The Trading Down Strategy

[football karma]

what i like about Horn:

i think you will get a CB with a surly competitiveness -- attitude. i think you get a CB who WRs will hate to go against-- regardless of what that WRs numbers end up being

what i like about Newsome:

i think he will be a better technical CB than Horn

 

[az jam]

I think Vance will like Horn's aggressiveness and versatility. I also think Farley the most recent back surgery for Farley will potentially land him still on the board. Even so, we may have all 3 staring us in the face when picking.

Farley's just announced back surgery will certainly raise questions plus he opted out in 2020. I agree with you that he most likely will be on the Board when we pick. Chopper, you really seem to be a good judge of college talent for the draft, should the Cards take Farley if there at 16?? or Horn?? Put on your GM Cards hat.

 

[Veer]

Najee Harris will be our pick and I'd rather not gamble on trading back. Edmonds is a good complementary change of pace. Harris is the tough hammer we need, our own Derrick Henry. Meshes perfectly with Kyler. This would be a nightmare to defend. RB especially from big schools can start in a pinch and make immediate impact. This is what Keim's offeseason was all about. And it's not like Harris is a reach - he is a truly great RB. Right now I couldn't name 10 NFL RBs I'd like over him. He will be a top 3 rusher soon.

 

[Chopper0080]

How versatile is Horn really though? He’s a stud in press-man, but his game is just begging for flags thrown early in his career. He’s also awkward in off-man & zone. I think he’s suited to guard the bigger, but slower WRs as opposed to the shifty & quick WRs. Greg can play all 3 at a high level, but durability is a concern.

A couple notes when comparing Newsome and Horn.

1- I really like both so my critique is just to try and separate the two.

2- People speak about Horn's potential to get penalties in the NFL game, but Newsome was penalized more heavily in the college game so I feel it is an issue for both.

3- Newsome is more polished in off-man coverage at this point than Horn, but press coverage is a more difficult skill to master IMO. A frustrating part of Peterson's game last year was his off-man coverage and how the teams in our division took advantage of the space it created. Horn is more comfortable and polished at playing tighter from what I have seen.

4- I don't have a great gauge for how they compare athletically. Both seem to be able to hang in tough divisions fine. Pro days may help with that.

5- I like Jaycee Horn's 30 games played in college. Newsome has 17. Farley has 23. Surtain has 40. I think his experience matters.

 

[Chopper0080]

Farley's just announced back surgery will certainly raise questions plus he opted out in 2020. I agree with you that he most likely will be on the Board when we pick. Chopper, you really seem to be a good judge of college talent for the draft, should the Cards take Farley if there at 16?? or Horn?? Put on your GM Cards hat.

I think the Cardinals need to hit on some doubles in the draft. What I mean by that is that I am willing to take a less risky player in lieu of a closely graded one who may not have as high of a ceiling. That would lead me to selecting Jaycee Horn.

 

[Chopper0080]

IMO you are correct he will encounter some officials who will aggressively flag his style of play.

How he competes reminds me of Richard Sherman which I actually like.

 

[Chopper0080]

Newsome = Darius Slay
Horn = Carlton Davis

I think Horn is a lot like Marcus Peters. Physical and aggressive. Horn didn't have the college Int production that Peters did, but that would be my comp.

 

[Chopper0080]

I’ll say this.

I’ll be okay with JaVonte Williams in the 2nd if we get Greg Newsome in the 1st.

I have resigned myself to this being a very likely outcome.

 

[DVontel]

I think Horn is a lot like Marcus Peters. Physical and aggressive. Horn didn't have the college Int production that Peters did, but that would be my comp.

But see, Peters doesn’t fit in every scheme. He didn’t fit with the Rams & their heavy press-man scheme at the time. Same with the Chiefs. He’s scheme-specific, like Horn. While Newsome can play in multiple. I’m trusting Newsome to contain the Diggs, Hills, Ridleys, Jeffersons, Jeudys & all these other quick twitch WRs before Horn.

 

[Chopper0080]

But see, Peters doesn’t fit in every scheme. He didn’t fit with the Rams & their heavy press-man scheme at the time. Same with the Chiefs. He’s scheme-specific, like Horn. While Newsome can play in multiple. I’m trusting Newsome to contain the Diggs, Hills, Ridleys, Jeffersons, Jeudys & all these other quick twitch WRs before Horn.

We are going to disagree on Peters. I feel his skills fit with both the Chiefs and Rams, but his personality did not.

