The Ayton Plan

[Covert Rain]

Yeah, that pretty much sums up his entire Suns career. Not sure why anyone would expect anything different.

Like most young players you should see improvement. If you do or not is another story. I am going to try and track closely all season long how he matches up against the other centers.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Yeah but those plays didn't appear to be part of the regular offensive sets. I remember at least 3 where the play broke down and they tried to throw it to him on the block. He still should be able to do SOMETHING. Maybe it's because he was against Jokic which is no easy task for any center in the NBA. The dude is an MVP so there is that. The next 5 games or so will be interesting to see what we get out of him.

the dude ain't an MVP because of his work on the defensive end.

 

[dscher]

the dude ain't an MVP because of his work on the defensive end.

MVPs show up with effort every night whether their game is on or off...

 

[Mainstreet]

I was looking at the salaries for centers.

Trying to be objective, based on what we have seen thus far in his career, Ayton's yearly salary in RFA should be somewhere in the $20-25 million range.

Of course that can change with an anticipated increase of NBA revenue.

I bet the Suns would be happy with Richaun Holmes who makes under $12 million.

NBA Contracts

A real-time, sortable list of NBA contracts including total value, guaranteed money, and complete salary breakdowns.

www.spotrac.com

 

[Proximo]

Like most young players you should see improvement. If you do or not is another story. I am going to try and track closely all season long how he matches up against the other centers.

Well, I do expect improvement, and there has been some - a lot on defense actually, and a small amount on offense.

But if you were expecting his offensive game to suddenly morph after a 2 month offseason, I think that is beyond unreasonable expectiations.

 

[95pro]

Like most young players you should see improvement. If you do or not is another story. I am going to try and track closely all season long how he matches up against the other centers.

Might be more useful to just track Ayton's stats alone, independent of the opposing center. Why?

MVPs show up with effort every night whether their game is on or off...

Because in a similar fashion to MVP's, max players show up almost every night. We will see how much of an effort he's putting in day in and day out.

Well, I do expect improvement, and there has been some - a lot on defense actually, and a small amount on offense.

But if you were expecting his offensive game to suddenly morph after a 2 month offseason, I think that is beyond unreasonable expectiations.

Exactly this. Ayton has shown to be consistent and being inconsistent. A flash here and a flash there, we really shouldn't expect him to be unleashing this magical offensive game he's been hiding. He is what is.

To me, he is the living form of frustration. I leave my head shaking and find myself screaming at the tv.


This guys camp really screwed him over with the 5 years or nothing talk.

 

[Chaplin]

Look, the goal is to not have a player that has a great game once in every 5 games, our goal is to have a player that has one bad game in every 5. That would be a good start and he simply hasn't been able to do that in the regular season.

 

[Covert Rain]

the dude ain't an MVP because of his work on the defensive end.

He is not your average body playing center at the opposite team either who just happens to make you work your ass off on the other end as well.

 

[Hoop Head]

Look, the goal is to not have a player that has a great game once in every 5 games, our goal is to have a player that has one bad game in every 5. That would be a good start and he simply hasn't been able to do that in the regular season.

So much this. Ayton is more likely to disappear completely and lay an egg than carry us to victory.

The way I've always looked at him is it'ss harder to win without him but he isn't really responsible for very many wins on his own. I view that more as a depth issue than an Ayton thing. We've seen in the past that he hasn't even consistently outplayed his backups. He is really worth the cost of 2 and 1/2 Richaun Holmes or 4 Aron Baynes or 6 JaVale McGee's? I don't think so.

 

[Yuma]

“Really one thing about me throughout my whole life I’ve always learned to control what I can control,” Ayton said postgame. “At the same time, obviously I’m disappointed but I’m still trying to get us back to the Finals.

“I still have to represent the team and myself as well. And I’m just a competitor, man. I just like to compete to the best and every time I’m between them lines that’s what you’re gonna see outta me, nothing else.”


This is WAY more professional than I would be! LOL! I would have been literally screaming at every player on offense to get me the ball every trip down the floor. Then when Jokic pushed Booker, I would have punched him in the face! Then I would have told the coach, "Is this enough FORCE for you?" as I was escorted off the court! Flipping the Bird to Sarver if I could find him!!

