To QB Or Not To QB

[Mitch]

If you take a close look at the past ten years of Super Bowl Champions---what jumps out at you is that in 9 of the 10 cases (save Drew Brees in 2010) the winning QB of the Super Bowl was drafted and developed by the winning team:

2013: Joe Flacco (1---2008---Ravens)
2012: Eli Manning (1---2004* trade---Giants)
2011: Aaron Rodgers (1---2005---Packers)
2010: Drew Brees (2---2001---Chargers---UFA Saints 2006)**
2009: Ben Roethlisberger (1---2004---Steelers)
2008: Eli Manning (1---2004---Giants)
2007: Peyton Manning (1---1998---Colts)
2006: Ben Roethlisberger (1---2004---Steelers)
2005: Tom Brady (6---2000---Patriots)
2004: Tom Brady (6---2000---Patriots)

Notice too that in the last 8 years, with the exception of Drew Brees, all of the winning QBs were 1st rounders.

What's interesting is that only the Manning brothers were top 3 picks in the draft.

What this suggests is that in order to increase its chances to win a Super Bowl an organization needs to pick a QB in the 1st round and be patient in developing him, because it usually takes a few years for the QB to win a Super Bowl.

All of the last 10 winning QBs are pocket passers.

When you look at three in particular: Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco---look at what they all have in common:

Good size---and excellent arm strength.

All three of these QBs were passed over by a number of teams in the draft---Roethlisgerger went to the Steelers at #11 in 2004; Rodgers went to the Packers after sliding down the draft to #24 in 2005; and Flacco went to the Ravens at #18 in 2008.

In Flacco's case---it wasn't really until this season that Flacco started to earn the full trust of the Ravens' organization and fans---

Listen to this scout's assessment of Flacco just two years ago:

"But Flacco has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long and not go through his reads quick enough. he also has a tendency to turn the ball over in critical times (six interceptions and three fumbles in five losses in 2010)."

Imagine this---two years later, not only does Flacco win the Super Bowl, he did so by throwing 11 TDs and 0 interceptions---including an amazing 6/7 in the red zone for passes thrown into the end zone.

Just yesterday---in contemplating how the Cardinals are going to defend Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson for the next three to ten years, I was feeling convinced that the best choice the Cardinals could make at #7 this year would be DE/OLB Ziggy Ansuh, because Ansuh has the quickness, suddenness and speed to track these mobile QBs down. So does Jarvis Jones---so does Barkevious Mingo.

However---in looking at the QB situation and seeing how the odds of winning a Super Bowl increase significantly when a team has drafted their QB in the first round and then had the patience to develop him---I am starting to think that the wisest thing the Cardinals could do is make whatever move they can to draft Geno Smith or Mike Glennon in the first round. I am also growing more interested in Landry Jones and Tyler Bray---but Smith and Glennon clearly look like the top 2 to me. I like Tyler Wilson's grit---but he doesn't have the size or arm strength the others possess. Ryan Nassib has the "it" factor, imo. But watching tape of Glennon and Nassib side by side---it's very clear that Glennon is a much stronger passer.

Matt Barkley? I just don't see the arm strength---but I do see smarts and touch.

Landry Jones? Another Flacco type for sure---but not quite as strong an arm, but close enough, imo.

I think Smith will be taken before the Cardinals pick---but Glennon may be there at #7---with the Bills and the Jets drafting right behind us---

I think Glennon's the pick---that is if the Bills, Jets or some other team doesn't trade up in front of us---which I think is very possible.

Fresh off of watching Joe Flacco---teams are going to be more and more enamored with Glennon---

Imagine this---too bad Whisenhunt hadn't realized that Leinart was not his guy beyond Kurt Warner in 2008---because he took DRC at #16 and Flacco went two spots later at #18.

Mike Glennon, the Glendale Cannon.

With Bruce Arians and Tom Moore in the house---no time would be better than now.

 

[az jam]

My top 3 qbs in the draft are Geno Smith, Matt Barkley and Mike Glennon.
Glennon is an enigma. He was the best qb during the Senior Bowl week. Most will say that he is a reach at #7 but with the Bills and Jets needing a qb, he won't be there when we pick in the 2nd round. He needs to put on about 15 to 20 lbs (John Lott would welcome him) but he has the size and arm to become something special. Has already graduated and was and All-ACC Academic member so he does have some smarts.

