TIME TO GET RICH: Kyler Passing O/U

[phillycard]

Okay, for the betting simpleton here, odds mean that if a prop is +2500, and I wage $10, I would receive $25,000 if it hits?

 

[kerouac9]

Okay, for the betting simpleton here, odds mean that if a prop is +2500, and I wage $10, I would receive $25,000 if it hits?

$250. Positive odds are what you’d get back if you’d wagered $100. Negative odds (-120) are what you’d have to wager to win $100.

 

[oaken1]

Fans have some weird perception of what a receiving corp should be. Like if it's not Chase, Higgins, Boyd 2 years ago it's weak.

MHJ is possibly the best WR prospect since Megatron. Michael Wilson has 45 yards per game as a rookie and played most of the year with Dobbs, he's going to have a great year.

McBride had over 800 yards at TE after having only 80 through 5 games.

Jordan Love had 4159 yards passing and his leading receiver was Jayden Reed with 793 yards. His corp was Reed, Doubs, Wicks, Heath, Musgrave, Kraft and 9 games of Christian Watson.

Sam Howell was 50 yards short of 4000 and could only get 1002 yards out of McLaurin, nobody else topped 613.

This wide receiver group is more than good enough for Kyler to top 4000 yards.

If MHJ and McBride don't both break 1000 then that's on Kyler.

while I agree with your premise...

Drew Petsme is the guy who calls the plays....and he loves JC...then got a shiny new runningback and a specialist 300 pound blocking TE...
it may be more likely we have 2 1000 yard backs rather than 2 1000 yard receivers.and JC and Benson will still combine for 700 yards receiving

 

[oaken1]

This is really tempting. Even if Kyler misses 3 games, he has the weapons to easily clear 3300 yards.

but he has never hit 4k...and we are developing a smash mouth offense.... whoever picks those O/U numbers hit this one right in the nutz

 

[kerouac9]

while I agree with your premise...

Drew Petsme is the guy who calls the plays....and he loves JC...then got a shiny new runningback and a specialist 300 pound blocking TE...
it may be more likely we have 2 1000 yard backs rather than 2 1000 yard receivers.and JC and Benson will still combine for 700 yards receiving

JC has only had 1 1k yard season and Benson had zero in college.

Plus Petzing doesn’t throw to RBs; those targets and routes go to the TE. Look at JC’s target numbers over the past three seasons.

 

[Mulli]

JC has only had 1 1k yard season and Benson had zero in college.

Plus Petzing doesn’t throw to RBs; those targets and routes go to the TE. Look at JC’s target numbers over the past three seasons.

You could look up a cows butt to see a Tbone but wouldn’t you just take the butchers word for it?

 

[DVontel]

I’m not so sure I could see MHJ or Nabers possibly winning it.

Caleb has the weapons & the market on his side. Even if he plays 70% of a rookie Herbert & Stroud, he will definitely win it.

 

[kerouac9]

Caleb has the weapons & the market on his side. Even if he plays 70% of a rookie Herbert & Stroud, he will definitely win it.

Not if Nabers gets 1200 yards receiving AND the Giants make the playoffs.

 

[Shane]

Caleb has the weapons & the market on his side. Even if he plays 70% of a rookie Herbert & Stroud, he will definitely win it.

Possibly you’re right no doubt. But I could see him making enough mistakes in his first year to keep him under the cusp if one of those WRs goes out and kills it.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

$250. Positive odds are what you’d get back if you’d wagered $100. Negative odds (-120) are what you’d have to wager to win $100.

Kind of blows my mind that I've never known that. Not a gambler though, but it makes a ton of sense now.

 

[DVontel]

Not if Nabers gets 1200 yards receiving AND the Giants make the playoffs.

Yea I don’t foresee the Giants making the playoffs. I believe the Bears will even in a tougher division.

 

[kerouac9]

Yea I don’t foresee the Giants making the playoffs. I believe the Bears will even in a tougher division.

They made the playoffs two years ago.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I’m not so sure I could see MHJ or Nabers possibly winning it.

The Bears win 8 it's Cakeb

 

[kerouac9]

The Bears win 8 it's Cakeb

The Bears won 7 last year.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The Bears won 7 last year.

Doesn't matter. #1 pick and a QB. Just have to have moderate success and he is ROY.

Same with Daniels.

Getting on a receiver to win this ROY with Six QBs in the top of round 1 is lighting money on fire. It's why the odds are so steep.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Doesn't matter. #1 pick and a QB. Just have to have moderate success and he is ROY.

Same with Daniels.

Getting on a receiver to win this ROY with Six QBs in the top of round 1 is lighting money on fire. It's why the odds are so steep.