You guys better be glad I am not Ayton!

 

[AzStevenCal]

So much this. Ayton is more likely to disappear completely and lay an egg than carry us to victory.

The way I've always looked at him is it'ss harder to win without him but he isn't really responsible for very many wins on his own. I view that more as a depth issue than an Ayton thing. We've seen in the past that he hasn't even consistently outplayed his backups. He is really worth the cost of 2 and 1/2 Richaun Holmes or 4 Aron Baynes or 6 JaVale McGee's? I don't think so.

I think he's easily worth more than a half dozen Aron Baynes but then, other than that short stretch where Baynes was an active threat from 3 he's more of a liability on the court than an asset.

But right now, I'd say Holmes is the better player, day in day out. Ayton outplays him for short stretches in almost every game and completely outplays for the whole game once in a blue moon but Richaun outplays him the rest of the time. I'd gladly trade him for Haliburton and Holmes when Holmes is tradable although I'm afraid even Sacramento isn't stupid enough to make that deal. But if DA were truly a max level player, that would be a steal for the other guys.

 

[Yuma]

So what happens if he has the same exact season as last year? Then his camp says they want 5 year max money or nothing again? We can offer the qualifying offer, or just let him walk, or work with his camp on a trade. At any point I doubt we offer him the 5 year max.

 

[Mainstreet]

So what happens if he has the same exact season as last year? Then his camp says they want 5 year max money or nothing again? We can offer the qualifying offer, or just let him walk, or work with his camp on a trade. At any point I doubt we offer him the 5 year max.

I think we are looking at a sign-and-trade if Ayton doesn't blossom this season.

It might be safer to trade him later this season with filler if necessary.

 

[Hoop Head]

I think he's easily worth more than a half dozen Aron Baynes but then, other than that short stretch where Baynes was an active threat from 3 he's more of a liability on the court than an asset.

But right now, I'd say Holmes is the better player, day in day out. Ayton outplays him for short stretches in almost every game and completely outplays for the whole game once in a blue moon but Richaun outplays him the rest of the time. I'd gladly trade him for Haliburton and Holmes when Holmes is tradable although I'm afraid even Sacramento isn't stupid enough to make that deal. But if DA were truly a max level player, that would be a steal for the other guys.

If Sacramento would trade Holmes and Halliburton for Ayton I'd have a hard time saying no. I like that, a lot. Halliburton would be a luxury on tnis team but I'm sure a number of fans would throw a fit since we could have selected him last year but in terms of straight value that's a good trade for us. It'll never happen though for various reasons.

The Halliburton draft stuff would look like James Jones regretted the Stix selection and basically would be admitting it in the eyes of pundits and the adding perception and storylines about bringing Holmes back also after letting him walk before. It would be a bad look for James Jones. Not that I think he'd pass on a deal solely for that reason but those are some of the variables to consider.

 

[Covert Rain]

I think we are looking at a sign-and-trade if Ayton doesn't blossom this season.

It might be safer to trade him later this season with filler if necessary.

This. Because I think there are teams that willing to pay him the max if the league wide reaction is any indication. In terms of trading him this season? It all depends. If the Suns are red hot looking like world beaters? No way. If they slip and don't look like the same team? It could be on because I think Sarver will try his hardest to save salary and unless Ayton clearly deserves it? He couldn't bring himself to pay it.

 

[JCSunsfan]

If Sacramento would trade Holmes and Halliburton for Ayton I'd have a hard time saying no. I like that, a lot. Halliburton would be a luxury on tnis team but I'm sure a number of fans would throw a fit since we could have selected him last year but in terms of straight value that's a good trade for us. It'll never happen though for various reasons.

The Halliburton draft stuff would look like James Jones regretted the Stix selection and basically would be admitting it in the eyes of pundits and the adding perception and storylines about bringing Holmes back also after letting him walk before. It would be a bad look for James Jones. Not that I think he'd pass on a deal solely for that reason but those are some of the variables to consider.

A guy we could have had and a guy we did have for our #1 overall pick. Wow.

