Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
If you play blackjack (or even if you don’t) when you’re dealt a blackjack (21) and the dealer has an ace showing you can take (win) even money and end the hand. If you decline and the dealer has 21 it’s a push (draw) and no money is won or lost. If the dealer has less than 21, you win 1.5 times your bet. Last night the Cards took even money. They went for the sure thing selection and made a trade. They gave up 5 years of control and settled for 2 years of certainty.
Why? Well first, because all the players likely to have a significant, immediate impact were gone. You could argue for Wyatt but he’d be something of a gamble to be high impact. Then there’s the Johnson mystery. I’ve have asked and so far, at least, there is no smoking gun. I’ll post more on Johnson separately. For the moment and using Occam’s Razor, I’m proceeding with the premise the Cards entered the draft fully intending to come out of round 1 with an immediate impact receiver. For my money only Olave, Wilson and maybe London fit that description. I’m quite sure they had the Brown option in their pocket all along, but if they saw that as their main intention they would have made the trade earlier. Perhaps they would have done so before the draft. Waiting might have meant the Ravens would get a better offer.
So, when their receiver targets were gone, there was possibly only one remaining issue, the third round pick. Frankly this selection made the trade even more appealing. As I noted during the draft, here in Nashville both of the old time gurus and the former full-time scout at this event, all liked the trade from the AZ side and hated it from the Ravens side.
What made this trade good? First Brown is a proven commodity. He’s not Hopkins and he drops some throws, but he’s productive. He’s a sure thing.
Second, he’s improved every year and plays on a team where he’s often going against the opponent’s top corner. He’ll be now playing in a passing oriented offense, surrounded by other threats.
Third, he’s a true deep threat. Every season he’s scored at least one long TD. He spreads the field creating opportunities for others. Getting multiple defenders to turn their backs should help the running game as well.
Fourth, Murray knows him. There’s no denying Murray doesn’t easily trust WRs. So, getting someone with whom Murray already has rapport is significant. This should pay immediate dividends. I’ve seen Murray criticized for orchestrating the trade. Frankly, every QB I’ve known had favorite targets. In this case there were so many reasons for making this trade, Murray was just a contributing factor.
Finally, there was the sandwich pick. Did you ever wonder why so many pre-draft article were called “The Top 150?” It’s because in the typical draft 150 would encompass all the immediately useful players. So pick 100 is not a throw in. It’s most often at least a useful role player or developmental prospect. Suppose you wanted a punter? You could take Matt Araiza, who averages over 51 yards a kick. Those Aussies have big legs, but if you want immediate productivity look at this stat line. 67 total punts: 46.0 yards per punt, 35 inside the 20 yard line, only 3 touchbacks and 30 fair catches (44.8%). That’s Jordan Stout from Penn State. Araiza frequently out-kicks his coverage. It’s just physics and also he has too many touchbacks. Need an RB? You’ve likely have either James Cook or Brian Robinson on the board. Then there’s Alontae Taylor is a corner with ballhawking potential. He’s raw but could develop some smooth. He would contribute immediately on special teams. Wyatt Davis offers a G with run blocking ability and is decent in pass protection. He’s a little still, but plays with good physicality. It’s easy to get lost at a weak program, especially when injured. Dayo Odeyingbo is an Edge with starter potential, but he’s a project. He didn’t get good college coaching IMO, but he’s got the raw ingredients. My point here is there are valuable players to be had at this stage in the draft. This is a useful pick.
In the end this trade does one more thing. It ends the discussion about whether Murray is the long term plan at QB. He is. Sure there’s still contracts to get done, but those are now formalities. This provides the long term stability this team has lacked. I still have concerns about some aspects of Murray’s contributions, but the Cards have moved past them and the rest of us must simply accept that reality.
Why? Well first, because all the players likely to have a significant, immediate impact were gone. You could argue for Wyatt but he’d be something of a gamble to be high impact. Then there’s the Johnson mystery. I’ve have asked and so far, at least, there is no smoking gun. I’ll post more on Johnson separately. For the moment and using Occam’s Razor, I’m proceeding with the premise the Cards entered the draft fully intending to come out of round 1 with an immediate impact receiver. For my money only Olave, Wilson and maybe London fit that description. I’m quite sure they had the Brown option in their pocket all along, but if they saw that as their main intention they would have made the trade earlier. Perhaps they would have done so before the draft. Waiting might have meant the Ravens would get a better offer.
So, when their receiver targets were gone, there was possibly only one remaining issue, the third round pick. Frankly this selection made the trade even more appealing. As I noted during the draft, here in Nashville both of the old time gurus and the former full-time scout at this event, all liked the trade from the AZ side and hated it from the Ravens side.
What made this trade good? First Brown is a proven commodity. He’s not Hopkins and he drops some throws, but he’s productive. He’s a sure thing.
Second, he’s improved every year and plays on a team where he’s often going against the opponent’s top corner. He’ll be now playing in a passing oriented offense, surrounded by other threats.
Third, he’s a true deep threat. Every season he’s scored at least one long TD. He spreads the field creating opportunities for others. Getting multiple defenders to turn their backs should help the running game as well.
Fourth, Murray knows him. There’s no denying Murray doesn’t easily trust WRs. So, getting someone with whom Murray already has rapport is significant. This should pay immediate dividends. I’ve seen Murray criticized for orchestrating the trade. Frankly, every QB I’ve known had favorite targets. In this case there were so many reasons for making this trade, Murray was just a contributing factor.
Finally, there was the sandwich pick. Did you ever wonder why so many pre-draft article were called “The Top 150?” It’s because in the typical draft 150 would encompass all the immediately useful players. So pick 100 is not a throw in. It’s most often at least a useful role player or developmental prospect. Suppose you wanted a punter? You could take Matt Araiza, who averages over 51 yards a kick. Those Aussies have big legs, but if you want immediate productivity look at this stat line. 67 total punts: 46.0 yards per punt, 35 inside the 20 yard line, only 3 touchbacks and 30 fair catches (44.8%). That’s Jordan Stout from Penn State. Araiza frequently out-kicks his coverage. It’s just physics and also he has too many touchbacks. Need an RB? You’ve likely have either James Cook or Brian Robinson on the board. Then there’s Alontae Taylor is a corner with ballhawking potential. He’s raw but could develop some smooth. He would contribute immediately on special teams. Wyatt Davis offers a G with run blocking ability and is decent in pass protection. He’s a little still, but plays with good physicality. It’s easy to get lost at a weak program, especially when injured. Dayo Odeyingbo is an Edge with starter potential, but he’s a project. He didn’t get good college coaching IMO, but he’s got the raw ingredients. My point here is there are valuable players to be had at this stage in the draft. This is a useful pick.
In the end this trade does one more thing. It ends the discussion about whether Murray is the long term plan at QB. He is. Sure there’s still contracts to get done, but those are now formalities. This provides the long term stability this team has lacked. I still have concerns about some aspects of Murray’s contributions, but the Cards have moved past them and the rest of us must simply accept that reality.
