Todd Gurley gets paid

[Solar7]

Sigh . . . the old “I’m going to make up something you did not say because I don’t have a substantive response to your argument.” So tired.

Find one place I “anointed” the Rams anything.

Find one place I claimed they’d be an “unstoppable juggernaut for five years” or even one year, or even a juggernaut (much less unstoppable).

Or anything that even comes close to resembling either of those statements you’re trying to attribute to me.

I was just pointing out that the core of yiur argument is “they have too much talent” and how outright silly that is a premise for denigrating a team or prophesizing their failure. You point out the eagles as a failure but that’s only one example. The counter to that is the Seahawks who successfully parlayed a rookie contract QB into an incredibly talented team for a sustained period. Wilson’s rookie contract allowed them to hold onto other talented players and acquire other studs like Avril and jimmy graham. And it seemed to work in the opposite of what happened with the eagles.

Fine, you didn't anoint anyone anything, but I also didn't claim the Rams were going to be bad - I said "this is a team that needs to win now." The core of my argument isn't that they have too much talent, it's that the players they have on their roster aren't going to be financially sustainable because they're all hitting at the same basic time.

Keep in mind the Rams didn't draft in the top two rounds this year, didn't have a #1 in 2017, and they won't have a second in 2019, which is a concerning position to be in for the overall health of your team, because you're going to have to pay vets to fill the spaces instead of guys that you have on the cheap.

Exactly. On both points. Goff doesn’t hit for a while. Gives them incredible flexibility for a while. It’s what we’re hoping for with Rosen.

And every team has to manage to the cap. Isn’t it more desirable to have to figure it out with a talented core where you have to choose which to retain and which to let go than it is to be fretting about where to just find the talent? Clue for you guys . . . The former position (the rams impending “doom” according to a few of you) is a much more desirable position than the latter (the cards as Fitz retires, PP, David Johnson and jones reach 30, etc).

You're not realizing how soon Goff is going to want to get paid. Next year is his last year before his option. You don't think he's going to want to get an extension if he plays like he did last year? The only reason other guys make it to their 5th year option is if the team still isn't sold on them (Winston and Mariota come to mind). Next offseason, there will likely be significant buzz about extending Goff, if the Rams succeed again.

And no, I don't envy the position of needing to overpay players to retain your core, and potentially lose them all, with no draft picks waiting in the wings to take over. The most successful teams of the past two decades haven't done that, they've maintained a successful and balanced roster. I'd be super amped to be a Rams fan this season and possibly next, but terrified of anything after 2020. Unfortunately, this season could turn out for them like 2016 did for us. I have a lot of hope for this Cardinals team... next year.

 

[Town Drunk]

The extension would kick in after his 5th year option.

Rams are in a good spot right now. They can win now but still have building blocks for the future. I’m pretty happy as a Rams fan. Been a long time coming.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Extension. That means guaranteed money will be spread over the life and big hit still comes later.

Yes but we are not talking Russell Wilson rookie numbers here where he was making peanuts at $700K before his extension.

Goff was the 1st overall pick, so next season in 2019 he will already be making $9M before the extension. Throw in the extension Signing bonus numbers and that could go up to $15M for 2019 which is a nice chunk of change.

In 2020 with an extension that number will skyrocket to $25M+. To me $25M+ is a big hit and that is just two seasons away.

Hell lets say they don't do an extension and pick up the 5th year option for 2020. In that case Goff will get the average of the top 10 QBs salary's which currently is looking to be around $25M+. That's before Aaron Rodgers gets his new contract which will push the average even higher.

 

[mojorizen7]

Those three new faces on defense are some of the more maligned personalities in the league, and their greatest star is holding out. Cooks is on his third team before his second contract - there's got to be a reason for that.

True. Didn't keep Seattle from winning a title and sniffing a couple more. We'll see how it plays out. I think you've got to factor in Wade Phillips here though. He's handled these type of players well in the past.

There are multiple players that are either older or within 12 months of the head coach by age. I'm sorry, that team loses a few unexpected ones and that locker room is going to be hard to handle.

It's a young team with a few veterans and a young HC. Not sure what your point is. Again, we'll see. I see a first place team barring dramatic injuries. The NFC West is not a good division right now outside of the Rams.

I'm only calling them a "dream team" because every talking head seems to think they're already unstoppable.

I know. I get it. The talking heads started the talk and fans are regurgitating it without looking more closely at how the Rams have built this team. It's not a dream team like that Philly squad, or like what we're seeing in the NBA. That was my main point.

 

[Warnertop3]

DJ should get more considering less wear & tear.

