The Ayton Plan

[Cheesebeef]

I think he’s also way better defensively

Jordan wasn’t going out to the top of the key to meet anyone he didn’t have the feet to do that.

True, but Jordan ate glass, a dominant rebounder at 14 per during his prime and a better rim defender/shot blocker. So Ayton may have more flexibility to cover on the perimeter but he’s not the dominant defensive force downlow Jordan was. Hopefully he gets there, especially if he ends up getting the max from us.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think he’s also way better defensively

Jordan wasn’t going out to the top of the key to meet anyone he didn’t have the feet to do that.

DJ was an all star, made an All NBA 1st Team, made the All NBA 3rd team twice, led the league in rebounding twice and made the All Defensive NBA 1st team twice. Ayton ought to be and may well become a better player than DJ but my point was that Paul made DJ look great and did the same thing for Ayton this postseason.

Our Deandre can do things on offense and defense that the other one couldn't but arguing that Ayton is already better than prime DeAndre Jordan is unsupportable IMO.

 

[1Sun]

This is dead wrong. With JJ the impasse was over 5 million total for the life of the entire contract, 5 years. So it was an impasse of a difference of 1 million dollars per year. That’s really next to nothing in NBA terms and that’s why Sarver deserved to be roasted so bad. Ayton’s escalators to Supermax would be MUCH MUCH more than that over the life of the contract if he hit Superman escalators.

That’s not a judgement on whether I think we should give him those escalators. It’s just the fact that the money being bargained over is MUCH different than the JJ situation.

That said, I think he should get the escalators. The idea that we’re hoping he does play well enough to earn them but get away without paying that level is cheap to me and sends a bad message. But it’s not as completely pathetically cheap like the JJ situation, though there are similarities. But the situations are not identical.

I was talking timing. To me, skimping on money is skimping on money, be it $1 million or $100 million. That's today's NBA. You need to spend to compete, and there are no sure bets. And with that understanding, if you can't or won't do so, you shouldn't be an NBA owner.

 

[Finito]

DJ was an all star, made an All NBA 1st Team, made the All NBA 3rd team twice, led the league in rebounding twice and made the All Defensive NBA 1st team twice. Ayton ought to be and may well become a better player than DJ but my point was that Paul made DJ look great and did the same thing for Ayton this postseason.

Our Deandre can do things on offense and defense that the other one couldn't but arguing that Ayton is already better than prime DeAndre Jordan is unsupportable IMO.

Jordan in his 3rd year averaged 7 points 7 rebounds. He owes his entire career to Paul showing up Jordan was a really good rebounder an elite one in his prime, but the game has changed. Ayton is already better offensively than Jordan ever was. They play different types of defense. You can’t play Ayton off the court like you could or can with Jordan or Gobert. You would see teams iso him and attack him on the perimeter. You can’t do that with Ayton because he can guard outside of the paint aswell.

Yeah those are nice but DJ making first team all NBA kind of speaks to a weak era for big men. Would you say prime DJ is better than today’s Embiid, Joker or AD? I wouldn’t

 

[Hoop Head]

I was talking timing. To me, skimping on money is skimping on money, be it $1 million or $100 million. That's today's NBA. You need to spend to compete, and there are no sure bets. And with that understanding, if you can't or won't do so, you shouldn't be an NBA owner.

And if you'd say that people wouldn't take issue with your posts. Instead you argue that it's "identical" when it's not. Words matter, this isn't just an issue of semantics.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Yeah those are nice but DJ making first team all NBA kind of speaks to a weak era for big men. Would you say prime DJ is better than today’s Embiid, Joker or AD? I wouldn’t

Yes I would say that prime DJ was easily better than DA has been. Ayton underperformed in probably a third of the games this past season. But if you're just talking about DA's postseason, I'd probably take that player of over prime DJ.

 

[95pro]

It seems like everyone is buying in on the team in regards to chemistry, continuity and being flexible financially. CP3, CP15 and Bridges have all 'given' the suns a team friendly deal...while the Ayton contract remains up in the air. And yet this is the guy who got suspended, confirmed verbally that he's seeking money, and is the most inconsistent of the latest contracts we have signed. Even Crowder is on the books for 10M/year. Just sign already DA.

 

[Covert Rain]

True, but Jordan ate glass, a dominant rebounder at 14 per during his prime and a better rim defender/shot blocker. So Ayton may have more flexibility to cover on the perimeter but he’s not the dominant defensive force downlow Jordan was. Hopefully he gets there, especially if he ends up getting the max from us.

In the playoffs, our paint became a highway when Ayton wasn't in there. He might not put up the block numbers that everyone expects but he was a force in the middle and anchored our defense. Game after game in the playoffs even the commentators kept bringing up how different the team looks when he is not in there. Ayton doesn't get credit for all the altered shots or plays offenses back out of when he is in there.

It really is this simple. Is the team the same without him? Does this team have the run they had? The answer is a resounding no for me. So get that damn thing done. I have no clue if he will EVER live up to his full potential but at the end of the day he was one of the best big men in the playoffs. Put up some historical numbers. This entire thing is so dumb. Get it done. You can always trade the guy later if something doesn't work out.

