Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Renz asked about the 2005 draft. I did grade it too high, yet my comments on the individual players has quite a bit of merit, I think. Of course we won't know about Rolle until we see how he does at safety, but I predicted he would end up there. Mike can verify this is the correct article, titled "A Winning Hand?" if anyone has any doubts. The material at the end was from my grading article. I will grant I totally missed the boat on Blackstock.
If nothing else, Dennis Green is predictable. He let everyone know what he wanted and still got it in the draft. However, he should keep in mind that old saying about being careful what you ask for.***
The day started with Antrel Rolle falling into the Cards' hands. This was facilitated by the Titans going for flash over substance and taking PacMan Jones. It's not that he's a bad player and he can make a difference with returns, but Rolle is the type of defensive leader around whom you can build a secondary. I won't waste space on all the statistics you can find elsewhere. Here's the essence. He is fast, but not super fast, though some had him at 4.40 on Pro Day. He has a nice burst to the ball, but his agility and toughness are his big assets. He can contort his body and adjust to a ball better than anyone I have seen this year. Add that to his 38" vertical and he is a monster around the ball. He has receiver-like hands and will make interceptions. He can get the ball back when the Cards need it. Once he has his hands on the ball he will always be a threat to take it all the way. His toughness will show when pressing receivers at the line and forcing them out of their patterns. Rolle is excellent at blitzing. In run support, he hits like a safety. In fact, as his body matures and he adds muscle, he may well become a safety. There are no character issues with this guy. He studies film. He works very hard and is a team leader type. Rolle demands other match his work ethic. He is a tremendous draft choice. He is the best athlete the Cards have drafted since Wilson and he has far more football instinct than him. He will be a star. If he has a weakness it's that he sometimes tries to hard to make a big play and gets take in by play action or a pump fake. He does have a temper and was suspended a game for fighting with former Virginia Tech star DeAngelo Hall. He was also charged with resisting arrest during an altercation over his car. He was not convicted, but it probably helped that his dad was the Police Chief in Homestead, Florida, which is just south of Miami. He seems to have his anger well controlled these days and appreciates what is at stake. He was the best player on the board and a perfect need pick. You could make a sound argument that he was the best athlete in the draft. Rolle is also a solid punt returner, but since he is certain to start, the Cards will likely take a specialist. I found interesting that he held Fitzgerald to 3 catches for 26 yards when they last played. The nice part about having Rolle is that he will make Fitzgerald and Boldin better receivers by playing against them in practice. A few scouts think Rolle's overrated , but I am hoping for a 6 year deal, because this guy is an extraordinary player. Look at recent Miami secondary defenders take early and you'll see why I am so pleased.**
Green and I parted company on this pick. I would have taken the tight end, Smith. I should immediately state I am in the minority on this guy. Most of my colleagues think he will be a solid back. Since all that will be published everywhere, here's why I have reservations. Obviously he is short; a touch under 5'9". So, he will be hard to find in a crowd, like down the middle. He also body catches way too much. However, that's not my biggest concern. It has to do with the difference between the NFL and college. Before this draft I took a long look at why I think Thomas Jones failed. I don't feel badly about that mistake. The Cards, the Bucs and the Bears all overvalued him as well. By the way, while the dancing behind the line was labeled as the problem, he corrected that and still failed. In college he looked like the perfect back; fast (though not like Arrington), elusive and reasonably powerful. In the NFL the holes are smaller, the players bigger and also faster. In college many times Jones would not even be touched until he was loose in the secondary. In the NFL, that rarely happened. Jones was simply to easy to knock off balance with a glancing blow. I have the same concerns about Arrington. I don't think he will be effective between the tackles except on play action, which will quickly become predictable. He played in a offense that spread the defense, and he won't have that luxury with this Cardinal team. Like Jones, he actually does like to dance looking for a hole and so it's hard to judge how quickly he can hit holes in the NFL and that is my number one criteria for a star back. This is again complicated by the California offense. He typically was aligned very deep so he could see holes develop, in the NFL he will play much closer to the line. It's like a QB who's never played under center. He may be a decent outside runner, but the corner is harder to get in the NFL. Please keep in mind, that I don't see him as a total bust. I think he is a situational running back and I like Sproles much better in that role. My point is you don't take a situational running back with the 44th pick. It also worries me that he wasn't an impact player until his senior year. He had only a decent JC career. I prefer a back who has shown year-to-year performance. People mention Sanders doing the same thing, but he played behind Thurman Thomas. As a junior, Arrington couldn't unseat Adimchinobe Echemandu, who by the way put up good enough numbers in this offense to be All-Pac 10. Arrington also has some tendency to put the ball on the ground and this is often intensified by the bigger hitters in the NFL. My last concern is that the tall, athletic defensive ends you see in the NFL will go right over him to the quarterback. He was a willing, but often ineffective blocker when asked to do so in college. This guy does not play nearly as strong as he looks in workouts. On the character side, this is a fine young man, who like Rolle, is a very hard worker. I just think the Cards had better choices. By the way, I'd love to be proved wrong on this assessment.
