The Changing West

[JCSunsfan]

If Peja goes East, which is looking how it might go, then the West has broken wide open this summer.

The Lakers no longer look invicible. They will be good with Kobe. But there is a rebuilding operation going on in LA around Kobe. Shaq is goine, so is Payton. Malone is as good as gone. The Clippers would have been a better team with Kobe than the Lakers are.

Peja's loss would be huge for Sacramento. Even if they get Artest etc, they will NOT be as good. If I was the Maloof's, I would say "Sorry Peja, you are staying here." If he goes, Sacramento drops significantly.

The loss of Nash really hurt Dallas.

Denver has improved in a huge way.

New Orleans is now in the West.

The Suns are better.

McGrady is in Houston (that seems ages ago now, doesn't it?)

The end of the year rankings are going to look alot different. To me, the dominant teams in the West will be San Antonio, Houston, and Denver.

 

[Yuma]

We will be battling the Lakers for a playoff spot. Everyone talks about how wide open the West is, but then say the Lakers are out of it, though. The only way I see the Lakers totally tanking, is if Kobe is in prison. This season is about parity. Dog eat dog! Let the games begin!

 

[George O'Brien]

San Antonio will be the best team, but they have no depth on the inside. Minnesota should be good, but they are relying on a number of aging players. Ostertag is not as good as Divac and their chemistry may not be there, but they should still be good.

After that, there are at least 9 other teams with the ability to make the playoffs:

Dallas
Denver
Houston
Lakers
Memphis
New Orleans
Phoenix
Portland
Utah

The final results will be driven by injuries and the development of young players. The Suns could finish as high as 4th and as low as 12th depending on how wel the mesh.

 

[NJYAJ09]

San Antonio will be the best team, but they have no depth on the inside. Minnesota should be good, but they are relying on a number of aging players. Ostertag is not as good as Divac and their chemistry may not be there, but they should still be good.

After that, there are at least 9 other teams with the ability to make the playoffs:

Dallas
Denver
Houston
Lakers
Memphis
New Orleans
Phoenix
Portland
Utah

The final results will be driven by injuries and the development of young players. The Suns could finish as high as 4th and as low as 12th depending on how wel the mesh.

IMO, we are better then memphis, portland, and utah.

My guess? 6th.

 

[elindholm]

Here's my current stab in the dark for the West playoff seeds:

1. San Antonio: salivating now that O'Neal is out of the way
2. Minnesota: in the regular season, they can survive a serious injury to anyone except Garnett
3. Memphis: they're young, they've stayed basically intact this summer, and they will always be well prepared -- something other teams can't claim
4. Sacramento: Webber won't be great but will still be good, Bibby is their best player anyway, and the supporting cast is very strong
5. Dallas: Nowitzki will have to elevate his game and they'll need Howard and Daniels to play bigger roles, but that can all happen
6. Denver: Camby will get hurt, but they still have a lot of weapons and a lot of enthusiasm
7. Houston: hardly a championship contender, but centers are still worth something, and their chemistry can't be any worse than last year
8. Phoenix: probably just squeaks in, with a very good offense barely making up for the conference's worst defense

Missing the cut:
The Lakers have too many problems up front. Divac can still play, but he's hardly the guy to anchor your interior defense.
Utah will have a hard time recapturing last year's magic, especially with the roster changes and the fact that Okur sucks.
Portland's offense has a bunch of finishers and no facilitators.
The Hornets were above average in the East, but now all the competition is tougher, plus Mashburn's career is in trouble.

 

[Errntknght]

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad Utah got Okur, not us, but I don't think he can drag the Jazz down all by himself. After all, he's an upgrade on Ostertag on the offensive end and Sloan will probably figure out how to minimize the damage he does on defense. Collins is a passable backup and Borchardt wasn't too bad when he was healthy, which he seems to be now.

They also added Boozer who probably won't be a star out west but Sloan will find some good use for him. Kirilenko is so flexible that I could see them making quite a good tandem at the forward slots. I don't recall what injury took Matt Harpring down last year but presumeably he'll be back this year... if he's back at full health I'd expect Utah to be considerably better than last year.

