Theory: Why the Suns lose early, late, and to the Jazz

[Stargazer]

I have a theory that I think explains why the Suns tend to lose (relative to their dominance at other times) early in the season, in the playoffs, and against the Jazz: They have an unorthodox style of play that can only be beaten by a team that is determined to do so.

Early in the season, everything is new, and so teams have extra energy and determination to get off to a good start. Likewise, in the playoffs, for obvious reasons. And as for the Jazz, Sloan is the sort of coach who simply doesn't allow his team to take a night off even in the middle of the season, so that Jazz are one of the few teams that actually makes a serious attempt to gameplan for the Suns and put out the effort to win every game.

But other teams, in the midst of the regular season, simply don't want to be bothered to try to game out a plan against the Suns that, after all, will only be good for one game, especially when that plan involves a lot of sprinting and scrambling to get back on D. It's too easy to just say, "Heck with it, it's only one game, let's just let it go and have some fun" -- at which point they promptly get spanked.

I actually hope I'm wrong, since it suggests the Suns will never win the big games. But I'm worried about this.

 

[Griffin]

I have a theory that I think explains why the Suns tend to lose (relative to their dominance at other times) early in the season, in the playoffs, and against the Jazz

The Suns are 6-5 against Utah since Nash came back, so I guess you are referring to last season only when we were 1-3. Last season we lost to the Jazz twice in the first nine games of the season at which point we were 3-6, so one of the reasons we lost to the Jazz is because it was early. Overall, we lost the three games to Utah last season by a combined 10 points, blowing some big leads if I recall correctly. The one game we won, we won by 28. So I would hardly say that Utah gives us any more trouble than other teams.

 

[TheHopToad]

You can't merely just look at the record last year against the Jazz and say that the Jazz are any more prepared for the Suns or own them. You have to look at how those games went down.

Despite the 1-3 record against them, the Suns really controlled Utah. All three losses went right down to the final possession with Barbosa missing a layup to win in the first one, Nash not playing in the second game (still only lost by 3), and Okur burning us with a winning shot at the buzzer in the third. Then the Suns blew them out by 29 in Utah in the final week of the regular season.

 

[dodie53]

if the jazz prepares for the suns,
think about what san antonio does.

 

[TheHopToad]

if the jazz prepares for the suns,
think about what san antonio does.

San Antonio doesn't need to. Not a lot of preparation goes into "Give the ball to Timmy, Timmy you score".

 

[azirish]

The trick to beating the Suns is to hit shots and have the Suns miss open shots. Works every time.

Seriously, the Suns are never in "Suns condition" at the start of the season. All the training in the world is not the same as game conditions where the Suns "run all the time" style is unbelievably demanding. The Bulls bill themselvs as a running team, but they could not sustain for four quarters.

As for the playoffs, the Suns are not a bad playoff team. They have gotten to the third round twice and the second round against the eventual champion in the other. If losing to the Spurs is the definition of a bad playoff team, then the Spurs are the only good playoff team.

 

[mojorizen7]

The trick to beating the Suns is to hit shots and have the Suns miss open shots. Works every time.

Seriously, the Suns are never in "Suns condition" at the start of the season. All the training in the world is not the same as game conditions where the Suns "run all the time" style is unbelievably demanding. The Bulls bill themselvs as a running team, but they could not sustain for four quarters.

As for the playoffs, the Suns are not a bad playoff team. They have gotten to the third round twice and the second round against the eventual champion in the other. If losing to the Spurs is the definition of a bad playoff team, then the Spurs are the only good playoff team.

True it takes a while for the SUNS to start hitting on all cylinders.
D'Antoni's playoff record 25 - 21 = .543 win%
Hmmm...that doesn't tell the whole story but it looks pretty mediocre to me. Not bad, but other than the amount of appearances it's not very impressive.

 

[azirish]

True it takes a while for the SUNS to start hitting on all cylinders.
D'Antoni's playoff record 25 - 21 = .543 win%
Hmmm...that doesn't tell the whole story but it looks pretty mediocre to me. Not bad, but other than the amount of appearances it's not very impressive.

What are you comparing it to? A bunch of those loses were in 2005-06. The Suns were robbed in game 4 against the Lakers (read the thread on it) and still got to WCF without Amare and KT only to then lose Bell. If you want to blame D'Antoni for all those injuries don't expect me to buy your argument.

