The good news, we have the #1 pick!

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Tie break from NFL:

The selection order is based on each team's win-loss record in the previous season and whether the team reached the playoffs. Teams that did not reach the playoffs the previous season are ranked in reverse order of their records (thus the team with the fewest wins is awarded the first selection). Ties between teams with identical records are determined by the following tiebreakers (in order):[59]

Strength of schedule, which is the combined win-loss record for all 16 of the team's opponents in the previous season (ties count as a half win and half loss). The team with the lower strength of schedule (i.e. their opponents compiled fewer wins) is granted the earlier pick in round one.
Record in common games against division opponents (if the teams are in the same division).
Record in common games against conference opponents (if the teams are in the same conference).
Coin flip(s), which occur(s) at the pre-draft NFL Combine.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Everyone has to keep in mind most of those other sites are taking into account percentages of teams remaining on the schedule as well as current records. Can't predict future quite yet...

 

[Zeno]

Everyone has to keep in mind most of those other sites are taking into account percentages of teams remaining on the schedule as well as current records. Can't predict future quite yet...

Which is why as it stands right now we have the #1 pick, if we win one of our last 2 of course we will slide. But do you really expect Oakland's SOS to weaken over the next 2 games? They play the Broncos, if the Broncos win the Raiders SOS improves--if the Raiders win their SOS weakens but their wins increase, last week of season they play the Chiefs, same scenario there.

The only way we don't pick first is if we win.

 

[Totally_Red]

One thing is certain! The Niners are better-coached than the Cardinals.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

One thing is certain! The Niners are better-coached than the Cardinals.

Every team in football is, and that includes college, high school, pee-wee league and the local Y...

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Which is why as it stands right now we have the #1 pick, if we win one of our last 2 of course we will slide. But do you really expect Oakland's SOS to weaken over the next 2 games? They play the Broncos, if the Broncos win the Raiders SOS improves--if the Raiders win their SOS weakens but their wins increase, last week of season they play the Chiefs, same scenario there.

The only way we don't pick first is if we win.

Yes, but it also matters what every team moving forward does (excluding common opponents).

 

[Zeno]

Yes, but it also matters what every team moving forward does (excluding common opponents).

The statistical probability of the Raiders SOS dropping .040 (from .562 to .522) in 2 weeks to get below our current SOS has to be astronomically low. If the Chiefs beat the Seahawks this week it should all but guarantee the first pick to us based on schedule strength (Oak play the Chiefs twice we play the Seahawks twice). Again a win by us negates everything but I don't see us beating the Rams or Seahawks.

 

[CFLredzoned]

I noticed last week that another site gave the Cardinals and 49ers different strength of schedule and had them ordered different. I wonder if one looks at SOS for games up to this point - and the other looks at SOS for all 16 games? That could explain the difference.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The statistical probability of the Raiders SOS dropping .040 (from .562 to .522) in 2 weeks to get below our current SOS has to be astronomically low. If the Chiefs beat the Seahawks this week it should all but guarantee the first pick to us based on schedule strength (Oak play the Chiefs twice we play the Seahawks twice). Again a win by us negates everything but I don't see us beating the Rams or Seahawks.

I agree but what if the following happened:

Every team on the raiders entire season schedule losses their last two games except the two games against the raiders.

Every team on the cardinals entire season schedule wins their last two games.

(Obviously accounting for anybodnthe above playing each other)

Couldn’t that move the entire strength of schedules .040 in the aggregate? It’s not just the cards and raiders opponents the next two weeks that account it is how all their opponents the entire season fair.

 

[Zeno]

I agree but what if the following happened:

Every team on the raiders entire season schedule losses their last two games except the two games against the raiders.

Every team on the cardinals entire season schedule wins their last two games.

(Obviously accounting for anybodnthe above playing each other)

Couldn’t that move the entire strength of schedules .040 in the aggregate? It’s not just the cards and raiders opponents the next two weeks that account it is how all their opponents the entire season fair.