Not sure it will play out that way. Injuries are a subtle negotiating tool...and not in the players favor. DJ is great. But he and Todd are two different players.

how pissed is Aaron Donald at this point and what is the Rams hold up getting him signed over these other guys?

I don't think it is like that. I think the Rams brass is timing it just right.

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"I got this."

Offensive head coach, and the team is in LA. They have to be entertaining, and most casual football fans enjoy offense a hell of a lot more than defense.

But, that is just my opinion on what the Rams are thinking, I certainly do not agree with it, since Aaron Donald is one of the best players in football right now. He is just unbelievably gifted, and a student of the game as well.

He deserves to be paid over guys like flippin' Brandon Cooks.

But, whatever, maybe Donald is a free agent next year, and with the Cardinasl Cap room situation, we can sign him.

Again, different situations. I think in the right timing, the Rams will secure Donald.

The Rams are going to crash and burn with these contracts in short order. They're going to need to win now.

They are built to win now, but the crash and burn stuff, well, other guys have made the case, it is a bit hyperbolic. Nice problem to have, with all this young talent.

Where'd I say they weren't?

But I think they've got a VERY short window with the way the team is put together, and I think it will scuttle them in a year or two.

Again with this theme. The window is large, relative to NFL 2018 realities. It will always be hard to duplicate what the Niners of the '80s and '90s did, and the current Patriots, but the Rams are in a good place. We will see.

Yes that is the Rams achilles heel. Whitworth and Sullivan will probably retire at years end and Havenstein, Saffold and Brown are at the end of their contracts. I think they will try to keep Havenstein and depend on depth,

A good mix of youth and experience, the Rams have an excellent O-line coach in Kromer, and some interesting young talent. We are in a pretty good place here.

The Rams were the second-oldest offensive line in the NFL last year — did they add anything besides a 3rd round pick to help? We can tell you from first-hand experience that it doesn't much matter how many great offensive skill-position players you have if you lose 2 starting OL.

I think Mojo or Rams1 answered this...

I'm not sold on Goff until his head coach doesn't have to call in adjustments for him.

This was totally blown out of proportion. Do you think other coaches don't take advantage of that Mic? Jared has this offense down well, and is learning quickly. Besides, I think he is still 23, or just turning 24.

I have a very strong feeling that this is going to be one of those "dream teams" that falls apart because McVay is too young to handle it all, even with Wade Phillips.

McVay is not in over his head, at all. Just look at my Avatar. Confidence, my man. Confidence, and guts.

What happens if Robert Woods doesn't pan out?

This just in: He panned out nicely last year, beyond expectations.

Those three new faces on defense are some of the more maligned personalities in the league, and their greatest star is holding out. Cooks is on his third team before his second contract - there's got to be a reason for that.

There are multiple players that are either older or within 12 months of the head coach by age. I'm sorry, that team loses a few unexpected ones and that locker room is going to be hard to handle.

I'm only calling them a "dream team" because every talking head seems to think they're already unstoppable.

They are melding together nicely. Peters and Talib are tight, and working like a machine together. Suh is awesome. Cooks is SO professional. All good here.

 

[cardncubfan]

Not sure it will play out that way. Injuries are a subtle negotiating tool...and not in the players favor. DJ is great. But he and Todd are two different players.

This is correct with DJ being the superior player. IMO of course. With what the Rams just paid TG is of course going to set the market for RBs like Gurley, Bell, & DJ. I think Bell is going to want way more but I don't think there is that big of difference between the 3. DJ is a bit larger than Gurley so I think he has a little power running capabilities. Probably a better receiver as well.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Yes but we are not talking Russell Wilson rookie numbers here where he was making peanuts at $700K before his extension.

Goff was the 1st overall pick, so next season in 2019 he will already be making $9M before the extension. Throw in the extension Signing bonus numbers and that could go up to $15M for 2019 which is a nice chunk of change.

In 2020 with an extension that number will skyrocket to $25M+. To me $25M+ is a big hit and that is just two seasons away.

Hell lets say they don't do an extension and pick up the 5th year option for 2020. In that case Goff will get the average of the top 10 QBs salary's which currently is looking to be around $25M+. That's before Aaron Rodgers gets his new contract which will push the average even higher.

First $15 for a high level QB is pocket change.

Next the $25M you’re apparently scared of . . . that’s THREE seasons away. This season and next are still nicely cost contained for a QB.

I can’t believe any of you are trying to paint a picture of doom and gloom for a team CLEARLY in the rise. They’ve made good moves to date. Managing how things unfold in the future isn’t that difficult when you have REALLY high end studs like a QB a RB and Donald.