 

[Hoop Head]

A guy we could have had and a guy we did have for our #1 overall pick. Wow.

And that is exactly why it won't happen. The results on the floor wouldn't be enough to silence that narrative. I'm not even certain the results would be that measurable anyway on their own. That narrative would be unavoidable and it paints an ugly picture. I know McD can be blamed for the Ayton pick but the rest falls on JJ so it can't even be spun in a positive manner.

If there were another pairing like that or a different team were involved then it wouldn't be that bad.

 

[Big Al]

So much this. Ayton is more likely to disappear completely and lay an egg than carry us to victory.

The way I've always looked at him is it'ss harder to win without him but he isn't really responsible for very many wins on his own. I view that more as a depth issue than an Ayton thing. We've seen in the past that he hasn't even consistently outplayed his backups. He is really worth the cost of 2 and 1/2 Richaun Holmes or 4 Aron Baynes or 6 JaVale McGee's? I don't think so.

Aron Baynes & JaVale McGee are nothing but nba journeymen and not even good ones at that. And Aron is garbage who will give you maybe 10 minutes per of inconsistent offense and no defense, speed, or agility. Richaun Holmes is probably at best 6'8 1/2" tall and very in close to basket limited offensively. Of the 3 I would go with Holmes but neither one of them has Ayto 's skill level. Atyon never had a true mentor coming into the league due to the Suns unwillingness or fear to have another skilled big man on the team. Look at last year's final run you had a bunch of 6'5" - 6'7" forwards trying to bang and man the power forward position in Jae Crowder pretending to be a power forward who can shoot an occasional 3 and will shoot out as many games as he shoot you in games, then there 6'5" Nater who yeah that's championship material for most sure... Not, and there's Mikal bridges who defense is good but at 6'6" 210 he's light weight and inconsistent offensively and the Buck's small forward Middleton kicked Bridges a** every game in the finals, 6'7 Craig didn't show much so Suns didn't return him, 6-10 joureyman Dario Saric has his a** served up everytime he walks on the court and anyone who say he's worth $9-10 million is nuts as contending teams wouldn't consider giving his inconsistent no rebounding self a slot on their team, and then there's the bottom tier big man of them all 7'0" freaking no rebounding, no speed, no defense, just a inconsistent non dependable jump shooter & smiley face @ $2+ million but it was $5 million Frank Kaminsky who the Suns think is going to one day play as he did in college at Wisconsin well don't hold you breath Suns that's not happening. And those are the players Ayton rolls out on the court with. He's the only legitimate big man the Suns had going against the likes of the 6'11"Giannis, 7'0"Lopez, 6'10 Bobby Portis and 6'7" Khris Middleton front line can you see the differences? Ayton is pretty much on the court alone the Suns frontcourt is manned by him only so the dude probably has to pace himself because when needs a breather then in come Dario or Kaminsky and you cross your fingers & pray because there's a tremendous drop in talent. So Ayton was young and not as mature sometimes as you would like but he should be just be coming out of college but he now has 3 years experience under his belt now. And I don't know if you agree with this but player development is for the most part a players responsibility but the team has to help in training with adequate staff also in a player's development and surround him with competent players so they all can compete together because you can't blame this all on Ayton. Although he must share in take part of the blame. We are or did ask a 19 year at the time with 1 year of college who was poorly coached by a recruiter (Sean Miller)not a skilled coach at the University of Arizona to play as well as he could and he gave the Suns double digits in scoring & rebounding and decent defense for 3 years. And he's not without his flaws but he needed coaching & guidance. The Suns wanted a finish polish product from day one. And stable teams like the Spurs, Lakers, and Bucks will coach & assist in Ayton's development. Michael Porter jr., Trae Young , and Luka Duncic and all those players don't play defense just one end of the court but they all received Max contracts with Doncic getting the Super Max of $207, Trae and Michael Porter, Shai Alexander, & Jaren Jackson got $172 million. The Suns have pay what the market value or Ayton will get paid elsewhere. And come back and haunt the cheap Suns & Sarver. Most on this feed would trade Ayton for peanuts. And although certainly not peanuts Karl Anthony Towns is soft as can be on defense and would cost the Suns more than just Ayton probably some players and some 1st round draft picks. I hope he improves & signs with the Suns as a restrictive free agent but there will be offers to Ayton. We might even see Karl Anthony Towns in exchange for Ayton, players and picks. Towns and Booker. Personally I rather have Ayton than Towns.

