Trade out of first round, collect picks for 2013

Redheart

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I usually kind of hate trade down scenarios, because they tend to be based on a fan's expectation of what a team that they're unfamiliar with might desperately want, and then assume that they'll give up too much to get whatever player it is that we don't want (in this case, the usual suspect is Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan).

On the way in to work this morning, I was listening to the ESPN First Draft podcast, which is as annoying as you'd expect a draft podcast that puts together Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay to be. That being said, it was pretty clear that even these hucksters are having a very difficult time getting excited for the picks in the first two-thirds of the first round.

Yes, the 2013 draft has a pretty clear first tier of 6-8 players, but if you compared that group to the draft classes of the last two seasons, would they even be included? I have my doubts.

Several years ago, the Browns under Eric Magnini traded down multiple times in the 2009 draft from their original position of 5th overall to 21st overall, eventually picking Alex Mack. Two years ago, the Browns traded with the Falcons from the sixth-overall pick (used on Julio Jones) to the 21st overall selection again, use to take Phil Taylor, picking up a 2nd, 4th, and future first-round pick in the process.

I'd love to see the Cards skip down the draft board with an eye on picking up 3rd-5th round draft picks in 2013 and 1st and 2nd round draft picks in 2014. Unless you're Adam Schein, there's little hope for the 2013 Arizona Cardinals season to be successful, unless you truly believe that Ken Whisenhunt somehow left 5 or 6 wins on the field last year.

Re-build the depth on the team and enable yourself to part ways with Daryn Colledge, Adam Snyder, and maybe Kerry Rhodes, and then have the ammunition to identify some top skill position players in 2014.

+1.

I would expect this of Bidwill$.

Not only is it time to announce that we are "re-building", to explain the butt-whippin' that is coming; but those later round picks are "cheaper, heh-heh"!
 

ARZCardinals

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Yea, Julio Jones has been a total waste.

Bet the Browns like that trade as much as we did not selecting Suggs.

You stay at 7 and take the best player
 

WildBB

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I think that we're going to find that there will be as many--if not more--quality starters chosen in the 2nd 25 picks in this draft as there are in the first 25 selections. In that environment, you're better off pushing that draft capital into the future, when you're going to have a better chance of locating elite talent, or moving into a position to get it.

Well, we'll just disagree on that note. Show me a draft in the last few years where this is the case. Nobody knows about next year, where we will be drafting. This year we know about and I'd predict an impact player will be available where we sit presently. Now it's up to Keim and Co. to locate and develop that guy and put him in position to contribute long term, of which I see a bevy of prospects.

Also when talking about a lack of QB depth this draft, Arians said that's just a cop out. So they will be targeting picks at some point to make impact.
 

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I usually kind of hate trade down scenarios, because they tend to be based on a fan's expectation of what a team that they're unfamiliar with might desperately want, and then assume that they'll give up too much to get whatever player it is that we don't want (in this case, the usual suspect is Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan).

On the way in to work this morning, I was listening to the ESPN First Draft podcast, which is as annoying as you'd expect a draft podcast that puts together Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay to be. That being said, it was pretty clear that even these hucksters are having a very difficult time getting excited for the picks in the first two-thirds of the first round.

Yes, the 2013 draft has a pretty clear first tier of 6-8 players, but if you compared that group to the draft classes of the last two seasons, would they even be included? I have my doubts.

Several years ago, the Browns under Eric Magnini traded down multiple times in the 2009 draft from their original position of 5th overall to 21st overall, eventually picking Alex Mack. Two years ago, the Browns traded with the Falcons from the sixth-overall pick (used on Julio Jones) to the 21st overall selection again, use to take Phil Taylor, picking up a 2nd, 4th, and future first-round pick in the process.

I'd love to see the Cards skip down the draft board with an eye on picking up 3rd-5th round draft picks in 2013 and 1st and 2nd round draft picks in 2014. Unless you're Adam Schein, there's little hope for the 2013 Arizona Cardinals season to be successful, unless you truly believe that Ken Whisenhunt somehow left 5 or 6 wins on the field last year.

Re-build the depth on the team and enable yourself to part ways with Daryn Colledge, Adam Snyder, and maybe Kerry Rhodes, and then have the ammunition to identify some top skill position players in 2014.


I totally agree. Posted something similar two weeks ago:

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/f4/cardinals-need-to-trade-out-of-7-overall-pick-190778.html

We have so many holes to file that if we could pick up some extra 2nd and 3rd round picks it would be huge. We don't even have to move out of the 1st round to do so.
 

john h

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I usually kind of hate trade down scenarios, because they tend to be based on a fan's expectation of what a team that they're unfamiliar with might desperately want, and then assume that they'll give up too much to get whatever player it is that we don't want (in this case, the usual suspect is Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan).

On the way in to work this morning, I was listening to the ESPN First Draft podcast, which is as annoying as you'd expect a draft podcast that puts together Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay to be. That being said, it was pretty clear that even these hucksters are having a very difficult time getting excited for the picks in the first two-thirds of the first round.

Yes, the 2013 draft has a pretty clear first tier of 6-8 players, but if you compared that group to the draft classes of the last two seasons, would they even be included? I have my doubts.

Several years ago, the Browns under Eric Magnini traded down multiple times in the 2009 draft from their original position of 5th overall to 21st overall, eventually picking Alex Mack. Two years ago, the Browns traded with the Falcons from the sixth-overall pick (used on Julio Jones) to the 21st overall selection again, use to take Phil Taylor, picking up a 2nd, 4th, and future first-round pick in the process.

I'd love to see the Cards skip down the draft board with an eye on picking up 3rd-5th round draft picks in 2013 and 1st and 2nd round draft picks in 2014. Unless you're Adam Schein, there's little hope for the 2013 Arizona Cardinals season to be successful, unless you truly believe that Ken Whisenhunt somehow left 5 or 6 wins on the field last year.

