The Rosen Problem

[Krangodnzr]

I started to move to ''on the fence" for drafting Kyler Murray.

I needed something to make me doubt him so I watched his plays against Alabama.

Watch it, and tell me that it doesn't make you doubt him.

Murray made a number of really bad throws even when he wasn't pressured.

He still put up a lot of yardage, but that's also a function of having a great team and great playcaller.

 

[TRW]

I am not sold on Josh Rosen at this point. Yes, he was put in a very difficult position last year but he really had some horrific mistakes of his own making in some games. Is he going to be "Pick Six" Bortles or "Mr. Average" Andy Dalton? That's his floor/ceiling as I see it right now. I hope he proves me wrong, if he stays.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Except he doesn't. He is really inaccurate. The numbers and the game film back it up.

He had a bad completion percentage even in a clean pocket. His decision making beyond questionable.

Ready for these advanced stats?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoseJo01.htm#all_passing_advanced

100 is league average.

Yards Per Attempt 72
Net Yards Per Attempt 67
Adjusted Yards Per Attempt 66
Completion Percentage 70
TD% 82
INT 80
Sack% 74
Rate 69

Every single measurable stat WELL below league average.

There is nothing to point to and say "Well look here is what he did well and that gives us hope"

QBR: 25.9 33rd in the league

What you aren't measuring is the effect of previous failure and poor playcalling.

It's not a secret that when a QB starts to feel pressure too much, they start to feel pressure that isn't there.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

How many times do you think our myriad of late round, took too early in the draft, and undrafted inexperienced WRs ran the right route or did anything to come back to help their QB under pressure (that drove me nuts, they would run some kind of route and then just stand there while Rosen was under duress just looking at him). You do not know the plays and the routes, so it's hard to say it's all on Rosen. I mean other than Fitz and Kirk who was still a rookie, our WRs where trash and seemed like our OL who had to play would not even be on some team's depth chart... then throw in Wilks and you really have the perfect storm

I am not saying "it's all on Rosen"

I am saying Rosen should have been good at something...anything...if he was an elite QB.

It's way more likely that his ceiling is a middle of the road Ryan Tannehill type than anything else right now.

 

[BW52]

I am certainly not relying on my fandom and bias.

That is literally all we have with Rosen. Fandom, Bias, and Hope.

That's exactly what you have .You obviously are not a Rosen fan.Thats okay.You obviously don`t feel there can/will be enough improvement to go forward with him.So no hope.Bias-you seem like you don`t feel he is worth trying to improve him.Just my takes on your takes.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

What you aren't measuring is the effect of previous failure and poor playcalling.

It's not a secret that when a QB starts to feel pressure too much, they start to feel pressure that isn't there.

Sure...the good ones overcome and the bad ones flame out spectacularly

 

[BW52]

I am not saying "it's all on Rosen"

I am saying Rosen should have been good at something...anything...if he was an elite QB.

It's way more likely that his ceiling is a middle of the road Ryan Tannehill type than anything else right now.

IMHO its unfair and premature to make a judgement on a rookie QB after just one partial seaon in very poor surroundings.

 

[BigRedRage]

To take a one year sample, of one of the worst teams ever fielded by one of the worst franchises ever created and judge everything based on that year is pure folley. Once he completes year two, I am full on ready to judge what his future potential will be.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

That's exactly what you have .You obviously are not a Rosen fan.Thats okay.You obviously don`t feel there can/will be enough improvement to go forward with him.So no hope.Bias-you seem like you don`t feel he is worth trying to improve him.Just my takes on your takes.

Well you would be completely wrong. I have his jersey. Up until I started looking at this I was 100% on Rosen's side.

I keep looking for any reason to stay there. There isn't any.

 

[BigRedRage]

There is no QB better than Rosen in this draft. You ride with him and if he is terrible next year, you look at a new one. No use judging it right now. If the team, coaching staff and etc believe in him. He deserves his shot.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I am not saying "it's all on Rosen"

I am saying Rosen should have been good at something...anything...if he was an elite QB.

It's way more likely that his ceiling is a middle of the road Ryan Tannehill type than anything else right now.

I saw some tight window throws which Tannehill could have never made and a lot of them which WRs dropped. I did mention bad route running or bad plays but those bad aspects did not even have a chance of redemption because our OL gave no time. If you look back at the tape, of all the games, I saw numerous times Rosen avoiding sacks in the pocket but he got sacked so many damn times that the times he got out of constant pressure gets ignored because everyone loves them some Murray potential. Honestly, I have no freaking idea of what his ceiling is because the coaching staff and talent around him took the floor right out from under him

 

[DVontel]

Damn you Kliff & your minute of boasting Kyler & OU back in October causing all of this.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Sure...the good ones overcome and the bad ones flame out spectacularly

And the young ones struggle at this... especially when facing historically inept coaching.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Well you would be completely wrong. I have his jersey. Up until I started looking at this I was 100% on Rosen's side.