 

[juza76]

My top 3 qbs in the draft are Geno Smith, Matt Barkley and Mike Glennon.
Glennon is an enigma. He was the best qb during the Senior Bowl week. Most will say that he is a reach at #7 but with the Bills and Jets needing a qb, he won't be there when we pick in the 2nd round. He needs to put on about 15 to 20 lbs (John Lott woul...if they wanna also next year..yd welcome him) but he has the size and arm to become something special. Has already graduated and was and All-ACC Academic member so he does have some smarts.

during week for all coaches best qb was wilson,..at senior bowl game all of them outside of manuel were mediocre..glennon was horrible,,i think has skelton accuracy..i saw a missed one to a wr with no pressure and receiver was 15 yards from him ,,underthrow..pathetic
if they want to suck also next season.yes glennon is the pick

 

[Jetstream Green]

If we go draft, my favorite QB is Wilson but the quality of this class to me no longer warrants sacrificing to draft a QB in the early rounds when other positions of much superior quality exist which is a place of need for Zona. I would like to grab Bray in a later round if he can be had.

 

[Mitch]

during week for all coaches best qb was wilson,..at senior bowl game all of them outside of manuel were mediocre..glennon was horrible,,i think has skelton accuracy..i saw a missed one to a wr with no pressure and receiver was 15 yards from him ,,underthrow..pathetic
if they want to suck also next season.yes glennon is the pick

Juza---do yourself a favor---forget the Senior Bowl---go watch tape of Glennon in his real offense---watch an hour of it---not just five minutes. I would be very surprised if you didn't come away impressed.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Juza---do yourself a favor---forget the Senior Bowl---go watch tape of Glennon in his real offense---watch an hour of it---not just five minutes. I would be very surprised if you didn't come away impressed.

It will also let you know almost immediately that his supporting cast was pretty bad as well. OLine was terrible and receivers dropped like 5+ passes per game including 10 drops against UNC. He has a tendecy of throwing off his back foot which causes some accuracy issues, but a lot of that is almost immediate pressure up the middle which makes it nearly impossible to step up in the pocket and get the forward stride that he needs for his throws.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Juza---do yourself a favor---forget the Senior Bowl---go watch tape of Glennon in his real offense---watch an hour of it---not just five minutes. I would be very surprised if you didn't come away impressed.

I think the most valuable evaluating source is tape from when they played in college...not a generic game without continuity with your fellow players or system and surely not the combine. You draft football players, and the college tape over multiple games shows you the best indication and keeps one from getting sucked into the hype.

 

[DoTheDew]

You're right that we aren't winning a SB until we draft a franchise QB. It's up to our scouts to decide whether or not they believe there's a franchise QB in this draft. It's the worst thing in the world to pass on a franchise QB for another player. But it's the 2nd worst thing to draft a QB early in the 1st round and have him be a bust.

 

[GatorAZ]

Juza---do yourself a favor---forget the Senior Bowl---go watch tape of Glennon in his real offense---watch an hour of it---not just five minutes. I would be very surprised if you didn't come away impressed.

I wasn't. Terrible decision maker and a statue in the pocket.

This is one of the worst QB drafts ever and like always teams will reach. It's Jake Locker/Blaine Gabbert all over again. I would prefer to add talent on the OL and draft a QB next year should Kolb get hurt or regress. Inserting a rookie into an offense that last year was a.) ranked #32 in rushing & YPC and b.) #1 in sacks allowed is a recipe for disaster.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I wasn't. Terrible decision maker and a statue in the pocket.

This is one of the worst QB drafts ever and like always teams will reach. It's Jake Locker/Blaine Gabbert all over again. I would prefer to add talent on the OL and draft a QB next year should Kolb get hurt or regress. Inserting a rookie into an offense that last year was a.) ranked #32 in rushing & YPC and b.) #1 in sacks allowed is a recipe for disaster.

You forgot to mention he likes to throw the ball to the ground or to the other team almost as much as he throws it to his WR's.

And he has a tendency to forget any semblance of footwork when under pressure and sky's his throws to the safety when he throws down the middle.

If you pick a QB before pick 20 THIS YEAR....... You will be REACHING. Before pick 10...you may very well be looking for another job in the next 2 to 3 years.

 

[WildBB]

Glennon is a high risk statue back there.

If you don't have the line wait a year.

Rome wasn't built in an offseason!

 

[JC_AZ]

Flacco is a free agent... Get er Done Mikey

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Juza---do yourself a favor---forget the Senior Bowl---go watch tape of Glennon in his real offense---watch an hour of it---not just five minutes. I would be very surprised if you didn't come away impressed.

+1.

Yet, not impressed enough to reach on a QB and bypass superior talent on the offensive line.

Great analogy Mitch, but let me add one thing about the this year's Superbowl.

The offensive lines that met in the Superbowl were the best of their respective conferences.


NFC:
Niners
Falcons
Packers
Vikings
Seahawks
Redskins

AFC:
Broncos
Patriots
Ravens
Bengals
Texans
Colts


How many of those teams had good, to excellent offensive lines ? Of those teams in the playoffs, how many teams won that, in the end, had the better offensive line ?

The Cardinals have had the cart pulling the horse for so long that they have no chance no matter what talent they bring in. If no one is blocked, nothing will happen.

