The Ayton Plan

[95pro]

Please find me one quote or shred of evidence that Ayton thinks he's a #1 already.

He wants the full max, all or nothing. Thats enough right there.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Ayton will continue to get better probably all the way to age 30ish. Basketball fans have this insane view that guys are finished products in their early to mid 20s. It's dumb and not true. We've seen tons of players continue to get better until their physical decline around age 32ish. Even then that's not always true either.

If I were Ayton, I'd probably not work as hard either when I'm the third option. Devin Booker is a bit of a chucker at times and still takes a lot of dumb shots. The Suns need to feed Ayton early and often. Keep him engaged.

I never excuse lack of effort of one individual based on other individuals actions. You only have control over yourself. You want a max, lay out max effort. All the time. Anything less means you aren’t a max player.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Trade Ayton the second you can. I’m over it

Lol. Even I don’t want to get rid of Ayton.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I think that was the next step in our plan to work Ayton into the 2nd option. I also think Ayton thinks he's a #1 option already, who's clearly not. Ayton's notions of himself are way off base imo, he's thinks of himself differently than he is perceived...or he just has bad people in his ear right now.

Agreed. He’s not good enough at sealing his man, establishing low enough position, not fumbling the pass, or handling the ball to drive the hole to be a #1 on a high expectations championship caliber team. But he is good enough to be the #2 in order to keep developing those skills.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Please find me one quote or shred of evidence that Ayton thinks he's a #1 already.

I don't know if he thinks he's a #1 already but I suspect he does. Regardless, I think it's time to treat him like he's the big dog. Build the offense around him, force feed him until he's consistently drawing help defense and then turn the open shooters loose.

Maybe if he's the primary scorer he'll do a better job of setting himself up down low and if he's handling the ball frequently perhaps he'll begin to focus enough to actually catch all the catchable passes. If he does that, I can live with him going up a little softer than he should.

IOW, live or die with him.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

He wants the full max, all or nothing. Thats enough right there.

Proof of nothing. Teams often have multiple players making max money.

Where is the proof he thinks he's the #1 option?

 

[Cheesebeef]

The latest Monty news with CP3 has cemented my position. As frustrating as Ayton is, you go with talent in this league, especially young talent.

The fact that the ONLY time this team ran a good chunk of the offense thru Ayton was when Paul was out was a problem to me, Especially after it had a decent amount of success. The best teams can throw a bunch of different looks at you and if a D takes one thing away, you can then pivot. I think Monty was too scared to do so, and I kinda understand it a bit because DA can be so maddening with his lack of aggression and hands.

But here’s the reality… the title run is over. Which means we’re not in win at all costs anymore. The team is back in development mode and has good pieces to do so. And if there’s really this much of a beef between Monty and DA, then I go with talent over coach. Especially a coach who regularly has me scratching my head at lack of adjustments, schemes and game managing (timeouts).

Now, I still have reservations about giving Ayton all that money, but if Monty is having issues with players old and young, I’m more concerned with losing young talent and keeping a coach who might have lost the team.

 

[Mainstreet]

Trade Ayton the second you can. I’m over it

That was quick.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The problem is: Ayton can't pass himself the ball. He needs touches to be effective.

We disagree often on the Cardinals forum, but I think we see things the same here. Ayton is still a damn kid, and really freaking talented kid. And the Suns are about to run off the best center they've ever had over real dumb reasons.

Rebound

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Rebound

He can be better, but he's also asked to switch out on the perimeter...he's not planted around the hoop on D.

Definitely one of the areas where he can improve.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Aside from field goal percentage his stats haven't changed in 4 years in the NBA. What do you think his stats will be 4 years from now? Best case I'd say he gets 20 ppg, 11 reb and 2 ast.

Interestingly enough, you’re not entirely wrong. Ayton can certainly do more things now, but his numbers across almost all aspects aren’t materially different from year to year when looking at traditional counting stats. How does he look from advanced defensive analytics? And also interestingly enough, he’s only played in 69% of all regular season games possible, which is disappointing.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Please find me one quote or shred of evidence that Ayton thinks he's a #1 already.

