The Christian Kirk Quandary (aka Ant-Man Problems)

[speedy]

Perhaps Kyler reading defenses, progressing through more reads, seeing more of the field, and feeling more comfortable (or speaking up) about what kliff is doing, is why Kirk is finally showing up (big).

Kirk began on this team in 2018, so….

 

[BritCard]

Based on the production alone, Kirk comes back. WR's at his level are paid pretty small amounts.

For example:
The average WR in the NFL according to Spotrac makes 2.6 million. What does Kirk make this year? 2.43 million.

Emmanuel Sanders & AJ Green are both making 6mm and both (IMO) are more proven players.
Sammy Watkins: 5 million
DJax: 4.5 million

I think Kirk will be in there somewhere (at best). ESPECIALLY since so many WR's took one year prove it deals last year due to the tightening of the cap. This should really help us sign our guys as there will be a larger than normal amount of players on the market.

Possible FA's right now: Davante, Juju, ARob, Fuller, Godwin, Hilton, Green, Kirk, Watkins, DJax, Crowder, Sanders, Mike Williams, etc.

On the other hand..... Spotrac does rank Kirk as the #10 value at the WR position this year. So it may go sideways if we aren't proactive with him.

Kirk isn't 25 yet. He's going to get at least Curtis Samuel money.

 

[SoonerLou]

Kirk isn't 25 yet. He's going to get at least Curtis Samuel money.

Im just glad this team didnt overpay for Samuel. He's injury prone and not a true deep threat.

Turns out Kirk can be when used in the slot. The key is which team is going to pay that kind of money for him.

 

[Chopper0080]

That's precisely why I love Drake London of USC. he's no amazing player not even close to what Green was in college but he's a big strong WR who can box guys out and get the ball in the air. If Green prices himself out London would be a nice replacement although I fear he's going to play himself into the first 2 rounds and I don't see us taking WR there I think we have needs at CB, Edge, DT and OL before another WR.

Agree on the fit here. He is an AJ Green style player that we don't otherwise have.

This is where Keim can redeem himself IMO. It is tough drafting players for systems and QBs that are frequently changing not to mention for coaches with different preferences and approaches with rookies. You can argue that he finally is seeing what type of players work for Kyler, Vance and Kliff which should make the scout's jobs easier and the draft board clearer.

 

[Chopper0080]

Based on the production alone, Kirk comes back. WR's at his level are paid pretty small amounts.

For example:
The average WR in the NFL according to Spotrac makes 2.6 million. What does Kirk make this year? 2.43 million.

Emmanuel Sanders & AJ Green are both making 6mm and both (IMO) are more proven players.
Sammy Watkins: 5 million
DJax: 4.5 million

I think Kirk will be in there somewhere (at best). ESPECIALLY since so many WR's took one year prove it deals last year due to the tightening of the cap. This should really help us sign our guys as there will be a larger than normal amount of players on the market.

Possible FA's right now: Davante, Juju, ARob, Fuller, Godwin, Hilton, Green, Kirk, Watkins, DJax, Crowder, Sanders, Mike Williams, etc.

On the other hand..... Spotrac does rank Kirk as the #10 value at the WR position this year. So it may go sideways if we aren't proactive with him.

The age factor is something I feel you are undervaluing in terms of contract negotiations. Kirk is 5 years or so younger than a lot of the names you are referencing. Right now I would argue he slots behind Davante, ARob, Mike, and Godwin so that puts him around the 5th best FA WR.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The age factor is something I feel you are undervaluing in terms of contract negotiations. Kirk is 5 years or so younger than a lot of the names you are referencing. Right now I would argue he slots behind Davante, ARob, Mike, and Godwin so that puts him around the 5th best FA WR.

But I think there’s a much greater gap in talent between the fourth you listed and Kirk.

 

[Chopper0080]

But I think there’s a much greater gap in talent between the fourth you listed and Kirk.

I agree with that and 9 mil will probably be the top end of what he probably gets offered. I just don't know that we will go there. Some similarities to the Reddick situation last year tbh.

It will also be interesting to see what Kirk gets vs what JuJu gets offered, especially after the injury, since they are similar players.

 

[Chopper0080]

Where AZ will need to make a decision is how they difference between Kirk and Adam Humphries, JuJu, and Jamison Crowder. Those are stylistically similar players with similar usage and kind of close in age.

To my original list, Cortland Sutton probably rates higher as a FA than Kirk.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Kirk isn't 25 yet. He's going to get at least Curtis Samuel money.

