The 6 Wins Debate

[cardncubfan]

I'm glad that Rugby enjoys spending so much time looking at rosters and putting quality thought into his posts. Makes for superior threads that demand deeper thinking for responses.

I question that keeps bouncing around in my brain is how bad were Snyder, Colledge and Sendlein? Obviously Young, Batiste were and are hot garbage and Massie stank it up for the first 8 games. But then the light bulb goes on for Massie and Potter played far better than Young and Batiste.

So Snyder was hampered by an elbow injury all year and horrible RT play next to him for half the season. He gets cut by the new regime and then gobbled up by his old team fairly quickly. The 49ers had like 15 draft picks and still needed to bring Snyder back as at least a back up. How bad is Snyder really?

Grimm has been labeled as a horrible Oline coach by most and yet Arians was looking to bringing him and Whiz with him if he became a HC for a team not named the Cardinals. So how bad is Grimm? I'll go on record as saying I'm glad he's gone and leave it at that. This means that the Oline coaching has to improve, right? If so then the Oline play has to be better simply because the first 8 games last year it was horrific.

Both College and Sendlein have started on Olines that played in the SB, so did Levi for that matter. This tells me they aren't hot garbage and can start on an NFL team. So those 3 start along with Massie and now Cooper and that means upgrade....right?

Now factor in a legit NFL QB and the Oline will at least play a little better, right? A QB who can complete passes and dump the ball off quicker and scare teams at least a little bit with the long ball should stop teams from putting 8 to 9 defenders in the box. This should improve a run game that was hampered not only by the lack of a quality RB but also little threat of a passing game.

A QB who can actually read a defense and throw an accurate ball will generate more first downs, help with the time of possession and actually score some points will also help the D.

QB -HUGE upgrade
RB - Upgrade. Yes it's mostly on paper but an Injured Beanie and Williams makes it a slam dunk the position is upgraded.
OL - Upgrade. Cooper in of himself improves the line.
WR - Great unit so I'll play it safe and say push. Forget that, having a legit QB means we get far more production from this unit.
TE - With a legit QB and a HC who loves to use the position expect more production from this unit.

Dline- Upgrade. CC and DD allowed to play to their strenghts and the depth just got younger and better.
OLBer - At best a push and the glaring hole on the D side of the ball.
ILBer - Upgraded big time. I'll just hitch my wagon to Rugby's post.
CB - At least a push at this time.
Safety - Losing ADub did hurt. Rhodes will be missed. Thing is Rashad was starting to make some plays last year. Didn't he have a couple of picks when his playing time was expanded? Probably one of the reasons why the FO felt they could cut the pricey Safety tandem.

Why I see more than 6 wins and will dissapointed with less than 8 is the change in coaching staff and FO. Arians proved last year he knows how to use rookies. He will do so with this years crop and that means more wins, especially coupled with a legit NFL QB.

Good post Cardiac.

 

[HotSauce]

I agree with K9 and Rugby that the Rams will be the test as that team is really staring at a step back season.

Bradford has been underwhelming at times. Some say this is because of a lack of weapons, but losing Amendola didn't help.

They lost Steven Jackson who was a physical presence their team depended on. He is gone and they didn't replace him.

Amendola is a big loss because he had a great repoire with Bradford. Adding Cook and Austin look great on paper, but in reality, they come with huge question marks. Cook is a liability in the run game and only showed flashes with the Titans. Austin is very small, and will struggle with the physicality of the NFL. His developmental curve will dictate the effectiveness of the Rams passing game.

The Rams defense is good, but if you can limit their front 4, they become limited because of talent. S is a big issue for the Rams.

We will see, because obviously the Cardinals have issues as well. However, if we can get production out of our offensive line, our offense has all of the pieces to become a very dangerous unit. We have the running backs to produce a decent running game though not a dynamic one on paper. Our wide receivers are as talented as any in the NFL thanks to Fitzgerald and have the potential to create huge issues for any secondary in the NFL. Again, we will see.

I don't know. I'm not going to sleep on the Rams like you appear to be doing.

IMO, even as a rookie, Austin is a significant upgrade over the injury prone Amendola who missed so many games. He's going to be a major matchup problem for opposing defenses. Just as quick but MUCH faster.

The team basically cut Jackson by letting him out of his contract. They must really think highly of those two rookies they drafted last year. They may not be as physical, but they are a lot faster. It's like Fisher has moved away from Eddie George (power) and prefers Chris Johnson type (speed) backs now or something. And they've added a kid who IMO is a sleeper in Zac Stacy.

And I don't believe the Rams signed Jared Cook to be a run blocker. They've got Lance Kendricks for that. If used properly, he's another matchup problem in the passing game as a big 6-5, 250 receiving TE.