Arroyo and Lopez are both back at PG and Giricek at SG. Harpring can swing to SG if need be. They drafted 6'6 G Kirk Snyder, who from reports seems to by the kind of heady player that Sloan likes.

I just don't see major problems with this roster... I think they retained everyone they wanted - they shipped Pavlovic and let 'Tag' go and their other FA's, Googs and Mikki Moore, wouldn't be major losses if they went elsewhere.

It's a very young team so I don't think they'll go deep in playoffs but I expect them to make the playoffs quite handily. Frankly, I think the Suns are much less likely to make the playoffs than are the Jazz.

 

[elindholm]

Frankly, I think the Suns are much less likely to make the playoffs than are the Jazz.

Could well be. My feeling about Utah isn't based on their roster as much as on my belief that they overachieved last year. Several bubble teams in the West have mainly gotten better this summer, and Utah won't win "the games they're supposed to" as regularly.

We'll just have to see.

 

[Yuma]

Frankly, I think the Suns are much less likely to make the playoffs than are the Jazz.

Could well be. My feeling about Utah isn't based on their roster as much as on my belief that they overachieved last year. Several bubble teams in the West have mainly gotten better this summer, and Utah won't win "the games they're supposed to" as regularly.

We'll just have to see.

One thing about Utah, they have better coaching than us. That was apparent last year when they overachieved with the talent they had. I saw them at AWA, and they whipped our butts! Kinda like Spain versus the USA. Utah just plays better as a team. I have to grudgingly give Sloan a LOT of props.

 

[Joe Mama]

One thing about Utah, they have better coaching than us. That was apparent last year when they overachieved with the talent they had. I saw them at AWA, and they whipped our butts! Kinda like Spain versus the USA. Utah just plays better as a team. I have to grudgingly give Sloan a LOT of props.

It was Italy not Spain.

I agree regarding Utah. I think that barring serious injury problems San Antonio, Minnesota, and Sacramento are locks for the playoffs. I would probably throw Denver into that group as well. That leaves 4 playoff spots for the following teams.

Utah
Memphis
Houston
Phoenix
Portland
LA Lakers
New Orleans
Dallas

If the Suns can get a serviceable big man like Corie Blount or Kevin Willis I think they will barely squeeze into the playoffs. At least I hope so. I think Utah and Houston will be in along with either Dallas or the Lakers.

I think Dallas has probably dropped off as much as any team this off-season. Everybody keeps pointing out the loss of Steve Nash, but possibly more importantly they've lost most of their frontcourt depth this summer. They have lost Steve Nash, Antwawn Jamison, and Antoine Walker and replaced them with Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, Alan Henderson, and Christian Laettner. I think the Calvin Booth trade was the only good move they've made, and that was hardly something to brag about.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

I think Dallas is the team most likely to drop, although I expect they are far from done trading.

Houston looks very vulnerable to me. The have easily the worst PG's in the NBA and little depth. Last season they got by with defense, but the two guys they got in the trade are not great defenders.

On paper Denvers looks stronger. But I'm not sure whether the super hot team of early last season or the slumping team that almost missed the playoffs is the real Nuggets. They will rise or fall based on how well Andre Miller plays.

New Orleans will have a very difficult time making the playoffs. Their offense is too much based on the oft injured Baron Davis and they don't look any stronger this season after fading late last season.

 

[Yuma]

It was Italy not Spain.

I agree regarding Utah. I think that barring serious injury problems San Antonio, Minnesota, and Sacramento are locks for the playoffs. I would probably throw Denver into that group as well. That leaves 4 playoff spots for the following teams.

Utah
Memphis
Houston
Phoenix
Portland
LA Lakers
New Orleans
Dallas

If the Suns can get a serviceable big man like Corie Blount or Kevin Willis I think they will barely squeeze into the playoffs. At least I hope so. I think Utah and Houston will be in along with either Dallas or the Lakers.

I think Dallas has probably dropped off as much as any team this off-season. Everybody keeps pointing out the loss of Steve Nash, but possibly more importantly they've lost most of their frontcourt depth this summer. They have lost Steve Nash, Antwawn Jamison, and Antoine Walker and replaced them with Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, Alan Henderson, and Christian Laettner. I think the Calvin Booth trade was the only good move they've made, and that was hardly something to brag about.

