The Myth of Gilmore's "Bad Hands"

[Tangodnzr]

Sooooo many people have seemed to jump on the bandwagon, mindlessly accusing Bryan Gilmore of "bad hands".

I see this type of behavior a lot here. Someone regurgitates some inane "sound" byte or "label" about a player and like a herd of sheep others follow suit, apparently oblivious to the concept that the label or tag has no basis in fact.
Often this seems to originate from a closed mind, usually a homer for another player, or just someone shooting off their mouth trying to sound like a "ex-spurt" without bothering to substantiate their "take" before they start proliferating it.

I'm not picking on Harpo, personally, but he did challenge me on this the other day, first by making the exaggerated claim that Gilmore dropped over half the passes thrown to him. When I called him on it he replied:

"According to the stats you provided Gilmore has had 22 catchable balls thrown to him and has dropped 6. That means GILMORE DROPS 27.27% of all passes thrown to him. So basically, there is a better than 1 in 4 chance that he will drop the ball, yet guys on here (Tango) say hands aren't the problem? Please post the other starting WR's who drop more than 27% of the balls thrown to them, AND have less than 20 receptions on the season. (My bet is there are zero). If you were the qb would you want to throw to him?" Where did you get these figures? They surely didn't come from me.

I use this only as an example, and in his case, being a self-admitted Kasper fan, I can understand his bias....but it is so typical of a lot of others too.

As a result, I took the time to review my game tapes and the NFL stats for last year and here's the results:
Game 1 vs Lions - 2 rec/3 throws for 17 yds
Game 2 vs Seahawks - inactive
Game 3 vs Packers - did not play
Game 4 vs Rams - 0 rec/0 thrown to
Game 5 vs Cowboys - 2 rec/2 throws for 30 yds/ 1 TD
Game 6 vs Ravens - 1 rec/1 throw for 14 yds / 1 TD
Game 7 - bye
Game 8 vs 49ers - 2/4 for 18 yds 1st inc= should have had it, he had stopped let ball get to his body 2nd inc= Boldin threw ball short, uncatchable
Game 9 vs Bengals -- 2/6 for 40 yds 1st inc= missing on my tapes 2nd= ball overthrown 3rd= Blake threw away, not even close 4th= not even close throw
Game 10 vs Steelers - 0/2 1st inc = Blake pressured, throw not even close, thrown to ground 2nd - Blake pressure, ball thrown behind him, uncatchable
Game 11 vs Browns - 1/5 for 9 yds 1st inc= way overthrown 2nd = almost int, CB cut in front ball never got to him 3rd = overthrown/ but def penalty for 1st down 4th= ball thrown behind, uncatchable
Game 12 vs Rams - 3/4 for 50 yds 1 inc = missing on my tape plus an additional recept that was negated on off. penalty
Game 13 vs Bears - 1/2 for 3 yds 1 inc = drop, again stopped, squared an let ball get to body
Game 14 vs 49ers - 0/2 1st inc = ball underthown, tipped about half way to him 2nd = McCown pass, short skipped on ground to him
Game 15 vs Panthers - 2/3 for 24 yds 1 inc= ball thown away OB, not even close
Game 16 vs Seahawks - 0/2 1st inc = missing on my tapes 2nd inc = Ken Lucas got arm in and broke up reception
Game 17 vs Vikings - 0/1

So from the tapes, 16 receptions for 204 yds, NFL com. has him listed at 17 for 208 and 12 first downs

I'm missing 3 plays on my tapes. Other than that he only had 2 actual drops. ALL of the rest were uncatchable except for maybe the one that Lucas broke up, but that is highly questionable, and not what I would call a "bad hands" play.

Now, I'm not arguing that Gilmore doesn't need to step up his game, but to label him bad hands is something I'd never seen, and the tapes back that up.
Of the 17 rececptions he made, 12 were for 1st downs, a very high percentage, and he did make some tough catches.

For whatever shortcomings he may have, "Bad Hands" is NOT one of them.

 

[Skkorpion]

If Gilmore and Kasper play in this minicamp the way they did last Friday and Saturday, both will be gone. That's only an opinion, and it's based on only four practices. AND, I've missed the last three and Jo reports Kasper is playing well.

 

[Ryanwb]

There is no myth, Gilmore sucks....

Why don't you come down to training camp and see for yourself

 

[Tangodnzr]

There is no myth, Gilmore sucks....

Why don't you come down to training camp and see for yourself

Can't you read Cryan???

I said: I'm not trying to argue that his game doesn't need to step up...I also made it quite plain I was only referring to what I feel is the bad rap of "bad hands"...nothing else.

What part of that is so difficult for you to understand? Or is this just more of your usual badgering me, no matter what I say?

I'm not trying to change your, or anyone else's opinion of him, overall....man...get a life.

