The Cards Draft Game Plan?

[Cardiac]

I think most of us can agree that the team has it's biggest needs at these positions:

DE : Huge upgrade needed at RDE

DT : Even if Bryant pans out we still need a force in the middle

CB : Starks coming off injuries, Barrett not entirely proven, no depth

WR : A proven #1 would be nice.

QB : Blake isn't the long term answer and the jury is still out on McCown and Parsons.

There are a couple of draft philosophies:

Best Player/Athlete Available

Greatest Need

A melding of BPA and Need

Saturation - which is pick a position of need early and often


Another level to all of this is that many teams feel that Defense wins Championships. Given to this philosophy they may pass on an Offensive player with a grade of 8.9 for a Defensive player with a grade of 8.5 or even less. Add to this that DE's, DT's and CB's are often picked over fairly heavily in rd 1 while OG's, C's are often ignored. The only position on Defense that gets similar treatment is at Safety.

The only position that typically gets over valued on Offense is at QB. Nothing helps turns the fortunes of a struggling team more than a Franchise QB. Sometimes this happens at RB and even WR but rarely on the O-line. Of course LT's are the safest bets in rd 1, fewer busts than any other position, but this is due to the fact that teams are far better at grading this position than any other on the team.

Good news for the Cards is that the DT position is very strong this year. Of course so is the QB position, but this is where most mistakes are made.

There are two "can't miss" CB's in this draft and one of them should be available for the Cards at number 6.

There are also two highly touted WR's and we all know the Cards could use one of them.

Suggs appears to be the only DE with enough value to be taken at 6.

Now we need to factor into the equation that QB's and WR's take at least 1 full year to make an impact. Defensive players usually take far less time to reach their potential.

Many mock drafts have the Cards taking offense (WR & QB) in the first two to three rounds. Many fans feel this should be at least a strong consideration. Others feel that another year of minimal sacks and poor run defense has got to stop.

So what is the plan?

Does the front office truly believe the Cards can contend for a playoff position this year and if so is that realistic? If the answer is no then they should take a Franchise QB in rd 1. Then get their future #1 WR in rd 2. The run on defense will almost insure that a great WR prospect slides to the Cards in rd 2. There is a great deal to be said for the value of picking up a Franchise QB and a potential 1st rd WR in rd 2. Great value and both players will start to emerge when the team is closer to making a true run at the playoffs.

Does the front office have enough faith in McCown and the young WR crew to believe thay only need to improve their defense to be playoff contenders? If so then whoever is left in rd 1 between Suggs, Robertson, Newman, Trufant, or Kennedy should be the pick. Then whatever position wasn't addressed in rd 1 and offers the BPA should be the 2nd rd pick.

I think as the draft unfolds we will all know how the Cards management truly feels about this upcoming season and players like McCown, McAddley and Gilmore.

I know that I want the Defense addressed early and often but my number one belief is that the Cards should take the BPA in almost every circumstance.

 

[Garthshort]

Draft Game Plan

Cardiac, I'm sure the Cards, if they don't trade down, will take the BPA. And you identified the usual list of suspects. While I hope they don't draft Leftwich because of their greater needs on defense he seems to be the mystery man, based on some reported Graves' comments. I also hope they don't draft a WR until the 2nd or 3rd round because our greatest need is DL, and the WR pool is very deep. If everything fell our way I'd hope for the following day one scenario:

1. DE (Suggs)
2. WR(Washington, Byant Johnson, Brandon Lloyd)
3. CB (BPA)

Unfortunately, things rarely fall the Cardinals way. But in three weeks we'll see.

 

[Cardiac]

Well I hope you're right that they go BPA, but that might very well mean that Leftwich could be their choice. If Leftwich gets a clean bill of health how do you pass on a franchise QB. Ever since Lomax retired the Cards have needed a great QB. Plummer faked most of us out for several years but in the end the lack of a truly good NFL QB has been the teams biigest problem.

What I neglected to mention is that if the Cards front office feels that:

KVB will make a bigger impact this year because he is now fully recovered from his knee injury.