Joe Mama

Italy, Spain, it hardly matters when you play THAT bad for a team like that to beat team USA!

Dallas has 15 feet of ineptitude at center in Bradley and Podolskine! This off season has got to be KILLING Mark Cuban. I thought we were unprepared. We actually look like we know what we are doing compared to Dallas.

I also think a Willis, Blount, etc., would be enough for us. I like Willis. All we need is 20 minutes a game of defense. The guy could give us minutes at the end of the half, and end of the game, when we need stops. That would be enough coupled with our firepower!

 

[devilalum]

San Antonio, Minnesota and Sac. are locks but I wouldn't say they are locks for the top 4. Every year somebody unexpectedly rises and others unexpectedly fall.

IMO the Suns are as good as any of the rest. The biggest problem the Suns had last year was depth. They just added 2 really solid players and lost nothing. Amare missed a big chunk of last year. If he asserts himself like he should the Suns could be as high as 4 or 5.

If Amare continues to develop at his current rate he will average something like 23 points, 12 rebounds and 2.2 blocks, which would make him one the top 2 or 3 PF's in the league.

The Suns also have a top 3 PG (this is HUGE) a top 8 SF and 2 high quality SG's.

The Suns are one of the 3 most improved teams in the league.

 

[NugzFan]

San Antonio, Minnesota and Sac. are locks but I wouldn't say they are locks for the top 4. Every year somebody unexpectedly rises and others unexpectedly fall.

IMO the Suns are as good as any of the rest. The biggest problem the Suns had last year was depth. They just added 2 really solid players and lost nothing. Amare missed a big chunk of last year. If he asserts himself like he should the Suns could be as high as 4 or 5.

If Amare continues to develop at his current rate he will average something like 23 points, 12 rebounds and 2.2 blocks, which would make him one the top 2 or 3 PF's in the league.

The Suns also have a top 3 PG (this is HUGE) a top 8 SF and 2 high quality SG's.

The Suns are one of the 3 most improved teams in the league.

amare top 2 PF? nash top 3 PG? dunno about those rankings. LOTS of quality at both those positions. and no, im not saying kmart is better than amare or dre is better than nash.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I think that Amare could easily put up superstar like numbers this season, but I don't think it will make him a top 1 or 2 PF. (Especially since Duncan and KG are the two to beat out for those spots....)

Amare should be in the top 10 big man stats wise. For some reason I just don't feel comftorable calling him a top player though.


Anyways, why does everyone seem to think Sac is a lock? In my opinion, they may have dropped off more than Dallas did. They lost Divac, who the offense ran through most plays. Webber has to prove he can still move (which I have my doubts after watching Penny so much).

Peja is either coming back very unhappy, or being moved for a player of less quality (no way you can get back equal talent at his salary).

That leaves Brad Miller and Mike Bibby as the two mainstays. Plus Bobby Jackson off the bench. Weren't there rumors that Christie could be moved as well?


I really think Sac will take a big dip this year. Dallas lost a lot talent wise, but at least they are not grumbling there. It seems like no one is happy in Sac anymore.

 

[devilalum]

amare top 2 PF? nash top 3 PG? dunno about those rankings. LOTS of quality at both those positions. and no, im not saying kmart is better than amare or dre is better than nash.

I said Amare could be top 2 or 3 this year, not IS top 2 or 3 now and name 3 PG's that are better TEAM PG's than Nash.

Evaluating any player is subjective but especially so with PG. Stats alone don't tell the story. A good PG makes everybody else better.

The Suns wanted Nash bad for this reason. That is why they pulled out all the stops to get him.

IMO the Suns were a really good PG from being playoff contenders last year. Now they have a healthy Amare, Q and several more young supporting players that are a year older and wiser.

I'm really up for this season.

I don't think you can argue that the SUns have improved their team more than your Nuggets have this off season. I guess we'll have to wait for the games to find out if they've caught up or not.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I don't think you can argue that the SUns have improved their team more than your Nuggets have this off season. I guess we'll have to wait for the games to find out if they've caught up or not.

Well, considering they finished like 6 seeds higher than us, I would hope we improved more.

 

[NJYAJ09]

We improved more but, denver is still a better team. They have a really nice core. If they get a solid SG watch out!

