"The Trade"

[D-Dogg]

There is a bit of discussion about the trade down in the second round, where we dropped 8 spots and grabbed another 3rd rounder (79). We then traded back on that third rounder (to 82) and added a 6th (191).

On the board was KoolAid, Cooper, JPJ, and Lassiter.

To evaluate this trade, IMO, you can't just look at the board and names in a vacuum. In theory, we flipped 35 for 43, 82, and 191. We moved back 8 spots and grabbed two more picks.

First, the pick at 43. MadMax seems like he's custom fit for what JG wants to do. We can argue the day is long whether he is better than the other 3 CB (CB/Safety) who went before him. But it does seem the FO was comfortable moving back and grabbing him.

At 82 we pick up the absolute best blocking TE in the draft in Tip Reisman. Was it too early? Maybe. Is he a gamer? Yes, and scouts and media love the pick. He will start in 12 package, block his ass off, and maybe catch a few balls. Plus, he lets TM run the Kelce role as basically a dedicated WR.

At 191, we add Tejhaun Palmer, a big body WR that gives depth and speed, especially with Wilson having injury history. A bit of a project, but at 191 he's a pretty solid pick.

So, end of the day, we "lose out" on a few name recognition CB (most with injury or fit issues) and grab a guy who is a solid cover CB, plus the best blocking TE and an intriguing depth WR. For 8 spots.

Do you really think any of the following statements are not true?

Max + Tip + Palmer > Cooper
Max + Tip + Palmer > Kool-aid
Max + Tip + Palmer > Lassiter
Max + Tip + Palmer > JPJ

Only the latter do I personally entertain, but CB was such a HUGE need for us I still think it's also true.

This trade, IMO, was astute, and made us a whole lot better than sticking and picking (where they very well may have still selected Max, anyway).

Thoughts?

 

[BritCard]

Only time will tell.

There's a non minor chance that one or more of the guys we passed up will outweigh the talent of the 3 players we took.

 

[Dback Jon]

I think they wanted Max over the other CB’s and were able to pick him and get more picks

 

[Garthshort]

D-Dog, nice breakdown of the trade and Brit's post let's us know that the answer will come in TIME. As a fan with no real knowledge of how good the guys we passed on are, I was hoping for Cooper or Kool Aid, but I now feel way better about Mad Max. And going into the Draft I felt good about Monti, and came out of it feeling even better.

 

[CardNots]

D-Dog, nice breakdown of the trade and Brit's post let's us know that the answer will come in TIME. As a fan with no real knowledge of how good the guys we passed on are, I was hoping for Cooper or Kool Aid, but I now feel way better about Mad Max. And going into the Draft I felt good about Monti, and came out of it feeling even better.

Summed up my feelings perfectly!

 

[GimmedaBall]

Like your analysis D-Dogg on why the trade downs were good. Here's my take.

My first reaction to the trade-downs: Are we giving away our advantage earned with our poor record to have the pick of the better prospects? The whole parity concept is based on giving the poor teams an earlier choice to improve their team.

I wanted the Cards to use their accumulation of picks to move up in either the 1st or 2nd and get two higher-rated CBs to at least complete that position group going forward. My equations would have been:

Is Q. Mitchell CB taken at 22 by the Eagles > our picks surrendered in a trade?

Is Terrion Arnold CB taken at 24 by the Lions > our picks surrendered in a trade?

I haven't worked out the point values needed to make those trades but I would have considered moving 2025 assets to get those two guys. I can't remember the last time we had CB1a and CB1b on the field at the same time. We could have solidified our DB room for years to come with those two.

Instead, we accumulate lower-round picks and add a handful of players. Appreciate that once into the 2nd round, we were already into 'might become a starter territory.'

Of course, the Cards FO has much greater insight into player eval than I do. They got all the background, made the interviews, and anticipated how the guys they wanted fit the scheme. But also realize that about 20% of the guys in the league starred as UDFA. So, even the high-powered analysis can fail.

