The Folly Of Keim's First Round Draft Picks

[NJCardFan]

Keim has been GM since 2013 and it's no secret his first round picks have been skitchy at best. With all the talk of a possible trade of Josh Rosen, this is what his first round legacy will look like:

2013:Jonathan Cooper,G-Complete bust but at least trading him netted us Chandler Jones.
2014: Deone Bucannon,S-Put at LB, had decent success but for the most part was underwhelming. He's about to sign with Tampa(Buc will be a Buc).
2015: DJ Humphries,T-Can't stay healthy, however, when he plays he's produced. Still here, for the time being.
2016: Robert Nkemdeche,DT-So far has been a complete bust. Some believe he will be cut this year.
2017: Hassan Reddick, LB-Has potential and could be a part of a pretty solid LB corp this year.
2018: Josh Rosen,QB-Talks of him being traded after only 1 year.

This does not instill a whole lot of confidence that he will make the right choice for this team. IMO, Quinnen Williams would complete a pretty scary defense but I'm afraid he's going to take an undersized QB at #1 and that QB is going to be less than stellar. I only feel that way because Keim's picks tend to turn to lead. What are y'all's thoughts?

 

[Phrazbit]

I'm starting to buy into Murray being a lock at this point.

My views are complicated.

First off... if Murray is their target, I don't think anyone else in the top 5 would take Murray, so trading somewhere within the top 5 should be a high priority, even if it's only for a marginal gain... might as well get a future 2nd or something and still get your guy if it seems probable.

Second... if Murray is their guy... I gotta assume that part of that is a reflection of their internal evaluation of Rosen. If they think he isn't "the guy" then cutting bait early is a wise move, get value while you can. But, it isn't exactly an endorsement of the player evaluation when you're trading a guy who you traded UP to get only a year earlier.

But most of all... holy crap, Murray had better be amazing and durable. I do think Murray has talent, if he was 6'2" then he'd be the obvious #1 pick... but he isn't, instead every time a 6'3" LB gets a solid shot on him everyone will be holding their breath to see if he gets back up.

The odds of Murray being a stud, IMO, are about as likely as Bosa being an All Pro and Rosen being better (and especially more durable) than Murray.

So, basically, we are looking at dumping whatever potential Rosen has AND whatever Bosa will be to take the biggest risk at #1 that I can ever remember.

Holy crap... Murray had better be amazing.

 

[Finito]

Keim has been GM since 2013 and it's no secret his first round picks have been skitchy at best. With all the talk of a possible trade of Josh Rosen, this is what his first round legacy will look like:

2013:Jonathan Cooper,G-Complete bust but at least trading him netted us Chandler Jones.
2014: Deone Bucannon,S-Put at LB, had decent success but for the most part was underwhelming. He's about to sign with Tampa(Buc will be a Buc).
2015: DJ Humphries,T-Can't stay healthy, however, when he plays he's produced. Still here, for the time being.
2016: Robert Nkemdeche,DT-So far has been a complete bust. Some believe he will be cut this year.
2017: Hassan Reddick, LB-Has potential and could be a part of a pretty solid LB corp this year.
2018: Josh Rosen,QB-Talks of him being traded after only 1 year.

This does not instill a whole lot of confidence that he will make the right choice for this team. IMO, Quinnen Williams would complete a pretty scary defense but I'm afraid he's going to take an undersized QB at #1 and that QB is going to be less than stellar. I only feel that way because Keim's picks tend to turn to lead. What are y'all's thoughts?

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again Cooper was thought to be the “safe” pick he was a blue chip player who was supposed to be an all pro for the next 10 years. That draft was bad look at the guys drafted right after him there even worse. Hindsight is 20/20.

I thought Bucannon was the best SS in that draft, that’s BA that made him a LB. Dasby skips town and Washington got suspended all of a sudden we had a huge hole. Buc was a good soldier gained 20lbs and played LB.

Hump has had some bad luck but when on the field he’s legit.

RK meh a swing for the fences boom or bust guy.

Reddick damn near broke my TV when this pick was made. Not a fan of this pick at all

Anybody who tries to judge Rosen off last year is crazy. Hey rookie QB here’s the worse offensive line in football oh yeah and the worst group of WR in the league good luck

 

[Mainstreet]

Without advocating any selection, if the Cardinals really want Murray, it's probably a risky move to trade down. Another team could move up and get him.

 

[DVontel]

The more I see Murray being a lock to us the less likely I think it’ll happen.