 

[Mainstreet]

This. Because I think there are teams that willing to pay him the max if the league wide reaction is any indication. In terms of trading him this season? It all depends. If the Suns are red hot looking like world beaters? No way. If they slip and don't look like the same team? It could be on because I think Sarver will try his hardest to save salary and unless Ayton clearly deserves it? He couldn't bring himself to pay it.

My thoughts, if Sarver is unwilling to pay Ayton anywhere near the max it would be less risky to trade him this season before he becomes a RFA because another team can offer him a toxic contract he doesn't want to pay once he hits free agency.

It all depends upon if Sarver is willing to pay the price if Ayton has a good season.

Also is Sarver willing to overpay Ayton if he has a modest season and does not take the next forward. There are always teams willing to overpay a player when they don't have much talent.

This is what we are going to be looking at as the season progresses. Of course if the Suns are looking like contenders it will be hard to trade Ayton.

 

[Covert Rain]

My thoughts, if Sarver is unwilling to pay Ayton anywhere near the max it would be less risky to trade him this season before he becomes a RFA because another team can offer him a toxic contract he doesn't want to pay once he hits free agency.

It all depends upon if Sarver is willing to pay the price if Ayton has a good season.

Also is Sarver willing to overpay Ayton if he has a modest season and does not take the next forward. There are always teams willing to overpay a player when they don't have much talent.

This is what we are going to be looking at as the season progresses. Of course if the Suns are looking like contenders it will be hard to trade Ayton.

Less risky but if the team is red hot? You think Sarver is getting blasted now? Try trading Ayton if the team returns to form. The fans would sharpen the pitchforks.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Aron Baynes & JaVale McGee are nothing but nba journeymen and not even good ones at that. And Aron is garbage who will give you maybe 10 minutes per of inconsistent offense and no defense, speed, or agility. Richaun Holmes is probably at best 6'8 1/2" tall and very in close to basket limited offensively. Of the 3 I would go with Holmes but neither one of them has Ayto 's skill level. Atyon never had a true mentor coming into the league due to the Suns unwillingness or fear to have another skilled big man on the team. Look at last year's final run you had a bunch of 6'5" - 6'7" forwards trying to bang and man the power forward position in Jae Crowder pretending to be a power forward who can shoot an occasional 3 and will shoot out as many games as he shoot you in games, then there 6'5" Nater who yeah that's championship material for most sure... Not, and there's Mikal bridges who defense is good but at 6'6" 210 he's light weight and inconsistent offensively and the Buck's small forward Middleton kicked Bridges a** every game in the finals, 6'7 Craig didn't show much so Suns didn't return him, 6-10 joureyman Dario Saric has his a** served up everytime he walks on the court and anyone who say he's worth $9-10 million is nuts as contending teams wouldn't consider giving his inconsistent no rebounding self a slot on their team, and then there's the bottom tier big man of them all 7'0" freaking no rebounding, no speed, no defense, just a inconsistent non dependable jump shooter & smiley face @ $2+ million but it was $5 million Frank Kaminsky who the Suns think is going to one day play as he did in college at Wisconsin well don't hold you breath Suns that's not happening. And those are the players Ayton rolls out on the court with. He's the only legitimate big man the Suns had going against the likes of the 6'11"Giannis, 7'0"Lopez, 6'10 Bobby Portis and 6'7" Khris Middleton front line can you see the differences? Ayton is pretty much on the court alone the Suns frontcourt is manned by him only so the dude probably has to pace himself because when needs a breather then in come Dario or Kaminsky and you cross your fingers & pray because there's a tremendous drop in talent. So Ayton was young and not as mature sometimes as you would like but he should be just be coming out of college but he now has 3 years experience under his belt now. And I don't know if you agree with this but player development is for the most part a players responsibility but the team has to help in training with adequate staff also in a player's development and surround him with competent players so they all can compete together because you can't blame this all on Ayton. Although he must share in take part of the blame. We are or did ask a 19 year at the time with 1 year of college who was poorly coached by a recruiter (Sean Miller)not a skilled coach at the University of Arizona to play as well as he could and he gave the Suns double digits in scoring & rebounding and decent defense for 3 years. And he's not without his flaws but he needed coaching & guidance. The Suns wanted a finish polish product from day one. And stable teams like the Spurs, Lakers, and Bucks will coach & assist in Ayton's development. Michael Porter jr., Trae Young , and Luka Duncic and all those players don't play defense just one end of the court but they all received Max contracts with Doncic getting the Super Max of $207, Trae and Michael Porter, Shai Alexander, & Jaren Jackson got $172 million. The Suns have pay what the market value or Ayton will get paid elsewhere. And come back and haunt the cheap Suns & Sarver. Most on this feed would trade Ayton for peanuts. And although certainly not peanuts Karl Anthony Towns is soft as can be on defense and would cost the Suns more than just Ayton probably some players and some 1st round draft picks. I hope he improves & signs with the Suns as a restrictive free agent but there will be offers to Ayton. We might even see Karl Anthony Towns in exchange for Ayton, players and picks. Towns and Booker. Personally I rather have Ayton than Towns.