D. Johnson will be the speed rusher this team so desperately needs.

Fisher and Thompson will become very effective blitzers

Bryant will play up to his draft status.

Tanner, R. Davis and M. Bell will continue to improve.

Holliday is signed.

Wakefield continues to improve his game.

Then they may go offense and look hard at CB.

Of course their are alot of "ifs" on this list but once again this may play a part in their draft strategy.

Since their are so many "ifs" and questions on both sides of the ball I think that the BPA strategy is our best option. With all of the depth that was picked up this offseason the team needs to draft players who have the greatest chance of succeeding in the upcoming years.

What this all means is that come draft day we all might be saying WTF at some of our teams picks. The good news is that no matter who is available when we draft the team should be able to get a player that will help the team. The sole exception would be at OT and OG.

 

[GhostOfChowder]

I disagree with taking the Best Player Available. Teams, especially those in the Cardinal situation, should take for need rather then just a BPA. The BPA might not fill a specific need, might not be able to contribute immediately, and therefore, the pick could be a waste.

This team has too many holes. They should trade down, get "players" instead of "player."

 

[Cardiac]

Originally posted by GhostOfChowder
I disagree with taking the Best Player Available. Teams, especially those in the Cardinal situation, should take for need rather then just a BPA. The BPA might not fill a specific need, might not be able to contribute immediately, and therefore, the pick could be a waste.

This team has too many holes. They should trade down, get "players" instead of "player."

Well if this team has so many holes than taking the BPA would almost always fill a need. I did list the exceptions on the O-line so why would going BPA not help. IMO you contradicted yourself.

As you will at some point comment on the fact that the Cards currently have few players that could be considered Pro Bowlers why would they not get some difference makers on the team?

If the Cards can trade down and still feel good about getting an impact player then I agree, but typically the earlier a team picks in the 1st round the better the chance of getting a stud.

 

[Walter Mitchell]

I believe that if the Cardinals do not trade down from the #6 slot, the first three picks will all be defensive linemen.

Round 1: #6 Suggs tops the list. If he's gone the focus shifts to Jimmy Kennedy, Dewayne Robertson or Eric Williams. One of these four players will most likely be a Cardinal.

Round 2: #37 The hope is that one of the following four players will be available: Kenny Peterson, Chris Kelsay, Corey Redding or Ty Warren. Dewayne White of Louisville and Tyler Brayton are possibilities as well.

Round 3: #70 Prospects with intriguing upsides at this point in the draft are: Antonio Garay, Alonzo Jackson, Kindal Moorehead, Antwaan Peek and Tully Banta-Cain.

My prediction:

#6 Dewayne Robertson

#37 Chris Kelsay

#70 Tully Banta-Cain

Analysis of the rest of the draft:

WR: The Cardinals need a #1. There are only two #1 WRs in this draft: Rogers and Johnson. This is one of the reasons why the Cardinals, IMO, will not draft a WR on the first day. Kelley Washington has #1 talent, but he's a headcase. He may be taken before #37 anyway. The rest of the WRs in this draft can be lumped together...they are all #2 or #3 types...no elite burners with size. I believe the Cardinals will set adise their 4th round pick to grab one of the tall, athletic WRs such as Billy McMullen, Justin Gage, Kassim Osgood...or Teyo Johnson or Tyrone Calico, if they slide into the 4th.

My prediction: Billy McMullen, Virginia.

S: The Cardinals are higher on their CB depth than many of the fans are. I happen to agree with the Cardinals on this one. David Barrett is poised and ready to have a breakout year at RCB. Reynaldo Hill's contributions are vastly under-rated. Hill has excellent knowledge and instincts and has performed well in a variety of roles, even as a spot starter. Then there are the two forgotten men: Coby Rhinehart and Michael Stone. Rhinehart has made a full recovery from major knee surgery and last year as a nickle perimeter corner was quietly efficient for most of the year. He faded a little down the stretch, but he is a lot better than what the fans give him credit for. And now that Michael Stone has been around the block a couple of times, look for him to emerge as a bona fide playmaker this year. With the fifth pick in the draft, I believe the Cardinals will look to bolster their safety and special teams depth with one of the unsung heros of the Ohio State defense.

