Tanking

[chickenhead]

For some perspective on tanking for Wiggins, here's the breakdown on which records have ended up with the #1 pick on the draft lottery:

Worst record 4 times (including 1 tie)
2nd worst record 4 times
3rd worst record 7 times (including 1 tie)
4th worst record 1 time
5th worst record 5 times
6th worst record 3 times
7th worst record 2 times
8th worst record 1 time
9th worst record 1 time
11th worst record 1 time

Cleveland was tied for the worst record when they drafted Lebron. Orlando had the worst record when they drafted Howard, and the second worst when they drafted Shaq. San Antonio had the fourth worst record when they drafted Robinson and the 3rd worst record in their alleged tank for Duncan. The Knicks famously had the third worst when they drafted Ewing. Houston had the 5th worst when they drafted Yao.

I don't know if tanking is bad karma or not, as discussed in the Milsap thread, but it's clear that while being the worst team presents the best odds for the #1 pick in a given year, it does not do so historically. So the blanket criticism of any move that improves the team slightly in the short term with great potential for the long term may be a bit short-sighted. The worst eventuality is clearly having the worst record, no assets, and landing the third or fourth pick anyway.

 

[slinslin]

there are more top players in next years draft besides wiggins

having the worst record means the worst you could draft is #4.

Also 25% to win the lottery is 25%, regardless of historic data.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I don't mind the idea of rebuilding and focusing on younger players to develop. If that is your definition of tanking fine. But if tanking is treating the whole season as a preseason and not trying to win games, I have a big problem with it.

If, by the all-star break, it is clear the season is lost, fine. But starting the season in tank mode is unethical.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I don't mind the idea of rebuilding and focusing on younger players to develop. If that is your definition of tanking fine. But if tanking is treating the whole season as a preseason and not trying to win games, I have a big problem with it.

If, by the all-star break, it is clear the season is lost, fine. But starting the season in tank mode is unethical.

I'm not even comfortable with truly tanking at the all star point. But I have no problem trading away our veterans at every opportunity and I have no problem living and dying (mostly dying) with the young guys, even from day one. There's a fine line they have to walk. They can't afford to let the players give anything less than their best and the coach can't do anything that makes the players feel like he's doing less than his best. IOW, you can't play someone, even if they are part of the youth movement, if they aren't giving full effort and playing the way the Coach wants them to play (Beasley, for example).

Steve

 

[KloD]

I guess I'm somewhere in the middle in regards to tanking. If a team sits their best players in an attempt to lose, that's unethical as you are robbing the fans that paid to see them play. However, if a team assembles a roster that they feel will lose even with 100% effort, I've no problem with that. The system is set up to encourage losing for teams that have no chance at the playoffs. Often it's the only (save for a trade for a superstar) route to get better by landing a franchise player in the draft. It's rare today to see a top free agent sign with a team that doesn't already have an established base of talent. They all want to team up with other stars. I'd like to see the lottery changed to give all non-playoff teams an equal shot at the top 3 picks. That potentially could end the tanking strategy.

 

[Mainstreet]

Play your young players at every opportunity, have them play hard and the record takes care of itself. At least the Suns will know who to keep after the coming season is over.

If possible, trade Gortat and Scola for assets. The Suns need a young team developing together with perhaps a few vet minimums for stability.

 

[NashDishesDimes]

Lets TANK.

 

[Suns in rebuild mode]

Well if we just moved most of the vets minus Dragic then there will be no need to tank.

And next years draft is not a end all for Wiggins who yes is an "incredible talent" and the best "athlete" sense LBJ to come out. Andrew Wiggins would likely compare to a more athletic Harrison Barns type maybe a better shooter.

You have Wiggins,Smart,Randle,Gordon,Parker and the Harrison kid and maybe some other guys all coming out next year.

To me its more about getting a top 3 pick and at worst a top 5 pick. If you have the worst record you are guaranteed no worse than the 4th pick. The number 1 pick would just be a constellation prize in my opinion.

For anybody who doesn't fully understand how the lottery works or why its called the lottery.

The draft is fairly simple to understand the "Lottery" as they call it is for only the top 3 picks and after that the order is set from 4-14 by record starting at 4 going to the team remaining with the worst record and the process is completed the same way all the way to 14. So if you have the worst record in the NBA you can see why you get no worse than the 4th pick.

Which could be Andrew Wiggins,Julius Randle,Jabari Parker or Marcus Smart or whoever you see as the best guy at 4.

