The Myth of Josh McCown the "Cheap Starter"

[40yearfan]

This whole thread really doesn't mean much. The one thing noone's considered is the DG factor. He used 7 different QB's in 10 years and most of them were rejects from other teams. Why won't he be able to do that here? If Josh performs extremely well and decides to try out the free agent market, DG will find another cheap replacement and not miss a step.

This is why I'm dead set against getting a high 1st. round draft pick QB. Why waste the money on someone who won't help this team for a least a year and maybe even 2 years. I want to win now, so draft someone who will have an immediate impact and help us win. Don't spend millions of dollars in cap space on a guy whose gonna sit on the bench. We need wins, not potential.

 

[Russ Smith]

Originally posted by 40yearfan
This whole thread really doesn't mean much. The one thing noone's considered is the DG factor. He used 7 different QB's in 10 years and most of them were rejects from other teams. Why won't he be able to do that here? If Josh performs extremely well and decides to try out the free agent market, DG will find another cheap replacement and not miss a step.

This is why I'm dead set against getting a high 1st. round draft pick QB. Why waste the money on someone who won't help this team for a least a year and maybe even 2 years. I want to win now, so draft someone who will have an immediate impact and help us win. Don't spend millions of dollars in cap space on a guy whose gonna sit on the bench. We need wins, not potential.

If Green can win immediately with Josh, why wouldn't he be able to do so with Ben or Eli? Manning has far more experience than Josh did in college, and Ben despite being raw and from a smaller school, is going to go a lot higher in the draft than Josh did, because he's shown a lot more in college.

The argument FOR a QB is if Green can make Cunningham an MVP near the end of his career, what can he do with a young Franchise caliber QB?

the obvious answer is... draft Taylor and acquire Henson!

 

[AzCards21]

Get over it Peeps. IF Josh takes us to the playoffs this year you will all be more than willing to pay him his due. If not then there will be at least two"can't miss" Probowl QB's in the draft next year.

Who will be the best in the next few years?
1- McCown
2- Manning
3- Roth
4- Parsons

It's a total toss up and there are no gaurantees. Fortunately we have Green to make those calls. If he chooses McCown then we need to give it a chance. I believe in the choice.

 

[AZCB34]

I think the pay issue is irrelevant. Every QB (even ones who are not that good like Kordell) get paid. I guess the question, as I see it is:

Do you want to test drive the QB before paying the dinero or do you buy without ever having "looked" at the QB (I realize they scouted him but whichever 2004 QB won;t have had NFL snap one when picked)?

It is a risk either way. I prefer test driving the QB...not becuase it supports my procCown stance...but rather because it just seems the more practical route no matter who the QB are or what team.

LV is right though. Odds are strong the Cards won't even draft a QB in round 1...although I wouldn't be shocked to see one taken later.

 

[vikesfan]

This thread misses the point. No one including me has a problem paying big bucks to Eli (or Ben) if he is a great QB. The problem is paying him and he busts. At least with Josh he ONLY gets the big bucks if he plays well. Isn't that the more sensible way to go.

 

[Duckjake]

Originally posted by vikesfan
This thread misses the point. No one including me has a problem paying big bucks to Eli (or Ben) if he is a great QB. The problem is paying him and he busts. At least with Josh he ONLY gets the big bucks if he plays well. Isn't that the more sensible way to go.

And don't forget the additional "cost" of selecting a QB in round one. The loss of the services of the player you could have taken instead of the QB.

 

[spanky1]

Originally posted by vikesfan
This thread misses the point. No one including me has a problem paying big bucks to Eli (or Ben) if he is a great QB. The problem is paying him and he busts. At least with Josh he ONLY gets the big bucks if he plays well. Isn't that the more sensible way to go.

No arguement from me here.

 

[JeffGollin]

there were more 2nd round picks in the NFL Hall Of Fame than 1st round picks. I'm going to try to dig up the article.
Ergo - Everyone should trade his first round picks for second round picks?

