The Value of Losing

[Harry]

Nobody likes to lose. You’ve all heard winning isn’t everything; it’s the only thing. Years ago a coach told me, teams learn more from losing than winning. This scenario is especially valuable if the losses are close losses. By this standard the Cards should have learned much this season. I hope one of the things they’ve learned is that little things lose close games. A dropped pass, a careless penalty or a zone defender who responds too slowly can be the difference between a playoff participating team and a group of mere observers.

This is the Patriot’s secret; they rarely give games away. They don’t beat themselves. The Cards lack that level of self-discipline. Hopefully just experience will provide some of the needed improvement. Then better personnel can likely do the rest. Amazingly what separates the top teams from the mediocre ones is typically just a few plays. Especially on offense this team is close to good enough to win. Their future will turn on execution. That reality can only be produced by time.

 

[JeffGollin]

Some might say that you learn from winning due to a unique dynamic; namely - members of losing teams are often in a state of denial (because they're on the defensive about what they did wrong to cost them the game). Whereas members of winning teams are more receptive to criticism (because - regardless of the mistakes they made - it didn't cost them the football game).

 

[Finito]

You learn from both but you will definitely see who someone is when the chips are down.

the reality is if you expected this team to go from almost historically bad to the playoffs in an offseason your just kidding yourself.

the losses last year were bad they were filled with a hopeless feeling pretty much setting a record for 3 and outs. This year we are an exciting football team and have been in pretty much every game and only a handful of plays from having a few more wins on our record.

I don’t think we’re far at all. The 3 most important positions in football are QB, LT and a dominate pass rusher and we look set at all 3 a year and a half into a full rebuild.

 

[Russ Smith]

People make fun of it on this board because Whiz abused it but if I were a coach the one thing I'd REALLY stress, football or basketball it's the same, is trust the system trust your teammates. So often big plays are the result of one guy blowing the assignment he had outside contain but gave it up trying to get a big play. When I watch the Pats, or yesterday SF one of the things you see week after week is how disciplined they are in their assignments. If you miss a block and get Brady hit, you have guys in your face in the huddle(including Brady). I recall reading how after last week there were people lecturing Bosa about getting faked out on the Murray TD run, if you just hold your ground there he doesn't score, don't be a hero. Here's the defensive ROY and a guy in the hunt for DPOY and he makes a mistake and his teammates get all over him because it's a mistake of trying to be a hero.

So common in basketball too where bad shot hero ball turns a 3 point game into an 11 point loss in the last minute.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Many of the greats toiled in adversity before growing to succeed. Aikman, Brees, Manning, etc. Right now our pick is top 8 IIRC. I actually think we may be able to get to 6 if things fall right.

First thing: We need Detroit to win on Thursday.

I'm guessing that the bottom 4 will remain there: Cincy, Miami, NYG, Skins.

Denver has the Chargers & Lions at home.
Detroit has the Bucs and Bears (thurs) at home and the Broncos on the road.
Jets have Miami and Pittsburgh at home.
Atlanta has the Panthers, & Jags at home & Bucs on the road.

All of this leads me to believe 4 wins gets pick 5, and 5 wins has us picking 6 to 8.

I think we end up with pick 6 to 8.

The Giants & Skins will be getting Young & Jeudy IMO.

 

[Zeno]

Just to piggyback off Dr. Jones, he is correct according to Tankathon we are currently #8

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

 

[kerouac9]

We’re 3-3-1 in games this season decided by 7 points or less. We’ve won 0 games by more than 7 points.

It should be as concerning that we could just barely put away Cincy— probably more so. There’s no evidence that teams can consistently become good at winning one-score games. Good teams just put bad teams in the garbage can.

Denver won a game 16-0
The Jets just beat Oakland by 30

 

[Dr. Jones]

We’re 3-3-1 in games this season decided by 7 points or less. We’ve won 0 games by more than 7 points.

It should be as concerning that we could just barely put away Cincy— probably more so. There’s no evidence that teams can consistently become good at winning one-score games. Good teams just put bad teams in the garbage can.

Denver won a game 16-0
The Jets just beat Oakland by 30

I'm not sure there is evidence either way regarding one score wins. That makes me think that regression towards the mean is more appropriate except for the most extreme cases like Cincy or New England.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Just to piggyback off Dr. Jones, he is correct according to Tankathon we are currently #8

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

Cincy, Miami - Prob QB's. Tua, Burrow, Herbert
NYG, Wash - Probably Young & Jeudy


If tankathon is right and we get Jeudy....... I may crap my pants on draft night for the second straight year. I don't think there is any way he gets past #5 but what do I know. Thomas, Wirfs, Simmons, Okudah, Brown, or Kinlaw are all on the table at this point.

P.S. I absolutely love Henry Ruggs.

 

[kerouac9]

I'm not sure there is evidence either way regarding one score wins. That makes me think that regression towards the mean is more appropriate except for the most extreme cases like Cincy or New England.

New England is 3-0 this season in games decided by a TD or less, but they're 7-1 in the rest. Good teams don't have to sweat out close games against inferior opponents.