So if you know you can get one of those guys is it worth tanking?

Me I'd usually say no don't tank but at least 3 of those guys could be Franchise changer in Wiggins Parker and Randle so this year yes I'd say "strategically Lose" meaning dump the Vets instead of having to bench them late in the year besides I'd rather see kendall Marshall,Archie Goodwin,Alex Len,Markiff and Marcus and Eric Bledsoe than Scola,Gortat,Frye,Butler,Brown,Beastly we already know what those guys can do so lets let the young guys play and hopefully develop some in the process.

 

[Phrazbit]

Well if we just moved most of the vets minus Dragic then there will be no need to tank.

Wouldnt that on its own constitute tanking...

 

[Dalbrin]

Nothing unethical about tanking. Teams don't win without a superstar, and who in their right mind wants to watch a mediocre team finish 6-8 year after year and get bounced in the 1st round, conference semis if they're lucky?

When was the last time a team won a championship without a consensus first ballot HoF'er on their roster? Detroit? I don't want to watch mediocre basketball, have everyone say that a forty win season is great because they improved over last year but just missed the playoffs, and then after that sit in the 6-8 and try to improve the team with 15-20 draft picks. No thanks.

Do what you need to do to be the best. Even if that means being the worst for today. Nothing unethical about that. Anyone who buys a ticket to a Suns game this year expecting talented winning basketball is fooling themselves anyway.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

So basically our goal as far as record is concerned this year shouldn't necessarily be to go all out for the worst record, but one of the 3 worst records. That should be quite manageable by just simply giving the young guys a lot of minutes.

 

[mojorizen7]

I have no problem with tanking it. Nothing else has worked in the last 44 years.
This team DESPERATELY needs a young,cornerstone stud talent.

No shame in trying.

 

[Chaplin]

People aren't thinking of this as a business, which is surprising, because I thought we've all come to grips with the fact that Sarver runs the team like a business.

You don't intentionally make terrible products for your current consumers for a 25% chance to hit a slam dunk in a year.

There's a difference between tanking and being unconcerned with your record. We don't have the talent to win a lot of games. That's not tanking, that's common sense. We don't NEED to intentionally lose games--that is a recipe for disaster, and definitely unethical towards your current ticket holders. We tank intentionally and the team will lose so much money that it will take YEARS of good draft picks to recover.

 

[slinslin]

of course you do if you want to be succesful long term, taking a hit one year is better than slowly fading away completely.

Obviously Sarver has realized this in the last year as Babby's tune has changed significantly.

btw

1. Wiggins
2. Exum
3. Parker

 

[Dalbrin]

If you bought tickets to Suns games this season, you're going to get exactly what you deserve.

Please. Like tanking a year or two is going to destroy the fanbase forever. Just like always, just like with every team in the Valley, if the team starts looking like a contender, people will show up. There aren't many fanbases as fair weather as Arizona's.

Next year is going to have horrible attendance no matter what. Better to accept that for a year and gain the pieces to have an actual winner then to have a mediocre team forever that only the most hardcore fans follow or buy tickets to watch.

If Sarver really wants to think business, he should be thinking tank.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Just play Brown and Beasley for 35 to 40 minutes a night. With Dragic, Lenn, and the other 1st rounder.

Everything else will take care of itself.

Sent from my RAZR Maxx HD using Tapatalk II

 

[Errntknght]

Its not tanking to get rid of Gortat and Scola. They are not going to be part of the team when it does turn around anyway. Cripes, Gortat doesn't have the stamina for an 82 game regular season so he'll be useless when it comes to the important games... when we get good enough to qualify for them again. And we don't owe it to him to showcase the talents he does have to inflate his next contract. It'd be nice to get something for him but shedding him before the season gets under way is enough of a gain to satisfy me.

Scola isn't likely to swing many games our way but he is clutter - better to play Oriahki in his place and find out what we have in him. We also have Markeiff, and we don't even know if he's worthwhile as a backup - there is still hope though.

As far as keeping the fans happy I think Bledsoe, Len and Goodwin will be far more entertaining than either of them.

 

[Gaddabout]

For the record, I'm OK with trading vets for basketball reasons: They don't fit, cost way too much for what they offer, chance to acquire younger, developing players, etc. etc. I never understood the acquisition of Scola -- even though I liked him as a player -- and Gortat is more of a commodity than a player now. You won't hear me complain about trading either of those players. I also can appreciate the art of trading for things like expiring contracts and the like. If the Suns are about playing the young guys, I get that.