 

[JCSunsfan]

If Peja leaves Sacramento, they drop significantly--6-8 seed IMO. Divac provided vet leadership for that team, and Peja gives them consistent scoring. Plus, the team actually played WORSE with Webber.

I am beginning to believe that Webber is a cancer on and off the court that will destroy that team.


Eric, I think Utah is better than you think. They have a home court advantage like Denver (altitude) that makes it difficult for visiting teams to adjust. But the real factor is coaching. The job Sloan did last year (while his wife was dying of cancer) was the stuff legends are made of.

I am not so sure that Okur is that bad. After all, Brown thinks Amare is a 12th man backup center on the Olympic squad.

 

[NugzFan]

I said Amare could be top 2 or 3 this year, not IS top 2 or 3 now and name 3 PG's that are better TEAM PG's than Nash.

well now you added the word team...but kidd/parker/cassell are 3 better than nash at this point. probably a few others but you asked for 3.

Evaluating any player is subjective but especially so with PG. Stats alone don't tell the story. A good PG makes everybody else better.

i agree.

The Suns wanted Nash bad for this reason. That is why they pulled out all the stops to get him.

well that doesnt really change the discussion.

I don't think you can argue that the SUns have improved their team more than your Nuggets have this off season. I guess we'll have to wait for the games to find out if they've caught up or not.

never said we did nor did we have to. and if you count improvement as # of wins increased, there is NO WAY we beat you. its impossible. we were the best last year at it (improving # of wins) because we started so low. its always easier to go from say 20 to 30 wins, than it is to go from 50 to 60.

you guys and probably orlando will have the biggest increase in win total this year.

 

[NugzFan]

We improved more but, denver is still a better team. They have a really nice core. If they get a solid SG watch out!

thanks but im really starting to think we are getting overrated. strange to say but i see us at 3-5th seeds quite a bit which is crazy talk. im hoping 6-7 seed...maybe 45-47 wins (up from 43 last year). thats a good step forward in the right direction.

 

[devilalum]

well now you added the word team...but kidd/parker/cassell are 3 better than nash at this point. probably a few others but you asked for 3.

Parker's overated. I'd like to see him without Merlin.

There's a reason why Sam's played for like 12 teams.

Kidd just had microfracture surgery. I don't think anybody has ever come back from this. I can't believe more people haven't discussed this.

One of these guys MIGHT be better but I'm still sticking with my top 3 assessment.

And I added TEAM because players like Anti-Franchise and Marbury are just masquerading as point guards.

 

[elindholm]

I am not so sure that Okur is that bad. After all, Brown thinks Amare is a 12th man backup center on the Olympic squad.

These are both potentially valid points, but damned if I can figure out what one has to do with the other.

 

[Joe Mama]

Amare Stoudemire may be the 12th player on the US Olympic team, but that's probably because his style at this point doesn't translate well into the international game. I've read somewhere that Bill Walton was talking about him looking very good in the practices.

Tony Parker is not better than Steve Nash right now. He is younger, but he's not better. And I still don't think that Marbury is masquerading as a point guard. He is simply a different kind of point guard, but his abilities to create and distribute are definitely those of a point guard. He's just not the kind of point guard this team needed with Amare Stoudemire and JJ.

Joe Mama

 

[devilalum]

And I still don't think that Marbury is masquerading as a point guard. He is simply a different kind of point guard, but his abilities to create and distribute are definitely those of a point guard. He's just not the kind of point guard this team needed with Amare Stoudemire and JJ.

Joe Mama

He doesn't have the mentality of a point guard. His main goal never seems to be getting his teammates involved. He is an exciting player but he doesn't make his teammates better.

IMHO

 

[JCSunsfan]

I am not so sure that Okur is that bad. After all, Brown thinks Amare is a 12th man backup center on the Olympic squad.

These are both potentially valid points, but damned if I can figure out what one has to do with the other.

Sorry, I did not mean to be obscure. Okur got few minutes in Detroit after Sheed arrived, leaving many to conclude that Okur was not really that good of a player after all. Brown is the coach who doled out the minutes. His evaluation of Amare might lead us to conclude that his evaluation of Okur is of similar quality.