 

[AZCrazy]

Did anyone actually think that Rosen had any possibility of 'shining' last year? He wasn't even supposed to play at all.
We gave our 1st, 3rd, and 5th round picks last year to move up 5 spots to take him. Finally FINALLY taking a real QB at the top of the draft since Matt Leinart twelve years ago. We proceed to give him the worst WR, the worst OL, the worst OC, and the worst HC in football as a damn rookie, and incredibly he won a few games for us, and put us in position to win 3 or 4 more except the defense didn't hold. He's finally in position to get a team built around him, but no, some want to dump him for peanuts after all that, and give away the top freaking pick in the draft for a lesser replacement. Guys like Rodgers, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Manning win championships. Guys like Griffin, Manziel, and Vick don't. We could have Bosa, Williams, or the haul of picks a trade down would garner, but no....

If Keim is foolish enough to give away all that last year and all that this year could bring, to take the mini QB who allegedly can't draw out a play on the board, can't interview and lead cleanly, and is only questionably committed to football, then they all should be flushed immediately.

 

[cardsfanmd]

Did anyone actually think that Rosen had any possibility of 'shining' last year? He wasn't even supposed to play at all.
We gave our 1st, 3rd, and 5th round picks last year to move up 5 spots to take him. Finally FINALLY taking a real QB at the top of the draft since Matt Leinart twelve years ago. We proceed to give him the worst WR, the worst OL, the worst OC, and the worst HC in football as a damn rookie, and incredibly he won a few games for us, and put us in position to win 3 or 4 more except the defense didn't hold. He's finally in position to get a team built around him, but no, some want to dump him for peanuts after all that, and give away the top freaking pick in the draft for a lesser replacement. Guys like Rodgers, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Manning win championships. Guys like Griffin, Manziel, and Vick don't. We could have Bosa, Williams, or the haul of picks a trade down would garner, but no....

If Keim is foolish enough to give away all that last year and all that this year could bring, to take the mini QB who allegedly can't draw out a play on the board, can't interview and lead cleanly, and is only questionably committed to football, then they all should be flushed immediately.

Holy hyperbole lol.

 

[The Kraken]

First round picks are fun to review, but I would suggest we remember that for most of those picks we were a competitive playoff team and in a lot of cases we were making "luxury" picks or PBA type picks...now that we are not a playoff caliber team (yet anyway) this year's picks are crucial to addresss needs vice depth.

 

[GuernseyCard]

I'm starting to buy into Murray being a lock at this point.

My views are complicated.

First off... if Murray is their target, I don't think anyone else in the top 5 would take Murray, so trading somewhere within the top 5 should be a high priority, even if it's only for a marginal gain... might as well get a future 2nd or something and still get your guy if it seems probable.

Second... if Murray is their guy... I gotta assume that part of that is a reflection of their internal evaluation of Rosen. If they think he isn't "the guy" then cutting bait early is a wise move, get value while you can. But, it isn't exactly an endorsement of the player evaluation when you're trading a guy who you traded UP to get only a year earlier.

But most of all... holy crap, Murray had better be amazing and durable. I do think Murray has talent, if he was 6'2" then he'd be the obvious #1 pick... but he isn't, instead every time a 6'3" LB gets a solid shot on him everyone will be holding their breath to see if he gets back up.

The odds of Murray being a stud, IMO, are about as likely as Bosa being an All Pro and Rosen being better (and especially more durable) than Murray.

So, basically, we are looking at dumping whatever potential Rosen has AND whatever Bosa will be to take the biggest risk at #1 that I can ever remember.

Holy crap... Murray had better be amazing.

KISS rule.

It's BOSA.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I wonder if one of the reasons the Giants traded OBJ was to get another 1st rounder for Rosen?

He fits the typical NY QB. Big, big arm, pocket passer.

I'd do #17 and their 3rd rounder for Rosen.

Draft Murray #1, Chris Lindstrom #17. #33 N'Keal Harry.

 

[Veer]

A lot was on the OL, bad playcalling, WRs not getting open. But don't forget Rosen also missed many easy throws. He was late regularly even when he had time, threw often into coverage when somebody was wide open or just overthrew the target. Not even mentioning the hitch he got in his delivery towards the end of the season.

You can find many excuses for Rosen. He has all the arm talent in world and can make any pass possible, be it deep, medium or short, touch or bomb. His mechanics were also solid until the hitch appeared.

But what you have to evaluate right now is his mental makeup. There have been QBs before with all-world talent who didn't have the mental prowess to be perenial winners. Often those QBs were very intelligent and well spoken in real life, but not when the bullets are flying on the field. Decision making under pressure is the make or break for QBs these days. We can build a good OL in a few years, but how long would that last until you lose pieces again or injuries occur again. The real good QBs prevail all of this.

I'm tending towards giving Rosen that 2nd year and look if he can improve. But if for some reason Keim/KK evaluate Rosen and say he won't turn into a top QB, but Murray could, I'd support that decision as well.