My prediction: Donnie Nickey.

The first pick of the sixth round will be a very interesting pick for the Cardinals. This is going to be a Jerry Sullivan's wild card selection. My prediction: WR Carl Morris of Harvard.

Selection 6B: OLB Shawn Price, NC State. The Cardinals love these NC State playmakers. Price needs to add some size and strength, but he's an instictive pass rusher.

Selection 7: FB/HB Chris Davis, Syracuse. Big, fast power back who also possesses good hands. Could be a short yardage and special teams gem.



So here's the recap:

1 DT Dewayne Robertson (6-3,308,5.15) Kentucky

2 DE Chris Kelsay (6-4,270,4.71) Nebraska

3 DE Tully Banta-Cain (6-2,255,4.79) California

4 WR Billy McMullen (6-4,208,4.58) Virginia

5 SS Donnie Nickey (6-2,212,4.54) Ohio St.

6A WR Carl Morris (6-2,210,4.63) Harvard

6B OLB Shawn Price (6-1,223,4.65) NC State

7 RB Chris Davis (5-11,232,4.55) Syracuse

 

[Cardiac]

I take it then Walter you are in favor of the "saturation" philosophy in this draft. As your plan unfolds their is little doubt that the D-line concerns will be put to rest, I for one can't argue with this strategy.

I do have a couple of questions/concerns however.

What would be the Cards depth chart on the D-line be with all of these new players drafted. Some quick math would indicate that the Cards would have to cut Wakefield and Moore (sp). Since Wakefield was just resigned to a 2 year deal will the Cards draft him off the team? It would also mean that Dwyer will be cut (practice squad ?) and Bell might also be gone. The only concern I have with these cuts is that we might be losing future quality starters.

I agree with alot of your comments about the CB's but Hill and Rhinehart are not suited for the #3 position. Stone has done nothing to show he will even survive the roster cuts this year. However, I do hope you are correct in your observations. I also agree that a true pass rush will help our entire secondary tremendously.

I for one also agree with your take on the WR position and hope this is the Cards philosophy as well.

Thanks for the input as one may deduce from my initial post I'm not sold on any one draft strategy this year.

 

[stlouiecard]

Saturation is not in the Cards

I think that this newly yet oldly formed front office is finally realizing that there is a serious PR problem with this organization and that the only way to fix this is to sign/draft known names and put a winner on the field. I mean, fans aren't stupid, and the only way to start putting butts in the seats is to fix this ever-lasting problem.

So I think that the Cards will still make more FA moves and will pick what is known in the Draft.

1. I think the unpredictable unprecedented trade will occur and the Cards will move up to take Terrell Suggs simply because he is the best DE to ever play NCAA football and he is from Arizona and would love to play for the Cards.

2. I think the Cards will address their QB spot again with either Chris Simms or if Kyle Boller is still there he will definitely be the choice.

3. I think that WR is going to be chosen at three and I think that the Cards will pick Justin Gage here if he is still here....

4.5. 6. 7. and whatever else we have is as good a guess as anyones simply because no one knows who will be left. I would think that the Cards will pick from championship teams with these picks simply because these players know how to win.

Don't rule out a blockbuster deal with either Jacksonville or Houston. Both need a RB and when last I checked we have them. I also wonder if Tony Brackens is still a possibility. I haven't followed that situation in Jacksonville so if someone could shed some light on him it would be greatly appreciated.

 

[MadRob]

Does it not scare anyone that Jason Starkey could be the Center this year??? There always is a good center in round two or three, and I hope they go after one...

 

[Cardiac]

Originally posted by MadRob
Does it not scare anyone that Jason Starkey could be the Center this year??? There always is a good center in round two or three, and I hope they go after one...

Garcia is penciled in as the starter and with Roundtree and Spikes has OG depth then Dishman may also be in the mix for C. So while a draft pick such as Faine or Johnson would be nice they are far from necessary.