 

[mojorizen7]

Like i said "it doesn't tell the whole story". I too watched the SUNS get robbed. I don't blame DA for anything other than the system. Injuries happen. Bad calls happen. We've been pushed to 7 games too many times by weaker teams that run more efficient, playoff condusive systems. Thats where many of those losses come from also. Not just one season in '05-'06.
You mention without Amare,& without K.T......Diaw played like he was somebody else that year & Kurt would of more than likely played a whopping 15 min/game.

 

[azirish]

2004-05

Griz 4-0
Mavs 4-2
Spurs 1-4

2005-06

Lakers 4-3
Clippers 4-3
Mavs 2-4

2006-07

Lakers 4-1
Spurs 2-4

The only team the Suns were demonstrably superior to that exended the Suns was the 2005-06 Lakers. Take away the stolen game and it doesn't go to seven. The Suns had a better record than the Clippers in 2005-06 (they won only 47), but the Clippers were picked by most observers to win that series.


Blaming the "system" is sufficiently abstract that it loses meaning. The system isn't what makes guys slow at making their rotations, fail to block out, fight for hustle rebounds, or fail to move their feet on defense. The system does not make them too short to be straight up shot blockers. You can blame D'Antoni for not doing a better job of getting his guys to play more disciplined defense, but calling it a failure of the system is just gibberish.

 

[mojorizen7]

The system IS what makes our guys have to rotate or get burned.
D'Antoni doesn't expect his front line to block out in the paint, they're asked to get out and run & hope that they get a long rebound off a missed shot or rely on Marion to get all the boards.
What aspect of D'Antonis system lends itself to crashing the boards or manning up on defense in the half-court without having to rotate & switch up? These are HIS players. No...there is no magic affordable big man available to save the day,and he doesn't WANT a big rebounding shot blocker who can defend the paint because that'd F up his system!
Mike D..... "If you can't run , shoot or pass....i don't want you."
If you don't believe thats his way of thinking then i believe you're wearing goggles.
I'm sorry Irish, we can go round & round on this one and i appreciate the banter but it's not like i'm the only one who's watched the SUNS get out-muscled year after year while pretending to play defense during the post-season.

 

[jandaman]

Did you people count the games against the Jazz when Boozer didnt play?

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

The trick to beating the Suns is to hit shots and have the Suns miss open shots. Works every time.

Ah, right. So it's merely bad luck when the Suns lose.

The Jazz and the Spurs play the Suns well because they're very well-coached and disciplined teams and have players capable of exploiting the Suns biggest weakness which is interior defense and rebounding. They get back in transition, stay at home on the three-point shooters, and have the athleticism on defense to switch on the pick and roll. On offense, they have the patience and discipline not to fall into the shooting run-and-gun offense and simply pound the ball inside where the Suns have nobody.

Seriously, the reason these teams consistently beat the Suns is because their shots drop and the Suns don't? Are you Mike D'Antoni?

 

[Lorenzo]

Ah, right. So it's merely bad luck when the Suns lose.

The Jazz and the Spurs play the Suns well because they're very well-coached and disciplined teams and have players capable of exploiting the Suns biggest weakness which is interior defense and rebounding. They get back in transition, stay at home on the three-point shooters, and have the athleticism on defense to switch on the pick and roll. On offense, they have the patience and discipline not to fall into the shooting run-and-gun offense and simply pound the ball inside where the Suns have nobody.

Seriously, the reason these teams consistently beat the Suns is because their shots drop and the Suns don't? Are you Mike D'Antoni?

I think we all knew that. The suns get a lot of deserved credit for being a great shooting team....that is their strength. but the one thing that seperates the spurs from the other teams in the west is they do everything well. everything. name a glaring weakness that have shown in the playoffs. they tend to look boring at times maybe. that's about all i can think of.

 

[arwillan]

I think we all knew that. The suns get a lot of deserved credit for being a great shooting team....that is their strength. but the one thing that seperates the spurs from the other teams in the west is they do everything well. everything. name a glaring weakness that have shown in the playoffs. they tend to look boring at times maybe. that's about all i can think of.

the spurs are not a good free throw shooting team.
the spurs (other than parker) are not a very athletic team.
the spurs are not a strong above the rim team.



3 more for you.

 

[mojorizen7]

the spurs are not a good free throw shooting team.
the spurs (other than parker) are not a very athletic team.
the spurs are not a strong above the rim team.



3 more for you.

Very true but the poor free throw shooting is the only weakness that hurts the SPURS in the post-season IMO.

 

[The_Matrix]

the spurs are not a good free throw shooting team.
the spurs (other than parker) are not a very athletic team.
the spurs are not a strong above the rim team.