There was no better choice (unless you count Blackstock) at his point of the draft than Eric Green. He's a Florida guy who starred as a QB and DB in high school. He is super fast and has a nice burst to the ball on top of that. He has decent height (5'11") and a 38"vertical. This guy will make a great nickel back, as he is very smart and reads plays well. He can play complex defenses and is always in position. In addition to his quickness, he possesses great quickness and agility. He is very fluid out of his break and stays with double moves as well as any corner coming out this year. His weaknesses are all correctable. He needs to add strength and play more physically. He relies too much on his athleticism. This will also help him shed blocks better, which is a big issue in run support. He has a few technique flaws, such as staying too upright when switching off his backpedal. His tackling technique needs improvement, especially in run support. He gets too low, too early and is easily stiff-armed away. He makes interceptions, but he would make many more if he didn't body catch the ball. He needs to trust his hands. I love guys who have a big coaching upside. If he improves his tackling he could be a big factor on special teams as his athleticism made him an excellent kick blocker ( like many at VT), who excels coming off the edge. He played his career against the top passing teams in the nation and held up well. He won't be intimidated by the NFL. Another great potential leader, he won the President's Award for Leadership. Early in his career he was not much of a team player, but Frank Beamer sat him down and straightened him out. Since then he has been one of the best at his position in the college ranks. He has outstanding character and no issues. If you want to dream, imagine this guy and Macklin as the corners with Wilson and Rolle as the safeties. Now that is a scary secondary. It won't happen this year, but it might be the future alignment.*
*
Unless your counting the dollars Aaron Rodgers lost, Blackstock suffered the biggest drop of the draft. Green is hoping for a Dockett-like result with this choice and he might just get it. Many of us had this guy in the first round. In the chat room we were all wondering if some big secret had caused him to drop. If there is a secret, it's being well kept. I think he fell because of the "too much information" phenomena and the fact that people forget these players are still nearly kids. Lets take the too much info issue first. Many scouts have locked into the fact that this guy played in 3-4 and have pigeon-holed him in that roll. He did come up and play on the line frequently when Canty was injured, so he lost reps at linebacker than too. Yes, he needs to develop more cover skills as a result, but forget all that: he can play. He ran a 4.5-4.6 on Pro Day and that's fast for a linebacker. He has more moves than most defensive ends and surprisingly polished technique. He admittedly has problems. He is least effective against the run when he plays on the line. He doesn't use his hands well and often gets tied up. Mankins, the surprise Pat's choice, was effective handling Blackstock by mauling him. Still, Blackstock broke LT's record for career sacks by a linebacker and that pretty much says it all. He is an explosive blitzer with a more explosive first step than Johnson in my opinion. Blackstock has an outstanding burst to the QB when he gets close and he is very hard for a back to block. In college he could typically only be stopped by double-teams and with the Cards' defensive ends, he won't see much of that. Between his 39" vertical and his 6'3" frame, he is hard to throw over. He has quick hands and frequently knocks down passes. He is unusually alert for the ball and often recovers fumbles. In pass coverage he does have somewhat stiff hips, but his speed mostly compensates. His tendency to bite on play action will have to be corrected. He sometimes seems to have Simeon Rice syndrome and get too focused on getting to the QB, though you seldom see him run by the ball carrier as Rice often did. Blackstock is more than willing to mix it up when it comes to tackling. He needs to improve his leg strength so he can shed blockers more easily. He does so well in space, but not in a crowd. You'll enjoy him running down people from behind. He has that extra gear that allows him to play all over the field and he is especially effective in pursuit behind the line. If they can keep his head in the game, he is perfect for Pendergast's defense. Another key too much info issue is that he attended military school. Everyone assumes he was a major discipline problem, but that's not the case. He had problems with school and simply didn't like it. He would never have gotten into college without that kind of hard discipline. He is not a rocket scientist and lacks maturity, but he readily accepted the need for a more disciplined approach