 

[Mainstreet]

Here is another wrinkle about the salaries for the NBA 2018 draft class. Jaren Jackson Jr. is extended for 4 years/ $105 million.

He was drafted #4.

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[AzStevenCal]

It really is this simple. Is the team the same without him? Does this team have the run they had? The answer is a resounding no for me. So get that damn thing done. I have no clue if he will EVER live up to his full potential but at the end of the day he was one of the best big men in the playoffs. Put up some historical numbers. This entire thing is so dumb. Get it done. You can always trade the guy later if something doesn't work out.

But it isn't that simple. And would we have had the same run without Paul, without Booker or without Bridges? No, we probably wouldn't have. I don't even think we get there without Payne.

I don't know that we are but IF we're contract blocked over the super max wording, that's potentially a huge deal. I saw this on RealGM (posted by Mullhollanddrive) and am just accepting the numbers but if we are tax repeaters (which we likely will be in 2 years) that 7 million dollar difference a year between the 25% limit and the 30% could cost us an additional 35 million a year just based on Ayton qualifying for the Super Max in one single year.

 

[Covert Rain]

But it isn't that simple. And would we have had the same run without Paul, without Booker or without Bridges? No, we probably wouldn't have. I don't even think we get there without Payne.

I don't know that we are but IF we're contract blocked over the super max wording, that's potentially a huge deal. I saw this on RealGM (posted by Mullhollanddrive) and am just accepting the numbers but if we are tax repeaters (which we likely will be in 2 years) that 7 million dollar difference a year between the 25% limit and the 30% could cost us an additional 35 million a year just based on Ayton qualifying for the Super Max in one single year.

That's a given. A team is about chemistry and the pieces that complement your team. You need a full puzzle. Could you just plug anybody else into that spot and would you have the same result? Again, I would say there probably is a handful of guys in the entire league that could have plugged that role for that run. So it's a no.

That's the bottom line. That goes for any essential piece of our primary rotation. There is only two paths here. You either sign a guy who currently fits that role or you risk losing that person and have to hedge your bets you can get someone who does. The odds are not in our favor. It is that simple. I am not referencing the cap of it all but the bottom line or end result. This isn't new territory. Teams get creative with their extensions all the time in the NBA. GET THE DAMN THING DONE.

 

[AzStevenCal]

That's a given. A team is about chemistry and the pieces that complement your team. You need a full puzzle. Could you just plug anybody else into that spot and would you have the same result? Again, I would say there probably is a handful of guys in the entire league that could have plugged that role for that run. So it's a no.

That's the bottom line. That goes for any essential piece of our primary rotation. There is only two paths here. You either sign a guy who currently fits that role or you risk losing that person have to hedge your bets you can get someone who does. The odds are not in our favor. It is that simple.

So, the possibility of Ayton costing the franchise roughly 70 million a year doesn't concern you? And again, that's just a possibility and it wouldn't happen unless DA qualified for the Super Max this season. Still, it seems risky.

That said, if it was "cave into whatever his demands are" or lose out on a chance to win it all, I'd probably do it. But we still have his rights for the next two years so unless he decides to teach the organization a lesson we should still have our contending window as long as CP doesn't decline. And I can't see him pulling a Markieff and bailing on his teammates given that it could easily impact his next contract.

 

[Hoop Head]

That's the bottom line. That goes for any essential piece of our primary rotation. There is only two paths here. You either sign a guy who currently fits that role or you risk losing that person have to hedge your bets you can get someone who does. The odds are not in our favor. It is that simple. I am not referencing the cap of it all but the bottom line or end result. This isn't new territory. Teams get creative with their extensions all the time in the NBA. GET THE DAMN THING DONE.

That seems to be the hold up, at least that's how I've perceived it. The Suns are trying to get creative to keep this team together while making sure everyone receives a fair deal but Ayton seems to be offended by that creativity. He wants to what the maximum amount he can get.

I'm not blaming anyone. It's not my money. I want an agreement to be made sooner than later.

 

[Mainstreet]

Most of the top teams tie up their salary in the top three players on the team. If a team gets that mix wrong they are in luxury tax hell.

The key is to be able to keep the team together and when they pass their peak/window, have valuable assets they can trade or have expiring contracts to clear space.

It looks to me the Suns are looking to make a 2-3 year run before they have to change their core players.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Most of the top teams tie up their salary in the top three players on the team. If a team gets that mix wrong they are are luxury tax hell.

The key is to be able to keep the team together and when they pass their peak/window, have valuable assets they can trade or have expiring contracts to clear space.

It looks to me the Suns are looking to make a 2-3 year run before they have to change their core players.

I'm hoping we can work it out with Ayton and then extend our window once CP leaves by using his salary to bring in another strong PG.

But we are going to be in luxury tax hell no matter what we do unless we just let Ayton walk and then not take CP's option year. And decisions the team makes now will have a bearing on that tax situation 2 years from now.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm hoping we can work it out with Ayton and then extend our window once CP leaves by using his salary to bring in another strong PG.