PS...If I were back in Phoenix, you can bet your bippy I'd be there.

 

[Ryanwb]

PS...If I were back in Phoenix, you can bet your bippy I'd be there.

lets leave my bippy out of this...

Besides, you are making this monumental observation off of 16 passes he caught?

The guy is supposedly the fastest offensive player on the team, why has he never been tried at PR or KR? Because he has skillet hands, I and about half the board have seen him in training camp muffing many catches (actually only was up there twice last year, but like a week the year before) while you are making observations off of 16 catches.

Amazing, simply amazing

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Look. Regardless if the guy catches the ball or not. He has shown us (me, coaches, the general public) NOTHING!

Where is the "blazing speed" ? Cause I didn't see him outrun ANYONE last year.

And whoopTdo he didn't drop that many passes. Yeah, well the ones he did drop where in critical situations, and the ones he caught were a non-factor. Except for his 1 TD reception, and to cancel that out he also had a false start called against him.

Yet, if he did in fact "step up his game" it would be interesting since I hear he has great speed. But unfortunately last year was his chance to show what he's got, and he didn't show that much.

Peace

 

[Ryanwb]

I find it amazing that someone can defend a player that opitimizes our 4-12 seasons. Gilmore is the poster boy of this franchises ineptitude over the years, cut our losses and bring in someone who can do something...anything to contribute

 

[100%CardsFan]

I knew this would be a good Ryan vs Tango thread!! BTW Gilmore has bad hands.

 

[Tangodnzr]

lets leave my bippy out of this...

Besides, you are making this monumental observation off of 16 passes he caught? No, I'm only using tapes of actual games. Isn't that what counts? And I neglected to include in the total of 37 plays he was involved in. Obviously for people like you, that was the only "monumental" occurance of any kind. Of the 37 plays he was involved in as a receiver, he caught 16 of them, 3 plays are missing from my tapes, and I specifically addressed each incomplete, describing the circumstances. Only 2 were "drops" , the play Ken Lucas broke up might be debateable, but ALL the rest (19) were UNCATCHABLE!!!!

The guy is supposedly the fastest offensive player on the team, why has he never been tried at PR or KR? I don't know the answer to that. If I were to guess, I'd say "bad hands" isn't the primary reason. Martay was a decent kick returner, but fumbled a lot. Gilmore has never shown that. As a kick returner "hands" as far as far as "catching" the ball is not usually a major issue, it more ...can the guy hold on to it once he starts upfield. Gilmore has the speed, but I've never seen the elusiveness that someone like Quan has, which is what a good punt returner needs. (plus catching the ball is a little more critical there, but again, I would venture to say that isn't the reason he wasn't returning punts. Because he has skillet hands,So you say. I've documented why I differ. You haven't documented squat, other than to keep insisting your bias doesn't seem to affect your vision. I and about half the board have seen him in training camp muffing many catches (actually only was up there twice last year, but like a week the year before) while you are making observations off of 16 catches.

Amazing, simply amazing

PS...all players drop balls sometimes, that they should have caught. I mentioned that about Terrell Owens last year. I also noticed that Quan "purely" dropped quite a number of catchable throws last year, but I don't see any one making mountains out of THOSE mole hills.
...and rightfully so. You want to make Gilmore your whipping boy, go ahead. It's your delusion. I, for one ain't buying that part of it.

 

[Tangodnzr]

I find it amazing that someone can defend a player that opitimizes our 4-12 seasons. Gilmore is the poster boy of this franchises ineptitude over the years, cut our losses and bring in someone who can do something...anything to contribute

There you go again....blowing exaggerated smoke. You just don't seem to "get it". I'm only defending what I feel is the bad rap on him in regard to "bad hands".....nothing else. Why does that continue to be so difficult for you to comprehend?

And why do you keep insisting on "putting words in my mouth" that I have never uttered?????

I have reservations about him. But bad hands is not one of them.
And I certainly think there's a lot more reasons for the Cards 4-12 record last year than Bryan Gilmore's play.

 

[joeshmo]

Here is my analysis of the "hands" of our WR's.

Got all stats from snap.stats.com, it is the service that does stats for many teams and the NFL

I only added WR's who were target more then 10 times and had more then 10 catches.

The trageted column means how many times he was thrown at.
The %of drops per target - means the percentage of drops the player had compared to how many times he was targeted. Lower the number the better.

I even added a few control players for this study as a barometer of what these percentages really mean. I added Darrell Jackson becuase he had the most drops this year with 12. I also added Marvin Harrison since most people think he has the best hands in the league.

