The Rich Get Richer

[john h]

How does this happen? New England has 4 high draft choices this April. The average age of the team is only 27. They have an all pro QB who is very young. Look at them and look at us and you have to believe between the GM and the Owners they are responsible for the sorry shape we find ourselves in. New England is so well off they may get rid of Welker who looks like an all pro to me even though he did drop a pass in the SB.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

How does this happen? New England has 4 high draft choices this April. The average age of the team is only 27. They have an all pro QB who is very young. Look at them and look at us and you have to believe between the GM and the Owners they are responsible for the sorry shape we find ourselves in. New England is so well off they may get rid of Welker who looks like an all pro to me even though he did drop a pass in the SB.

Trade back and stockpile picks. Veteran teams can do that.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

Trade back and stockpile picks. Veteran teams can do that.

.... and the genius running their draft has done such a fine job that they have to go out and hire old vets to run the system.

 

[82CardsGrad]

The Pat's Super Bowl roster had 30 players who were either drafted in the 5th round or later, or, were undrafted entirely! That is how you get "4 high draft picks" this April.
So, if Belicheck stays true to form, they will again trade one or more (maybe all) of those picks for multiple lower round picks...
The problem with this is that his strategy was exposed this past Sunday... Brady is pretty damn close to a god, but, even he isn't good enough to overcome a team mainly comprised of role players. The NFL remains a league that is about elite talent. They've got that at the QB position, but they really need it in a few other key areas like WR and DE and secondary! Of course, might not hurt as well if they had a true, legit threat at the RB position as well!

 

[azsportsfan01]

Since when is 34 very young in NFL terms?

 

[RugbyMuffin]

1. I agree 99% of the time with this. NE is setup.

2. This year, unlike years past, they have to make some very good picks higher up in the draft. The talent on the Patriots is in sorry shape. The had a ridiculously easy schedule this year, got the Broncos in the first round, and lucked their butts off to win against Baltimore. It was ridiculous they were favored in the Superbowl, and were a holding call away from getting blown out.

3. I hate when I see the competitive teams in this league draft for BPA, and have the flexibility to improve an already good roster through picking for BPA without there being HUGE holes of need in their roster.

Why? Cause here we go again, the Cardinals are drafting to replace the same positions they had to replace 3 or 4 years ago. The reason our RT sucks is because we are always in need of a LT, and refuse to try to improve the position once a pick is made, ala Levi Brown, and furthermore cannot improve the position because the next draft after filling the LT need, we will be filling the CB need, which is then followed by the QB need, and it goes on and on and on.

Other well managed teams get to pick that TE in the first round, or OG in the first round because they once they fill a need, they actually keep in on the roster for more than 3 years.

You can look at the Cardinals roster today, and dictate what position they will draft for in the 1st round for the next 5 years.

 

[Pariah]

How does this happen?

They don't play musical chairs with their roster. They keep players that produce, then add more, then find themselves with a surplus because they draft well and then they parlay that SURPLUS into more picks...rinse and repeat.

In contrast, the Cardinals tend to let good players go and then draft to fill the hole left by the departure and as a result are always playing catch-up.

JMHO

 

[Chopper0080]

They don't play musical chairs with their roster. They keep players that produce, then add more, then find themselves with a surplus because they draft well and then they parlay that SURPLUS into more picks...rinse and repeat.

In contrast, the Cardinals tend to let good players go and then draft to fill the hole left by the departure and as a result are always playing catch-up.

JMHO

This is inaccurate. They have kept marginal players because they only demand marginal contracts, and sign veteran FAs who are limited athletically. The Pats have done a great job in manuvering the NFL draft, but have recently failed to draft impact players with all of those picks. Their roster is far from stacked, and this season proved that they lack the top talent to consistently beat strong teams.

 

[82CardsGrad]

This is inaccurate. They have kept marginal players because they only demand marginal contracts, and sign veteran FAs who are limited athletically. The Pats have done a great job in manuvering the NFL draft, but have recently failed to draft impact players with all of those picks. Their roster is far from stacked, and this season proved that they lack the top talent to consistently beat strong teams.