The Cardinals roster is too far gone when it comes to offensive line talent to play the BPA card. That type of drafting is earned, IMO. You draft and build your team correctly and you can allow your organization that advantage of going BPA.

This team needs blockers

 

[az jam]

This team needs blockers

Totally agree, while this is a bad year for qbs in the draft it is a good year for OLs.

 

[cardpa]

Totally agree, while this is a bad year for qbs in the draft it is a good year for OLs.

Ditto, No QB will last or play well behind a poor line. Build the line first then get a QB.

 

[az jam]

IMO there is not that much separation from the qbs in the draft. There are not standouts like last year. I do think we need to draft a qb to develop but that could come in the 2nd or even 3rd round. Drafting a couple of OL early would certainly make sense.

 

[Duckjake]

Speaking of QBs what's the story on Colby Cameron the Louisiana Tech QB? He threw for 450 yards and 5 Touchdowns against Texas A&M!!!

He isn't even rated as a potential 7th round selection.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Sign Alex Smith and draft o-linemen. There is no QB in this draft that will be as good as Smith now, and maybe not ever. He has developed into a decent QB as his numbers bear out this year. It's a great draft for o-linemen and it is a huge need for the Cardinals so go with the strength of the draft.

I would take Warmack. If we could trade down and still get him, fine, but don't screw with it too much and miss out.

 

[HoodieBets]

Here is the thing if we sign Alex Smith and draft OL we arent going to be good enough for a SB run but we will be good enough not to draft in a position to get a franchise QB. This year might be the highest we pick in the next 5 years so reaching for a QB like Glennon might not be horrible. He is my 2nd favorite QB in the draft behind Geno and he will blow people away at the combine. I would be shocked if he isnt drafted by the jets or bills.

 

[PACardsFan]

The decision to hire Arians is looking better by the day. We have huge decisions to make regarding the QB position & it's tough to deny his expertise in that area.

Let's not forget the 3 most critical positions that Super Bowl winning teams have in place:

1. QB
2. Speed Rusher
3. OLine

We lack ALL 3 & there's no way we patch up all 3 in one offseason. The QB position is the most critical, but also the riskiest in this years draft. If you shore up the OL, Arians can make a good QB look great & an average QB look good. Conversely, with Kaepernick, Wilson & Bradford, we will most definitely need a freak that can get to the QB. My feeling is that we let Arians decide on a good QB in free agency & we get either a stud pass rusher or stud OLineman with the 7th pick.

 

[Totally_Red]

The decision to hire Arians is looking better by the day. We have huge decisions to make regarding the QB position & it's tough to deny his expertise in that area.

Let's not forget the 3 most critical positions that Super Bowl winning teams have in place:

1. QB
2. Speed Rusher
3. OLine

We lack ALL 3 & there's no way we patch up all 3 in one offseason. The QB position is the most critical, but also the riskiest in this years draft. If you shore up the OL, Arians can make a good QB look great & an average QB look good. Conversely, with Kaepernick, Wilson & Bradford, we will most definitely need a freak that can get to the QB. My feeling is that we let Arians decide on a good QB in free agency & we get either a stud pass rusher or stud OLineman with the 7th pick.

You make some good points. I think upgrading the offensive line is critical for improving both the ground and air attack. In listening closely to Bruce Arians, it's apparent that he loves play action. That means he's going to want a better running attack. That probably means improving the Cardinals guards maybe through the draft or maybe by moving one of the tackles to guard.

Quarterback is important, but I get the feeling that he's not as obsessed with drafting one early as Cardinal Nation is. Maybe he's blowing smoke, but he's sounds like he really wants to see what he has on the roster.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

You make some good points. I think upgrading the offensive line is critical for improving both the ground and air attack. In listening closely to Bruce Arians, it's apparent that he loves play action. That means he's going to want a better running attack. That probably means improving the Cardinals guards maybe through the draft or maybe by moving one of the tackles to guard.

Quarterback is important, but I get the feeling that he's not as obsessed with drafting one early as Cardinal Nation is. Maybe he's blowing smoke, but he's sounds like he really wants to see what he has on the roster.

QB is a huge issue on this team, but why force the QB situation this year, when the projected opportunities for next offseason is so much more promising.

Not to mention this year's draft is full of great offensive line prospects.

 

[john h]

If you take a close look at the past ten years of Super Bowl Champions---what jumps out at you is that in 9 of the 10 cases (save Drew Brees in 2010) the winning QB of the Super Bowl was drafted and developed by the winning team:

2013: Joe Flacco (1---2008---Ravens)
2012: Eli Manning (1---2004* trade---Giants)
2011: Aaron Rodgers (1---2005---Packers)
2010: Drew Brees (2---2001---Chargers---UFA Saints 2006)**
2009: Ben Roethlisberger (1---2004---Steelers)
2008: Eli Manning (1---2004---Giants)
2007: Peyton Manning (1---1998---Colts)
2006: Ben Roethlisberger (1---2004---Steelers)
2005: Tom Brady (6---2000---Patriots)
2004: Tom Brady (6---2000---Patriots)

Notice too that in the last 8 years, with the exception of Drew Brees, all of the winning QBs were 1st rounders.