He said he thinks that’s what Ayton thinks. So he’s literally saying that’s his conjecture.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The latest Monty news with CP3 has cemented my position. As frustrating as Ayton is, you go with talent in this league, especially young talent.

The fact that the ONLY time this team ran a good chunk of the offense thru Ayton was when Paul was out was a problem to me, Especially after it had a decent amount of success. The best teams can throw a bunch of different looks at you and if a D takes one thing away, you can then pivot. I think Monty was too scared to do so, and I kinda understand it a bit because DA can be so maddening with his lack of aggression and hands.

But here’s the reality… the title run is over. Which means we’re not in win at all costs anymore. The team is back in development mode and has good pieces to do so. And if there’s really this much of a beef between Monty and DA, then I go with talent over coach. Especially a coach who regularly has me scratching my head at lack of adjustments, schemes and game managing (timeouts).

Now, I still have reservations about giving Ayton all that money, but if Monty is having issues with players old and young, I’m more concerned with losing young talent and keeping a coach who might have lost the team.

It’s a players talent league not a coaches league (unless you’re pop).

 

[GatorAZ]

I don't know if he thinks he's a #1 already but I suspect he does. Regardless, I think it's time to treat him like he's the big dog. Build the offense around him, force feed him until he's consistently drawing help defense and then turn the open shooters loose.

Maybe if he's the primary scorer he'll do a better job of setting himself up down low and if he's handling the ball frequently perhaps he'll begin to focus enough to actually catch all the catchable passes. If he does that, I can live with him going up a little softer than he should.

IOW, live or die with him.

He can’t be the #1 option because he’s too limited. How many legit #1 options can’t really handle the ball or pass? Not saying he needs to be Jokic/Embiid but once the ball goes to him it’s complete tunnel vision from that point. I still think his best role offensively is a #2 with 25% more aggression.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

He can be better, but he's also asked to switch out on the perimeter...he's not planted around the hoop on D.

Definitely one of the areas where he can improve.

Yeah I was just responding he can score without being passed the ball. Make that real effort on the offensive glass.

 

[Bufalay]

Interestingly enough, you’re not entirely wrong. Ayton can certainly do more things now, but his numbers across almost all aspects aren’t materially different from year to year when looking at traditional counting stats. How does he look from advanced defensive analytics? And also interestingly enough, he’s only played in 69% of all regular season games possible, which is disappointing.

I looked up ESPN's DRPM (defensive real plus minus)

2019: I can't find it.
2020: 1.21
2021: 3.53
2022: 4.19 (40th in the NBA). Crowder is 5th, Paul is 22nd, Bridges is 23rd.

According the bbal ref his defensive box plus minus is:

2019: -1.1
2020: -0.4
2021: 0.1
2022: 0.6 (49th in the NBA).

For comparison, Chris Paul's DBPM is 2.3 (7th), Crowder is 6th overall and Bridges is 27th.

These stats support what we see by eye, his defense is much better, but he isn't really elite.

His advanced stats overall haven't improved much. His PER has been at around 20 to 21 for four years. I recall people arguing that 20 PER was good "for his age" four years ago and wondering if he was going to ever get better.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I looked up ESPN's DRPM (defensive real plus minus)

2019: I can't find it.
2020: 1.21
2021: 3.53
2022: 4.19 (40th in the NBA). Crowder is 5th, Paul is 22nd, Bridges is 23rd.

According the bbal ref his defensive box plus minus is:

2019: -1.1
2020: -0.4
2021: 0.1
2022: 0.6 (49th in the NBA).

For comparison, Chris Paul's DBPM is 2.3 (7th), Crowder is 6th overall and Bridges is 27th.

These stats support what we see by eye, his defense is much better, but he isn't really elite.

His advanced stats overall haven't improved much. His PER has been at around 20 to 21 for four years. I recall people arguing that 20 PER was good "for his age" four years ago and wondering if he was going to ever get better.