to the classroom. Still, he will never graduate college and he already has a child. This leads us to the real issue. This guy is still a kid. He is more immature than many coming out of college at this stage. People were likely afraid that if they gave him the big money, trouble would follow. Even third round money may be an issue. In college he was so happy to get there that he probably had his best year his first year. He was perhaps the top first year OLB that season. He regressed and then turned it on again to hopefully move to the NFL. Those are again indicators of immaturity. His favorite player, not surprisingly, is Randy Moss. Here' where I see this going. Blackstock says he be fine playing with a tough coach and that's what the Cards should show him, not coddle him like they did with Moss. Blackstock may well be the starter this year if he can stay disciplined and show his complete game. At the least, he will be a force in long passing situations. If he matures, he's a steal. If not he's an awesome role player who will leave for bigger money when he nears free agency. He was an excellent choice who can immediately contribute.*
So the Cards got one certain every down player in Rolle. Arrington and Blackstock could also be starters as well. Green will be the nickel and could fill in with reasonable first year effectiveness should a starter go down. He certainly has the ability to start one day. It's not last's year's group, but it should already be enough for the Cards to be playoff bound.
Arizona - A - Yes, I believe objectively they did the best; another astonishing haul of immediate impact players.
* Best Selection - Rolle is a future Pro Bowl player who should have been the first defensive player selected in this draft.
* Value Choice - Blackstock adds to an already potent pass rush. He's not a complete player yet, but he has the tools to be one.
* Worst Pick - McCoy is not the real McCoy and deserved to be left undrafted.
If nothing else, Dennis Green is predictable. He let everyone know what he wanted and still got it in the draft. However, he should keep in mind that old saying about being careful what you ask for.***
The day started with Antrel Rolle falling into the Cards' hands. This was facilitated by the Titans going for flash over substance and taking PacMan Jones. It's not that he's a bad player and he can make a difference with returns, but Rolle is the type of defensive leader around whom you can build a secondary. I won't waste space on all the statistics you can find elsewhere. Here's the essence. He is fast, but not super fast, though some had him at 4.40 on Pro Day. He has a nice burst to the ball, but his agility and toughness are his big assets. He can contort his body and adjust to a ball better than anyone I have seen this year. Add that to his 38" vertical and he is a monster around the ball. He has receiver-like hands and will make interceptions. He can get the ball back when the Cards need it. Once he has his hands on the ball he will always be a threat to take it all the way. His toughness will show when pressing receivers at the line and forcing them out of their patterns. Rolle is excellent at blitzing. In run support, he hits like a safety. In fact, as his body matures and he adds muscle, he may well become a safety. There are no character issues with this guy. He studies film. He works very hard and is a team leader type. Rolle demands other match his work ethic. He is a tremendous draft choice. He is the best athlete the Cards have drafted since Wilson and he has far more football instinct than him. He will be a star. If he has a weakness it's that he sometimes tries to hard to make a big play and gets take in by play action or a pump fake. He does have a temper and was suspended a game for fighting with former Virginia Tech star DeAngelo Hall. He was also charged with resisting arrest during an altercation over his car. He was not convicted, but it probably helped that his dad was the Police Chief in Homestead, Florida, which is just south of Miami. He seems to have his anger well controlled these days and appreciates what is at stake. He was the best player on the board and a perfect need pick. You could make a sound argument that he was the best athlete in the draft. Rolle is also a solid punt returner, but since he is certain to start, the Cards will likely take a specialist. I found interesting that he held Fitzgerald to 3 catches for 26 yards when they last played. The nice part about having Rolle is that he will make Fitzgerald and Boldin better receivers by playing against them in practice. A few scouts think Rolle's overrated , but I am hoping for a 6 year deal, because this guy is an extraordinary player. Look at recent Miami secondary defenders take early and you'll see why I am so pleased.**