What's interesting is that only the Manning brothers were top 3 picks in the draft.

What this suggests is that in order to increase its chances to win a Super Bowl an organization needs to pick a QB in the 1st round and be patient in developing him, because it usually takes a few years for the QB to win a Super Bowl.

All of the last 10 winning QBs are pocket passers.

When you look at three in particular: Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco---look at what they all have in common:

Good size---and excellent arm strength.

All three of these QBs were passed over by a number of teams in the draft---Roethlisgerger went to the Steelers at #11 in 2004; Rodgers went to the Packers after sliding down the draft to #24 in 2005; and Flacco went to the Ravens at #18 in 2008.

In Flacco's case---it wasn't really until this season that Flacco started to earn the full trust of the Ravens' organization and fans---

Listen to this scout's assessment of Flacco just two years ago:

"But Flacco has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long and not go through his reads quick enough. he also has a tendency to turn the ball over in critical times (six interceptions and three fumbles in five losses in 2010)."

Imagine this---two years later, not only does Flacco win the Super Bowl, he did so by throwing 11 TDs and 0 interceptions---including an amazing 6/7 in the red zone for passes thrown into the end zone.

Just yesterday---in contemplating how the Cardinals are going to defend Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson for the next three to ten years, I was feeling convinced that the best choice the Cardinals could make at #7 this year would be DE/OLB Ziggy Ansuh, because Ansuh has the quickness, suddenness and speed to track these mobile QBs down. So does Jarvis Jones---so does Barkevious Mingo.

However---in looking at the QB situation and seeing how the odds of winning a Super Bowl increase significantly when a team has drafted their QB in the first round and then had the patience to develop him---I am starting to think that the wisest thing the Cardinals could do is make whatever move they can to draft Geno Smith or Mike Glennon in the first round. I am also growing more interested in Landry Jones and Tyler Bray---but Smith and Glennon clearly look like the top 2 to me. I like Tyler Wilson's grit---but he doesn't have the size or arm strength the others possess. Ryan Nassib has the "it" factor, imo. But watching tape of Glennon and Nassib side by side---it's very clear that Glennon is a much stronger passer.

Matt Barkley? I just don't see the arm strength---but I do see smarts and touch.

Landry Jones? Another Flacco type for sure---but not quite as strong an arm, but close enough, imo.

I think Smith will be taken before the Cardinals pick---but Glennon may be there at #7---with the Bills and the Jets drafting right behind us---

I think Glennon's the pick---that is if the Bills, Jets or some other team doesn't trade up in front of us---which I think is very possible.

Fresh off of watching Joe Flacco---teams are going to be more and more enamored with Glennon---

Imagine this---too bad Whisenhunt hadn't realized that Leinart was not his guy beyond Kurt Warner in 2008---because he took DRC at #16 and Flacco went two spots later at #18.

Mike Glennon, the Glendale Cannon.

With Bruce Arians and Tom Moore in the house---no time would be better than now.

Great info Mitch. History has way of repeating itself. I have said I would take a QB #1 in the next three drafts. More if necessary. We have a bus but no bus driver so why bother drafting more passengers. I can argue with which QB we would draft but not if we should draft a QB. Wilson, Smith, or whoever one of these guys is likely to pay off.

 

[LVCARDFREAK]

QB is a huge issue on this team, but why force the QB situation this year, when the projected opportunities for next offseason is so much more promising.

Not to mention this year's draft is full of great offensive line prospects.

1. No new Head Coach in their right mind is going to "look to next year" He is going to want to make his mark now, and drafting a couple of Guards in the first two rounds wont do that

2. You simpley cannot win w/o a QB...PERIOD. If the Cards go into the season with 2 new offensive linemen, Kolb, and Beanie and RW, and with the removal of Horton, this team will be as bad as last year.

Arians will take a QB early. And he'll tie himself to that QB for the next 4 years

 

[HoodieBets]

1. No new Head Coach in their right mind is going to "look to next year" He is going to want to make his mark now, and drafting a couple of Guards in the first two rounds wont do that

2. You simpley cannot win w/o a QB...PERIOD. If the Cards go into the season with 2 new offensive linemen, Kolb, and Beanie and RW, and with the removal of Horton, this team will be as bad as last year.

Arians will take a QB early. And he'll tie himself to that QB for the next 4 years

Agreed, no way will he not draft a QB this year, teach him up and hope he wins the preseason battle to start. It will either be Glennon in RD1 or Wilson/Barkley Rd2.