They were 3-2 last year in one-score games.

 

[Dr. Jones]

New England is 3-0 this season in games decided by a TD or less, but they're 7-1 in the rest. Good teams don't have to sweat out close games against inferior opponents.

They do when they play good teams. NE doesn't do that very often.

Ravens, Eagles, Bills & Cowboys are the only playoff teams they have played so far.


Ravens - 17 pt loss
Bills - 6pt win
Eagles - 7pt win
Cowboys - 4pt win.

So the good teams play them close and they have come out ahead so far. More data to come.

 

[kerouac9]

They do when they play good teams. NE doesn't do that very often.

Yes. But they don't have to sweat out games against the Cincy Bengals.

 

[Dr. Jones]

NE in 2018

Yes. But they don't have to sweat out games against the Cincy Bengals.

true

 

[football karma]

We’re 3-3-1 in games this season decided by 7 points or less. We’ve won 0 games by more than 7 points.

It should be as concerning that we could just barely put away Cincy— probably more so. There’s no evidence that teams can consistently become good at winning one-score games. Good teams just put bad teams in the garbage can.

Denver won a game 16-0
The Jets just beat Oakland by 30

if there is a next step for this team, its putting games away

vs Cincy, they were up 23-9 with 7 minutes left in the game.
vs. Atlanta, they were up 27-13 with 5 minutes left in 3rd quarter
vs NYG, they were up 24-14 with 13 minutes left in the game

 

[Finito]

New England is 3-0 this season in games decided by a TD or less, but they're 7-1 in the rest. Good teams don't have to sweat out close games against inferior opponents.


They were 3-2 last year in one-score games.

god this is laughable.

New England has 6 championships so I mean how come we don’t have 6 championships? I mean all teams and situations are the same right. If one team does it it must be easy right, just do what they do. Draft the best QB of all time in the 6th round and have him marry a supermodel who is super rich so he keeps taking team friendly deal then go and team him up with the greatest coach of all time.


Wonder why anyone loses at all in the NFL. Why doesn’t everyone just do what the Patriots do.

 

[Chopper0080]

Yes. But they don't have to sweat out games against the Cincy Bengals.

No, but they also do not have a rookie QB and a terrible defense. In my mind the reason we are in close games or blowouts going to the other team is because our defense is trash and our offense isn't good enough to score at will. So, in games we score...the other teams score just as much. In games where we struggle to score, the other team pulls away.

It is the main reason I think upgrading our offensive line and our defense is the best option for next year. Being able to give Kyler time and holding opposing offenses is our easiest path to becoming a solid team. We could definitely go the Chiefs route of winning shootouts, but I think that is riskier as it puts more pressure on a young QB.

 

[GatorAZ]

Cincy, Miami - Prob QB's. Tua, Burrow, Herbert
NYG, Wash - Probably Young & Jeudy


If tankathon is right and we get Jeudy....... I may crap my pants on draft night for the second straight year. I don't think there is any way he gets past #5 but what do I know. Thomas, Wirfs, Simmons, Okudah, Brown, or Kinlaw are all on the table at this point.

P.S. I absolutely love Henry Ruggs.

If some idiot team takes Herbert that high and pushes down Lamb/Juedy to us I could live taking a WR there. Otherwise we MUST build the trenches or we’ll be the 2012-17’ Colts all over again.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Nobody likes to lose. You’ve all heard winning isn’t everything; it’s the only thing. Years ago a coach told me, teams learn more from losing than winning. This scenario is especially valuable if the losses are close losses. By this standard the Cards should have learned much this season. I hope one of the things they’ve learned is that little things lose close games. A dropped pass, a careless penalty or a zone defender who responds too slowly can be the difference between a playoff participating team and a group of mere observers.

This is the Patriot’s secret; they rarely give games away. They don’t beat themselves. The Cards lack that level of self-discipline. Hopefully just experience will provide some of the needed improvement. Then better personnel can likely do the rest. Amazingly what separates the top teams from the mediocre ones is typically just a few plays. Especially on offense this team is close to good enough to win. Their future will turn on execution. That reality can only be produced by time.

Losing builds character, but just as long as your are not content with it.

They say all things in moderation, including winning.

Way too many people are out of balance, and I find it is because they do not know how "to lose & learn".

I'd rather by "enjoying" than "winning".

Any way, enough philosophy.

The NFL without a doubt, the most fickle of mistresses.

The year the Giants won the Superbowl over the undefeated Patriots, they should have never gotten to the playoff.

The Giants were playing the Cardinals, Victor Cruz falls down face first, justs throw the ball out in front of him, and was never touched. That is a fumble in the NFL. Everytime. Except for the Cardinals against a NFC East team.

The refs said he "gave up". LOL

The Giants barely make the Wildcard andcthe rest is history

I grew up, in the NYC area. At Thanksgiving one year, the local media revisited that year they one, they listed the #1 significant of that year was the Cruz fumble that wasn't.

So obvious even the NY media saw it as egregious.