Interesting. Thank you for looking it up. So he improved over the four years but isn’t quite the elite defender some claim? Is that accurate?

 

[1tinsoldier]

He said he thinks that’s what Ayton thinks. So he’s literally saying that’s his conjecture.

not conjecture. i mentioned that Ayton quote in this thread before the playoffs started, because I watched him say "i'm the best" in an interview. the only assumption was that he was saying he was the best CENTER rather than the best overall basketball player (or video game player

 

[Finito]

Interesting. Thank you for looking it up. So he improved over the four years but isn’t quite the elite defender some claim? Is that accurate?

Interesting indeed

I expect so much more from you. Those stats are ridiculously misleading

If your gonna except Ayton at 49 then your gonna look me in the eye and tell me Jay Crowder is the 6th best defensive player in the NBA. So you think Crowder is the 6th best defensive player in the NBA and was our best defender last year, is that accurate?

Oh and Bridges the runner up for DPOY is the 27th best defender in the league.

Oh yes and the guy who actually won DPOY Marcus Smart…not even on the list(top 40)

Bruh

 

[overseascardfan]

PHX needs to re-sign Ayton, he is 23 years old and is a career double double player. PHX should hope he gets a max offer from another team as that will save them money. A 4 year max offer from another team would be 4 years $131M which is $46M less than what PHX would pay than a 5 year $177M max deal.

To me the money problem is Chris Paul. He folded in playoffs like a lawn chair and I think he will start declining yet will be making $30M for the next 3 years and that's money we could use to go after a young star PG. If Sarver is unwilling to go into deep end of luxury tax then sell the team and make a huge profit off his initial investment.

 

[AzStevenCal]

PHX needs to re-sign Ayton, he is 23 years old and is a career double double player. PHX should hope he gets a max offer from another team as that will save them money. A 4 year max offer from another team would be 4 years $131M which is $46M less than what PHX would pay than a 5 year $177M max deal.

To me the money problem is Chris Paul. He folded in playoffs like a lawn chair and I think he will start declining yet will be making $30M for the next 3 years and that's money we could use to go after a young star PG. If Sarver is unwilling to go into deep end of luxury tax then sell the team and make a huge profit off his initial investment.

We're only locked in for about half of CP's salary.

 

[AZ Native]

Yeah I was just responding he can score without being passed the ball. Make that real effort on the offensive glass.

I see his frustration but yeah, he could be helping himself a lot by being more aggressive on the glass at both ends and not avoid any contact at all.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I see his frustration but yeah, he could be helping himself a lot by being more aggressive on the glass at both ends and not avoid any contact at all.

Run the court hard on each possession and be more aggressive getting position to receive a pass or grab a board and he'd be the Ayton we'd hoped we were getting. He's good right now, he'd be great with just those changes.

 

[Bufalay]

Interesting. Thank you for looking it up. So he improved over the four years but isn’t quite the elite defender some claim? Is that accurate?

That's what I would conclude, but I as Finito pointed out these stats aren't perfect and Crowder probably isn't the 6th best defender in the league.

These stats measure how well a team plays defense when the player is on the court. The Suns defense was good as a team and I think its hard to assign credit to each player accurately if the majority of their minutes are played together.

One thing that really jumps out with the advanced stats is the Paul is by far the "best" player on the Suns. His advanced stats are much better than Booker's, for example.

 

[AzStevenCal]

That's what I would conclude, but I as Finito pointed out these stats aren't perfect and Crowder probably isn't the 6th best defender in the league.

These stats measure how well a team plays defense when the player is on the court. The Suns defense was good as a team and I think its hard to assign credit to each player accurately if the majority of their minutes are played together.

One thing that really jumps out with the advanced stats is the Paul is by far the "best" player on the Suns. His advanced stats are much better than Booker's, for example.

The problem with using stats to determine Ayton's defensive value is that sometimes, he absolutely is a great defender - and then there are those games where he just stands around or goes timid due to fouls or an all night gaming session? We get more good nights than bad nights out of him but we still get soft Ayton way too often.