The Market 2022-2023-2024

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Interesting to see if it has any impact on TSLA stock, probably not, but Musk announced late yesterday he's expiring all his loans against TSLA stock in the TWTR deal and will put up an additional 6.25 billion in equity financing to cover the amount. He didn't say how but it's assumed this is why he's been selling private shares of Space X. Also believed Larry Ellison and some others will kick in more money to help Musk raise the 6.25 billion.

Forgotten in all of the Musk/TWTR news is MSFT's bid to acquire ATVI (Activision Blizzard) for $95/share. It's trading around $77 which represents a potential 23% arbitrage opportunity without all of the Musk circus. If you remember Buffett or BRK bought ATVI prior to the deal being announced and later added to their position once the arbitrage opportunity presented itself.

Perhaps it gets negotiated lower or the deal falls through, but it seems a lot safer bet than TWTR.

I need to do more research on it.
 

Russ Smith

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Forgotten in all of the Musk/TWTR news is MSFT's bid to acquire ATVI (Activision Blizzard) for $95/share. It's trading around $77 which represents a potential 23% arbitrage opportunity without all of the Musk circus. If you remember Buffett or BRK bought ATVI prior to the deal being announced and later added to their position once the arbitrage opportunity presented itself.

Perhaps it gets negotiated lower or the deal falls through, but it seems a lot safer bet than TWTR.

I need to do more research on it.

I had ATVI for years I sold it in 2019 I think. Don't recall at what price. I think I more than doubled money it was one of the stock advisor picks for Motley Fool.
 

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And the market didn't care about this statement
When u think we just passed the turning point, it still suck as before
And it effect even our market
Today mib was + 0.26 after 1630 with wall street going down - 0.92
Can we just cut the cord one day?
 
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Russ Smith

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And the market didn't care about this statement
When u think we just passed the turning point, it still suck as before
And it effect even our market
Today mib was + 0.26 after 1630 with wall street going down - 0.92
Can we just cut the cord one day?

The funny thing is if you read Dimon's entire quote he's actually positive to an extent but they lowered a forecast.

There's even a good jobs comment from BLS they said available job openings is slightly lower in April than originally reported(surprise not) and that means it's actually a good thing as there's less labor pressure(to find labor). Overall Dimon's comments are negative but he ends with what's actually still quite positive


"Dimon said at JPMorgan’s investor day in May that there were “storm clouds” looming over the US economy, but he said he’s since updated that forecast given the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve as it attempts to rein in inflation. “Right now it’s kind of sunny, things are doing fine, everyone thinks the Fed can handle it,” Dimon said.

Shares of the company dropped 1.8% to $129.81 at 11:21 a.m. in New York after Dimon’s remarks on the economy, extending this year’s decline to 18%.

JPMorgan economists last month lowered their growth outlook for the second half of 2022 to a 2.4% rate from 3%, for the first half of 2023 to 1.5% from 2.1% and for the second half of 2023 to 1% from 1.4%. They cited falling stock prices, higher mortgage rates and a stronger dollar relative to trading partners.

Dimon said Wednesday that JPMorgan is preparing for that turbulence by being conservative with its balance sheet.

“I kind of want to shed non-operating deposits again, which we can do in size, to protect ourselves so we can serve clients in bad times,” he said. “That’s the environment we’re dealing with.”

Still, he cited the strength of the consumer, rising wages and plentiful jobs as the “bright clouds” in the economy."
 

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The funny thing is if you read Dimon's entire quote he's actually positive to an extent but they lowered a forecast.
We have major banks and the Fed/government with two different messages. I think that's the main issue. There is a MASSIVE disconnect with the message being sent and the actual significant underlying issues. Either someone's, or many someone's, are lying or we have some of the dumbest people in the highest positions of power. IMO. I personally don't think any of them are that stupid...
 

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Deflation much? Feds words not matching their charts...

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So this is the first week/month the Fed will not be buying bonds. They stopped QE in March, but were still making purchases to replace maturing bonds. Now that has also stopped and active selling of bonds on their balance sheet will start on the 15th of this month from what I have seen reported. These next 2 months will be key in my opinion.
 
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Russ Smith

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Now is when the Fed landing gets dicey IMO. The jobs stuff is actually what they want, they want hiring to slow. they don't want mass layoffs but they want to cool the jobs market some because it will cool inflation, but tough to thread the needle.

Musk(of course) announced he's cutting 10% of Tesla's staff and he's demanding everyone come back into the office. in his memo he said people who want to work from home need to be in the office in person a "minimum" of 40 hours a week. In other words I'm cutting jobs and then demanding employees work onsite at least full time and possibly OT and then also work from home. that's great for productivity and cost cutting but probably not sustainable. But his comment about that was one of the things that triggered the selloff today as people are again concerned the Fed won't be able to thread the needle and we'll see layoffs all over.
 

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Tesla drops 9% today cause of elon bad feelings about economy(who hasn't bad feeling, we listen negatives every day) and saying he want to reduce the salary of some areas that are ovestaffed, probably some managers who were enjoying their remote working, then he noted this won't apply to anyone building cars, battery packs and solar panel
Then he got a bitter answer from the genius about enjoying the moon trip
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BigRedRage

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Now is when the Fed landing gets dicey IMO. The jobs stuff is actually what they want, they want hiring to slow. they don't want mass layoffs but they want to cool the jobs market some because it will cool inflation, but tough to thread the needle.