Point is, that is how competitive this league is

Sent from my mystical communication warp drive device thingy

 

[Garthshort]

Dr. Jones, thank you. My problem is that if we pick in the 6-8 range, I have NO IDEA who, or even which position we should target. I just hope our FO does. I do feel good about the progress the team is making.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Some might say that you learn from winning due to a unique dynamic; namely - members of losing teams are often in a state of denial (because they're on the defensive about what they did wrong to cost them the game). Whereas members of winning teams are more receptive to criticism (because - regardless of the mistakes they made - it didn't cost them the football game).

That is the perfect example of lack of character.

When people are "in denial" of doing something wrong, or a bad thing happening, then they show they cannot lose, and have no character.

If the attitude is "I am a winner, I do not even believe in losing" that is a person living in fantasyland.

When things go bad, they check out or behave poorly.



Sent from my mystical communication warp drive device thingy

 

[RugbyMuffin]

People make fun of it on this board because Whiz abused it but if I were a coach the one thing I'd REALLY stress, football or basketball it's the same, is trust the system trust your teammates. So often big plays are the result of one guy blowing the assignment he had outside contain but gave it up trying to get a big play. When I watch the Pats, or yesterday SF one of the things you see week after week is how disciplined they are in their assignments. If you miss a block and get Brady hit, you have guys in your face in the huddle(including Brady). I recall reading how after last week there were people lecturing Bosa about getting faked out on the Murray TD run, if you just hold your ground there he doesn't score, don't be a hero. Here's the defensive ROY and a guy in the hunt for DPOY and he makes a mistake and his teammates get all over him because it's a mistake of trying to be a hero.

So common in basketball too where bad shot hero ball turns a 3 point game into an 11 point loss in the last minute.

I think I am finally good with "The system works", since the bigger scar to itch these days is "gap integrity".

Again, another thing that is valid, but hearing it over and over again from a failing coach gets to be nails on a chalk board.

Wonder if the Cardinals built an out house with all those bricks from last year.

Also, Steve Wilks sucks. ............really sucks

Sent from my mystical communication warp drive device thingy

 

[RugbyMuffin]

We’re 3-3-1 in games this season decided by 7 points or less. We’ve won 0 games by more than 7 points.

It should be as concerning that we could just barely put away Cincy— probably more so. There’s no evidence that teams can consistently become good at winning one-score games. Good teams just put bad teams in the garbage can.

Denver won a game 16-0
The Jets just beat Oakland by 30

Agreed.

The Cardinals have 3 wins for a reason.

To be positive, we can say they are "promising".

Take off the sugar coating and they Cardinals are who we thought they were......a bad football team.

Kyler Murray is fun to watch, no doubt, but they are a 3 win team.

Hope is great, wins and progress are better.

#itfallsonKeim

Sent from my mystical communication warp drive device thingy

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Dr. Jones, thank you. My problem is that if we pick in the 6-8 range, I have NO IDEA who, or even which position we should target. I just hope our FO does. I do feel good about the progress the team is making.

Spoiler.

Steve Keim sucks at picking offensive and defensive linemen.



Sent from my mystical communication warp drive device thingy

 

[RON_IN_OC]

People make fun of it on this board because Whiz abused it but if I were a coach the one thing I'd REALLY stress, football or basketball it's the same, is trust the system trust your teammates. So often big plays are the result of one guy blowing the assignment he had outside contain but gave it up trying to get a big play. When I watch the Pats, or yesterday SF one of the things you see week after week is how disciplined they are in their assignments. If you miss a block and get Brady hit, you have guys in your face in the huddle(including Brady). I recall reading how after last week there were people lecturing Bosa about getting faked out on the Murray TD run, if you just hold your ground there he doesn't score, don't be a hero. Here's the defensive ROY and a guy in the hunt for DPOY and he makes a mistake and his teammates get all over him because it's a mistake of trying to be a hero.

So common in basketball too where bad shot hero ball turns a 3 point game into an 11 point loss in the last minute.

The problem isn't trusting the system...it's trusting a coach who won't allow his system to change or evolve, when needed.

It was Whiz's downfall...and BA's downfall, to an extent.

Everyone mentions the Patriots and the Patriot Way...well BB has changed his system many, many times over Brady's career...they have gone from woeful offense with a dynamic defense, to a pass happy - can't run offense with an average defense, to a run heavy offense and woeful defense, etc....and they have won championships with each of those incarnations. The only constant in all of that is the QB and HC...everything else on both sides of the ball has evolved and changed with the personnel and coaches.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Dr. Jones, thank you. My problem is that if we pick in the 6-8 range, I have NO IDEA who, or even which position we should target. I just hope our FO does. I do feel good about the progress the team is making.

Yeah..... It has to be someone in the trenches unless a top talent unexpectedly falls.

Fortunately we may be in position if we pick 6 to 8. Similar to when AP fell to 7.
Unfortunately those two Rams games are looking like we may have a shot at winning.

We need to finish with 3, 4, or 5 wins IMO otherwise that tie may drop us to 11.

Spoiler.

Steve Keim sucks at picking offensive and defensive linemen.

100% Fact.