If that Givens kid who scorched the team last year continues to improve, they get something out of Quick, and they don't has as many Oline injuries as last year, that team might surprise the league.

All in all, I don't believe that team is going to be a good matchup for the defense. They've added a lot of speed over the past couple of seasons.

 

[Darkside]

I think we're going to win a lot more than 6 games. QB is the only position that can seriously alter a team. In the NFCW we're the only team to drastically improve our QB position. So even while I think the other teams improved, I think we've improved a lot more--and that doesn't even take into account any of our draft picks. Strictly speaking for this year, the Palmer acquisition will have a more direct impact on games than the other teams' draft picks combined (this year).

When we include the draft picks, I look specifically at what BA did last year when he won coach of the year and coached a bunch of rookies to an 11-5 record, and I also look at what he did with Big Ben. He coddled Ben to some extent, in my opinion, but what matters is that he got him to play at his maximum level. Even if the draft is a wash as a whole, with everyone in our division having similar "success", I think BA will get more out of his rookies than the other coaches--partly out of necessity (because he has to play them), and partly due to coaching and motivational factors.

We've had teams with more talent and bad records, but I think one thing we lacked, and have always lacked, is an identity. Whis gave us an identity with the SB run, when Fitz and Boldin broke out. BA is perfect for how this team is already built and the philosophy they want to employ. BA even says it's virtually the same playbook, so the pieces are already in place.

Palmer is worth more than a few extra wins--and we won our first 4 games last year against good teams with awful Oline and QB play and no running game! Just awful. I think--even if Palmer just has a Palmer type year--that we compete in this division again this year. However, if Palmer is actually the player people thought he was when he was drafted, and if he still has that fire burning inside, considering this is probably the best team he's played on, with the best coaching staff he's played for--if all those things are true he could have a great year and all bets are off in my mind.

We made larger improvements to our team than anyone else in our division this year: new coaching staff and GM, new QB, and the fact that many of our draft picks will actually play often this year. The offensive philosophy and scheme will already be familiar and we have better players to execute it.

 

[Chopper0080]

I don't know. I'm not going to sleep on the Rams like you appear to be doing.

IMO, even as a rookie, Austin is a significant upgrade over the injury prone Amendola who missed so many games. He's going to be a major matchup problem for opposing defenses. Just as quick but MUCH faster.

The team basically cut Jackson by letting him out of his contract. They must really think highly of those two rookies they drafted last year. They may not be as physical, but they are a lot faster. It's like Fisher has moved away from Eddie George (power) and prefers Chris Johnson type (speed) backs now or something. And they've added a kid who IMO is a sleeper in Zac Stacy.

And I don't believe the Rams signed Jared Cook to be a run blocker. They've got Lance Kendricks for that. If used properly, he's another matchup problem in the passing game as a big 6-5, 250 receiving TE.

If that Givens kid who scorched the team last year continues to improve, they get something out of Quick, and they don't has as many Oline injuries as last year, that team might surprise the league.

All in all, I don't believe that team is going to be a good matchup for the defense. They've added a lot of speed over the past couple of seasons.

I'm not sleeping on St. Louis, but they have a TON of hurdles to overcome this year.

Can Bradford get better without his best weapon (Amendola)? Huge question.

Can Pead, Richardson and Stacy really give this team the production and leadership that Steven Jackson did. I doubt it.

Can Quick, Givens and Tavon Austin replace the production of Amendola? I doubt it. It takes rookies time to adjust to the NFL and Austin will also have to overcome some physical limitations. There is nothing scary about this group IMO.

Can Cook finally become an impact TE consistently? Teams don't let young, players leave via free agency very often. This makes me question if Cook can really develop to match his athleticism.

Can Jake Long be Jake Long? I doubt it. He has failed to finish the past two seasons and has struggled in pass protection. Maybe he plays the full season, but he is a player who has struggled with injuries playing in the soft AFC East. Now, he moves to the most physical division in the NFL and is expected to stay healthy? Call me skeptical.

You think our S's are bad? TJ McDonald and Darian Stewart are going to have a steep learning curve in the passing game.

This all being said, Long, Quinn, Brockers, Laurinaitis, Finnegan and Jenkins can make up for a bunch of deficiencies. I am just not sold on the Rams taking the next step like everyone seems to think they will.

 

[HotSauce]

I'm not sleeping on St. Louis, but they have a TON of hurdles to overcome this year.

Can Bradford get better without his best weapon (Amendola)? Huge question.

Can Pead, Richardson and Stacy really give this team the production and leadership that Steven Jackson did. I doubt it.

Can Quick, Givens and Tavon Austin replace the production of Amendola? I doubt it. It takes rookies time to adjust to the NFL and Austin will also have to overcome some physical limitations. There is nothing scary about this group IMO.