Green and I parted company on this pick. I would have taken the tight end, Smith. I should immediately state I am in the minority on this guy. Most of my colleagues think he will be a solid back. Since all that will be published everywhere, here's why I have reservations. Obviously he is short; a touch under 5'9". So, he will be hard to find in a crowd, like down the middle. He also body catches way too much. However, that's not my biggest concern. It has to do with the difference between the NFL and college. Before this draft I took a long look at why I think Thomas Jones failed. I don't feel badly about that mistake. The Cards, the Bucs and the Bears all overvalued him as well. By the way, while the dancing behind the line was labeled as the problem, he corrected that and still failed. In college he looked like the perfect back; fast (though not like Arrington), elusive and reasonably powerful. In the NFL the holes are smaller, the players bigger and also faster. In college many times Jones would not even be touched until he was loose in the secondary. In the NFL, that rarely happened. Jones was simply to easy to knock off balance with a glancing blow. I have the same concerns about Arrington. I don't think he will be effective between the tackles except on play action, which will quickly become predictable. He played in a offense that spread the defense, and he won't have that luxury with this Cardinal team. Like Jones, he actually does like to dance looking for a hole and so it's hard to judge how quickly he can hit holes in the NFL and that is my number one criteria for a star back. This is again complicated by the California offense. He typically was aligned very deep so he could see holes develop, in the NFL he will play much closer to the line. It's like a QB who's never played under center. He may be a decent outside runner, but the corner is harder to get in the NFL. Please keep in mind, that I don't see him as a total bust. I think he is a situational running back and I like Sproles much better in that role. My point is you don't take a situational running back with the 44th pick. It also worries me that he wasn't an impact player until his senior year. He had only a decent JC career. I prefer a back who has shown year-to-year performance. People mention Sanders doing the same thing, but he played behind Thurman Thomas. As a junior, Arrington couldn't unseat Adimchinobe Echemandu, who by the way put up good enough numbers in this offense to be All-Pac 10. Arrington also has some tendency to put the ball on the ground and this is often intensified by the bigger hitters in the NFL. My last concern is that the tall, athletic defensive ends you see in the NFL will go right over him to the quarterback. He was a willing, but often ineffective blocker when asked to do so in college. This guy does not play nearly as strong as he looks in workouts. On the character side, this is a fine young man, who like Rolle, is a very hard worker. I just think the Cards had better choices. By the way, I'd love to be proved wrong on this assessment.
There was no better choice (unless you count Blackstock) at his point of the draft than Eric Green. He's a Florida guy who starred as a QB and DB in high school. He is super fast and has a nice burst to the ball on top of that. He has decent height (5'11") and a 38"vertical. This guy will make a great nickel back, as he is very smart and reads plays well. He can play complex defenses and is always in position. In addition to his quickness, he possesses great quickness and agility. He is very fluid out of his break and stays with double moves as well as any corner coming out this year. His weaknesses are all correctable. He needs to add strength and play more physically. He relies too much on his athleticism. This will also help him shed blocks better, which is a big issue in run support. He has a few technique flaws, such as staying too upright when switching off his backpedal. His tackling technique needs improvement, especially in run support. He gets too low, too early and is easily stiff-armed away. He makes interceptions, but he would make many more if he didn't body catch the ball. He needs to trust his hands. I love guys who have a big coaching upside. If he improves his tackling he could be a big factor on special teams as his athleticism made him an excellent kick blocker ( like many at VT), who excels coming off the edge. He played his career against the top passing teams in the nation and held up well. He won't be intimidated by the NFL. Another great potential leader, he won the President's Award for Leadership. Early in his career he was not much of a team player, but Frank Beamer sat him down and straightened him out. Since then he has been one of the best at his position in the college ranks. He has outstanding character and no issues. If you want to dream, imagine this guy and Macklin as the corners with Wilson and Rolle as the safeties. Now that is a scary secondary. It won't happen this year, but it might be the future alignment.*
