Thought Exercise on Haason Reddick vs other FA's

[juza76]

dynamic players don’t average 11.3 yards per catch in their first three years. Lol

Got many screen passes I guess, so averaging 11.3 not bad at all
With dynamic i mean u can use him all over the field, is not the typical wideout
For example Alvin Kamara is one of the most dynamic receiver in the nfl and he averaged 8.9 yards for catch in his career

 

[juza76]

I read this about Samuel

Head coach Matt Rhule said, Samuel is exactly the kind of player that he likes to coach and he also spoke on his dependability.

"He's everything that I like in a football player. He's dynamic, he's athletic, he's explosive. But he's also tough, dependable, works hard, can be corrected, can be coached, really low-maintenance, great teammate, he's a football player. I can't say enough good things about Curtis.

 

[Shane]

Got many screen passes I guess, so averaging 11.3 not bad at all
With dynamic i mean u can use him all over the field, is not the typical wideout
For example Alvin Kamara is one of the most dynamic receiver in the nfl and he averaged 8.9 yards for catch in his career

lol Kamara is a RB.... 11.3 is not a dynamic WR in anyway

 

[juza76]

lol Kamara is a RB.... 11.3 is not a dynamic WR in anyway

I know he is a rb, just saying it depends where u get the passes

 

[dreamcastrocks]

OG - Brandon Scherff
WR - Allen Robinson
OG - Joe Thuney
CB - William Jackson III
C - Corey Linsley
WR - Juju Smith-Schuster
DL - Leonard Williams
EDGE - Leonard Floyd
WR - Curtis Samuel
EDGE - Haason Reddick
DL - JJ Watt
CB - Ronald Darby
EDGE - Bud Dupree (coming off ACL injury)
CB - Patrick Peterson

 

[BritCard]

A lot of people sure like an underwhelming Samuel

What's underwhelming?

Improved his stats consistently every year in the league. Can play outside and slot. Can run all the gadget plays Isabella can't. Sweeps, direct RB type handoffs etc. He can return punts.

Runs a 4.31 40 yard dash at nearly 200lbs. Great YAC ability (844 yards on 507 air yards). Catch rate ranks #2 in the league last season.

Has 4 years starting experience and doesn't turn 25 until the season starts.

What's not to like? He's the perfect WR2 for us.

I'd give him Larry's $11m all day long.

 

[BritCard]

Yeah, I mean, I can see liking him as a budget option, but throwing a ton of money at a guy who has never gotten over 1,000 yards receiving is pretty odd.

Who's saying throw a ton of money at him?

He's a 24 year old vet that ascended 200+ yards every year in the league. He's primed to break 1k and has a bunch of years left in him. We would be lucky to get him for $11m. He's more likely to go for $14m+.

 

[daves]

Taking him 500% over JuJu

Wow... I like Samuel, but his value sure seems to be inflated on this board. His career catch rate is only 63%, he just had his best season with 851 yards, and only averaged 11.1 career yards per catch.

JuJu has fallen off from his 1426-yard sophomore season, and just had his WORST season with 831 yards, about the same as Samuel's best. With the corpse of Roethlisberger throwing him the ball plus the emergence of Johnson & Claypool this season, he had about the same yardage as those two but a career low 8.6 y/r. Even so, his career average is a full yard higher than Samuel's, and his catch rate is 69.5%.

I guess if you just look at their most recent seasons, Samuel looks a bit better, plus he got a bunch of rush attempts. But i think JuJu has proven to have a higher upside with 78% more yards in just 5 more games. Samuel is still young, but JuJu is even slightly younger. Plus his name is fun to say.

Now if you're elevating Samuel in the comparison because you're expecting him to cost 60% what JuJu will be expecting, i get it. But the premise of this thread is that they're all in the $10M+ range so for the same money, I'd take JuJu.

In fact, Samuel's most recent and best season was very reminiscent of Larry Fitzgerald's 2019 (save for his 200 rushing yards), and purely based on performance, NO ONE thought Fitz was worth $11M in 2019. So i don't get the love for Samuel.

...dave

 

[BritCard]

Yea... in 17 and 18 he had one of your favs Cam Newton. In 20 Teddy Bridgewater who is easily an NFL caliber QB. 2019 is the only really iffy season at QB.

In 17 and 18 Cam was already past it. He threw for 3300 yards per, which ranked 18th and 19th respectively. Which is right around where Bridgewater ranked this year.

He's never had a top half QB but whatever.

 

[Shane]

Wow... I like Samuel, but his value sure seems to be inflated on this board. His catch rate is only 63%, he just had his best season with 851 yards, and only averaged 11.1 career yards per catch.