100%. The odds would need to be like +3500 for me to risk any money on Nabers.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

100%. The odds would need to be like +3500 for me to risk any money on Nabers.

I still might be out. You have to dodge:

At least 3 QBs
MHJr
Injury
Bad QB play
The rookie RBs
McConkey
Coleman

In fact I would bet on McConkey and Coleman just based on the QBs way before Nabors

 

[daves]

$250. Positive odds are what you’d get back if you’d wagered $100. Negative odds (-120) are what you’d have to wager to win $100.

To be a little more precise... If you wagered $10 with +2500 odds, you'd win $250 and you'd get back your $10 wager, for a total of $260.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I don’t believe in anybody’s ability to stay healthy for 17 games enough to put money on it… One decent 6 week injury you’re likely just throwing money down the drain

I learned this very important lesson last year when I bet on Rondale Moore to get 500 yards last year.

These future bets are absolute ass.

You have to front the money some 7-9 months out.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Kind of blows my mind that I've never known that. Not a gambler though, but it makes a ton of sense now.

Here's some website guides that will explain some of the language of sports betting.

How to Bet on NFL - The Complete Guide for 2024

Unlock the ultimate guide to NFL betting in March 2024. Discover how it works, the best sportsbooks, various bet types, and more with FanNation.

www.si.com

How to Bet on Football - Tips & Guide | DraftKings Sportsbook

Learn how to bet on football including football bet types and common mistakes.

sportsbook.draftkings.com

I used to buy season tickets when the Cards were in St, Louis. OG Bidwill started jacking up the ticket prices and, since the games were on local TV, I decided to head down to the local bar that had an illegal sports book in the back room. I would bet the amount that I would normally spend going to each game---ticket, travel, parking, food, etc. Made some great friends, most degenerate gamblers, all now deceased and looking up from below each Sunday to watch the Cards. I'm a Cards fan but I did not hesitate to bet against them---just take a look at their W-L record as a franchise. During the game broadcast, we'd all be cheering a good play by the Cards. When the game ended and the Cards, lost, some of us would be cheering the loss. Even when I lost a bet, I figured I broke even.

Be aware of the 'Vig,' the amount the sports book will charge for making the bet. At my old bar, it was 10% on winning bets. That is really high compared to the vig sports books now collect. Wimpy, the bar owner, kept all the losing bets and also 10% of the winning bets. We had free beer, pizza, snacks included in the $5 admission into the back room for betting. Farting, belching, cursing, laughing were encouraged and added to the fun. The bar owner was taking a big risk of being raided. Of course, the local off-duty police were in the backroom with us placing their bets. Dem were the days.

https://www.legalsportsreport.com/how-to-bet/vigorish/

 

[GimmedaBall]

You could look up a cows butt to see a Tbone but wouldn’t you just take the butchers word for it?

MMMMmmmm . . . Cow butthole soup, just like Grandma used to make.

 

[BritCard]

Watching Packers games I think Matt Lafleur did an incredible job of scheming up his #1 read to be wide open or at least NFL open.

I just don't think Petzings in his class. Although TBF not many are. Maybe Kyler isn't in Love's but their offense looks easier.

Of course Love was in the same system for years, Lafleur knows his strengths/weaknesses, K1 injury, etc etc.

Just saying how it looked though.

That's a completely different argument to the quality in the room.

 

[BritCard]

The assertion that 45 YPG is a meaningful stat when everyone already knows the context of it will never stop being hilarious to me.

It's a very meaningful stat. I'd argue for a WR one fo the most important stats. Certainly more important than total yards.

 

[BritCard]

How did you even get here? lol.

They have a BUNCH of really good WR2s. We have a possible good WR2 in Wilson, but ofc, the possible big problem with him will be durability.

McBride is the only one that’s proven. We don’t expect it, but there’s a world where MHJR could end up not living up to the hype. He has not taken a NFL snap yet.

Dude, the GB receiving corp you just said was "really good" is literally a bunch of WR 2 and 3's.

The world where MHJ isn't as least as good as Chris Olave, a guy who already said MHJ was better than him, is so small as to be laughable you tried to make it a thing to win an argument.

 

[BritCard]

while I agree with your premise...

Drew Petsme is the guy who calls the plays....and he loves JC...then got a shiny new runningback and a specialist 300 pound blocking TE...
it may be more likely we have 2 1000 yard backs rather than 2 1000 yard receivers.and JC and Benson will still combine for 700 yards receiving

Agin that's a completely different argument to how good the WR room is.

Kyler had 225 yards per game coming off injury in a new scheme. That's 3825 yards over 17 games and 10 yards per game short of 4000.

Brock Purdy had 4300 yards in 16 games on a running team.

This WR room is going to have plenty of opportunity.