Sorry, Skkorp - I still feel there's a flaw in logic here.

Possible explanation - More 1st round players are competing for a far smaller number of HOF roster spots - since they tend to be in skilled or glamor positions (like QB) whereas more 2nd and later rounders tend to compete in more equal percentages for all the HOF roster spots.

And - as I mentioned somewhere earlier - I wonder whether more white guys with blond hair are in the HOF than red, brown or black haired white guys.

I guess I will always be resistant to using past history to form hard and fast rules about what we have to do today.

 

[40yearfan]

Originally posted by JeffGollin

I guess I will always be resistant to using past history to form hard and fast rules about what we have to do today.[/COLOR]

Jeff, I agree with you, especially in the context of this thread where we are talking about QB's. One of the guys mentioned the old QB's who were HOF's and lead their teams to the Superbowl. It used to be that way. You needed a top notch QB to make it there and he was the top guy/leader for the whole team. Today's teams are so specialized that every phase of the team, be it offense, defense, or special teams have to have that leader. The QB can't do it all anymore. Brett Favre is the last of that breed.

Todays' QB's have to be big and tall, fast, very mobile (part RB), and extremely quick witted. If he has a good OL, RB, and one or two good WR's he becomes a double threat. He can beat you with his arm or his legs. That's the modern way teams are trying to build their offenses today. So many weapons that the defense is almost rendered impotent. It doesn't take a HOF QB to do this. Just a good athlete with a sharp mind who can follow orders.

 

[john h]

Originally posted by Chris_Sanders
Well the problem with the Plummer contract is we bid ourselves up. Fortunately I believe that those days of mismanagement are in the past.

That being said, if McCown's head does match his physical ability (which I have never refuted), I believe we will be looking at Jake type money.

I am sort of amazed that we have so many with great or not so great expectations from McCown. They guy has started only 3-4 games in his carreer and they were marginal at best. Certainly not enough information to make some proclomation about him one way or the other. With the Atlanta QB you could see right out of the gate this guy was going to produce. If not with his arm then with his feet. Josh in his few games looked just like what he is a raw rookie. I would think we need another guy in training who will step up if he does not prove out. It would be nice if it were an Eli or Ben in my opinion but many already think Josh is the next coming. Sort of reminds me of how Jake made his first appearance. Jake did show flashes of brillance which soon turned into something else. Josh to this point made a few good plays last year. We do not need to put all of our future in his basket. I do hope he works out as that would solve the greatest problem we really have and that is a proven NFL QB. Without one of these we are no where.

 

[john h]

Originally posted by KingLouieLouie
But the difference is paying for an "unproven" QB coming out of the draft or acquiring someone who has NFL experience....Thats the biggest factor......

Josh has 3 games of real NFL experience. That is something but not very much. Not like a Steve Young who sat around for a number of years.

 

[KingLouieLouie]

Originally posted by john h
Josh has 3 games of real NFL experience. That is something but not very much. Not like a Steve Young who sat around for a number of years.

I wasn't specifically addressing McCown with that comment....I was just inferring that it's a high risk to invest lucractive long-term money for a player who hasn't played a single-down in the NFL over signing someone who has proven his worth over a span for a lengthy period of time....

My angle on this arugment is that McCown never received a fair opportunity with the previous coaching staff, but will now with
Green and Co....If he happens to fail, then pursue that "QB of the future".....

 

[Cheesebeef]

Originally posted by spanky1
Brady as an example (two MVP SB trophies in 3 years) and he is really affordable for another two years.

uh spank - where do you get your information - Brady's cap number for THIS season is 8.5 million dollars - actually HIGHER than Peyton's this season. 8 million is affordable? Seems to contradict what you've been saying.

 

[NMCardfan]

If McCown has a good year, that'll give Green all the more power to argue that any QB can succeed in his offense. When McCown asks for the big payday, the Cards will say "see ya'" and either King or Parsons will be the new QB.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Originally posted by cheesebeef
uh spank - where do you get your information - Brady's cap number for THIS season is 8.5 million dollars - actually HIGHER than Peyton's this season. 8 million is affordable? Seems to contradict what you've been saying.