 

[Pariah]

This is inaccurate. They have kept marginal players because they only demand marginal contracts, and sign veteran FAs who are limited athletically. The Pats have done a great job in manuvering the NFL draft, but have recently failed to draft impact players with all of those picks. Their roster is far from stacked, and this season proved that they lack the top talent to consistently beat strong teams.

So how is it they've been the team to beat for the past decade, then? Do you believe it's just a matter of having a HoF QB and coach?

IMO, that goes a LONG way, but doesn't explain their extended dominance. I think they know who to keep and who to let go and develop their own talent well enough that they DO create a surplus and can parlay it into additional picks.

 

[Chopper0080]

1. I agree 99% of the time with this. NE is setup.

2. This year, unlike years past, they have to make some very good picks higher up in the draft. The talent on the Patriots is in sorry shape. The had a ridiculously easy schedule this year, got the Broncos in the first round, and lucked their butts off to win against Baltimore. It was ridiculous they were favored in the Superbowl, and were a holding call away from getting blown out.

3. I hate when I see the competitive teams in this league draft for BPA, and have the flexibility to improve an already good roster through picking for BPA without there being HUGE holes of need in their roster.Why? Cause here we go again, the Cardinals are drafting to replace the same positions they had to replace 3 or 4 years ago. The reason our RT sucks is because we are always in need of a LT, and refuse to try to improve the position once a pick is made, ala Levi Brown, and furthermore cannot improve the position because the next draft after filling the LT need, we will be filling the CB need, which is then followed by the QB need, and it goes on and on and on.

Other well managed teams get to pick that TE in the first round, or OG in the first round because they once they fill a need, they actually keep in on the roster for more than 3 years.

You can look at the Cardinals roster today, and dictate what position they will draft for in the 1st round for the next 5 years.

What is funny is that I feel that the reason New England and Indy rosters are so poor is that they do draft for need and fail to draft the best players available that the time. Chad Jackson, Devin McCourty, Taylor Price, Jermaine Cunningham, Ron Brace, Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, Terrence Wheatley, Shawn Crable, Brandon Merriweather, and Lawrence Marroney were all need picks in the first three rounds over the past 5 drafts (2010 - 2006) by the Pats. Most of these players are not even on the roster and those that remain are backups. Hell half the first round picks in this period aren't even on the team anymore.

 

[82CardsGrad]

So how is it they've been the team to beat for the past decade, then? Do you believe it's just a matter of having a HoF QB and coach?

IMO, that goes a LONG way, but doesn't explain their extended dominance. I think they know who to keep and who to let go and develop their own talent well enough that they DO create a surplus and can parlay it into additional picks.

I think you guys (and me) are essentially saying the same thing... though, I don't believe they've retained nearly as many starters over the years as you seem to think.
In short, Belicheck has created a model of consistently trading down to stock-pile latter round picks. Again - the super bowl roster this season possessed 30 players who were chosen in the 5th round or later, or, were totally undrafted!
So yes, Brady and Belicheck themselves deserve an incredible amount of credit for somehow keeping this team so dominant over the past decade. It's really an amazing accomplishment this day and age.

All that said, if they don't make serious investments (high draft picks or top flight FA's) at WR, DE, Secondary and/or RB, I just can't see them remaining Super Bowl quality.... As one smart person said about the Pats - "they are now built for First Downs, not Touchdowns...". Hard to win that way, particularly when you have a mediocre at best defense...

 

[82CardsGrad]

What is funny is that I feel that the reason New England and Indy rosters are so poor is that they do draft for need and fail to draft the best players available that the time. Chad Jackson, Devin McCourty, Taylor Price, Jermaine Cunningham, Ron Brace, Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, Terrence Wheatley, Shawn Crable, Brandon Merriweather, and Lawrence Marroney were all need picks in the first three rounds over the past 5 drafts (2010 - 2006) by the Pats. Most of these players are not even on the roster and those that remain are backups. Hell half the first round picks in this period aren't even on the team anymore.

 

[Chopper0080]

So how is it they've been the team to beat for the past decade, then? Do you believe it's just a matter of having a HoF QB and coach?