What will draw my ire is if the Suns still have Gortat in February and we suddenly begin seeing mysterious DNPs. That's immoral and even unAmerican (although, oddly, it does accurately capture common American behavior).

 

[Dalbrin]

ROFL. Immoral and unamerican.

 

[AfroSuns]

Hey, if they are able to tank while playing the young guys and they are putting forth 100%, i am all for it.

I am not sure why any player in his right sense would give less than his best. Ruining his own market value while assisting an organization that is not guaranteed to keep him bring in his possible replacement.
The Suns have got to be one of the youngest team in the league, not sure how they wont play their best young prospects as much as possible for skills development, experience, moral boosting......

The current best player in the league was not drafted by the team he has now won 2 championships for.....

There are other ways to be relevant again. There is no easy route. but not developing our young guys should not be part of the strategy.

 

[Gaddabout]

ROFL. Immoral and unamerican.

If being grossly uncompetitive while charging ticket premiums is what it takes to win in the NBA, I'm happy to bow out and you can keep it. Seriously. I won't participate. That is not good for my soul.

 

[Mainstreet]

Hey, if they are able to tank while playing the young guys and they are putting forth 100%, i am all for it.

This is not tanking. It's called rebuilding. And it can be very exciting watching young players develop.

 

[sunsfan88]

The Cavs tanked after they lost LeBron. They got Kyrie Irving, Waiters, Thompson and Bennett....a solid young core who will be good once they all hit their potential.

The Magic tanked after they lost Dwight...they got Vucevic, Harkless, Oladipo and Harris all either through trade or draft....a solid young core who will be good once they all hit their potential.

The Jazz tanked after they lost Deron....they got Favors, Burke, Kanter, Burks, Hayward....a solid young core who will be good once they all hit their potential.

OKC tanked...well everyone knows this story so I won't repeat it.

Suns need to be really bad this coming season and the season after that before becoming a contender again.

 

[Gaddabout]

The Cavs tanked after they lost LeBron. They got Kyrie Irving, Waiters, Thompson and Bennett....a solid young core who will be good once they all hit their potential.

The Magic tanked after they lost Dwight...they got Vucevic, Harkless, Oladipo and Harris all either through trade or draft....a solid young core who will be good once they all hit their potential.

The Jazz tanked after they lost Deron....they got Favors, Burke, Kanter, Burks, Hayward....a solid young core who will be good once they all hit their potential.

OKC tanked...well everyone knows this story so I won't repeat it.

Suns need to be really bad this coming season and the season after that before becoming a contender again.

There's committing to youth, which all of the above teams did, that is a time-honored NBA tradition. It happens more often now in small markets because it's far too risky to sign free agents under the current or previous CBA.

That's not tanking. That's committing to the draft. They had to go that route because they are in small markets with varying degrees of financial limitations.

Tanking is holding out veteran players for no obvious reason, inventing mysterious injuries, letting Mark Madsen inexplicably shoot six 3-pointers in OT in a season in which had previously never taken a 3, while you sit a healthy Kevin Garnett. Tanking is holding out a totally healed David Robinson much longer than necessary so you can draft Tim Duncan. Tanking is trading every last veteran on the Cavaliers for no good on-court or financial reason so you can draft LeBron James.

Be careful what you wish for.

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/04/02/why-tanking-doesnt-work-in-the-nba/

After four years — the amount of time on rookie scale contracts — about 31% of the teams with top three picks hadn’t made the playoffs even once. Almost 26% of these teams’ best showing was only the first round. And a further 22% of teams topped out in the second round. Only 17% of teams have managed to do better than the second round, with only two teams managing to win an NBA championship within four years of drafting their top three pick. Who were these two teams? In 1999, San Antonio won a championship in Tim Duncan‘s second season. And in 2004, the Detroit Pistons won a championship in Darko Milicic‘s rookie season. But Milicic only played in 159 regular season minutes that year. So we are being generous when we say that two teams have managed to win a championship within four years of landing a lottery pick.

 

[Gaddabout]

So basically, shoot for mediocrity, miss the playoffs, get lucky and get a really high pick, THEN make the magic choice that will take you to the next level.

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/03/26/why-teams-should-try-and-get-on-the-treadmill-of-mediocrity/

I'm not inherently drawn to this argument, but this is what I think people imagine when they think of tanking, but the Suns are clearly not in this position.