The issue isn't what Ayton can't do, it's what he can do but fails to do for long stretches in almost every single game. He has the potential to add so much to his game but even if he never improved in any way, shape or form other than being focused and giving consistent effort, the max decision would be easy. And he'd rack up the All NBA awards for a decade or more to come.

But in the one game so far this season we've seen the same old Ayton. The guy looked like the best big man in the league for a stretch in the first quarter and was invisible for most of the rest of the game. He was like that in college and he's been like that for the 3 years prior to this season.

 

[Mainstreet]

Less risky but if the team is red hot? You think Sarver is getting blasted now? Try trading Ayton if the team returns to form. The fans would sharpen the pitchforks.

That's why I put the caveat in the last paragraph:

"Of course if the Suns are looking like contenders it will be hard to trade Ayton."

 

[Covert Rain]

That's why I put the caveat in the last paragraph:

"Of course if the Suns are looking like contenders it will be hard to trade Ayton."

Yeah...I was just reiterating what you said but taking it a step further. It wouldn't be just "hard" it would enrage the fans and the entire league. You don't break up a team in mid-season who is in playoff or possibly title form.

 

[Mainstreet]

Yeah...I was just reiterating what you said but taking it a step further. It wouldn't be just "hard" it would enrage the fans and the entire league. You don't break up a team in mid-season who is in playoff or possibly title form.

Exactly. Can't do this unless the Suns bring someone like Karl-Anthony Towns back.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

And that is exactly why it won't happen. The results on the floor wouldn't be enough to silence that narrative. I'm not even certain the results would be that measurable anyway on their own. That narrative would be unavoidable and it paints an ugly picture. I know McD can be blamed for the Ayton pick but the rest falls on JJ so it can't even be spun in a positive manner.

If there were another pairing like that or a different team were involved then it wouldn't be that bad.

It won't happen because it's an absurd trade that is laughably one sided. (Hint - it's not for the Suns) Would you honestly make that trade if you were GM? Send the lynchpin of your D to Sac for 6'8 Holmes to start? I love Richaun, but he's the kind of guy the Suns need to have IN ADDITION to Ayton, not to replace him.

Haliburton is a nice piece, but again, it makes no sense for a team hunting for a ring now. We KNOW Ayton can get you to the finals.

I hope you know on the national level, your valuation of Ayton is considerably lower than most. The vast majority of people are very surprised Ayton didn't get his contract, and that's not to say that conventional wisdom is always right, but going against and failing can lead to embarassment.

Seeing people talk about trading him for unproven rookies or guys like Vucevic and Sabonis is truly puzzling. None of these guys can provide anything near the D that Ayton brings to the table, and that's where he provides the bulk of his value. That's where even a supremely talented offensive weapon like KAT doesn't make sense.