This is again part of the myth of the cheap QB. People think because they aren't drafted in the first round they are cheap. This simply isn't true.

These guys that are drafted later and have success end up signing huge deals once they hit their early free agency.

 

[vikesfan]

Originally posted by Chris_Sanders
This is again part of the myth of the cheap QB. People think because they aren't drafted in the first round they are cheap. This simply isn't true.

These guys that are drafted later and have success end up signing huge deals once they hit their early free agency.

But again he proved his worth!
The problem with drafting a Round 1 QB is he gets the money without proving his worth. If you have to pay your 4th round QB or FA QB big bucks that is a good thing - that means the dude is producing.

The problem is to pay the big bucks and use up a draft choice on a first round QB and he flops like most have done in the past.

 

[Russ Smith]

Originally posted by vikesfan
But again he proved his worth!
The problem with drafting a Round 1 QB is he gets the money without proving his worth. If you have to pay your 4th round QB or FA QB big bucks that is a good thing - that means the dude is producing.

The problem is to pay the big bucks and use up a draft choice on a first round QB and he flops like most have done in the past.

In theory you're right, in practice the only way that works is if the whole NFL colludes to stop drafting QB's in the first 3 rounds so NO QB's get those huge rookie deals.

Yes there are good QB's in the NFL who weren't first round picks, but the thing is IF NFL teams had known how good they'd be, they'd have gone in the first round. Yes some first round QB's have been busts, doesn't mean all will be. This time last year Leftwich was the "slider" in the draft on this board many of us thought he was the first pick in the draft, better than Palmer, look how far he slid and look how well he did as a rookie on a bad team. That's why NFL teams take QB's so high, if you are right, the payoff is enormous.

 

[AZCB34]

Originally posted by Russ Smith
In theory you're right, in practice the only way that works is if the whole NFL colludes to stop drafting QB's in the first 3 rounds so NO QB's get those huge rookie deals.

Yes there are good QB's in the NFL who weren't first round picks, but the thing is IF NFL teams had known how good they'd be, they'd have gone in the first round. Yes some first round QB's have been busts, doesn't mean all will be. This time last year Leftwich was the "slider" in the draft on this board many of us thought he was the first pick in the draft, better than Palmer, look how far he slid and look how well he did as a rookie on a bad team. That's why NFL teams take QB's so high, if you are right, the payoff is enormous.

If you are wrong though, the pain is even worse.

I think in the grand scheme, every team would prefer to test drive a QB in live NFL action before the big bucks are shelled out. The Cards are in that position right now. They can see what they have on the NFL stage before they pay. That is the best possible scenario for any team.

 

[Russ Smith]

Originally posted by AZCB34
If you are wrong though, the pain is even worse.

I think in the grand scheme, every team would prefer to test drive a QB in live NFL action before the big bucks are shelled out. The Cards are in that position right now. They can see what they have on the NFL stage before they pay. That is the best possible scenario for any team.

I don't think we disagree by much but I do think the point missed here is the "pain" is just as bad if not worse if you bypass a potential "franchise QB" because you think Josh can do the job, and you wind up being wrong.

This franchise narrowly missed chances to draft both Peyton Manning and Michael Vick, my guess is we'd have taken neither guy because of Jake, which now would look pretty bad.

So yes if you're wrong, drafting a QB really high is expensive, but if we pass on a QB this year and it turns out Josh is NOT as good as Green thinks he is, we're going to have to pay for that mistake too either in FA, or in a future draft. Hopefully the player we picked instead of the QB works out to somewhat offset that pain.
at least san diego got Tomlinson when they traded away Vick, if we pass on a Manning or Ben this year we better make damn sure the guy we pick instead is an impact player, like a Taylor or Mike Williams.