Johnson					
Targeted	Rec.	Drops	%of drops per target	%of drops per Rec.
77	         35	  4	    5.19%		      11.43%
					
Poole					
Targeted	Rec.	Drops	%of drops per target	%of drops per Rec.
19	         13	  1	    5.26%		      7.69%
					
Boldin					
Targeted	Rec.	Drops	%of drops per target	%of drops per Rec.
165	        101	 10	    6.06%	              9.90%
					
Gilmore					
Targeted	Rec.	Drops	%of drops per target	%of drops per Rec.
45	         17	  4	     8.89%		      23.53%
					
McCaddley					
Targeted	Rec.	Drops	%of drops per target	%of drops per Rec.
12	         4	   2	     16.67%		      50.00%
					
CONTROL PLAYERS					
					
Marvin Harrison					
Targeted	Rec.	Drops	%of drops per target	%of drops per Rec.
142	        94	  7	     4.93%		      7.45%
					
Darrell Jackson					
Targeted	Rec.	Drops	%of drops per target	%of drops per Rec.
130	        68	  12	     9.23%		      17.65%

Make any assumptions or conlusions that you wish to make with this stat analysis that you wish to.

But IMO it shows that Gilmores hands as below average.
And McCaddleys hands as crappy.
And Poole deserves a long hard look to make this team.

 

[100%CardsFan]

Great post Joe, I was gonna ask last week if anyone knew how many times we threw to Bryant Johnson last year, Thanks bro

 

[Ryanwb]

Tango doesn't let numbers get into the way of a good argument

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

But IMO it shows that Gilmores hands as below average.
And McCaddleys hands as crappy.
And Poole deserves a long hard look to make this team.

McAddley drops easy catches, yet will make the nearly impossible ones. It's a condition known as 'Frank Sanders Syndrome.'

 

[Tangodnzr]

Look. Regardless if the guy catches the ball or not. He has shown us (me, coaches, the general public) NOTHING!

Where is the "blazing speed" ? Cause I didn't see him outrun ANYONE last year.

And whoopTdo he didn't drop that many passes. Yeah, well the ones he did drop where in critical situations, and the ones he caught were a non-factor. Except for his 1 TD reception, and to cancel that out he also had a false start called against him.

Yet, if he did in fact "step up his game" it would be interesting since I hear he has great speed. But unfortunately last year was his chance to show what he's got, and he didn't show that much.

Peace

I agree with your first comment, to a degree. I do think he needs to show more. My biggest question has been: why hasn't he been thrown to more?
My guess, as I've said before, is he maybe needs to play a little more physical.
But as TO or Randy Moss never fail to remind people...you can't catch it if no one throws it to you.
I think the emergence of Quan had a partial role in that. With both the play design and the QB normally looking his way as the primary receiver. Blake was atrocious last year. his accuracy sucked quite often. Part of that was likely due to the pressure he often was under, but Quan, again naturally, became the guy the QB "looked to" most often.

As far as him "not outrunning anyone"....that's just another exaggeration. I can think of 3 plays off the top of my head from watching the tapes where he had his man beat deep....twice Blake overthrew him and the other Gilmore cut in across the field and Blake threw it out to the sidelines...obviously a miscommunication on someone's part.
There WERE many time Gilmore was open, but the QB just didn't get him the ball.

I don't call 12 first downs out of 16-17 receptions "not making critical plays".
....and just a minor correction in your comment...he had two TD's not just one. One in the first Dallas game and another next game against the Ravens.

He also split a lot of time with Bryant Johnson, with Johnson being worked in more and more as the season progressed, so he was only on the field at certain times.

One final point to ponder. Many times the "speed" or "deep" receiver is utilized not as the primary target but simply to stretch the field and occupy DB's, enabling others (like Quan) to have a better chance to make the shorter play.

Few teams go for the "bomb" on the majority of their pass plays.

I don't deny that he has to step up his game, but at the same time, I feel too many here, as is so often the case, unjustifiably crucify players with their over simplified, biased, tunnel vision.

 

[Tangodnzr]

Joe, you seem like a fairly reasonable and unbiased fan, from what I've seen.

Let me ask you this. Do you think that the increased "touches" of the ball have any correlation to the % shown in either the "drops per target" or "drop per reception"?

I would think, like most stats and probabilities, it is a factor.

Just like I would be willing to bet that McCaddleys numbers wouldn't be quite so atrocious if he had a "domain" or "database" that was larger.

I would compare it to flipping a coin...in a short period the odds are easier to be skewed...the more tries the more "accurate" the "reality" of those figures.
You can flip 10 heads in a row, but the more you flip the more those numbers will approach the theoretical 50%.

Marvin Harrison might drop 4 balls in his first 16 receptions but none in the next 40...so as with all stats...they don't tell the WHOLE story.

 

[CaptTurbo]

why are you fighting about a starting wr with 16 catches. Shouldnt be in the nfl or nfl europe.

 

[100%CardsFan]

Tango, Let me ask you a question. If the Cards could only keep one out of these receivers who would you like them to keep Gilmore, Kasper or Poole?