*
Unless your counting the dollars Aaron Rodgers lost, Blackstock suffered the biggest drop of the draft. Green is hoping for a Dockett-like result with this choice and he might just get it. Many of us had this guy in the first round. In the chat room we were all wondering if some big secret had caused him to drop. If there is a secret, it's being well kept. I think he fell because of the "too much information" phenomena and the fact that people forget these players are still nearly kids. Lets take the too much info issue first. Many scouts have locked into the fact that this guy played in 3-4 and have pigeon-holed him in that roll. He did come up and play on the line frequently when Canty was injured, so he lost reps at linebacker than too. Yes, he needs to develop more cover skills as a result, but forget all that: he can play. He ran a 4.5-4.6 on Pro Day and that's fast for a linebacker. He has more moves than most defensive ends and surprisingly polished technique. He admittedly has problems. He is least effective against the run when he plays on the line. He doesn't use his hands well and often gets tied up. Mankins, the surprise Pat's choice, was effective handling Blackstock by mauling him. Still, Blackstock broke LT's record for career sacks by a linebacker and that pretty much says it all. He is an explosive blitzer with a more explosive first step than Johnson in my opinion. Blackstock has an outstanding burst to the QB when he gets close and he is very hard for a back to block. In college he could typically only be stopped by double-teams and with the Cards' defensive ends, he won't see much of that. Between his 39" vertical and his 6'3" frame, he is hard to throw over. He has quick hands and frequently knocks down passes. He is unusually alert for the ball and often recovers fumbles. In pass coverage he does have somewhat stiff hips, but his speed mostly compensates. His tendency to bite on play action will have to be corrected. He sometimes seems to have Simeon Rice syndrome and get too focused on getting to the QB, though you seldom see him run by the ball carrier as Rice often did. Blackstock is more than willing to mix it up when it comes to tackling. He needs to improve his leg strength so he can shed blockers more easily. He does so well in space, but not in a crowd. You'll enjoy him running down people from behind. He has that extra gear that allows him to play all over the field and he is especially effective in pursuit behind the line. If they can keep his head in the game, he is perfect for Pendergast's defense. Another key too much info issue is that he attended military school. Everyone assumes he was a major discipline problem, but that's not the case. He had problems with school and simply didn't like it. He would never have gotten into college without that kind of hard discipline. He is not a rocket scientist and lacks maturity, but he readily accepted the need for a more disciplined approach to the classroom. Still, he will never graduate college and he already has a child. This leads us to the real issue. This guy is still a kid. He is more immature than many coming out of college at this stage. People were likely afraid that if they gave him the big money, trouble would follow. Even third round money may be an issue. In college he was so happy to get there that he probably had his best year his first year. He was perhaps the top first year OLB that season. He regressed and then turned it on again to hopefully move to the NFL. Those are again indicators of immaturity. His favorite player, not surprisingly, is Randy Moss. Here' where I see this going. Blackstock says he be fine playing with a tough coach and that's what the Cards should show him, not coddle him like they did with Moss. Blackstock may well be the starter this year if he can stay disciplined and show his complete game. At the least, he will be a force in long passing situations. If he matures, he's a steal. If not he's an awesome role player who will leave for bigger money when he nears free agency. He was an excellent choice who can immediately contribute.*
So the Cards got one certain every down player in Rolle. Arrington and Blackstock could also be starters as well. Green will be the nickel and could fill in with reasonable first year effectiveness should a starter go down. He certainly has the ability to start one day. It's not last's year's group, but it should already be enough for the Cards to be playoff bound.
Arizona - A - Yes, I believe objectively they did the best; another astonishing haul of immediate impact players.
* Best Selection - Rolle is a future Pro Bowl player who should have been the first defensive player selected in this draft.
* Value Choice - Blackstock adds to an already potent pass rush. He's not a complete player yet, but he has the tools to be one.
* Worst Pick - McCoy is not the real McCoy and deserved to be left undrafted.