But we are going to be in luxury tax hell no matter what we do unless we just let Ayton walk and then not take CP's option year. And decisions the team makes now will have a bearing on that tax situation 2 years from now.

Yeah, I think the Suns are looking ahead financially to the departure of Chris Paul and then reboot in the sense of finding another point guard.

There is luxury tax hell and there is the next level where a team has to break up their core players.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Cant compare Booker and Ayton. Booker didn’t get suspended for 25 games in his second season thereby tanking a season for the team. Booker has always been a leader, even when not given anything of value to lead. No one ever questioned bookers effort or drive.

Why not? Because their flaws aren't the same?

Leadership is certainly not a prerequisite to getting a max contract. Nobody said anything about Booker's effort or drive, but there were certainly plenty of people who questioned his max.

Booker's shortcomings are different than Ayton's but neither is a slam dunk no brainer like a Lebron/Kawhi/Luka, and that's the point.

 

[Mainstreet]

Why not? Because their flaws aren't the same?

Leadership is certainly not a prerequisite to getting a max contract. Nobody said anything about Booker's effort or drive, but there were certainly plenty of people who questioned his max.

Booker's shortcomings are different than Ayton's but neither is a slam dunk no brainer like a Lebron/Kawhi/Luka, and that's the point.

Devin Booker really didn't have any competition on the Suns team when he was extended in 2018. He was their only star.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

It's incredible to me that someone would watch the playoffs last year and not want to pay Ayton. He made everything work defensively, and effectively neutralized Jokic/AD. He also shot at a historically accurate rate, and was an incredible effective offensive weapon.

Yeah, he's done some dumb things and he's not a killer, but max contracts aren't just for perfect players!

It's even more incredible that people would seriously consider trading him for a guy like Vucevic or Sabonis, or even a guy like KAT. None of those guys could hope to handle the defensive responsibilities that they put on Ayton.

 

[Proximo]

Bridges 4 years 90 million

1 down 1 to go

Oh by the way Cam is up for an extension next year.

Yes, and I have always assumed we will not have the money to resign him.

We can't pay 5 players 20 million a year.

 

[Proximo]

Yeah, I think the Suns are looking ahead financially to the departure of Chris Paul and then reboot in the sense of finding another point guard.

There is luxury tax hell and there is the next level where a team has to break up their core players.

I actually think you are correct.

If you listened very carefully to Sarvers last interview, he said they will have to pay luxury tax next year - not for the next few years.

I think that means he is only planning on keeping this team together for 2 years unless they win a title and it becomes financially more viable. Maybe the cap is going up enough after 2 years that is what he meant - I don't know but I definetley got the impression he REALLY does not like paying the luxury tax.

 

[Mainstreet]

It's incredible to me that someone would watch the playoffs last year and not want to pay Ayton. He made everything work defensively, and effectively neutralized Jokic/AD. He also shot at a historically accurate rate, and was an incredible effective offensive weapon.

Yeah, he's done some dumb things and he's not a killer, but max contracts aren't just for perfect players!

It's even more incredible that people would seriously consider trading him for a guy like Vucevic or Sabonis, or even a guy like KAT. None of those guys could hope to handle the defensive responsibilities that they put on Ayton.

I don't think anyone wants to trade Ayton but the financial reality is they can't afford to pay every player what they want. The Suns will likely have adjust their roster in order to pay everyone in the 2022-23 season. Ayton may be a part of that roster or not. The Suns will likely be looking to pay their best 3-4 players substantial money at that point.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

I don't think anyone wants to trade Ayton but the financial reality is they can't afford to pay every player what they want.

CP3/Bridges/Cam Payne have already taken team friendly and below market deals. Hopefully Ayton does the same, but you can't bank of everyone "taking one for the team".

Like it or not, Ayton's growth represents our best chance at winning a ring. Keeping him around is completely doable if Robert Sarver wants to do it.

 

[Mainstreet]

I actually think you are correct.

If you listened very carefully to Sarvers last interview, he said they will have to pay luxury tax next year - not for the next few years.

I think that means he is only planning on keeping this team together for 2 years unless they win a title and it becomes financially more viable. Maybe the cap is going up enough after 2 years that is what he meant - I don't know but I definetley got the impression he REALLY does not like paying the luxury tax.

I think the Suns decided to go for it now. That's probably one of the reasons they sold their G-League franchise because they are going with veteran players. The Suns are not planning to pay the luxury tax when their window of opportunity closes.

 

[Mainstreet]

CP3/Bridges/Cam Payne have already taken team friendly and below market deals. Hopefully Ayton does the same, but you can't bank of everyone "taking one for the team".

Like it or not, Ayton's growth represents our best chance at winning a ring. Keeping him around is completely doable if Robert Sarver wants to do it.

The Suns may keep Ayton next season in restricted free agency but at some point, some good players are going to have to be sacrificed to keep the core players together.

No one is saying Ayton is not a core player. The Suns may be just posponing the decision to make sure they are keeping the best 3-4 players together. It's a huge jump from Bridges $90 million contract to Ayton's possible $172 million contract with incentives to go to $207 million.

Of course the Suns have already paid Chris Paul as well.