The main point of this thread is it's really important to realize that QB's like Josh are only cheap as long as they're untested, once they play, if they are good, they're going to get paid, and fast. So yes the "trial period" is cheap, but if he's any good at all his salary is going to go dramatically as a result. You simply can't make the mistake of saying well he's signed for x years at 3rd round money so he's a bargain, if he's any good at all, he's going to get a much bigger contract.

 

[Tangodnzr]

Great post, Russ.

 

[vikesfan]

Again the point keeps being missed.

(1) If Josh doesn't work out it costs them very very little (a mid-round pick and some minor cash).

If #1 pick QB doesn't work out it costs the team a #1 pick, millions of dollars, losing for years and even possibly a good QB.

You still have to get another QB. That remains the same whether it is Josh or the #1 QB.

(2) Look at CIN. If Palmer is a 3rd round pick or undrafted FA is he named starter? Is he named starter after the year Kitna had. Any team that doesn't have a #1 draft QB is ecstatic over Kitna and he is the starter. Same thing happened in SEA with Hassleback but SEA doesn't have a Palmer they have to get into the lineup. Look at Holcomb in CLE he was developing nicely and they had to keep getting Couch in there. That might have messed up Holocomb.

(3) The NFL has changed. The CAP combined with FA means teams cannot keep 2 great QBs on the team let alone 3. There will always be good QBs being released.

(4) QBs develop later then other positions. So even if the guy doesn't bust your team will not benefit. Couch might develop yet but its not going to do CLE any good.

(5) Why take a gamble. Well some teams gamble more then others for eg. OAK took a K #1. Not many teams would that. A solid team with an older QB can take the gamble of taking a QB #1 why not. A team that has a good QB evaluator or maybe 2 round 1 picks. All 3 applied to when DG took Culpepper.


The NFL is a trend league. A lot of teams I think now get that you can win now and that you don't have to have a franchise QB to do it. Let someone else develop the QB for you and then you pick him up when he is ready to go.

I like Ben and Eli I actually think they have a chance I liked Leftwich. But why gamble when you don't have to. The Cards have too many holes. DG wants to win now and has proven he can with no-name QBs. When the team is a winner then is the time to get an extra #1 or trade up and grab a developmental QB in Round 1 but only if DG feels he is going to develop. He took Culpepper cause he thought he was good not cause he was a QB.

(3) Yes you could have taken Peyton but you also could have taken Leaf.
Even if you get Vick or Peyton it fills one position - you still would have terrible talent elsewhere. If you miss on a franchise QB it is not the end of the world any more the way the NFL is now. If you draft a QB who is not franchise number 1 it's close to the end of the world - too many factors enter into it that have nothing to do with winning football games. As has been show with the FA/Cap system as is you can start winning right away the days of the 5 year plan are over.

 

[Pariah]

Originally posted by vikesfan
But why gamble when you don't have to.

To have a great QB, you have to gamble at some point. If McCown doesn't work out, I'd hate to see the team have to take a QB next year, or the following year.

Draft Ben Roethlisberger!

 

[vikesfan]

Originally posted by Pariah
To have a great QB, you have to gamble at some point. If McCown doesn't work out, I'd hate to see the team have to take a QB next year, or the following year.

Draft Ben Roethlisberger!

But why do you want a great QB when you don't need one anymore to win in the NFL?

If Ben is great the team won't know for a few years. I would hate to see this team lose next year with Josh and the year after with Josh and put Ben in and then lose with Ben for two years then release him and have to get another QB. It's better for this team winning wise to have Josh fail and take another decent QB prospect like him again.

Or what if Josh becomes good not great but solid. At some point you have to get Ben in. Then the trouble starts. And no one is going to give you a #3 first round pick for Ben after he sat on the bench for 3 or 4 years. Is CLE going to get the equivalent pick back for the one they used to draft coach.


The point to gamble to get a great QB is when the team is a winner and can afford to trade up or get an extra first round pick. Then if the dude busts it doesn't hurt the team.

Things like system and offensive line play a huge role in QB success these days.