 

[Cardiac]

Re: Saturation is not in the Cards

Originally posted by stlouiecard
I think that this newly yet oldly formed front office is finally realizing that there is a serious PR problem with this organization and that the only way to fix this is to sign/draft known names and put a winner on the field. I mean, fans aren't stupid, and the only way to start putting butts in the seats is to fix this ever-lasting problem.

So I think that the Cards will still make more FA moves and will pick what is known in the Draft.

1. I think the unpredictable unprecedented trade will occur and the Cards will move up to take Terrell Suggs simply because he is the best DE to ever play NCAA football and he is from Arizona and would love to play for the Cards.

2. I think the Cards will address their QB spot again with either Chris Simms or if Kyle Boller is still there he will definitely be the choice.

3. I think that WR is going to be chosen at three and I think that the Cards will pick Justin Gage here if he is still here....

4.5. 6. 7. and whatever else we have is as good a guess as anyones simply because no one knows who will be left. I would think that the Cards will pick from championship teams with these picks simply because these players know how to win.

Don't rule out a blockbuster deal with either Jacksonville or Houston. Both need a RB and when last I checked we have them. I also wonder if Tony Brackens is still a possibility. I haven't followed that situation in Jacksonville so if someone could shed some light on him it would be greatly appreciated.

Unless the "blockbuster" RB trade is with Houston (our 1st and TJ for their 1st) then I don't like the idea of trading up. Plus I really don't see them setteling for that.

At the 6th pick the Cards are sitting pretty since one of the following players will have to fall to them:

Suggs - possibly still there
Robertson - very possible
Newman - possible
Leftwich - possible
Kennedy - very possible
Johnson - very possible
Trufant - extremely possible
Palmer - unlikely still available

Yes the pass rush needs to be addressed but there will be some good to great prospects in later rounds. White or Redding may be available in rd 2. Calvin Pace and Tully Banta-Cain in rd 3. Antwan Peek in rd 3 or 4. Some of these players may just be pass rush specialist but truly that's all we need.

I also don't want us to trade future draft picks to move up since next years draft will also be very important to hopefully finalizing the needs of our team.

 

[BuckeyeCardinal]

Nickey

Watching a particular player over and over gives you some idea of where this person should or could go in the draft.

With our needs for wide receivers I've asked many on this board about Wade from Arizona and consensus is that he'll be around in round 5 and anything higher than that is a stretch.

"bolster their safety and special teams depth with one of the unsung heros of the Ohio State defense."

Nickey would be a decent special teams player.....but I don't think he's necessarily worthy of a 5th round pick.....I think if you really wanted him you could wait at least until the 6th.....he's not the greatest on pass defense....and in our division that's really important.

I love my Buckeyes....I've just watched Nickey maybe too much....he has improved....but he can still get beat in the passing game.

 

[JeffGollin]

The Cards have, to my knowledge, ever shared their drafting philosophy with the public.

But I do know that one common drafting philosophy -

1. Determines team needs by position.

2. Develops a pool of prospects among those positions of need.

3. Ranks players within that pool - to establish a draft board.

4. Establishes a "value" for each player (i.e. High 1st, Medium 1st, Medium 3rd, Late 4th etc.)

5. Re-creates a new board after every Cardinal selection based on (a) who they selected and (b) who's left.

6. It then becomes a matter of picking the highest player on your board each time your turn comes up. Or - if the value of the top player(s) on your new board seems a bit "overpriced" - attempt to trade down.

So what you wind up is a modified "best player available" approach with various roster holes to be filled factored in - coupled with an assessment of whether you're getting value for the player at the level he would be picked.

Stronger teams sometimes have the luxury of throwing this philosophy out the window and basing their boards on "drafting to the strength of the draft" - loading up at players at a particular position (because there are plenty of quality players there and "because they can.")

The Cards are not one of those "stronger teams" yet, and can be expected to go the "Best Player Among a Half Dozen Positions"scenario.