 

[Dback Jon]

First $15 for a high level QB is pocket change.

Next the $25M you’re apparently scared of . . . that’s THREE seasons away. This season and next are still nicely cost contained for a QB.

I can’t believe any of you are trying to paint a picture of doom and gloom for a team CLEARLY in the rise. They’ve made good moves to date. Managing how things unfold in the future isn’t that difficult when you have REALLY high end studs like a QB a RB and Donald.

Yup - I'd be more worried about locker room chemistry and can Goff go beyond his coach whispering in his ear.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Yup - I'd be more worried about locker room chemistry and can Goff go beyond his coach whispering in his ear.

agreed.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Yup - I'd be more worried about locker room chemistry and can Goff go beyond his coach whispering in his ear.

Yeah seems more legit. There are a few oddballs. Talented but oddballs. Never know how that works out.

 

[Rams1Fan]

People are talking about being set up for cap hell/dismantling with the contracts signed and soon to be signed. Restrictions will be there. Not that you are in it right now. 2020 is likely when it would hit, 2021 definitely. 2018 and 2019 are all-in years. Even 2019 is iffy, but they could make it fly.

In reality there hasn't been cap hell for years. Not really. With ~10 mill cap increases, we've been in a goldilocks situation. But it won't go on forever. Teams set up to pay big money in the 2020-2021 seasons are going to have those contracts go into the new CBA, and that is a BIG QUESTION MARK. I won't go into it much now, but I would expect the cap to be flat to down (best case scenario) for 2022-2025. It could be sharply down.

People forget that when the new CBA was signed, we had a flat cap for a few years, including one DOWN year. That under a CBA that was a 'happy days are here again' scenario. The next one will not be that.

Of course, some of this can be stopped by not signing guys, but then the Rams are without those players. Will they let Donald go so they can keep 3 other guys?

Then there is the effects of stripping depth. Just because you can fit say 15 or so good players under the cap, doesn't mean you can have a depth filled roster. With 53 people on the roster, and many of them still on rookie deals, those guys will move on. What happens then is you either get lucky with current and future draft picks or you have to sign guys off the street for minimum alongside those draft picks/UDFA. Thus overall quality on the bottom 2/3rds of the roster tends to decline.

Obviously the 2018 Rams didn't infuse alot of young draft picks to the pool (no 1st or 2nd rounder, top pick being a low end 3rd #89 overall). Rams don't have a 2nd rounder next year. Not a huge draw down, but still 3 of your top 4 picks for a two year period. It's basically can be viewed as busting on 1st and a 2nd rounder one year and a 2nd the next in addition to whatever busts come out of this years and next years class. Of course you could hit on a few lower rounders, but this is rare. Expect that not to happen.


This is what you need to look at. It'll show you your players, via positional grouping. As you can see, there's a ton of important positions and groups barren by 2019-2020 until you make decisions that will decrease that cap space.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/yearly/cap/


In other words, here are the main guys you need to re-sign or be replaced by 2020. (and obviously as a Cards fan, I might not know about a 3rd string 2nd or 3rd year LB or whatever that might also need a new contract in a couple of years).

So you have a bunch of core guys and competent starters to sign/replace/let go with that cap space for 2019-2020.

Goff
Marcus Peters
Rodger Saffold
Jamon Brown
Rob Havenstein
Suh
Donald
Longacre
Hager
Lamarcus Joyner
Brockers
Talib
Higbee
Whitworth
Zuerlein

Many of these are high dollar positions. QB, LT, DT, CB, etc.

Including most of your OL, DL, secondary.

Then you have anyone else that surprises. Draft picks pool. Everyone else to fill out the roster and fill holes due to sudden ineffectiveness/injuries.

What happens if Robert Woods doesn't pan out? Yeah it's not a huge hit going forward, but it's not just THAT, it's also the cost of replacing him. If the Rams then try to go out and spend 15 million a year on a replacement, that will effect everything else.

As you can see, you have the core of your team to re-sign and only have that much space.

So yeah, the Rams have decisions. Big decisions. They can't pay them all, and if we seen anything, the Rams also might decide they like someone else's players more.

Think of it this way. If I told you that of Peters, Saffold, Havestein, Joyner, Higbee, Whitworth, Donald, Suh, Brockers, Talib, and Zuerlein that say, 8 of those 11 weren't going to be on the team this year.... The talk about the Rams and what they can achieve this year would be alot lower. It's very possible it's going to be an exodus something along these lines. Maybe they pick up a guy here or there from somewhere else, but there is just no way they are going to keep these guys.

That's the point. The Rams are in position to pick and choose, but they are going to be forced to pick and choose. (This is also why people have been questioning WHO they have been choosing and FOR HOW MUCH.)