And regarding Horn vs Newsome. In a division with Kupp, Woods, Metcalf, Deebo and Aiyuk...I want the more physical press man CB than the off-man CB. With all the smoke routes, bubble-screens, slants and crossers I want a player who is comfortable taking away the space those routes need.

 

[Chopper0080]

A name that has gotten a bit lost but he just put up some nice numbers at his proday is Paulson Adebo out of Stanford. He doesn't have much recent tape, but he has nice skills and would be a nice 2nd or 3rd round player. (I mention the 3rd round in case there is a trade back)

 

[DVontel]

We are going to disagree on Peters. I feel his skills fit with both the Chiefs and Rams, but his personality did not.

And regarding Horn vs Newsome. In a division with Kupp, Woods, Metcalf, Deebo and Aiyuk...I want the more physical press man CB than the off-man CB. With all the smoke routes, bubble-screens, slants and crossers I want a player who is comfortable taking away the space those routes need.

Maybe with the Chiefs, but I guarantee if you go to a Rams board & ask why the Rams traded him, it’s because he didn’t fit & was getting burnt relentlessly.


I think the only WR you named that could matchup well with is Aiyuk since he’s the worst route runner here. I can see Kupp, Deebo, & Woods draw flags all day with their IQ & great route technique.

Funny thing is, Newsome is a way better tackler than Horn. Horn is almost Peterson-like when it comes to tackling despite being billed as a “dog/physical”. Newsome & Byron Murphy are so much alike in the regard that teams wouldn’t call WR screens on us like that anymore.


I like Horn, but I think the game today is way more suited for Newsome’s style than it is Horn’s. It would be different if it was 15-20 years ago.

 

[DVontel]

A name that has gotten a bit lost but he just put up some nice numbers at his proday is Paulson Adebo out of Stanford. He doesn't have much recent tape, but he has nice skills and would be a nice 2nd or 3rd round player. (I mention the 3rd round in case there is a trade back)

Even more scheme specific than Horn. Think he would only thrive in Zone.

 

[Chopper0080]

Maybe with the Chiefs, but I guarantee if you go to a Rams board & ask why the Rams traded him, it’s because he didn’t fit & was getting burnt relentlessly.


I think the only WR you named that could matchup well with is Aiyuk since he’s the worst route runner here. I can see Kupp, Deebo, & Woods draw flags all day with their IQ & great route technique.

Funny thing is, Newsome is a way better tackler than Horn. Horn is almost Peterson-like when it comes to tackling despite being billed as a “dog/physical”. Newsome & Byron Murphy are so much alike in the regard that teams wouldn’t call WR screens on us like that anymore.


I like Horn, but I think the game today is way more suited for Newsome’s style than it is Horn’s. It would be different if it was 15-20 years ago.

Man. I remember him playing vs Alabama and filling the hole on Najae Harris. And I think it might have been against auburn, but there was a play where Horn was outside vs trips, the inside WR ran a flare screen, and Horn floored the WR trying to block him and then made the tackle. I just don't feel like that level of aggressiveness is similar to Peterson's. To be fair, I mostly watched South Carolina when they were playing against better teams, but I never left thinking he wasn't a dog. His play-style is what I like most about him. I am curious where you see him not reflecting that.

 

[Chopper0080]

Even more scheme specific than Horn. Think he would only thrive in Zone.

I agree that he is more of a zone CB but he has the length and smarts to compete in off-man. I am struggling when looking at CB options in rounds 2 (late)-5 to find guys who work with our current personnel. Trill Williams is interesting. Adebo. I like Robert Rochell but he might be more of a 4 - 5 guy. I love the athletic profile of Tyson Campbell but he just doesn't seem to make plays. Robinson, Molden and Wade are all slot CBs IMO and I still Murphy moving from outside to inside in those situations. Ambry Thomas and Kelvin Joseph are nice players but Joseph is very inconsistent and seems to have the LSU attitude without the production. I like Samuel Jr. but I don't know that he makes it to us in round 2 and I am not sure of his top end speed.

 

[Chopper0080]

I found this interesting...

"Howard's feast or famine playing style makes for very uneven tape and teams will have to weigh his ball production against his pass interference issues. Howard has the size and short area quickness to operate from press coverage, but might need safety help his way while he is weaned from his grabby, collegiate style of coverage. Howard has starter's potential, but must improve his technique and step up his run support to be successful in the league."

Scouting report for Xavien Howard who the Dolphins drafted the year Vance took over the DC job. What I find interesting is that Vance was comfortable with with "grabby" traits.

