Thursday night week 10 Bengals @ Ravens

[Ronin]

Tony Pike

@tony_pike15
·
9h

Joe Burrow has thrown for 820 yards, 9 TDs and 1 INT against Baltimore this year …. He’s 0-2… help him!

 

[kerouac9]

Chase Young:

11 catches 272 yards and 3 TDs

smh

Big stats from a pass rusher who wasn't playing in the game if true

 

[Ronin]

JJ Watt

@JJWatt
·
12h

These Ravens uniforms are giving Crown Royal bag vibes

 

[Ronin]

Ryan Mink


@ryanmink
Follow


Marlon Humphrey had strong words about the Ravens' defense:"These wins are getting harder to enjoy based off what we're doing in the pass defense. When I was a rookie, first year guy, second year guy, that's how I looked up to the standard that was there. In the pass defense, we've really lost that standard.
And, you know, I feel like that falls on me."We're going to keep chasing at it. We're going to keep working at it, because I'm just I'm not really satisfied with what I've built in the secondary, where it's gone. I just don't think playing like this, we can go far."

 

[Crimson Warrior]

Glass Joe loses again, yay!

I'm kidding! omg, I'm just kidding. Relax one-trick-pony lovers.

 

[Ronin]

Zac Taylor on two-point try: 'We came here to win'

 

[Ronin]

OptaSTATS


@OptaSTATS
·
8h


There have been 2 instances in NFL history where a QB had:
30+ completions
300+ passing yards
4+ TD passes
multiple 40+ yard TD passes
no more than 1 INT...and yet still lost. Those 2 instances were Joe Burrow vs. the Ravens in Week 5 & Joe Burrow vs. the Ravens again tonight

 

[Ronin]

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[WakeForestCard]

We can absolutely agree to disagree it was dumb

Why do you think it’s dumb? It’s just probability.

Inputs/Assumptions:
1) OT is 50/50
2) McPherson makes Extra Points @ 97% clip
3) Bengals stop Ravens from FG @ end of regulation 75% of the time (This number doesn’t really matter - it’ll give a different end % but the difference between the two options will remain the same)

Variable:
1) Bengals chance of converting 2 Pt Conversion (Will be designated by ‘X’)

Odds to win kicking PAT:
= (McPherson Making PAT) * (Stop Ravens in Regulation) * (Win OT)

= (.97)(.75)(.5) = 36.375% Chance to win

Odds to win going for 2:
= (Making 2 Pt Conversion) * (Stop Ravens in Regulation)

= (X)(.75) = .75X

When is it worth it?:
You’d want to go for two if it helps your win probability. So at worst you’d want a chance to win (at minimum) of 37%

.75X = .37

X needs to equal at least .4933 (or) 49.33%

Conclusion:
If Bengals think they can score on the two point try at least 49.33% of the time, it is the correct choice to go for it.

Edit:
You can also play around with the inputs as you like (for example: you don't think OT is 50/50, you have a better chance of stopping them from getting a FG if you're winning vs losing etc.) but it will always pop out a number of the % of times Bengals would need to score a 2 pt conversion.

You could argue the Bengals are 'dumb' in their assumption of their 2 pt conversion rate (like if they think they will convert 70% of the time) - but as long as their internally used 2 pt conversion success rate provides a higher expected winning %, then their decision making is sound.

 

[WisconsinCard]

We can absolutely agree to disagree it was dumb

Did you hear that rumble when they didn't make it? It was Hallis, Lombardi, Allen, Landry, and knoll rolling over in their grave.

 

[WisconsinCard]

Hilariously bad takes... Especially coming three whole days after everyone ridiculed the Buccaneers for NOT going for two vs. the Chiefs.

The Bengals offense was on fire and their D couldn't stop the Ravens in the 2nd half. Why leave it to a coin flip when you have probably better than a 50/50 chance at winning in regulation?

I just read the odds if converting a two point conversion since 2015 is 47.5%. the odds of scoring a TD on any given drive is 21.3%.

So I know what the analytics say but I'll take my chances on kicking the extra point, other team winning a 50/50 coin flip and a 22% chance if me not getting the ball back every time.

So not everyone ridiculed the Bucks, because I didn't.

 

[kerouac9]

I just read the odds if converting a two point conversion since 2015 is 47.5%. the odds of scoring a TD on any given drive is 21.3%.

So I know what the analytics say but I'll take my chances on kicking the extra point, other team winning a 50/50 coin flip and a 22% chance if me not getting the ball back every time.

So not everyone ridiculed the Bucks, because I didn't.

Another heuristic for this is "what would the other team least like us to do?" I think that if I were the opponent I'd be much happier watching them go for the tie than try to beat us on one play.