Musk(of course) announced he's cutting 10% of Tesla's staff and he's demanding everyone come back into the office. in his memo he said people who want to work from home need to be in the office in person a "minimum" of 40 hours a week. In other words I'm cutting jobs and then demanding employees work onsite at least full time and possibly OT and then also work from home. that's great for productivity and cost cutting but probably not sustainable. But his comment about that was one of the things that triggered the selloff today as people are again concerned the Fed won't be able to thread the needle and we'll see layoffs all over.
this one did not concern me as it has nothing to do with factory workers and those who are productively and actively increasing the revenue of the company. I think the layoff action is mostly intended to cut fat. He mentioned right after that the manufacturing side of the company will continue to grow (on site workers)
 

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I don't know Elon where he wants to go with his battles but if he can just take a month off from twitter Tesla can easily be in the 900 range
 

Russ Smith

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this one did not concern me as it has nothing to do with factory workers and those who are productively and actively increasing the revenue of the company. I think the layoff action is mostly intended to cut fat. He mentioned right after that the manufacturing side of the company will continue to grow (on site workers)


What he said in the email was that if we're asking factory people to work 12 hours a day and in some cases 6 days a week, I expect execs etc to work similar hours and be onsite at least 40 hours like the factory guys are.

The reason the factory guys do it is they're paid hourly and since California sued Musk for violating OT laws, he's presumably paying OT. The exec guys are salaried so if they work 60 plus hours in a week they don't get extra pay. Again right now they will probably cooperate to try and help tesla through a tough time but it also won't surprise me if he starts losing execs to other companies who don't demand that.

It wasn't to me so much a statement about Tesla as the market sees hey jobs are cooling, under 400K for the first time in awhile, and hey Tesla is laying off, are we about to see layoffs, sell. They took something specific to TSLA and said what if the whole tech sector does that.

The fed has to be careful though if they go too far and we start to see lots of layoffs that will be a big problem if inflation is still high.
 

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What he said in the email was that if we're asking factory people to work 12 hours a day and in some cases 6 days a week, I expect execs etc to work similar hours and be onsite at least 40 hours like the factory guys are.

The reason the factory guys do it is they're paid hourly and since California sued Musk for violating OT laws, he's presumably paying OT. The exec guys are salaried so if they work 60 plus hours in a week they don't get extra pay. Again right now they will probably cooperate to try and help tesla through a tough time but it also won't surprise me if he starts losing execs to other companies who don't demand that.

It wasn't to me so much a statement about Tesla as the market sees hey jobs are cooling, under 400K for the first time in awhile, and hey Tesla is laying off, are we about to see layoffs, sell. They took something specific to TSLA and said what if the whole tech sector does that.

The fed has to be careful though if they go too far and we start to see lots of layoffs that will be a big problem if inflation is still high.
I read the email. I'm not concerned and I have a different perspective on it. NBD.


also, today's market movement for specific companies is pretty irrelevant considering my watchlist

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Russ Smith

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I read the email. I'm not concerned and I have a different perspective on it. NBD.


also, today's market movement for specific companies is pretty irrelevant considering my watchlist

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Probably worded poorly but I wasn't being specific to TSLA but to the feeling that Musk was sounding an alarm on the overall market and economy when he said I have a really bad feeling about the economy.

on TSLA specifically, the general speculation is that Musk WANTS people to quit, the wording of the come back to work or we'll assume you resigned email and then the subsequent layoff one is believed to be intentional. Musk wants to reduce headcount for salaried employees by 10%, but he doesn't want to pay severance pay, so he decides to send an email he thinks will piss some people off who frankly weren't interested in ever coming back onsite full time, in the hopes they will just quit.
 

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JP Morgan says by end of 2022 market will have recovered losses, staved off recession and Ukraine will be less of a factor. Also says stock buybacks will be a big factor in pushing prices back up.

About the most positive forecast I've seen in months.

 

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I read the email. I'm not concerned and I have a different perspective on it. NBD.


also, today's market movement for specific companies is pretty irrelevant considering my watchlist

What do you have that trades at 30,000? Is that BTC?

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Russ Smith

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2 days later Musk said they won't be doing 10% cuts afterall they will stay largely flat with the salaried employees.

And today he filed paperwork with the SEC alleging material breach of contract by Twitter because they won't give him the data he wants on bots.

This is going to be fascinating if this deal blows up, there is so much stuff he put out there, on Twitter, and in person that can be used against him in court if the deal falls through. At the recent All In he used a comparison of if you buy a house and you are told the termites are less than 5% and you find out later it's actually more than 90% that's not acceptable. So in that statement he asserted 90% of Twitter users are fake, which violates(again) the clause in the contract that he can't disparage Twitter publicly until after the deal is done.

Twitter insists he can't do "random sampling of users" because the data he wants contains non public(that means private) info they can't legally give him. He's offering to sign NDA's for all the non public stuff which Twitters lawyers said is preposterous since NDA's wouldn't give them any legal protection from users whose private data were provided to Musk, it would only protect Musk.

At this point I hope it all blows up
 

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At this point I hope it all blows up

And yet, no matter what happens, his fans will insist that he handled everything the right way, and his stature will continue to grow. He really is like Trump. Constantly talks out of both sides of his mouth, one public failure after another, but parades an image of wealth to convince people that he knows what he's doing.
 

Russ Smith

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And yet, no matter what happens, his fans will insist that he handled everything the right way, and his stature will continue to grow. He really is like Trump. Constantly talks out of both sides of his mouth, one public failure after another, but parades an image of wealth to convince people that he knows what he's doing.

I just want it to blow up because I own TSLA stock now and I want him to get back to running Tesla.

As soon as it became clear he was doing exactly what the economist guy said he'd have to do, sell and borrow against TSLA stock to afford Twitter I was skeptical of the deal ever really happening.

Really bad timing the market falling so much made his deal much harder and made it clear he was overpaying
 

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This will soon be our very own decree...

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