I think that's crazy talk. That's a 3 year 34 million dollar deal. Of course his first year cap hit is 3.7mm and his cap hit next year is 12.9mm. If you think Kirk will ever have a cap hit of 12.9mm in his next contract I have some land that my friends would like to sell you.

Some of that is funny money (of course) but if Kirk gets 23 million guaranteed like Samuel did, I would be SHOCKED. And honestly...... I think your dead wrong.

Age factor does matter but ONLY if you are paying for that production now. Kirk is in his 4th year and is still the same on the depth chart as he was the previous 3 years. Kirk is more likely to finally be something at the end of the next contract than he is to become something at the beginning of next year.

My hope:
Let Kirk walk unless he comes cheap (3 to 4mm). And go get Michael Gallup (also a FA). That's my hope for our #2 outside WR long term.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I'm telling you guys....... There are A TON of good FA WR's this offseason. Giving Kirk a Samuel sized contract is LUNACY.

 

[Chopper0080]

I'm telling you guys....... There are A TON of good FA WR's this offseason. Giving Kirk a Samuel sized contract is LUNACY.

Christian Kirk is on pace for 962.2 yards and 6.8 TDs at 25 years (his age when he fits FA). One year older than Samuel was last year and a better season (if he hits his projection this year) than Samuel ever had and almost better production than Samuel had every season. Not that crazy.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Christian Kirk is on pace for 962.2 yards and 6.8 TDs at 25 years (his age when he fits FA). One year older than Samuel was last year and a better season (if he hits his projection this year) than Samuel ever had and almost better production than Samuel had every season. Not that crazy.

Supply and demand.

Golladay, Fuller, Samuel, Green, and not much else left to choose from last year. Plus..... Samuel was a huge name player on the market. Many teams were clamoring for him. I just don't see the same storylines this offseason. I could be wrong, I guess.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Supply and demand.

Golladay, Fuller, Samuel, Green, and not much else left to choose from last year. Plus..... Samuel was a huge name player on the market. Many teams were clamoring for him. I just don't see the same storylines this offseason. I could be wrong, I guess.

Most of the top guys will be gone, but yeah per Spotrac.com it's a damn good group of WRs.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I agree with that and 9 mil will probably be the top end of what he probably gets offered. I just don't know that we will go there. Some similarities to the Reddick situation last year tbh.

It will also be interesting to see what Kirk gets vs what JuJu gets offered, especially after the injury, since they are similar players.

Juju is bigger name and has better resume-ish but I think Kirk puts up a fair season and the injury to juju looms large.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Where AZ will need to make a decision is how they difference between Kirk and Adam Humphries, JuJu, and Jamison Crowder. Those are stylistically similar players with similar usage and kind of close in age.

To my original list, Cortland Sutton probably rates higher as a FA than Kirk.

I think those are fair comps.

 

[GatorAZ]

I'm convinced Moore can already play #2 receiver. His technical skills are sufficient, even as a rook. Kirk is the slot guy not Moore. Kirk imo doesn't have the technical proficiency as Moore
even though he's a rookie. I've been kind of down on Kirk since he got here, I just don't see anything there man. IMO he's easily replaceable.

Kirk is an elite route runner and he’s always open. In three years I can recall him dropping two point blanks passes. What hurts him considering his body size/explosiveness is his lack of YAC ability. You see it on punt returns. Something shuts off in his brain when he has the ball. If he were 25% better in that regard he’d be worth the money. Even as a Kirk Stan he’s replaceable.

 

[Shane]

I think that's crazy talk. That's a 3 year 34 million dollar deal. Of course his first year cap hit is 3.7mm and his cap hit next year is 12.9mm. If you think Kirk will ever have a cap hit of 12.9mm in his next contract I have some land that my friends would like to sell you.

Some of that is funny money (of course) but if Kirk gets 23 million guaranteed like Samuel did, I would be SHOCKED. And honestly...... I think your dead wrong.

Age factor does matter but ONLY if you are paying for that production now. Kirk is in his 4th year and is still the same on the depth chart as he was the previous 3 years. Kirk is more likely to finally be something at the end of the next contract than he is to become something at the beginning of next year.

My hope:
Let Kirk walk unless he comes cheap (3 to 4mm). And go get Michael Gallup (also a FA). That's my hope for our #2 outside WR long term.

Kirk has better stats then Samuel.... in the same amount of years a full yard higher average YPC.... same amount of TDs and more career receiving ypc. As well as overall yards. Why are you so adamant he can’t at least match that?