JuJu has fallen off from his 1426-yard hogging season, and just had his WORST season with 831 yards. With the corpse of Roethlisberger throwing him the ball plus the emergence of Johnson & Claypool this season, he had about the same yardage as those two but a career low 8.6 y/r. Even so, his career average is a full yard higher than Samuel's, and his catch rate is 69.5%.

I guess if you just look at their most recent seasons, Samuel looks a bit better, plus he got a bunch of rush attempts. But i think JuJu has proven to have a higher upside with 78% more yards in just 5 more games. Plus his name is fun to say.

Now if you're elevating Samuel in the comparison because you're expecting him to cost 60% what JuJu will be expecting, i get it. But the premise of this thread is that they're all in the $10M+ range so for the same money, I'd take JuJu every time.

In fact, Samuel's most recent and best season was very reminiscent of Larry Fitzgerald's 2019, and purely based on performance, NO ONE thought he was worth $11M. So i don't get the love for Samuel.

...dave

100

 

[Shane]

What's underwhelming?

Improved his stats consistently every year in the league. Can play outside and slot. Can run all the gadget plays Isabella can't. Sweeps, direct RB type handoffs etc. He can return punts.

Runs a 4.31 40 yard dash at nearly 200lbs. Great YAC ability (844 yards on 507 air yards). Catch rate ranks #2 in the league last season.

Has 4 years starting experience and doesn't turn 25 until the season starts.

What's not to like? He's the perfect WR2 for us.

I'd give him Larry's $11m all day long.

more power to you... he’s completely underwhelming.... his 4.3 speed doesn’t translate to his career 11.1 YPC rate.... AT ALL

 

[BritCard]

lol Kamara is a RB.... 11.3 is not a dynamic WR in anyway

11.3 is not dynamic...checks.

Hopkins 11.2 YPC last year, 12.2 YPC this year.

 

[BritCard]

more power to you... he’s completely underwhelming.... his 4.3 speed doesn’t translate to his career 11.1 YPC rate.... AT ALL

What he can do and how he is used are two different things.

Take away Samuels rookie year when he wasn't used or targeted much and Newton ranks 29th in '18 for accuracy on 20+ yard passes. In 2019 Kyle Allen was last.

2020 isn't out yet but I can tell you for sure it's not going to be good for Bridgewater.

 

[daves]

He's a 24 year old vet that ascended 200+ yards every year in the league. He's primed to break 1k and has a bunch of years left in him. We would be lucky to get him for $11m. He's more likely to go for $14m+.

I do see the appeal in his consistent improvement. But FWIW, OTC puts Samuel's value at $6,958K and JuJu's at $10,387K.

I might rather have Samuel at those relative costs, but if they're both $10M, give me the guy who's already shown he's capable of 1400+ yards playing across from a top-5 WR and catching passes from a QB whose arm isn't dead.

...dave

 

[Shane]

11.3 is not dynamic...checks.

Hopkins 11.2 YPC last year, 12.2 YPC this year.

Hopkins in his first 3 seasons had YPC close to 16 YPC... As a 4.4 guy which is fast but not considered blazing like a 4.3 guy. But not fair to compare him to Hopkins ever. Hopkins isnt as fast as he used to be anymore. He makes dynamic plays now with not so much speed but his size and body control.

For his career he is 13.4 substantially higher. Kind of a weird guy to compare him to.

 

[BritCard]

I do see the appeal in his consistent improvement. But FWIW, OTC puts Samuel's value at $6,958K and JuJu's at $10,387K.

I might rather have Samuel at those relative costs, but if they're both $10M, give me the guy who's already shown he's capable of 1400+ yards playing across from a top-5 WR and catching passes from a QB whose arm isn't dead.

...dave

The thing is I'm not really interested in what either of them have done in very different systems. This is based on what I think both could do in our scheme.

For me Juju is just more Larry and Larry hasn't done well in this system (I personally think Larry has much more left in the tank than his stats show) because we don't tend to target the slot / middle so much. We don't hit a lot of slants or dig routes.

Juju was the highest % slot guy in the league last year. 82% in the slot. He runs a 4.54. I just don't see what he adds to this scheme. In fact I think he's going to sorely disappointed in how teams value him in FA.

Samuel on the other hand is exactly what this team is missing and can do exactly what Kliff so desperately wanted Isabella to do but can't. He can play outside and slot (50/50 last year). He can take various hand offs and run the ball. He can stretch the field and actually make use of his speed with a QB in Kyler who can throw deep with the best in the league and he's used to blocking for a mobile QB.

He's a 4 year vet and he's 3 months older than Isabella.