IMO, that goes a LONG way, but doesn't explain their extended dominance. I think they know who to keep and who to let go and develop their own talent well enough that they DO create a surplus and can parlay it into additional picks.

Yes, and I think that Brady and Belichick did their best job ever this year even getting to the playoffs. As a stated previously, of their past 4 first round picks from 2006 - 2010 (only had 4 in those 5 years) the Pats have cut as many as they still have on their roster.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

What is funny is that I feel that the reason New England and Indy rosters are so poor is that they do draft for need and fail to draft the best players available that the time. Chad Jackson, Devin McCourty, Taylor Price, Jermaine Cunningham, Ron Brace, Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, Terrence Wheatley, Shawn Crable, Brandon Merriweather, and Lawrence Marroney were all need picks in the first three rounds over the past 5 drafts (2010 - 2006) by the Pats. Most of these players are not even on the roster and those that remain are backups. Hell half the first round picks in this period aren't even on the team anymore.

Um what? NE drafted not one, but two stud TE's in the 2010 draft to go with Ryan Mallet last year who was the BPA at the time.

I'm not buying what you're selling here...

 

[82CardsGrad]

Yes, and I think that Brady and Belichick did their best job ever this year even getting to the playoffs. As a stated previously, of their past 4 first round picks from 2006 - 2010 (only had 4 in those 5 years) the Pats have cut as many as they still have on their roster.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Um what? NE drafted not one, but two stud TE's in the 2010 draft to go with Ryan Mallet last year who was the BPA at the time.

I'm not buying what you're selling here...

No doubt Gronk and Hernandez are the exception... Though, I have a suspicion the Hernandez pick was a hedge as Gronk's health was a potential concern...

 

[Chopper0080]

Um what? NE drafted not one, but two stud TE's in the 2010 draft to go with Ryan Mallet last year who was the BPA at the time.

I'm not buying what you're selling here...

OK, lets break this down by the top 4 rounds of draft 2011-2006...we will discuss success rate. bpa is arbitrary so well will focus on the fact that the same positions keep getting drafted.

2011 Draft
1-Nate Solder-OT (benched pre SB for Vollmer, drafted before team signed Light)
2-Ras I Dowling-CB (IR) (Drafted despite team drafting 4 CBs in previous 4 drafts, only 1 still on roster)
3-Shane Vreen-RB (couldn't beat out Kevin Faulk, team had only two backs on roster)
3-Steven Ridley-RB (couldn't beat out Kevin Faulk, team had only two backs on roster)
3-Ryan Mallett-QB (top talent, huge issues, #3 QB behind Hoyer)

2010 Draft
1-Devin McCourty-CB (Rotated between CB & S this year)
2-Rob Gronkowski-TE (Team had Crumpler at TE at the time, great pick)
2-Jermaine Cunningham-DE (Not on roster)
2-Brandon Spikes-ILB (Starter, solid pick)
3-Taylor Price-WR (Not on roster)
4-Aaron Hernandez-TE (great pick, teams questioned his size, only had Crumpler on roster)

2009 Draft
2-Patrick Chung-S (Good pick)
2-Ron Brace-DE (Gets less playing time than Brandon Deaderick, I believe they traded Seymour before this pick)
2-Darius Butler-CB (Not on roster)
2-Sebastion Vollmer-OT (Raw player who has struggled to adjust. Team drafted Solder who intially beat him out)
3-Brandon Tate-WR (Not on roster)
3-Tyrone McKenzie-OLB (not on roster)
4-Rich Ohrnberger-OT (IR)

2008 Draft
1-Jerod Mayo-ILB (great pick)
2-Terrence Wheatley-CB (not on roster)
3-Shawn Crable-OLB (not on roster)
3-Kevin O'Connell-QB (not on roster)
4-Jonathan Wilhite-CB (not on roster)

2007 Draft
1-Brandon Merriweather-S (not on roster)
4-Kareem Brown-DT (not on roster)

2006 Draft
1-Lawrence Maroney-RB (not on roster)
2-Chad Jackson-WR (not on roster)
3-David Thomas-TE (not on roster)
4-Garrett Mills-RB (not on roster)
4-Stephen Gostkowski-K (solid player. Vinatieri signed with Colts)

All I see is a team desperately trying to address the RB, WR, TE, OLB and Defensive Secondary over and over again without much success. You can argue BPA all you want, but teams that keep drafting the same positions due to previous picks busting does not scream BPA.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Point taken.