One key thing I can see to justify the repeated trade-downs is the need to reload the ST personnel to accommodate the new kick-off rule. That single ST play has the potential to alter field position and also be a one-play scoring drive. I believe it was Melton who stated that he was game to play ST and considered it a 'football play.' Now, if that applies to the other guys taken with our trade-downs, we may have something. Let's see how many stick on the 53 man roster and show up on kick-offs.

I would still rather have CBs Mitchell and Arnold over the accumulated lower-round picks. LOL.

 

[football karma]

when the actual draft happens, we see how the NFL values certain prospects very differently than media

I dont think its a stretch to think that if the media got Cooper DeJean's pre draft ranking wrong by 20 spots, maybe it got Max Melton's ranking wrong by 20 spots

 

[Tacticool Nerd]

If I remember right. I thought I saw Harry say that Melton may end up being a better pure CB than Kool-Aid and Cooper.

While there was some big name players there when we traded I think it worked out for us.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I think they wanted Max over the other CB’s and were able to pick him and get more picks

If you listen to the post day two presser, Monti absolutely intimated that.

Max Melton is an absolute dog. It was cool to see what Saban thought about him.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

There is a bit of discussion about the trade down in the second round, where we dropped 8 spots and grabbed another 3rd rounder (79). We then traded back on that third rounder (to 82) and added a 6th (191).

On the board was KoolAid, Cooper, JPJ, and Lassiter.

To evaluate this trade, IMO, you can't just look at the board and names in a vacuum. In theory, we flipped 35 for 43, 82, and 191. We moved back 8 spots and grabbed two more picks.

First, the pick at 43. MadMax seems like he's custom fit for what JG wants to do. We can argue the day is long whether he is better than the other 3 CB (CB/Safety) who went before him. But it does seem the FO was comfortable moving back and grabbing him.

At 82 we pick up the absolute best blocking TE in the draft in Tip Reisman. Was it too early? Maybe. Is he a gamer? Yes, and scouts and media love the pick. He will start in 12 package, block his ass off, and maybe catch a few balls. Plus, he lets TM run the Kelce role as basically a dedicated WR.

At 191, we add Tejhaun Palmer, a big body WR that gives depth and speed, especially with Wilson having injury history. A bit of a project, but at 191 he's a pretty solid pick.

So, end of the day, we "lose out" on a few name recognition CB (most with injury or fit issues) and grab a guy who is a solid cover CB, plus the best blocking TE and an intriguing depth WR. For 8 spots.

Do you really think any of the following statements are not true?

Max + Tip + Palmer > Cooper
Max + Tip + Palmer > Kool-aid
Max + Tip + Palmer > Lassiter
Max + Tip + Palmer > JPJ

Only the latter do I personally entertain, but CB was such a HUGE need for us I still think it's also true.

This trade, IMO, was astute, and made us a whole lot better than sticking and picking (where they very well may have still selected Max, anyway).

Thoughts?

Glad you memorialized this. It’s the only true way to measure whether it ultimates nets as a good deal or not. Will be interesting to see it play out.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I think they wanted Max over the other CB’s and were able to pick him and get more picks

We will likely never really know this. If true the trade is a winner bc they got him and netted more. If not true the balance of what the 3 verses who else they could’ve taken will tell the tale of good trade or bad.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

If you listen to the post day two presser, Monti absolutely intimated that.

Max Melton is an absolute dog. It was cool to see what Saban thought about him.

Meh every gm says that about every trade back pick. Could be true could be bs. If someone with fore knowledge and nothing to gain confirmed it I’d buy it.

 

[BirdGangThing]

word

 

[MadCardDisease]

I think it all comes down to how they plan to use this new blocking TE. Will he see a bunch of snaps or will it be more of a "Just the Tip" kind of usage. @Mulli

 

[Krangodnzr]

Meh every gm says that about every trade back pick. Could be true could be bs. If someone with fore knowledge and nothing to gain confirmed it I’d buy it.

I do.

McKinstry had a Jones fracture. Those are notoriously bad fractures because they often break again. It's one of the reasons Johnny Newton fell as well.