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Tango, Let me ask you a question. If the Cards could only keep one out of these receivers who would you like them to keep Gilmore, Kasper or Poole?

Is this a trick question?

I pick Jake Solliday!

PEace

 

[Tangodnzr]

Tango, Let me ask you a question. If the Cards could only keep one out of these receivers who would you like them to keep Gilmore, Kasper or Poole?

I'm not goint to "bite" on that per se.

Simply because I doubt that only 1 of them will make the team.

At this point, I honestly don't know. A lot is going to depend on the what happens between now and the end of training camp.

I will say this.

Without considering Fitz or Williams, etc.

I say Boldin and Johnson are unquestionably the starters.

I would expect the team to keep 6 receivers, they've sometimes kept 7, but that was in the past.

Right now I would actually like to see all 3 make it. I think McCaddley is the one most teetering on the bubble.

All three have different styles and skills, so until we see the overall makeup solidify, I don't think a realistic choice can be made just yet.

 

[RLakin]

lets leave my bippy out of this...

Besides, you are making this monumental observation off of 16 passes he caught?

The guy is supposedly the fastest offensive player on the team, why has he never been tried at PR or KR? Because he has skillet hands, I and about half the board have seen him in training camp muffing many catches (actually only was up there twice last year, but like a week the year before) while you are making observations off of 16 catches.

Amazing, simply amazing

Good point. I often wondered the same in regards to James Jett, a track star who Al Davis kept on the Raiders roster every year and who, every year, the current coaching staff would not use as a
KR or PR.
He had bad hands. And keep in mind Jett caught 45 passes and 12 TDs in a season. Far cry from Gilmore's stellar 16.

 

[Russ Smith]

Good point. I often wondered the same in regards to James Jett, a track star who Al Davis kept on the Raiders roster every year and who, every year, the current coaching staff would not use as a
KR or PR.
He had bad hands. And keep in mind Jett caught 45 passes and 12 TDs in a season. Far cry from Gilmore's stellar 16.

Not just hands though, KR's have to be quick to make the first guy miss. Jett and Gilmore are straight ahead fast, but had no wiggle to make anybody miss. that and Gilmore was hurt enough as it was without returning kicks.

I think the reason Blake and Gilmore never hooked up deep is Gilmore's tendency to let himself get forced to the sideline by CB's. At least 3 times i saw him do that and the ball wound up an "overthrow" when it was really the DB cutting the angle on Gilmore so he had to slow down or go out of bounds. Johnson did the same thing, I quoted Sullivan about it during the season saying the deep balls would come when WR's started running through plays, and not letting themselves get hung on the sideline.

 

[Harpo]

Here are some classic threads on this exact subject.......

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=21449
http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=20792
http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=20710&page=1&pp=15

Those stats came from the paid portion of stats.com I believe. They were posted on here during the season. As for Gilmore, do you not remember the sure td that he absolutely whiffed on in a close game (I can't remember which game it was, but it was his 2nd drop) that was left our of your analysis. Regardless of his hands, that was his 4th season in the NFL. He was handed the starting job, and was an absolute non-factor, either not getting open or just plain dropping the ball. He sucked. You put in Poole off the bench, and he produced, you started Gilmore for 10+games and he did next to nothing. He was hyped by Sully, Jim O, and Mac for his speed, and how often he was seen working out in the offseason, unfortunately he was unseen on the field where it matters.

 

[100%CardsFan]

Tango, I wasnt setting that up as a hook, line and sinker I was just wondering who you thought was the best receiver out of those 3

 

[joeshmo]

Here are some classic threads on this exact subject.......

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=21449
http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=20792
http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=20710&page=1&pp=15

Those stats came from the paid portion of stats.com I believe. They were posted on here during the season. As for Gilmore, do you not remember the sure td that he absolutely whiffed on in a close game (I can't remember which game it was, but it was his 2nd drop) that was left our of your analysis. Regardless of his hands, that was his 4th season in the NFL. He was handed the starting job, and was an absolute non-factor, either not getting open or just plain dropping the ball. He sucked. You put in Poole off the bench, and he produced, you started Gilmore for 10+games and he did next to nothing. He was hyped by Sully, Jim O, and Mac for his speed, and how often he was seen working out in the offseason, unfortunately he was unseen on the field where it matters.

I think this is the whole point on Gilmore, regardless if you think he has bad hands or not(of which I do) that isnt his only problem. Like Harpo said 4th year and handed the starting job last year and a guy(Poole) comes off of the bench and out produces him.

I think we come down on Gilmore the hardest becuase we have been hearing for 4 years how good he is supposed to be from the coaches. If he wasnt so hyped up like the coaches did with him, I am willing to bet that we wouldnt even be talking about him as we speak, becusae we have no reason to be dissappointed.