The Little Mermaid (live action reimagining)

[Yuma]

The audience retention didn't help it too much from what we are seeing now.

It's still drowning overseas. Many were claiming racism as the culprit but Black Panther killed overseas and the new Spiderman movie is crushing it also with a mainly diverse (albeit animated) cast.

I think it's going to do roughly 40% of what Beauty and the Beast pulled in IIRC.

‘Transformers: Rise of the Beasts’ Ignites to $110 Million at International Box Office, $170 Million Globally

"Transformers: Rise of the Beasts" kicked the tires at the international box office with $110 million.

variety.com

I think the rule of thumb is that you need to at least do twice your budget to break even. Am I right on that? The best this movie will hope to achieve is to get back to flat after all the marketing costs are taken into consideration.

There is the marketing aspect of these movies for the theme parks, too.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Disney, The Little Mermaid, and sex controversy like to go hand and hand. The cartoon had the hidden images in the artwork issue and now this one had a porn star in it.

Disney Accidentally Cast a Porn Star in The Little Mermaid?!

Disney accidentally cast an adult film star in the live-action version of The Little Mermaid, and now they’re declining to comment on the situation. 24-year-old Stefano Tomadini, who makes adult movies under the alias Dante Ferrari, was cast as a mermaid in the film. And yes, a quick search for...

www.piratesandprincesses.net

 

[WaywardFan]

"Accidentally"

 

[elindholm]

Of all the things to be worried about, seriously.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Yeah..... Not really interested in that. haha

Dude is just trying to make a buck anywhere he can!

 

[mjb21aztd]

Just saw few music scenes under the sea was very well done actress has a great voice!! And she is pretty cute lol in human form

Plus actor who does sebestian is awesome

ill watch full movie on netflix ps5

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

So now commenting on changes to the music (which needed no changes) has to do with race?

Do you even read what's posted or just come on the board to tag-team on replies with your brother?

Hey Brian, we are separate people. Treat us accordingly.

 

[Brian in Mesa]

Hey Brian, we are separate people. Treat us accordingly.

Well, apparently, you're better at being your own person than he is.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Going to be top 6 YTD at the box office as it stands right now I think. Probably finishes well outside of the top 10 at year's end and still hasn't made Disney any money.

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[Yuma]

Going to be top 6 YTD at the box office as it stands right now I think. Probably finishes well outside of the top 10 at year's end and still hasn't made Disney any money.

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I still think there's a marketing aspect to this that Disney looks at. I feel like if they break even, Disney is good with it as a "flop" because it advertises Disney which creates demand for the parks, merchandise, etc. You need to keep pushing content out there to keep the Disney brand in play.

 

[WaywardFan]

It's still going to lose hundreds of millions of dollars.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

It's still going to lose hundreds of millions of dollars.

It won't. It needed to make 400k globally to break even.

The film has a reported $250M budget cost and $140M global marketing spend.

 

[WaywardFan]

True, but they only get a cut of ticket sales (50-65%). General rule of thumb for breakeven for the studio is 2.5x movie cost (sometimes 3x). And some estimates place production cost at $300M. So we're talking $625-900M. But I don't think anyone actually believes either the $250M or the $140M numbers.

Disney won't break even, and will lose hundreds of millions.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

It's crazy how poor the box office is this year. My guess is Indiana Jones crashes. Oppenheimer isn't hitting this top 5. There is no big release on 4th of July weekend. Haunted Mansion doesn't seem to be a 500 million dollar movie.

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[Chris_Sanders]

True, but they only get a cut of ticket sales (50-65%). General rule of thumb for breakeven for the studio is 2.5x movie cost (sometimes 3x). And some estimates place production cost at $300M. So we're talking $625-900M. But I don't think anyone actually believes either the $250M or the $140M numbers.

Disney won't break even, and will lose hundreds of millions.

I just read an article that says it is breaking even. This won't be a loss. Is it is win though to break even? Maybe in this market. Not much is moving out there at the theater.

You are kind of in wishful thinking mode right now.

 

[WaywardFan]

I guess it depends on what their definition of breaking even is. Disney will lose money from this movie.

 

[Yuma]

It's crazy how poor the box office is this year. My guess is Indiana Jones crashes. Oppenheimer isn't hitting this top 5. There is no big release on 4th of July weekend. Haunted Mansion doesn't seem to be a 500 million dollar movie.

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Oppenheimer is a historically relevant movie, but not something that grabs interest of the general public. Only history nerds like myself want to see it, and I am sure certain depictions in the movie will vary from the accounts we have read previously. For example, I read about half the scientists were of the opinion dropping the bomb and splitting atoms would cause a world wide chain reaction that would kill everything on earth. The other half weren't certain this would happen, but felt the explosion would be way bigger than predicted. Remember, this was new tech, and we only had physics theories to go on. So when they went to Truman, they gave him these "coin flip" odds, and Truman had the balls enough to say, "let's do it." LOL! I had a history teacher that told us the same thing, too.

