The Market 2022-2023-2024

[dscher]

I've made moves with my portfolio waiting for this down turn!

Risk management is never a bad idea.

 

[Yuma]

Risk management is never a bad idea.

I looked at it like taking a profit. When my S&P 500 Index funds hit 20% return for the year, I figured I would lock in that profit. Don't get greedy. Then I readied myself for a down turn. This could be it.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Batten down the hatches..

They're battened down. I have SPY shorted with Dec. 15th strikes. I'm pretty sure we're going to see a shutdown in DC and that'll cause a market drop.

 

[dscher]

They're battened down. I have SPY shorted with Dec. 15th strikes. I'm pretty sure we're going to see a shutdown in DC and that'll cause a market drop.

If that doesn't cause it, there is a plethora of other things that will.. IMO

 

[Devilmaycare]

If that doesn't cause it, there is a plethora of other things that will.. IMO

100% I had been thinking of making the play due to student loan payments starting back up. My gut's been saying that that's going to disrupt the economy more than people think. A shutdown feels like a perfect storm is brewing for market drop.

 

[dscher]

100% I had been thinking of making the play due to student loan payments starting back up. My gut's been saying that that's going to disrupt the economy more than people think. A shutdown feels like a perfect storm is brewing for market drop.

We're definitely in a black swan environment right now by the feel of things.. my analysis/ technicals align with that sentiment as well. Regardless, wherever we go from here, it's not a bad time to be extremely cautious just based on systemic risks alone.

 

[Yuma]

A small group of Republicans playing chicken with the economy.

 

[dscher]

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[Folster]

https://x.com/WhaleWire/status/1705776976089256341?s=20

All of the pandemic debt spending is catching up to people.

 

[dscher]

All of the pandemic debt spending is catching up to people

It's a perfect storm of just a bit of everything right now, unfortunately.

 

[Yuma]

Pandemic spending, and also pandemic protections. This month protections from eviction started during the pandemic went away. NPR said we have the lowest unemployment in PHX area right now, HOWEVER, something like 7,700 eviction notices went out this month. IDK AZ law on this, it will take 30-90 days to see those take effect where people are actually evicted. Plus this is a tight rental market right now in PHX, and what landlord will rent to someone with an eviction on their credit score? Could be some bad juju for us locally. NPR didn't say how many of the notices were for rentals versus homes owned.

 

[Folster]

Rough day with the S&P down 1.5%.

 

[dscher]

Rough day with the S&P down 1.5%.

All eyes on the bond market and the dollar. They are not taking a breather.. that's a very dangerous scenario ATM. IMO

 

[Yuma]

All eyes on the bond market and the dollar. They are not taking a breather.. that's a very dangerous scenario ATM. IMO

I expect the dollar to tank. The Bond market bothers me a bit, though. Republicans gonna drop our bond rating for something they are not going to get. Just so they can say they tried.

 

[dscher]

I expect the dollar to tank. The Bond market bothers me a bit, though. Republicans gonna drop our bond rating for something they are not going to get. Just so they can say they tried.

Republicans. Lol. It's all about Japan and their yield curve control tactics. The BOJ, much like our central bank, is in between a rock and hard place. They are doing everything to keep the yen from collapsing and need to sell US treasuries to do so. It's nasty cycle that won't end well for either economy... along with the global economy. IMO

 

[dscher]

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[dscher]

These are the type of people in charge of our Treasury..

Nothing to see here.

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[Folster]

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[dscher]

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It's mind blowing the amount of potential systemic contagion is out there right now..

Everyone be safe out there.

 

[Folster]

These are the type of people in charge of our Treasury..

Nothing to see here.

https://x.com/Dcpcooks/status/1709294986481594557?s=20

If you edit the URL by putting in twitter instead of x, this site will show the tweet preview. Someone in admin or support needs to update that feature to work with the new X url.

 

[jf-08]

If you edit the URL by putting in twitter instead of x, this site will show the tweet preview. Someone in admin or support needs to update that feature to work with the new X url.

We want to put you to work fixing those.

 

[puckhead]

The first thing to do after receiving the ability to edit is to have some fun with JF's posts.

The doctor said I wouldn't get as many nosebleeds if I kept my finger out of there!

 

[Devilmaycare]

The first thing to do after receiving the ability to edit is to have some fun with JF's posts.

I expected you to edit one

 

[Folster]

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[elindholm]

Rough day with the S&P down 1.5%.

The bears are having their moment. The last 6-8 weeks have been terrible.