Duncan's shooting above 70 percent these days and Manu takes the free throws late anyway. Ginobili and Finley are great athletes, and Duncan doesn't need to jump 40 inches to repeatedly stuff the Suns' layup/dunk attempts.

 

[Lorenzo]

Duncan's shooting above 70 percent these days and Manu takes the free throws late anyway. Ginobili and Finley are great athletes, and Duncan doesn't need to jump 40 inches to repeatedly stuff the Suns' layup/dunk attempts.

well said. yes the spurs aren't a great FT shooting team, but they aren't terrible. most of their struggles are highlighted by TD's inconsistencies. but he seems to always make the important ones down the stretch in the playoffs. parker is not the only athletic player that is a terrible observation. parker is probably one most athletic PGs in the league. Ginobli is very athletic. that guy gets to the rim with ease it seems like. he is a great player. I'd say he plays above the rim at times as well. TD doesn't look athletic......he makes it look easy. but a 7 footer than can do what he does that easily......must be pretty athletic. take this comparison. Look at TD then look at Dampier. tell me TD is not athletic. and he's also one of the best interior defenders in the league. bruce bowen is the best perimeter defender.

 

[Cheesebeef]

well said. yes the spurs aren't a great FT shooting team, but they aren't terrible. most of their struggles are highlighted by TD's inconsistencies. but he seems to always make the important ones down the stretch in the playoffs. parker is not the only athletic player that is a terrible observation. parker is probably one most athletic PGs in the league. Ginobli is very athletic. that guy gets to the rim with ease it seems like. he is a great player. I'd say he plays above the rim at times as well. TD doesn't look athletic......he makes it look easy. but a 7 footer than can do what he does that easily......must be pretty athletic. take this comparison. Look at TD then look at Dampier. tell me TD is not athletic. and he's also one of the best interior defenders in the league. bruce bowen is the best perimeter defender.

not to mention that Elson's a pretty athletic guy as well and the Spurs can win a track meet (see Games 1 and 6 of last series) just as easily as a slugfest.

Unfortunatley, they really don't have a lot of weaknesses, which is why they've won 3 of the last 5 titles.

 

[azirish]

not to mention that Elson's a pretty athletic guy as well and the Spurs can win a track meet (see Games 1 and 6 of last series) just as easily as a slugfest.

Unfortunatley, they really don't have a lot of weaknesses, which is why they've won 3 of the last 5 titles.

It's pretty simple. If the Spurs are healthy and the Suns aren't, the Spurs win. If the Spurs have injuries and the Suns don't, the Suns have a very good chance. If both are healthy, the whole series will come down to a small number of plays which is what makes the officiating so crucial.

 

[arwillan]

i wasn't saying they do have a lot of flaws or anything. i was just pointing out that they are not perfect (even though they don't exactly have any gaping holes).

 

[Lorenzo]

It's pretty simple. If the Spurs are healthy and the Suns aren't, the Spurs win. If the Spurs have injuries and the Suns don't, the Suns have a very good chance. If both are healthy, the whole series will come down to a small number of plays which is what makes the officiating so crucial.

I agree with that. I still think that a team that knows how to win those small number of plays is the one that normal wins it all. the spurs have 4 titles so I think it is pretty clear. I agree with what cheesebeef said. The spurs beat the suns at their own game. Just look at game 6 last year. Look at the series a few years back when the spurs outscored the suns in the high 100's. the spurs are just a great team and they have the best coach in the business.

 

[arwillan]

the spurs are great yes, but the suns are fully capable of beating them in a seven game series.

 

[Scot1]

Sorry to be a bore, but don't forget that the Spurs play Sternball, refed by Sternrefs. Without that, we would be discussing their tendency to play bad defense, and have players foul out and miss games due to Ts.... Sorry again--any discussion of the Spurs that ignores that is like discussing how well the 1911 Cincinnati Reds played against the Black Sox.

 

[Lorenzo]

Sorry to be a bore, but don't forget that the Spurs play Sternball, refed by Sternrefs. Without that, we would be discussing their tendency to play bad defense, and have players foul out and miss games due to Ts.... Sorry again--any discussion of the Spurs that ignores that is like discussing how well the 1911 Cincinnati Reds played against the Black Sox.

wow. I like the spurs about as much as any of you do. but there is a reason why they have 4 titles.....yet the suns and mavs have 0. I have to call it like I see it. The spurs are a great TEAM. that's why they find ways to win in the playoffs......even when other teams might be highly touted.