 

[Chaplin]

I guess it depends on what their definition of breaking even is. Disney will lose money from this movie.

Just curious what your position is to be able to make such a statement. Are you in Distribution? Or Finance?

 

[Covert Rain]

True, but they only get a cut of ticket sales (50-65%). General rule of thumb for breakeven for the studio is 2.5x movie cost (sometimes 3x). And some estimates place production cost at $300M. So we're talking $625-900M. But I don't think anyone actually believes either the $250M or the $140M numbers.

Disney won't break even, and will lose hundreds of millions.

The 2 to 2.5 number thrown out there isn't actually a real thing. It's just a way to put into perspective both budget and box office numbers in an easy way for people to digest. It's much more complicated than that and turning a profit is really specific to each movie.

Keep in mind studios also make money monetizing by selling pay-TV, eventual network tv rights and that's not counting overseas rights. There is also product, game tie ins, cross marketing sales (i.e. co-branding) and anything they may do or sell related in their amusement parks. For example, when I worked on Ang Lee's Hulk marketing project, we had a licensing agreement and if I recall some profit sharing structure that came from the Chase/Hulk co-branded credit card. During the initial promotion period you could only apply for it in the park, which drew people into the park with additional discounts.

That's all ancillary profit that isn't accounted for in the general idea behind 2 to 2.5 times box office idea to generate a profit.

 

[puckhead]

It's probably worth its own thread, but IMO there's clearly been a dramatic change in America's and the World's entertainment habits and how we consume media. We saw the devastation early on with the music industry due to being completely flat-footed against the ability to easily share digital assets over the Web. Now we're seeing cable/satellite losing their footholds to cord-cutters and streaming on-demand. Regional sports channels were the last thing keeping cable/sat relevant and their recent problems are well-documented. Big screen home theater experiences are getting cheaper and most importantly, good enough, to be an inexpensive replacement for all but the most popular feature films. Technology is the driver of most of this change even though I'll give COVID-19 the assist in pushing the accelerator.

There will always be cine-files that won't accept anything less than the big screen experience, but it seems unlikely to me that the old days of "block-busting lines around the theater" are coming back and the studios will try to hang on but ultimately they'll have no choice but to adjust to the new marketplace and invest accordingly. I'm sure some of our fellow members in the industry have thoughts on my theory from their various perspectives.

 

[Cheesebeef]

It's probably worth its own thread, but IMO there's clearly been a dramatic change in America's and the World's entertainment habits and how we consume media. We saw the devastation early on with the music industry due to being completely flat-footed against the ability to easily share digital assets over the Web. Now we're seeing cable/satellite losing their footholds to cord-cutters and streaming on-demand. Regional sports channels were the last thing keeping cable/sat relevant and their recent problems are well-documented. Big screen home theater experiences are getting cheaper and most importantly, good enough, to be an inexpensive replacement for all but the most popular feature films. Technology is the driver of most of this change even though I'll give COVID-19 the assist in pushing the accelerator.

There will always be cine-files that won't accept anything less than the big screen experience, but it seems unlikely to me that the old days of "block-busting lines around the theater" aren't coming back and the studios will try to hang on but ultimately they'll have no choice but to adjust to the new marketplace and invest accordingly. I'm sure some of our fellow members in the industry have thoughts on my theory from their various perspectives.

We’re in the death rattle of movie theaters.

 

[Dr. Jones]

We’re in the death rattle of movie theaters.

I truly hope you’re wrong. But specialization may be the key now. I desperately want IMAX and large format to work.

I’ll be seeing Oppenheimer in the largest and loudest place possible.

 

[Covert Rain]

We’re in the death rattle of movie theaters.

I think you may be right. The wife hates going to the theater now. Post Covid everyone still acts like they are in their living room and so rude. She prefers to go during the week when nobody is there if at all.

 

[Yuma]

One of the best things about people feeling like they were in their own living rooms watching a movie live, was at the end of Spderman, into the multiverse, it comes up with To Be Continued, and you could clearly here one guy yell out, "What the fudge?" Everyone in the theater started laughing because we all felt the same! LOL!

 

[WaywardFan]

One of the best things about people feeling like they were in their own living rooms watching a movie live, was at the end of Spderman, into the multiverse, it comes up with To Be Continued, and you could clearly here one guy yell out, "What the fudge?" Everyone in the theater started laughing because we all felt the same! LOL!

I haven't watched yet, but I heard the the fact it was a two-parter wasn't communicated well or at all. That'd tick people off.