Some are older like Whitworth, Suh, Talib. Lots of that 'cap space' you talk about are from their deals expiring. But they also create major holes at expensive positions.

110 million isn't enough. You'd need more like 210 million.

But this is the NFL. One way or another, eventually the cap gets in the way. 2017-2019 was/is the Rams chance to shine either as a brilliant firework or as a dud.

This years #1 went to Cooks who is 24. That is quite different then no no. #1. The second we lost this year reaps a 3rd rounder next year. Add in a third rounder for losing Tru and while we have no #2 next year we have 3 #3's. So next year is fine.

Yeah we gave up #1;'s for Goff but look how that worked out in the 2017 draft.

Kupp (3) - 2nd most receiving yards by a rookie last year
John Johnson (3) - Starting saftey. Got a 86 grade by PFF.
Ebukem (4) - Contributed at OLB last year. Will start this year.
Everert (2)- Contributed at TE last year. May start this year. Scored 2 tds last year.
Josh Reynolds (4) - Backup to Woods. Scored a TD last year

 

[Warnertop3]

This is correct with DJ being the superior player. IMO of course. With what the Rams just paid TG is of course going to set the market for RBs like Gurley, Bell, & DJ. I think Bell is going to want way more but I don't think there is that big of difference between the 3. DJ is a bit larger than Gurley so I think he has a little power running capabilities. Probably a better receiver as well.

Coming off an injury, this is kind of a prove-it year for Johnson. I like both players. I’ll take Gurley. You like your guy better. What a shock!

Yup - I'd be more worried about locker room chemistry and can Goff go beyond his coach whispering in his ear.

Not worried. You’re just looking for SOMETHING, some sign that the Rams may falter this year. The new players are blending with the team great. Wade Phillips helps. Sean McVay helps.

The whole narrative that Goff is lost without whispers from McVay is a joke. Goff is a sharp dude. He has a great feel for the game, and field vision.

Who knows how it all plays out. I’ll say this: in my 45 years of following this team, including the GSOT, this looks like the most complete and best team ever.

 

[Solar7]

This years #1 went to Cooks who is 24. That is quite different then no no. #1. The second we lost this year reaps a 3rd rounder next year. Add in a third rounder for losing Tru and while we have no #2 next year we have 3 #3's. So next year is fine.

Yeah we gave up #1;'s for Goff but look how that worked out in the 2017 draft.

Kupp (3) - 2nd most receiving yards by a rookie last year
John Johnson (3) - Starting saftey. Got a 86 grade by PFF.
Ebukem (4) - Contributed at OLB last year. Will start this year.
Everert (2)- Contributed at TE last year. May start this year. Scored 2 tds last year.
Josh Reynolds (4) - Backup to Woods. Scored a TD last year

Right. It's quite different than no #1, on account of the fact YOU DON'T HAVE TO PAY A FIRST ROUND DRAFT PICK AN 80 MILLION DOLLAR CONTRACT. I mean, that's the entire point here. Instead of having a potential top talent on the cheap, you went out on the market and found someone you have to spend a ton of capital on.

Are you sure you're getting that 3rd rounder when you end up signing Suh? I doubt it. Regardless, the chances of a 3rd round pick developing into a strong starter or blue chip player is pretty damn low. Kupp is good, and maybe Johnson, but the other guys aren't impressing me. Again, you're missing out on all of the cheap, homegrown solid talent by losing these picks, and your window will close faster than most for it.

 

[Rams1Fan]

Right. It's quite different than no #1, on account of the fact YOU DON'T HAVE TO PAY A FIRST ROUND DRAFT PICK AN 80 MILLION DOLLAR CONTRACT. I mean, that's the entire point here. Instead of having a potential top talent on the cheap, you went out on the market and found someone you have to spend a ton of capital on.

Are you sure you're getting that 3rd rounder when you end up signing Suh? I doubt it. Regardless, the chances of a 3rd round pick developing into a strong starter or blue chip player is pretty damn low. Kupp is good, and maybe Johnson, but the other guys aren't impressing me. Again, you're missing out on all of the cheap, homegrown solid talent by losing these picks, and your window will close faster than most for it.

Right Potential. As in NOT A SURE thing.The Key is they used it on a 24 year old (Cooks) that is wrapped up for 5 years.

SUH has zero impact on compensatory picks as Miami released him. So yeah. I';m sure. And you can package two thirds for a second. Leaving them a standard draft

What you are missing here is the Rams are giving a young QB weapons. How many young QB's carry a team themselves. Its a sure way to damage a QB. See Bradford.