I keep looking for any reason to stay there. There isn't any.

Murray Alabama tape.

 

[BW52]

Well you would be completely wrong. I have his jersey. Up until I started looking at this I was 100% on Rosen's side.

I keep looking for any reason to stay there. There isn't any.

I disagree completely.Abandoning Rosen without giving him a chance to succeed with at least a adequate situation is plain out foolish.I think you are wrong.

 

[iLLmatiC]

So the more I am forced to analyze Kyler Murray, the more I have to look at Rosen.

Do we have a franchise QB already?


Here is where he ranked last year. It's dreadful btw...

Kliff Kingsbury will have to be a miracle worker to get to league average.


https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/josh-rosen/

Josh's rankings last year:

28th in air yards
25th in pass attempt distance
23rd in money throws
19th in interceptable passes
16 in danger plays (where QB took unnecessary risks)
30 in expected pass TDs
36 in adjusted yards per attempt
36 in true completion percentage
36 in Play action passes
51(!!) in Red Zone completion
30 in Deep Ball percentage
22 in Pressured Completion Percentage
36 in Production Premium
35 in True Passer Rating
34 in Accuracy Rating

Not a single advanced stat above league average. Not a one.

The inaccuracy is staggering.

More like the Steve Wilk's problem.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Josh Rosen experienced 1.1 dropped passes per game.

Drew Brees experienced 1.6 dropped passes per game

Tom Brady 1.3 dropped passes per game

Patrick Mahomes 1.9 dropped passes per game.

I just picked 3 guys off the top of my head that had good seasons

Again, your bias makes you think Rosen had some difficulty that other QBs didn't overcome.

 

[Proximo]

If we knew Joey Bosa was the next LT, wouldn't it be an easy decision?

Welp, we don't know these things. So we can make an educated decision based on history and statistical trends.

Your right we don't - But it does not seem to stop people on this board being POSITIVE Bosa is can't miss, and that Murray is Dogshit.

 

[DVontel]

Josh Rosen experienced 1.1 dropped passes per game.

Drew Brees experienced 1.6 dropped passes per game

Tom Brady 1.3 dropped passes per game

Patrick Mahomes 1.9 dropped passes per game.

I just picked 3 guys off the top of my head that had good seasons

Again, your bias makes you think Rosen had some difficulty that other QBs didn't overcome.

I’m disappointed myself that Rosen didn’t play up to par with 2 HOFers & a MVP with a offensive savant.

 

[BW52]

Josh Rosen experienced 1.1 dropped passes per game.

Drew Brees experienced 1.6 dropped passes per game

Tom Brady 1.3 dropped passes per game

Patrick Mahomes 1.9 dropped passes per game.

I just picked 3 guys off the top of my head that had good seasons

Again, your
bias makes you think Rosen had some difficulty that other QBs didn't overcome.

Your bias is showing.
so who else had a offensive line that lost all 5 starters during the season and had to get street FAs to play? Who else had UDFAs as starting WRs after injuries?

 

[BurqueCardFan]

Last year shouldn't even come into play when evaluating Rosen. Between the crap coaching staff and OL/WR issues, last season was a throw away. I remember watching many games full of dropped passes and little to no help from his surrounding cast. I would judge him more on his pre-draft evaluation compared to this years crop. By all indications he was either in line or had a better draft grade than Murray. If that's the case, then it would be two steps backwards to use another first rounder on a QB.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I’m disappointed myself that Rosen didn’t play up to par with 2 HOFers & a MVP with a offensive savant.

You clearly missed the point.

Dropped passes happen to every QB. It's bad that Rosen had less dropped passes than most of the league and was still horribly inaccurate.

 

[cwamjn]

More like the Steve Wilk's problem.

That is impressive. Wilks was such a bad coach he made Rosen inaccurate at UCLA too

 

[Proximo]

Well you would be completely wrong. I have his jersey. Up until I started looking at this I was 100% on Rosen's side.

I keep looking for any reason to stay there. There isn't any.

I would not go that far.

His coaching and situation was so bad it is quite possible he did not even put forth full effort as the futility of the situation was made completely apparent.

I am not completely convinced he is beyond hope.

 

[BW52]

Your right we don't - But it does not seem to stop people on this board being POSITIVE Bosa is can't miss, and that Murray is Dogshit.

Bosa isn`t 5`10 trying to play QB in the NFL .Bosa also is the consensus top prospect.Nothing is a 100% sure thing.But expecting a 5`10 QB to come in to the NFL and be worthy of the #1 pick is a very longshot hope.