The thing that makes this unlikely is the Raiders & Cardinals remaining opponents are divisional opponents--Broncos & Chiefs for them Rams & Seahawks for us, making it even more difficult for the percent to change without the Raiders beating one or both of those teams. I fully expect both the Cardinals & Raiders to lose, which would maintain both SOS by pretty much the same margin at that point.

Of the Raiders other opponents the Steelers play 1 opponent that the Raiders had (Bengals), Ravens play the Chargers & Browns (both on Raiders schedule), Browns also have 2 on the Raiders schedule (Steelers & Ravens), Bengals also 2 (Browns & Steelers)...so it isn't possible for the Raiders opponents to lose out as so many of them play each other still. The only teams that could really have any effect is the Dolphins & Colts as none of their remaining opponents are common with the Raiders.

The way it looks I really doubt we see much movement of SOS in the last 2 weeks

 

[TheCardinal]

The thing that makes this unlikely is the Raiders & Cardinals remaining opponents are divisional opponents--Broncos & Chiefs for them Rams & Seahawks for us, making it even more difficult for the percent to change without the Raiders beating one or both of those teams. I fully expect both the Cardinals & Raiders to lose, which would maintain both SOS by pretty much the same margin at that point.

Of the Raiders other opponents the Steelers play 1 opponent that the Raiders had (Bengals), Ravens play the Chargers & Browns (both on Raiders schedule), Browns also have 2 on the Raiders schedule (Steelers & Ravens), Bengals also 2 (Browns & Steelers)...so it isn't possible for the Raiders opponents to lose out as so many of them play each other still. The only teams that could really have any effect is the Dolphins & Colts as none of their remaining opponents are common with the Raiders.

The way it looks I really doubt we see much movement of SOS in the last 2 weeks

Yes, that is how I have it as well. In fact, I believe we can officially say that the Raiders have mathematically clinched the strength-of-schedule tie-breaker over us, giving the Cardinals the number one overall pick if we lose out.

As of now, our nine non-common opponents have:

ARI: 63 wins
OAK: 72 wins

Ties are half-wins. Assuming we both lose out, it gives our remaining opponents each another victory. This, plus the forced wins when teams have to play each other (win, lose, or draw, the pool picks up one total win), would bump it to:

ARI: 70 wins
OAK: 79 wins

We would have only 6 more opportunities to pick up “wins”:

SEA over KAN
GBP over NYJ
WSH over TEN
WSH over PHI
ATL over CRL
ATL over TBB

So, even if all of “our” teams win, the highest we can get to is 76, and would lose the tie-breaker even if all of Oakland’s six remaining opportunities (not shown) fail. Thus, we would earn the earlier draft position.

 

[dylanbw]

Yes, that is how I have it as well. In fact, I believe we can officially say that the Raiders have mathematically clinched the strength-of-schedule tie-breaker over us, giving the Cardinals the number one overall pick if we lose out.

As of now, our nine non-common opponents have:

ARI: 63 wins
OAK: 72 wins

Ties are half-wins. Assuming we both lose out, it gives our remaining opponents each another victory. This, plus the forced wins when teams have to play each other (win, lose, or draw, the pool picks up one total win), would bump it to:

ARI: 70 wins
OAK: 79 wins

We would have only 6 more opportunities to pick up “wins”:

SEA over KAN
GBP over NYJ
WSH over TEN
WSH over PHI
ATL over CRL
ATL over TBB

So, even if all of “our” teams win, the highest we can get to is 76, and would lose the tie-breaker even if all of Oakland’s six remaining opportunities (not shown) fail. Thus, we would earn the earlier draft position.

Now this is my kind of math! Nick Bosa here we come!!

 

[ARZCardinals]

Whatever you WANT to happen with the Cardinals....root for the other thing...as they'll always let you down.

Not sure who let me down more, the Arizona Cardinals or my ex wife


...and like I learned with my ex...when I could take no more ...I found a new and better one...and things look brighter

 

[Dr. Jones]

Head to head does not matter in draft rankings. Strength of schedule is tiebreaker.

This still baffles me...... I get it...... but think it's damn stupid.