Can Cook finally become an impact TE consistently? Teams don't let young, players leave via free agency very often. This makes me question if Cook can really develop to match his athleticism.

Can Jake Long be Jake Long? I doubt it. He has failed to finish the past two seasons and has struggled in pass protection. Maybe he plays the full season, but he is a player who has struggled with injuries playing in the soft AFC East. Now, he moves to the most physical division in the NFL and is expected to stay healthy? Call me skeptical.

You think our S's are bad? TJ McDonald and Darian Stewart are going to have a steep learning curve in the passing game.

This all being said, Long, Quinn, Brockers, Laurinaitis, Finnegan and Jenkins can make up for a bunch of deficiencies. I am just not sold on the Rams taking the next step like everyone seems to think they will.

We will have to agree to disagree on this one.

I don't have nearly the questions or skepticism that you have.

- Amendola has only played in 12 games the past couple of seasons.

- If Cook didn't fight the TE vs WR franchise tag designation he'd still be a Titan.

- Tavon Austin has had size limitations his whole life and he doesn't have to immediately become a complete WR to be a significant matchup problem. I don't see how someone like him isn't scary. He's scary enough on returns alone. I can only imagine how scary he's going to be moved all over the field into favorable matchup with his quickness and pure speed.

- Givens torched the team deep twice last year.

- Jake Long doesn't have to be Jake Long just better than what they had.

- Jackson's leadership might be missed, his 4.1 yards per carry shouldn't be too much of an issue to replace.

- And I'm not sure what happened to Stewart last year, but he was looking pretty good as a starter in 2011. nfl.com even lists him with 11 passes defensed that year.

 

[Chopper0080]

We will have to agree to disagree on this one.

I don't have nearly the questions or skepticism that you have.

- Amendola has only played in 12 games the past couple of seasons.

- If Cook didn't fight the TE vs WR franchise tag designation he'd still be a Titan.

- Tavon Austin has had size limitations his whole life and he doesn't have to immediately become a complete WR to be a significant matchup problem. I don't see how someone like him isn't scary. He's scary enough on returns alone. I can only imagine how scary he's going to be moved all over the field into favorable matchup with his quickness and pure speed.

- Givens torched the team deep twice last year.

- Jake Long doesn't have to be Jake Long just better than what they had.

- Jackson's leadership might be missed, his 4.1 yards per carry shouldn't be too much of an issue to replace.

- And I'm not sure what happened to Stewart last year, but he was looking pretty good as a starter in 2011. nfl.com even lists him with 11 passes defensed that year.

This totally reminds me of Cardinals thinking.

Replace proven and productive players with young and unproven players. Amendola has proven that he can play in this league. Replacing him with unproven players who hope to adjust to their new roles is a very big risk especially when you are counting on those players to make you underachieving QB better.

Signing risk players to fill a need and then depending on any production being better than what they had. They gave Jake Long top money but Saffold wasn't terrible last year. In order to be an upgrade, Jake Long does need to be Jake Long or they wasted their money.

Paying big money to players who haven't earned it. The Rams gave big money to an underperforming TE in Cook who, as you said, did what he could to buck the system and leveraged his way off of his old team.

Replacing team leaders with unproven players. Steven Jackson gave the Rams 4.1 yads per carry in one of the toughest divisions in football when the team did not have a credible passing game. Where is this team's toughness going to come from? The Cardinals have never been able to replace Boldin's leadership, toughness or declining production and Cardinals fans justified his leaving in due to replaceable stats.

I'm not saying the Rams are sunk. They have a great head coach. What I am saying is that they have as many question marks as almost any team in the NFL.

 

[kerouac9]

This totally reminds me of Cardinals thinking.

Replace proven and productive players with young and unproven players. Amendola has proven that he can play in this league. Replacing him with unproven players who hope to adjust to their new roles is a very big risk especially when you are counting on those players to make you underachieving QB better.

Signing risk players to fill a need and then depending on any production being better than what they had. They gave Jake Long top money but Saffold wasn't terrible last year. In order to be an upgrade, Jake Long does need to be Jake Long or they wasted their money.

Paying big money to players who haven't earned it. The Rams gave big money to an underperforming TE in Cook who, as you said, did what he could to buck the system and leveraged his way off of his old team.

Replacing team leaders with unproven players. Steven Jackson gave the Rams 4.1 yads per carry in one of the toughest divisions in football when the team did not have a credible passing game. Where is this team's toughness going to come from? The Cardinals have never been able to replace Boldin's leadership, toughness or declining production and Cardinals fans justified his leaving in due to replaceable stats.

I'm not saying the Rams are sunk. They have a great head coach. What I am saying is that they have as many question marks as almost any team in the NFL.