DeJean has significant question marks about whether he can play CB because he has really stiff hips. Not a lot of guys with stuff hips end up being good corners. I probably would have gambled on DeJean but I can see why NFL people wouldn't.

And Lassiter is SLOW. I can't remember which NFL player basically said that a wide receiver can be slower than average because he can run good routes and get open, but a slow corner back has big make up speed issues.

Does Melton have any of these question marks?

 

[D-Dogg]

I do.

McKinstry had a Jones fracture. Those are notoriously bad fractures because they often break again. It's one of the reasons Johnny Newton fell as well.

DeJean has significant question marks about whether he can play CB because he has really stiff hips. Not a lot of guys with stuff hips end up being good corners. I probably would have gambled on DeJean but I can see why NFL people wouldn't.

And Lassiter is SLOW. I can't remember which NFL player basically said that a wide receiver can be slower than average because he can run good routes and get open, but a slow corner back has big make up speed issues.

Does Melton have any of these question marks?

Wasn't it Melton who said he "had a feeling" he'd be a Cardinal before the draft?

 

[Krangodnzr]

He said that was that was the team he felt he was going to.

I really like, I think he has a good chance to be a solid starter.

Wasn't it Melton who said he "had a feeling" he'd be a Cardinal before the draft?

 

[QuebecCard]

If you listen to the post day two presser, Monti absolutely intimated that.

Max Melton is an absolute dog. It was cool to see what Saban thought about him.

And what MHJ had to say was just as 'cool. '

 

[Goodyear Card]

All I know is that 3 GMs thought they picked a better CB than Melton. It looks like we got stuck with the leftovers. We should have taken our best CB at 35. In 3 years, we will know who is best.

 

[Goldfield]

All I can say is they knew the risk of trading back and still did it. So either Melton was the guy all along, or they were all very similarly graded so it was worth the risk.

 

[football karma]

Meh every gm says that about every trade back pick. Could be true could be bs. If someone with fore knowledge and nothing to gain confirmed it I’d buy it.

I thought what Monti said was interesting:

"If you have 5 players at a spot that you like, and you move down 8 spots, you feel pretty good about your chances"

 

[Stout]

All I can say is they knew the risk of trading back and still did it. So either Melton was the guy all along, or they were all very similarly graded so it was worth the risk.

...Or Monti bet wrong. Let's hope it's the former.

 

[MadCardDisease]

There is a bit of discussion about the trade down in the second round, where we dropped 8 spots and grabbed another 3rd rounder (79). We then traded back on that third rounder (to 82) and added a 6th (191).



Thoughts?

You forgot to mention as a part of the trade with the Falcons that the Cardinals also sent their 6th round pick (#186) as well.

So RB Jase McClellan from Alabama will forever be tied to Max Melton. #keepthistraderelevant

 

[MadCardDisease]

Meh every gm says that about every trade back pick. Could be true could be bs. If someone with fore knowledge and nothing to gain confirmed it I’d buy it.

I mentioned this before the start of Day 2 but I felt there was a large group of players who had very similar grades and that trading back would be the best option.

Here is what Monti said about the trade:

"We had offers (at 35) to drop back a couple spots, we had offers to drop back a lot more than we did, and really it's a numbers game at that point," Ossenfort said. "There was a group of players we were comfortable picking at 35, and we count numbers, how far can we get back? If it's a situation where we like five players and we drop eight spots, chances are one of those guys is going to make it."

 

[gmabel830]

I do.

McKinstry had a Jones fracture. Those are notoriously bad fractures because they often break again. It's one of the reasons Johnny Newton fell as well.

DeJean has significant question marks about whether he can play CB because he has really stiff hips. Not a lot of guys with stuff hips end up being good corners. I probably would have gambled on DeJean but I can see why NFL people wouldn't.

And Lassiter is SLOW. I can't remember which NFL player basically said that a wide receiver can be slower than average because he can run good routes and get open, but a slow corner back has big make up speed issues.

Does Melton have any of these question marks?

So then why did almost every reputable draft ranking have all three of these players rated above Melton despite all of these factors?