Top of the Draft Picks 1-7: Prediction

[cardpa]

With Smith as well as Warmack, the honest answer is "We don't know."

We don't know what Keim and his scouts are saying about each player nor how Arians, Moore or Bowles view these guys within the context of the scheme and how they feel each prospect might fit in.

To paraphrase Jim Mora: "We may think we know...but we don't.

We can concoct all kinds of scenarios and offer up sage wisdom about how we evaluate specific players. And we can dismiss what others might say as "hogwash", "dummass" or whatever.

But truth be told - the decision-makers are human beings with their own fair share of wild-ass quirks.

Geno Smith? Why not? Warmack? It could happen. Lane Johnson? I don't think so, but you never know - maybe a scout visiting the Oklahoma boonies "saw something." The Star?" Maybe Bowles was really persuasive and made the case for a big guy in the middle.

We're all basing our predictions on "what we know" - which is fine; except that we probably only know 2/3 of what we need to know. Plus the accuracy of our predictions are based on player and Board info that we'll never get to see.

Anything can happen within the Top 7 (if we even remain in the top 7).

IN other words everything is fair game at this point and we really don't have any idea what's going to happen.

 

[JeffGollin]

IN other words everything is fair game at this point and we really don't have any idea what's going to happen.

We have an idea (& are more likely to be right than casual fans or if we merely flipped a coin). But, if I were a gambler, I wouldn't bet the farm on most of the draft/FA/Trade predictions some very smart Cardinal fans make on this board or elsewhere on the blogosphere.

 

[john h]

1. Chiefs: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama.

They will re-sign LT Brandon Albert, which means they won't be drafting LT Luke Joeckel. As they ponder the various options, the thought of pairing Albert with Warmack in order to open bigger holes for RB Jamaal Charles has Andy Reid foaming and flailing on the war-room rug. Warmack is the best player in the draft, so the pundits will be effusive in their praise of the pick.

2. Jaguars: Demontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M.

Moore is perfect fit for their 43 defense. He defends the run with tenacity and he is adept at pressuring the QB. He will be Casey Bradley's version of DE Chris Clemons.

3. Raiders: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah.

Tommy Kelly is getting older and Richard Seymour is on the way out. Lotulelei is the perfect fit at the right spot.

4. Eagles: Tavon Austin, WR/RB, West Virginia.

Talk about perfect fits. Austin is taylor-made for Chip Kelly's offense, which is all about exploiting mismatches with electric, speed players.

5. Lions: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St.

How about replacing Kyle Vanden Bosch with a younger, more athletic and quicker version.

6. Browns: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia.

Ray Horton's conversion to the 34 defense just got a great deal easier and more exciting as Jones will wreak havoc on the backside edge from the ROLB position.

7. Cardinals: Luke Joeckel, T, Texas A&M.

The Cardinals are surprised to see him available---the only two players rated ahead of Joeckel on their draft board (Warmack and Jones) are now off the board, so Joeckel is the pick. Steve Keim will see if he can get trade value for Levi Brown. If not, Brown will be kicked inside to compete for one of the guard spots and battle Bobby Massie for the RT job.

I have seen Joeckel rated the best player in the draft bar none by several big gurus. I doubt he gets to us. I have not got to see him play so have nothing to offer but I am guessing he is a starter next season.

 

[Reddog]

Switch pick 1 with pick 7 and you will probably be right. An OG will not be the first pick in the draft. Joeckel is the best player in the draft, you don't pass on him even if you have a good LT. The Cards like Warmack and I hope he is there and they take him when they pick.

I have heard talk that they could move Albert to OG in which case if you are dead set against an OG at #1 they can take Joeckel and then they have the flexibility that they wont have with Warmack.

 

[Mitch]

I have heard talk that they could move Albert to OG in which case if you are dead set against an OG at #1 they can take Joeckel and then they have the flexibility that they wont have with Warmack.

Excellent point. Do they still pay Albert LT money, however? Would he be amenable to sliding down to guard?

In a few weeks we should know.

 

[LuckyNumber11]

Why?

I can't tell you why, just how the NFL works. I guess guard just doesn't make a big enough impact on the game

 

[Lagerfilled]

Couldn't disagree more! Just ask the teams that had to play against John Hannah, Larry Allen, Steve Hutchinson, and Jahri Evans. Bet they would argue about the impact not being big enough. A top OG plays every offensive snap and influences both the run game and the pass. I'd argue that their isn't a bigger impact on the productivity of a good offense.

 

[LuckyNumber11]

Couldn't disagree more! Just ask the teams that had to play against John Hannah, Larry Allen, Steve Hutchinson, and Jahri Evans. Bet they would argue about the impact not being big enough. A top OG plays every offensive snap and influences both the run game and the pass. I'd argue that their isn't a bigger impact on the productivity of a good offense.

I'm looking at it from a GM's perspective, the tackle position faces the best players (See JJ Watt), the center helps with alignment and the guard executes. So the guard is the least important position on the line. The last guard to be taken in the top ten was in 1997 that was Chris Naeole and only 25 have ever been selected in the top 10 period and there has never been one taken #1 overall.

I'm not saying its not worth it, I'm saying that from the viewpoint of the front office taking a guard in the top ten is often a reach

 

[football karma]

You can find outstanding guards later in the draft

Jabari Evans was a fourth rd pick(2011 and 2012 all pro)
Carl nicks was a 5th round pick (2011 all pro)
Marshall Yanda was a 3rd round pick (2011 and 2012 all pro)

 

[BACH]

Why can't a OG be the first pick?

If he is the best player in the draft and your team needs a guard explain to me how taking a lesser talent is justifiable.

Cause the reasoning of "he is just a guard" carries no weight.

Ask the Cowboys what Larry Allen was worth to their offense and how many rings he helped get.

Because G perceived as the easiest position to find a quality starter and this draft is deep at G.

It's a value thing. Warmack might be that 98+ prospect that only comes once a decade, but if you can a 90% G prospect in the lower second, why not take the 94% OT prospect, since the value of the second round OTs are less than 75% in terms of value

 

[oaken1]

I would be thrilled with Warmack as the #7 pick.....followed by Montgomery in the 2nd and Bray in the 3rd

 

[LuckyNumber11]

Because G perceived as the easiest position to find a quality starter and this draft is deep at G.

It's a value thing. Warmack might be that 98+ prospect that only comes once a decade, but if you can a 90% G prospect in the lower second, why not take the 94% OT prospect, since the value of the second round OTs are less than 75% in terms of value

BINGO