 

[Chopper0080]

While I knew that the Pats have been struggling recently in the draft, it is shocking to see that 15 of their 25 draft picks made in the first 4 rounds of the drafts (2006-2010) are not even on their roster anymore.

Once again, kudos to Belichick and Brady for keeping this team as competitive as it has been.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

While I knew that the Pats have been struggling recently in the draft, it is shocking to see that 15 of their 25 draft picks made in the first 4 rounds of the drafts (2006-2010) are not even on their roster anymore.

Once again, kudos to Belichick and Brady for keeping this team as competitive as it has been.

The secret to NE's next Super Bowl is getting Belichick out of the draft room..

 

[JeffGollin]

Trade back and stockpile picks. Veteran teams can do that.

NE has gotten rich doing this for years. Why stop?

 

[82CardsGrad]

OK, lets break this down by the top 4 rounds of draft 2011-2006...we will discuss success rate. bpa is arbitrary so well will focus on the fact that the same positions keep getting drafted.

2011 Draft
1-Nate Solder-OT (benched pre SB for Vollmer, drafted before team signed Light)
2-Ras I Dowling-CB (IR) (Drafted despite team drafting 4 CBs in previous 4 drafts, only 1 still on roster)
3-Shane Vreen-RB (couldn't beat out Kevin Faulk, team had only two backs on roster)
3-Steven Ridley-RB (couldn't beat out Kevin Faulk, team had only two backs on roster)
3-Ryan Mallett-QB (top talent, huge issues, #3 QB behind Hoyer)

2010 Draft
1-Devin McCourty-CB (Rotated between CB & S this year)
2-Rob Gronkowski-TE (Team had Crumpler at TE at the time, great pick)
2-Jermaine Cunningham-DE (Not on roster)
2-Brandon Spikes-ILB (Starter, solid pick)
3-Taylor Price-WR (Not on roster)
4-Aaron Hernandez-TE (great pick, teams questioned his size, only had Crumpler on roster)

2009 Draft
2-Patrick Chung-S (Good pick)
2-Ron Brace-DE (Gets less playing time than Brandon Deaderick, I believe they traded Seymour before this pick)
2-Darius Butler-CB (Not on roster)
2-Sebastion Vollmer-OT (Raw player who has struggled to adjust. Team drafted Solder who intially beat him out)
3-Brandon Tate-WR (Not on roster)
3-Tyrone McKenzie-OLB (not on roster)
4-Rich Ohrnberger-OT (IR)

2008 Draft
1-Jerod Mayo-ILB (great pick)
2-Terrence Wheatley-CB (not on roster)
3-Shawn Crable-OLB (not on roster)
3-Kevin O'Connell-QB (not on roster)
4-Jonathan Wilhite-CB (not on roster)

2007 Draft
1-Brandon Merriweather-S (not on roster)
4-Kareem Brown-DT (not on roster)

2006 Draft
1-Lawrence Maroney-RB (not on roster)
2-Chad Jackson-WR (not on roster)
3-David Thomas-TE (not on roster)
4-Garrett Mills-RB (not on roster)
4-Stephen Gostkowski-K (solid player. Vinatieri signed with Colts)

All I see is a team desperately trying to address the RB, WR, TE, OLB and Defensive Secondary over and over again without much success. You can argue BPA all you want, but teams that keep drafting the same positions due to previous picks busting does not scream BPA.

Ummm...

 

[Chopper0080]

The secret to NE's next Super Bowl is getting Belichick out of the draft room..

Not far off. Who knew Scott Pioli would be so missed?

 

[82CardsGrad]

Not far off. Who knew Scott Pioli would be so missed?

Pioli was there from '01 thru the '08 season... Nonetheless, it's hard to criticize there methodology when it comes to drafting when you consider their success over the past decade.
It's a very unique approach for sure, but, the Pats have been as close to dynasty as we will ever see again in our lifetimes.