Highlights that neither the penalties for Newsome nor the "grabby" designation of Horn should put off Vance when looking at these guys.

 

[DVontel]

Man. I remember him playing vs Alabama and filling the hole on Najae Harris. And I think it might have been against auburn, but there was a play where Horn was outside vs trips, the inside WR ran a flare screen, and Horn floored the WR trying to block him and then made the tackle. I just don't feel like that level of aggressiveness is similar to Peterson's. To be fair, I mostly watched South Carolina when they were playing against better teams, but I never left thinking he wasn't a dog. His play-style is what I like most about him. I am curious where you see him not reflecting that.

He did make a few good tackling plays, but that’s it, a few. I just noticed watching him that he seems to hesitate when it’s a 1v1 even if it has the angle. Can be coached up? Sure, but I have my doubts.


I love his mentality, don’t get me wrong, but his play style is not gonna be favorable with how CBs are called these days. He wins if he gets your hands on you, but if he doesn’t, it’s pretty much game over. He doesn’t have the hip fluidity that Newsome has to rebound.

 

[DVontel]

I found this interesting...

"Howard's feast or famine playing style makes for very uneven tape and teams will have to weigh his ball production against his pass interference issues. Howard has the size and short area quickness to operate from press coverage, but might need safety help his way while he is weaned from his grabby, collegiate style of coverage. Howard has starter's potential, but must improve his technique and step up his run support to be successful in the league."

Scouting report for Xavien Howard who the Dolphins drafted the year Vance took over the DC job. What I find interesting is that Vance was comfortable with with "grabby" traits.

Highlights that neither the penalties for Newsome nor the "grabby" designation of Horn should put off Vance when looking at these guys.

Xavien only played under Vance for 1 year, so we really can’t say Vance fixed or developed him or anything like that.

 

[Chopper0080]

Xavien only played under Vance for 1 year, so we really can’t say Vance fixed or developed him or anything like that.

My point was that he was comfortable with those concerns when the Dolphins traded up for Howard. He did not see those as deal breakers.

 

[DVontel]

My point was that he was comfortable with those concerns when the Dolphins traded up for Howard. He did not see those as deal breakers.

I guess, but at this rate, I don’t think he’ll even fall to us anymore with Farley’s back concern. He’s probably gonna go to SF.

 

[Chopper0080]

He did make a few good tackling plays, but that’s it, a few. I just noticed watching him that he seems to hesitate when it’s a 1v1 even if it has the angle. Can be coached up? Sure, but I have my doubts.


I love his mentality, don’t get me wrong, but his play style is not gonna be favorable with how CBs are called these days. He wins if he gets your hands on you, but if he doesn’t, it’s pretty much game over. He doesn’t have the hip fluidity that Newsome has to rebound.

How do you feel Jaycee horn compares to Marlon Humphrey?

EDIT: and does Pat Surtain give you Byron Jones vibes?

 

[Chopper0080]

I guess, but at this rate, I don’t think he’ll even fall to us anymore with Farley’s back concern. He’s probably gonna go to SF.

I think it applies to Newsome as well.

 

[DVontel]

How do you feel Jaycee horn compares to Marlon Humphrey?

EDIT: and does Pat Surtain give you Byron Jones vibes?

Marlon was a little bit more raw technique wise in press, but had a higher athletic ceiling while already being better in zone.


Think Pat is more athletic & instinctive than Byron. Neither aren’t scared to lay the wood though.

 

[juza76]

Marlon was a little bit more raw technique wise in press, but had a higher athletic ceiling while already being better in zone.


Think Pat is more athletic & instinctive than Byron. Neither aren’t scared to lay the wood though.

Horn just put a 41.5 vertical and 11.1 broad jump

Marlon in 2017 vertical n/p 10.5 broad jump 4. 42 40yards

Athletically don't know if he is less gifted

Actually he ran a 4.37 and 4.39

 

[cardpa]

I ran a simulated draft and made 4 trades. two were offers I accepted and two I offered that were accepted. Here are the results. I wanted to grab a CB early and then fill the TE spot followed by getting a RB. After that I wanted to find an ILB and another CB to develop. Finally I wanted to fill the needs at P and PK. I traded down to later in the first (this was one of the trades offered to me) and then traded up in the second ( my offer). Traded down (another trade offered to me) and then traded up (my offer) to grab the special team guys. When it all ended I did trade away the 2022 2nd round pick and picked up a 4th round 2022 pick.

Here is the link to the draft simulator I used. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

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