 

[BritCard]

I think that's crazy talk. That's a 3 year 34 million dollar deal. Of course his first year cap hit is 3.7mm and his cap hit next year is 12.9mm. If you think Kirk will ever have a cap hit of 12.9mm in his next contract I have some land that my friends would like to sell you.

Some of that is funny money (of course) but if Kirk gets 23 million guaranteed like Samuel did, I would be SHOCKED. And honestly...... I think your dead wrong.

Age factor does matter but ONLY if you are paying for that production now. Kirk is in his 4th year and is still the same on the depth chart as he was the previous 3 years. Kirk is more likely to finally be something at the end of the next contract than he is to become something at the beginning of next year.

My hope:
Let Kirk walk unless he comes cheap (3 to 4mm). And go get Michael Gallup (also a FA). That's my hope for our #2 outside WR long term.

That's nuts.

When Curtis Samuel signed for $11m per this off season half this board was like "Man we could have had Samuel for $11m and instead we got AJ Green for $6m". And that was in a down cap year.

By the end of this year Kirk will have stats over 4 years better than Samuels and more yards this year than Samuel had in year 4. The cap is going to go up at least $20m next year, maybe $25m.

Kirk will easily get at least $11m on the market. Likely more. $3-4m for a 25 year old WR that can play inside and out and just had somewhere around 900-1000 yards on a team that spreads the ball around is dream land.

Robert Woods signed a $16.25m per year deal last year at 28 and he's had 2 1000 yard seasons in his 7 year career at that point. Jarvis Landry is getting $15.1m and has one 1000 yard season in 3 at Cleveland.

Corey Davis is getting $12.5m per and has never crossed 1000 yards.

Tyler Boyd is getting $12m and his contract is 2 years old.

Jamison Crowder is getting paid $9m and his best ever year was 5 years ago and 847 yards

I'd bet any money you like Kirk will get at least $11m.

 

[BritCard]

Supply and demand.

Golladay, Fuller, Samuel, Green, and not much else left to choose from last year. Plus..... Samuel was a huge name player on the market. Many teams were clamoring for him. I just don't see the same storylines this offseason. I could be wrong, I guess.

What supply? Next year the only decent FA WR's likely to hit the open market will be,

Allen Robinson - He must have had enough of the Bears. Will be 29 and cost too much.
Will Fuller - No comment required
Jamison Crowder - His best year was 5 years ago and 847 yards and he's already on $9m
Ju-Ju - Coming off injury. Is going to get at least Kirk money.
Keelan Cole - Nope
Sammy Watkins - Nope
AB

Then a bunch of guys that aren;t as good as Kirk but will still get paid decent money like Zach pascal, Cedric Wilson, Tim Patrick, Zay Jones. Rashard Higgins.

I'd rather stick with Kirk who knows the scheme and gets on well with Kyler.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Supply:
Allen Robinson - Godwin - Fuller - Crowder - JuJu - AB - Watkins - Cole - Gallup - Kirk
E. Sanders - AJ Green - Mike Williams - Tim Patrick - Courtland Sutton - DJ Chark -
Tre'Quan Smith - Lazard - MVS - TY Hilton

That's 20 before we get to releases (maybe Samuel haha) or tags.

And yes.... I do get it that Kirk has better stats than Samuel. I would argue that his "offseason buzz" is not and will not be anywhere near that of Samuel. Or be as "projectable" as Samuel, Boyd and Woods were.

Who knows for sure though. Maybe he gets a nice payday. I personally think he may prove to be much cheaper than you all think.

I'll save this conversation and come back to it in the Spring. We will see what happens then.

 

[WisconsinCard]

Do you have proof?

Read next man up. It's book about following an NFL team (ravens) for an entire season. He writes a lot about the internal working through a season. They most definitely are looking at the future during a season. Great read too, thanks @kerouac9 for the recommendation.

 

[SoonerLou]

Kirk is an elite route runner and he’s always open. In three years I can recall him dropping two point blanks passes. What hurts him considering his body size/explosiveness is his lack of YAC ability. You see it on punt returns. Something shuts off in his brain when he has the ball. If he were 25% better in that regard he’d be worth the money. Even as a Kirk Stan he’s replaceable.

I use to watch games his freshman year. And it was him who was more physically impressive than Kyler. In fact I'd make the case Kirk is/was what people see in Rondale Moore. So explosive and so great at getting YAC.

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I think he's done a great job in evolving into a deep threat. He's just not the turn a 5 yard play into 50 player he was in college.