 

[AZCrazy]

His timing was off, to be sure. I believe that to be a rookie thing more than a lack of talent. All I can say is that we should have this year to find out. We can always take another QB next year. Murray taken will only ensure we don't take another for many years to come in any case.

 

[football karma]

not to give Keim a pass

but for each of those picks, what was the obvious alternate pick at the time? Or, if you look at the next 15-20 guys picked -- how many of those became top third quality NFL starters?

by that standard -- the one 1st rounder that really stings is Reddick. You could have taken pretty much any of the next 20 players drafted and have been better off today.

 

[slanidrac16]

Without advocating any selection, if the Cardinals really want Murray, it's probably a risky move to trade down. Another team could move up and get him.

See , I look at this as a road they can choose as things unwind. If we move back to 4 ( along with the #27) Murray could still be there at 4. If somebody trades up to get Murray that means a blue chip falls to us and we stick with Rosen. We could even trade back to 6 because the Giants want Haskins and add another pick or two (17) and Murray could still be there. Now with 6,17,27 and 33 one could only imagine the possibilities.

 

[BW52]

For some reason when I see Qiuinnen Williams I think Wendell Bryant 2.0.Williams seems like a nice likeable kid but I wonder if he has the meanstreak and work ethic to get into NFL shape to be able to stay on the field instead of having to take a break every 10 plays?

 

[DVontel]

For some reason when I see Qiuinnen Williams I think Wendell Bryant 2.0.Williams seems like a nice likeable kid but I wonder if he has the meanstreak and work ethic to get into NFL shape to be able to stay on the field instead of having to take a break every 10 plays?

I mean, no one DLineman plays every literally every snap. Not Aaron Donald or Fletcher Cox. They take multiple breaks as well.

Taking a break every 10 plays while causing havoc before & after that break is fine with me.

 

[BW52]

I mean, no one DLineman plays every literally every snap. Not Aaron Donald or Fletcher Cox. They take multiple breaks as well.

Taking a break every 10 plays while causing havoc before & after that break is fine with me.

To me its looks like the kid needs to get in better shape.Maybe he gets in better shape during the season/...….. don`t know.That is what I see when I see Quinnen Williams...Wendell Bryant.Hell FWIW Refrigerator Perry never got in good shape either.LOL.

 

[Krangodnzr]

For some reason when I see Qiuinnen Williams I think Wendell Bryant 2.0.Williams seems like a nice likeable kid but I wonder if he has the meanstreak and work ethic to get into NFL shape to be able to stay on the field instead of having to take a break every 10 plays?

What stands out to me about Q Williams is that he is slippery, strong, and plays with a reckless abandon.

I never would describe Wendell Bryant that way.

 

[BW52]

What stands out to me about Q Williams is that he is slippery, strong, and plays with a reckless abandon.

I never would describe Wendell Bryant that way.

I think Bryant got paid and got lazy and soft and lost what little edge he had.

 

[BW52]

What stands out to me about Q Williams is that he is slippery, strong, and plays with a reckless abandon.

I never would describe Wendell Bryant that way.

Still rather have Bosa over Q.Williams.

 

[NJCardFan]

Anybody who tries to judge Rosen off last year is crazy. Hey rookie QB here’s the worse offensive line in football oh yeah and the worst group of WR in the league good luck

I'm not judging Rosen at all. I'm saying that if he gets traded then that's another 1st round pick failure here.

 

[SissyBoyFloyd]

Seems a lot of you miss the point on Rosen. Its not at all about his stats or play last year. Its about him being good in the eyes of others while we can get the most for him. And its about murray being the ideal fit for a new coach and high powered offense. I said it many times for weeks now and am sticking to it ..... Rosen will be a Giant next season and instead of 6 now, maybe we get 17 instead.

This is the year of big moves with many teams making huge deals and big changes.

 

[NJCardFan]

not to give Keim a pass

but for each of those picks, what was the obvious alternate pick at the time? Or, if you look at the next 15-20 guys picked -- how many of those became top third quality NFL starters?

by that standard -- the one 1st rounder that really stings is Reddick. You could have taken pretty much any of the next 20 players drafted and have been better off today.

Everyone knows the draft is a crap shoot but is there anyone or any team in history who's shot as many blanks in a short period of time as this team has? There are still 2 high quality 1st round draft picks by Graves on this team.

 

[Finito]

I'm not judging Rosen at all. I'm saying that if he gets traded then that's another 1st round pick failure here.

You can’t judge that as a failure. We are in a unique position. Say you draft Haskins/Murray this year at whatever number then next year you get the #1 pick and Tua is sitting there what do you do?

 

[NJCardFan]

You can’t judge that as a failure. We are in a unique position. Say you draft Haskins/Murray this year at whatever number then next year you get the #1 pick and Tua is sitting there what do you do?

So we keep drafting QB's like we're the Jets?