Meh. I think the truth is somewhere in between. The fact of the matter is that the Arizona Cardinals are going to have to be better than the St. Louis Rams if they're going to compete in the division. And it'll start on September 8 when they face the Rams in St. Louis.

I don't think that anyone is saying "If the Cards can't beat the Rams, they're going to be a three-win football team." I think that what people are approaching the St. Louis question saying is that the Rams are at worst a league-average team, and if the Cards aspire to be an above-average team in 2013, they're going to have to beat the Rams and probably beat them twice.

 

[HotSauce]

This totally reminds me of Cardinals thinking.

Replace proven and productive players with young and unproven players. Amendola has proven that he can play in this league. Replacing him with unproven players who hope to adjust to their new roles is a very big risk especially when you are counting on those players to make you underachieving QB better.

Signing risk players to fill a need and then depending on any production being better than what they had. They gave Jake Long top money but Saffold wasn't terrible last year. In order to be an upgrade, Jake Long does need to be Jake Long or they wasted their money.

Paying big money to players who haven't earned it. The Rams gave big money to an underperforming TE in Cook who, as you said, did what he could to buck the system and leveraged his way off of his old team.

Replacing team leaders with unproven players. Steven Jackson gave the Rams 4.1 yads per carry in one of the toughest divisions in football when the team did not have a credible passing game. Where is this team's toughness going to come from? The Cardinals have never been able to replace Boldin's leadership, toughness or declining production and Cardinals fans justified his leaving in due to replaceable stats.

I'm not saying the Rams are sunk. They have a great head coach. What I am saying is that they have as many question marks as almost any team in the NFL.

I see what you are saying. And while they surely have question marks, most of the ones you list aren't as big to me. And how much a player is paid doesn't amount to a hill of beans on game day.

Amendola is proven and may be missed. My point was that he's missed so many games already, it's not like that's anything new.

And rookie or no, there is no steep learning curve for Austin with quickouts, touch passes, end arounds, quick flips out of the backfield, drags, etc... like he did in college. And unlike Amendola, he can take it to the house on almost every play. That's not scary to you?

I mean, have you seen this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AAWC5t0trY

Saffold wasn't terrible last year, but I'm going to guess that Long and him together are still better that what they had last year.

As far as Cook underperforming, how much of that was on him and how much of that was on the Titans QB situation? Got to admit that QB play has made a difference in Fitzgerald's numbers, too.

And again, I don't question a possible leadership void with Jackson. But, his backups had 4.8 & 5.4 yards per carry under the same circumstances. And that's probably why they let him out of his contract.

 

[kerouac9]

And rookie or no, there is no steep learning curve for Austin with quickouts, touch passes, end arounds, quick flips out of the backfield, drags, etc... like he did in college.

Have you seen this?



That's an MVP candidate, proven at the NFL level, at the top of his game. There's a difference between the NFL and NCAA. The difference is that those holes in coverage that Austin exploited are smaller, and close much quicker.

What was a 15 yard gain at West Virginny is going to be a six-yard gain in the NFL. Those bubble screens that are caught two yards behind the line of scrimmage in college are four-yard gains in the NFL. That's just how it is.

Also: Percy Harvin is good.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Also: Percy Harvin is good.

Harvin is like putting Patrick Peterson on offense.

Guy is an absolute freak of nature

Still doesn't scare me more then Frank Gore........but thats just me and the Cardinals are to blame for it.

 

[HotSauce]

Have you seen this?



That's an MVP candidate, proven at the NFL level, at the top of his game. There's a difference between the NFL and NCAA. The difference is that those holes in coverage that Austin exploited are smaller, and close much quicker.

What was a 15 yard gain at West Virginny is going to be a six-yard gain in the NFL. Those bubble screens that are caught two yards behind the line of scrimmage in college are four-yard gains in the NFL. That's just how it is.

Also: Percy Harvin is good.

Seen it. But, I also saw Harvin do the same thing in college and I didn't discount his being able to be a stud in the NFL either. And IMO, both guys are going to give this team hell on game day.

BTW, while Harvin is more physical, Austin is quicker, IMO.

 

[Cardiac]

It was obvious to me the Fisher spent a lot of time last year preparing for teams in the NFC West. They went 4 - 1 - 1 in the division and only won 3 more games out of the remaining 10.

Will Fisher be able to "out coach" the NFC West again this year? I kinda doubt it but they have upgraded the roster.

 

[Mulli]

It was obvious to me the Fisher spent a lot of time last year preparing for teams in the NFC West. They went 4 - 1 - 1 in the division and only won 3 more games out of the remaining 10.

Will Fisher be able to "out coach" the NFC West again this year? I kinda doubt it but they have upgraded the roster.

Just 2-1-1, if you take out the Card games .

 

[Cardiac]

Just 2-1-1, if you take out the Card games .