 

[Cheesebeef]

my biggest fear with the Carolina loss is that Seattle wins this weekend and already has a playoff spot locked in place and stone and they sit their guys against us in the last game and somehow, we do what only the Cardinals can do and miraculously beat their 3rd string backups because Carrol treats it like the 4th game of the pre-season.

 

[dylanbw]

my biggest fear with the Carolina loss is that Seattle wins this weekend and already has a playoff spot locked in place and stone and they sit their guys against us in the last game and somehow, we do what only the Cardinals can do and miraculously beat their 3rd string backups because Carrol treats it like the 4th game of the pre-season.

Yeah, I was thinking about this today as well. Given how the past 40 years I have been watching this team have gone, this seems quite likely actually. Would be a nice parting “gift” from Wilks on the way out.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Yeah, I was thinking about this today as well. Given how the past 40 years I have been watching this team have gone, this seems quite likely actually. Would be a nice parting “gift” from Wilks on the way out.

we need KC to beat Seattle this week, Minnesota and Eagles to win and then have the NFL move all early games to late games in week 17 like they have the last couple seasons so all the late games have playoff implications, forcing the Seahawks to at least play starters long enough to get a insurmountable 10-0 lead that they can they sit on when it looks like there's no hope for either Minny or Philly to catch them.

 

[Stout]

my biggest fear with the Carolina loss is that Seattle wins this weekend and already has a playoff spot locked in place and stone and they sit their guys against us in the last game and somehow, we do what only the Cardinals can do and miraculously beat their 3rd string backups because Carrol treats it like the 4th game of the pre-season.

No, Seattle will need to win to make the playoffs, and on a 4th and 23 from even farther out, Rosen will drop back to pass...

 

[don7031]

Here is the draft according to the NFL. It matches Tankathon. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...rder-cardinals-no-1-broncos-packers-in-top-14

 

[Gandhi]

This still baffles me...... I get it...... but think it's damn stupid.

I actually think it makes perfect sense, Jones. The entire idea about the draft is to improve the worst teams the most, and if two teams (or more) has been bad enough to have the same record, then the team that has had the easiest schedule is, at least in theory, the worst team of the two, and thus they should pick first.

 

[Totally_Red]

we need KC to beat Seattle this week, Minnesota and Eagles to win and then have the NFL move all early games to late games in week 17 like they have the last couple seasons so all the late games have playoff implications, forcing the Seahawks to at least play starters long enough to get a insurmountable 10-0 lead that they can they sit on when it looks like there's no hope for either Minny or Philly to catch them.

3 points would be insurmountable for the Cardinals offense.

 

[WisconsinCard]

I actually think it makes perfect sense, Jones. The entire idea about the draft is to improve the worst teams the most, and if two teams (or more) has been bad enough to have the same record, then the team that has had the easiest schedule is, at least in theory, the worst team of the two, and thus they should pick first.

I agree 100%, and the it rights itself in the second round where it flips to the other team having the first pick.

 

[Stout]

I actually think it makes perfect sense, Jones. The entire idea about the draft is to improve the worst teams the most, and if two teams (or more) has been bad enough to have the same record, then the team that has had the easiest schedule is, at least in theory, the worst team of the two, and thus they should pick first.

I very much disagree. One team beating another is direct evidence of being better, record-wise, without having to rely on complicated math. Now, if 3 teams are tied, and each has beaten another, you'd have to go to another tie-breaker.

 

[Gandhi]

I very much disagree. One team beating another is direct evidence of being better, record-wise, without having to rely on complicated math. Now, if 3 teams are tied, and each has beaten another, you'd have to go to another tie-breaker.

Yes, but the basic idea with the first pick of the draft (or any other draft pick for that matter) is not to find out who are the worse of two teams. It is to find the overall worst team in the league, and thus if two teams has identical records, it doesn't matter how they have played against each other. The important thing is how they have played throughout the season, and the easier the schedule, the worse the team. The idea is that getting the top pick is to lose.

 

[vince56]

I very much disagree. One team beating another is direct evidence of being better, record-wise, without having to rely on complicated math. Now, if 3 teams are tied, and each has beaten another, you'd have to go to another tie-breaker.

By that logic, should SF have the #1 pick then because we beat them twice?