as the 3rd piece to Amare-Nash is his go-to scorer quality, at which he is only a tad below the first-tier guys like tmac and kobe but better than Allen, Manu and at least 2-3 levels better than JJ and Finley. For winning a title, this quality is essential.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Last season:

Paul Pierce's overall catch and shoot (82% of shots were when guarded) was 38.89%, 1.04 PPP and 70th percentile.

Joe Johnson's overall catch and shoot (58% of shots were when open) was 47.96%, 1.41 PPP and 100th percentile.

Wally Szczerbiak's overall catch and shoot (60% of shots were when guarded) was 45.96%, 1.09 PPP and 79th percentile.



To make it easier to compare, here are the catch and shoot numbers when open:

JJ - 49.73%, 1.46 PPP, 91st percentile
PP - 52.08%, 1.44 PPP, 89th percentile
wally - 44.25%, 1.07PPP, 42nd percentile


When Guarded:

JJ - 45.52%, 1.33 PPP, 100th percentile
PP- 36.04%, 0.96 PPP, 65th percentile
wally - 47.09%, 1.1 PPP, 88th percentile

 

[cly2tw]

Last season:

Paul Pierce's overall catch and shoot (82% of shots were when guarded) was 38.89%, 1.04 PPP and 70th percentile.

Joe Johnson's overall catch and shoot (58% of shots were when open) was 47.96%, 1.41 PPP and 100th percentile.

Wally Szczerbiak's overall catch and shoot (60% of shots were when guarded) was 45.96%, 1.09 PPP and 79th percentile.



To make it easier to compare, here are the catch and shoot numbers when open:

JJ - 49.73%, 1.46 PPP, 91st percentile
PP - 52.08%, 1.44 PPP, 89th percentile
wally - 44.25%, 1.07PPP, 42nd percentile


When Guarded:

JJ - 45.52%, 1.33 PPP, 100th percentile
PP- 36.04%, 0.96 PPP, 65th percentile
wally - 47.09%, 1.1 PPP, 88th percentile

Thanks for the stats. Where do you get them?

So if left open, PP is 52.08%, better than JJ, but JJ is more efficient due to his high number of 3-pt shooting. As I suspected, even just for catch and shoot, PP is guarded a lot more (82%!) than JJ (42%). And I bet the "guarding" PP faced was also a lot tougher than JJ did, since nobody on Celtics were drawing much offensive attention like Amare and Nash did here. (I'd guess as guarded counts those rushing back with extended arms from collapsing the defense on Amare and Nash, as long as the extending arms were within vicinity of the shooting players.)

So, as a pure shooter, we really can't say JJ be much superior than PP, IMHO.

PS: As a first option, PP had to shoot even guarded closely, while JJ had the luxary to pass up the shot in similar situation.

 

[elindholm]

I like how Szczerbiak shoots better with a hand in his face. I always thought that was a myth.

 

[cly2tw]

I like how Szczerbiak shoots better with a hand in his face. I always thought that was a myth.

Thus, he would suffer in suns offense as he'd get too many wide open shots.

 

[JCSunsfan]

So, what are Raja Bell's stats like. Just curious.

 

[elindholm]

www.nba.com/playerfile/raja_bell

 

[George O'Brien]

I'd be curious about the open shot percentages of Bell and Q. My impression was that Q missed an awful lot of open shots and was just awful when defensed.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I'll be generous tonight.

Q's catch and shoot was just above 39% when open, and above 38% when guarded. Just over 28% when shooting off the dribble.

Bell's catch and shoot when open was over 54% and just over 41% when guarded. One thing to note is that he was open only 27% of the time. Bell shot just over 37% off the dribble

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

(I'd guess as guarded counts those rushing back with extended arms from collapsing the defense on Amare and Nash, as long as the extending arms were within vicinity of the shooting players.)
.

The general rule is a player is considered guarded if they feel any sort of pressure from the defense. So if a guy is charging at them, it will often be tagged as open since there is really no pressure and it is more for show. It is pretty subjective, but if the logger feels the player is feeling pressure it is marked as guarded.

 

[George O'Brien]

I'll be generous tonight.

Q's catch and shoot was just above 39% when open, and above 38% when guarded. Just over 28% when shooting off the dribble.

Bell's catch and shoot when open was over 54% and just over 41% when guarded. One thing to note is that he was open only 27% of the time. Bell shot just over 37% off the dribble

I'm sure that JJ was light years ahead of both when it came to shooting off the dribble.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I'm sure that JJ was light years ahead of both when it came to shooting off the dribble.

Just over 40%

 

[cly2tw]

The general rule is a player is considered guarded if they feel any sort of pressure from the defense. So if a guy is charging at them, it will often be tagged as open since there is really no pressure and it is more for show. It is pretty subjective, but if the logger feels the player is feeling pressure it is marked as guarded.

Thanks for the information.

As a good player can guage/anticipate how much threat the defender creates, he can pass up on the shot if he so chooses. So, I guess JJ primarily shot "open" catch-n-shoot when he felt comfortably away from the defender's threat enough. He should be praised for making this wise decision within the system. Yet the fact that with those seclective shooting he still finished with 17pts per game speaks for the system around Amare and Nash. It's my contention that good players like PP and Ricky should be able to fit in and do at least better than Q at shooting jumpers.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Yet the fact that with those seclective shooting he still finished with 17pts per game speaks for the system around Amare and Nash. It's my contention that good players like PP and Ricky should be able to fit in and do at least better than Q at shooting jumpers.

I agree with that ascertion. It is also why I think that Raja Bell will average about 45% from 3 this season. The fact that John Hollinger doesn't believe he will hit 40% again speaks volumes about how stats can be misinterpreted.

I also think that PP and Ricky would shoot well in our system, but only if they would buy into it. That is where my reservations lie.

 

[elindholm]

How is it logged if the player catches the ball, a defender rushes at him, the player takes a dribble step to the side, lets the defender go by, and then shoots an open shot? For some players, that takes them way out of their rhythm and probably qualifies as a "contested" shot, even though there's no defender around by the time the ball is released.

 

[cly2tw]

I thought that Bell was also quite good at shot selection. But their team/system was not like ours to allow so many "open" shots. So, he was often forced to shoot even under "pressure" for shot-clock or other reasons like nobody to pass to. Bell should be as efficient at shooting as JJ, I'm quite confident about that.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

How is it logged if the player catches the ball, a defender rushes at him, the player takes a dribble step to the side, lets the defender go by, and then shoots an open shot? For some players, that takes them way out of their rhythm and probably qualifies as a "contested" shot, even though there's no defender around by the time the ball is released.

It actually becomes a shot off the dribble. Like you said it can take them out of their rhythm so we cannot log it as a catch and shoot. Shots off the dribble don't have an open or guarded tag associated with them.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I thought that Bell was also quite good at shot selection. But their team/system was not like ours to allow so many "open" shots. So, he was often forced to shoot even under "pressure" for shot-clock or other reasons like nobody to pass to. Bell should be as efficient at shooting as JJ, I'm quite confident about that.

Agree. Bell also had to be a primary offensive force last season with all of the injuries IIRC.

 

[cly2tw]

I also think that PP and Ricky would shoot well in our system, but only if they would buy into it. That is where my reservations lie.

People say winning heals everything.
Yet, the recent revelation about JJ's feeling just proved that it's not always the case.
The hope is that PP and Ricky, much older than JJ, are more mature and more thirsty for a title in that regard.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Right. At this point I would be willing to bet Pierce would come in and play whatever role we wanted. I am not so sure with Ricky.