 

[BritCard]

Hopkins in his first 3 seasons had YPC close to 16 YPC... As a 4.4 guy which is fast but not considered blazing like a 4.3 guy. But not fair to compare him to Hopkins ever. Hopkins isnt as fast as he used to be anymore. He makes dynamic plays now with not so much speed but his size and body control.

For his career he is 13.4 substantially higher. Kind of a weird guy to compare him to.

I'm comparing him to him currently. They are completely different players with different draft positions, skill sets and expectations but those aren't factors.

You said 11.1 YPC isn't dynamic. I guess by that token Nuk wasn't dynamic last year when he had 1200 yards? Where's the cut off? His 12.2 dynamic but 11.3 not?

Samuel had some of the worst deep passers in the league throwing to him. Not sure how he's supposed to overcome that? He turned a 7.2 aDot this year into 11.1 YPC. That seems pretty dynamic to me.

Michael Thomas's career YPC is 11.7. I guess he's not good. Cooper Kupp had 10.4 this year. I guess we wouldn't want him as our WR2? Keenen Allen is 11.9. Jarvis Landry 11.1.

I really don't get your point. He's dynamic in that he can do a lot of different things and in the right scheme with a QB that can actually throw a deep ball I guarantee you will see 13+ YPC.

 

[juza76]

I'm comparing him to him currently. They are completely different players with different draft positions, skill sets and expectations but those aren't factors.

You said 11.1 YPC isn't dynamic. I guess buy that token Nuk wasn't dynamic last year when he had 1200 yards? Where's the cut off? His 12.2 dynamic but 11.3 not?

Samuel had some of the worst deep passers in the league throwing to him. Not sure how he's supposed to overcome that? He turned a 7.2 aDot this year into 11.1 YPC. That seems pretty dynamic to me.

Michael Thomas's career YPC is 11.7. I guess he's not good. Cooper Kupp had 10.4 this year. I guess we wouldn't want him as our WR2? Keenen Allen is 11.9. Jarvis Landry 11.1.

I really don't get your point. He's dynamic in that he can do a lot of different things and in the right scheme with a QB that can actually throw a deep ball I guarantee you will see 13+ YPC.

Ypc doesn't show much
As I said it depends where u get the ball
If a receiver moves all over the field, he plays screen, slot, and those are type of plays where u don't get much yards at all
Then there are players who are mainly deep threat and for them is normal averaging 17+ yards for catch
For example the great tyreek Hill has 14.7, but he is more a deep threat, and he doesnt have Bridgewater or cam Newton throwing to him

 

[BritCard]

Ypc doesn't show much
As I said it depends where u get the ball
If a receiver moves all over the field, he plays screen, slot, and those are type of plays where u don't get much yards at all
Then there are players who are mainly deep threat and for them is normal averaging 17+ yards for catch
For example the great tyreek Hill has 14.7, but he is more a deep threat, and he doesnt have Bridgewater or cam Newton throwing to him

Exactly.

bUt He'S nOt DyNaMic

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[juza76]

Exactly.

bUt He'S nOt DyNaMic

You must be registered for see images attach

Even Dante Hall on his prime could get more then 15 yards for catch with that distribution

 

[wit3card]

OG - Brandon Scherff
C - Corey Linsley
DL - Leonard Williams
OG - Joe Thuney
EDGE - Haason Reddick
CB - William Jackson III
WR - Allen Robinson

For me only this guys are worth 10+ millions and I would try to get them in that order.

Curtis isn't a 10 Mio a year WR and I wouldn't touch Ju-Ju since he is a diva and way above his head, Ju-Ju would damage our WR group more than it would help.


And Yes I'm a building the trenches guy.

If I have to get rid of Fitz+PP21 to get as many of them. But for real, Fitz finally has to do a Brady deal... if Brady the Best QB got only 20 mio when 40 would have been expected, fitz has to take 3 Mio if 6 would be around his number, and with that extra 8 Mio you can sign one of thoose guys.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Floyd and Dupree are it for me.

There’s a lot of good players on the list but not many elite.

I almost think 10 mill/year is overpaying almost everyone on the list. But maybe “my pay scale” needs updated.

 

[DVontel]

Floyd and Dupree are it for me.

There’s a lot of good players on the list but not many elite.

I almost think 10 mill/year is overpaying almost everyone on the list. But maybe “my pay scale” needs updated.

Is Aaron Donald coming with Floyd?

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Is Aaron Donald coming with Floyd?

I’d give 10+ for that.

 

[DVontel]

I just now noticed Floyd was on the list


Yea he’s way at the bottom


Stay away from pass-rushers that played along side Aaron Donald


See: Dante Fowler