The Market 2022-2023-2024

[GoldGloveschmidt]

Well, that's a lot of assumptions as well. Those economic indicators have actual historical relevance with recessions AND 35 percent drawdowns or more each occurrence. But, to be fair, it could be different this time and we remain in a secular bull market. The reality is we have zero idea what will come tomorrow or in 10 years. My money isn't betting on that bullish scenario though.

It wouldn't be different this time.. it would be the same. There were two recessions in the 80's caused by Paul Volcker skyrocketing interest rates to tame persistent inflation. Conditions then were worse than they are today. Unemployment during these recessions peaked at 10.8 and 7.8 percent, much worse than we are likely to see during this cycle. And the market remained in the secular bull.

 

[dscher]

It wouldn't be different this time.. it would be the same. There were two recessions in the 80's caused by Paul Volcker skyrocketing interest rates to tame persistent inflation. Conditions then were worse than they are today. Unemployment during these recessions peaked at 10.8 and 7.8 percent, much worse than we are likely to see during this cycle. And the market remained in the secular bull.

If we don't have a cyclical or secular bear with the conditions I just presented in my chart, this would absolutely be different this time...since 1999/2000. So, yes, I am considering the fact we are end cycle consumer based economy instead of the 80s that was basically the start of a consumer based economy.

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Rate cuts incoming.

 

[GoldGloveschmidt]

If we don't have a cyclical or secular bear with the conditions I just presented in my chart, this would absolutely be different this time...since 1999/2000. So, yes, I am considering the fact we are end cycle consumer based economy instead of the 80s that was basically the start of a consumer based economy.

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Rate cuts incoming.

We had a cyclical bear last year. We will have another one within the next year or two when the recession finally happens.

You gotta stop following accounts like that, man.

But to each his own. Best of luck to you.

 

[dscher]

We had a cyclical bear last year. We will have another one within the next year or two when the recession finally happens.

You gotta stop following accounts like that, man.

But to each his own. Best of luck to you.

Accounts like that are in the same boat as the flip side of their bullish counterparts. It's a difference of opinion and perspective. Having a wide range of bearish and bullish opinions is never a bad thing IMO.

Best of luck to you as well.

 

[GoldGloveschmidt]

Today, market leaders like TSLA and Netflix had a 10% down day, Semiconductors got hammered, but the Dow was positive and continued its longest rally since 2017.

Market breadth is improving, rotation is happening from tech and high beta to blue chips and small caps. Those will be the places to focus for the remainder of the year.

This is a strong market, still in the early to mid innings after the October cyclical bottom.

In my opinion

 

[Yuma]

I am like Warren Buffet. I actually like when markets go down so I can buy more shares.

I also look at when/how people buy stocks. This market is going up, but we haven't seen shows yet touting to get in on the market. When the Today show, etc, start talking about how great the market is, and everyone you know is talking about buying stocks, time to get out. When no one wants to buy, and the stock market is "dead" then it's time to get in!

 

[jf-08]

I am like Warren Buffet. I actually like when markets go down so I can buy more shares.

I also look at when/how people buy stocks. This market is going up, but we haven't seen shows yet touting to get in on the market. When the Today show, etc, start talking about how great the market is, and everyone you know is talking about buying stocks, time to get out. When no one wants to buy, and the stock market is "dead" then it's time to get in!

Wait, you buy stocks when they are low and sell when high???

 

[Yuma]

One time, a buddy of mine saw me sitting and thinking with a frown on my face. He asked what was wrong. I told him the stock market was at new all time highs. He looked at me like I was crazy! I had a 401K at work and was just looking at my monthly statement. I showed him, I am buying a third of the shares for the same money as I was just last year! He looked at me, and said, the market going up is good right? Another coworker came in and heard the tail end of the conversation and called me a vulture!

 

[dscher]

It's time again for the resident bears pessimistic warning for all...

Be alert and aware here for anything. Banks, BOJ stuff, yield curve, etc, etc...

Things are getting very spicy out there.

 

[jbjarko]

Ouch...today hurts.

 

[Dback Jon]

Ouch...today hurts.

After so many days of gains, these will happen. Profit taking.

 

[Yuma]

Just a few days back I was all in on S&P 500 in my portfolio. I don't need the money for 10 to 13 years out. So today is a blip. Anyway, I put 30% of my portfolio in a bond fund, that is actually up slightly today. Absorbing some of the market volatility. Nice!

 

[dscher]

Ouch...today hurts.

The bond market wasn't confirming most of this move in the Nasdaq and tech since the beginning of the year IMO. If treasuries continue selling off based on the trajectory and trend it's been on, then it could equate to significantly more ouch. Specifically the Nasdaq and big tech names out there.

 

[Yuma]

The bond market wasn't confirming most of this move in the Nasdaq and tech since the beginning of the year IMO. If treasuries continue selling off based on the trajectory and trend it's been on, then it could equate to significantly more ouch. Specifically the Nasdaq and big tech names out there.

On the flip side, if you are still in buy mode on stocks, you can get more for your money. I know this is for rich people, but I was watching a FIRE video, and they say to have a years income in a reserve account, so when the stock market melts in a year, you can leave everything as is, and live off your reserve fund. They say to put money away in good market years to help fund the reserve. I guess that depends on how much you have to take out in the first place.

 

[dscher]

Fed still selling. Balance sheet now lower than March of this year.

Recent balance sheet trends

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

www.federalreserve.gov

 

[elindholm]

Nice bounce-back today, at least so far. But the rally is still very top-heavy. Those of us who are more balanced aren't seeing big gains.

 

[jbjarko]

Any thoughts on PANW? I am still positive but have taken a bath the past few days.

 

[dscher]

Uh oh semis..

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[Yuma]

Uh oh semis..

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Time to short Bear Stearns

 

[dscher]

Bulls listening to JPow today....

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[Yuma]

It's interesting the world wide economy. China cutting rates as fast as they can and selling off treasuries to keep their economy from imploding. Meanwhile Russia is raising its interest rates over 3% in one day trying to prop up their currency. We seem like we are doing better than most in the world.

 

[dscher]

It's interesting the world wide economy. China cutting rates as fast as they can and selling off treasuries to keep their economy from imploding. Meanwhile Russia is raising its interest rates over 3% in one day trying to prop up their currency. We seem like we are doing better than most in the world.

It's ALL about currency. China is trying to avoid a collapsing yuan vs the dollar. Japan is trying to avoid hyperinflation and collapsing of their yen. Russia is no different. They are fighting an unwinnable battle IMHO. The dollar will be the last to go as the global reserve currency.

 

[Yuma]

The ruble was at a penny per dollar when I last looked and threatening to become less than a penny in its slide. If it weren't for Russia selling oil right now, they would be toast!

 

[dscher]

Batten down the hatches..

 

[Yuma]

Batten down the hatches..

I've made moves with my portfolio waiting for this down turn!