Re-build the depth on the team and enable yourself to part ways with Daryn Colledge, Adam Snyder, and maybe Kerry Rhodes, and then have the ammunition to identify some top skill position players in 2014.

I prefer quality over quantity so hope to stay in our #7 slot. The odds on getting a much better player at the #7 position exceed those you would get in round 2. I really cannot imagine the new Cards regime doing this. I put the odds at 100-1 we would trade into round 2. I could see us moving up a couple of positions but not out of top 10 IMHO.
 

MadCardDisease

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I prefer quality over quantity so hope to stay in our #7 slot. The odds on getting a much better player at the #7 position exceed those you would get in round 2. I really cannot imagine the new Cards regime doing this. I put the odds at 100-1 we would trade into round 2. I could see us moving up a couple of positions but not out of top 10 IMHO.


I could easily see us moving back up to two times and ending up in the middle half of round 1 (somewhere in the #12-18 overall range).
 
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kerouac9

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I prefer quality over quantity so hope to stay in our #7 slot. The odds on getting a much better player at the #7 position exceed those you would get in round 2. I really cannot imagine the new Cards regime doing this. I put the odds at 100-1 we would trade into round 2. I could see us moving up a couple of positions but not out of top 10 IMHO.

In this draft, until we're actually sitting on the clock, I'm going to disagree. I think you're going to get greater quality in this draft from 2 picks in the 36-45 range than you're going to get from one pick at #7 overall.

Most of the time, I agree with you; when you're 5-11, you're not missing a piece here or there. You're missing one or more game-changing impact players. The problem is that there aren't 7 game-changing impact players in this draft--I'm not sure there are 3 of them in this draft class. If if you're going to settle for guys that are going to develop into solid starters, why not get more of them, and bank draft capital for a 2014 draft that can't be worse than this one.

It's how the Pats have managed to stay successful for a decade.
 

Chopper0080

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In this draft, until we're actually sitting on the clock, I'm going to disagree. I think you're going to get greater quality in this draft from 2 picks in the 36-45 range than you're going to get from one pick at #7 overall.

Most of the time, I agree with you; when you're 5-11, you're not missing a piece here or there. You're missing one or more game-changing impact players. The problem is that there aren't 7 game-changing impact players in this draft--I'm not sure there are 3 of them in this draft class. If if you're going to settle for guys that are going to develop into solid starters, why not get more of them, and bank draft capital for a 2014 draft that can't be worse than this one.

It's how the Pats have managed to stay successful for a decade.

I see where you are coming from but disagree to a point on the Pats. The Pats have almost gone too far the other way IMO. They have traded out of spots where they could have taken a solid player who fit a need, and ended up missing on quite a few of their acquired picks. They have been successful for a decade because of Tom Brady, and their ability to retain players past a first contract but that is just my personal feelings.

The one area where I cringe in trading back is I really like four players at #7. I like Jarvis Jones, Dion Jordan, Luke Joeckel and Chance Warmack. I think those 4 players fill needs, are star level players, and fill pretty big areas of need.

Now, I also like Jonathan Cooper almost as much as Warmack if the Cardinals are putting a preference on movement from the OG position, but I don't think you take him at #7. I do however understand the Cardinals trading back even if Warmack was available because of the position he plays and because I also see the potential of Jonathan Cooper and Travis Frederick, both who should be available in the middle third of round 1.

Either way, the Cardinals need to identify what their long term needs are for this team going forward. I believe that we will pursue a top end young QB either in this draft or next years draft, and every priority should be in creating the best offensive environment for that QB when he is brought in. A solid support system is always the best way to mitigate risk when acquiring a top, young QB and really helps that player succeed as quickly as possible. Consider despite what Mark Sanchez is now, he was successful early on with the Jets when he had a solid support system around him.
 

Chopper0080

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I could easily see us moving back up to two times and ending up in the middle half of round 1 (somewhere in the #12-18 overall range).

I would be happy with Kenny Vaccaro, Jonathan Cooper, Travis Frederick, or Damontre Moore if we traded back into the middle of round 1.

I think they are all good players who could help this team in various ways.
 
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kerouac9

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I see where you are coming from but disagree to a point on the Pats. The Pats have almost gone too far the other way IMO. They have traded out of spots where they could have taken a solid player who fit a need, and ended up missing on quite a few of their acquired picks. They have been successful for a decade because of Tom Brady, and their ability to retain players past a first contract but that is just my personal feelings.

The one area where I cringe in trading back is I really like four players at #7. I like Jarvis Jones, Dion Jordan, Luke Joeckel and Chance Warmack. I think those 4 players fill needs, are star level players, and fill pretty big areas of need.

Now, I also like Jonathan Cooper almost as much as Warmack if the Cardinals are putting a preference on movement from the OG position, but I don't think you take him at #7. I do however understand the Cardinals trading back even if Warmack was available because of the position he plays and because I also see the potential of Jonathan Cooper and Travis Frederick, both who should be available in the middle third of round 1.

Either way, the Cardinals need to identify what their long term needs are for this team going forward. I believe that we will pursue a top end young QB either in this draft or next years draft, and every priority should be in creating the best offensive environment for that QB when he is brought in. A solid support system is always the best way to mitigate risk when acquiring a top, young QB and really helps that player succeed as quickly as possible. Consider despite what Mark Sanchez is now, he was successful early on with the Jets when he had a solid support system around him.

I agree that the Pats have probably done too much of it, but I think in the past some of that has been salary cap management to keep first-round contracts off their cap.

I agree with you that if one of the pass rushers falls to us, we should take them, because pass rush leads to game-changing, impact plays. While I love Chance Warmack as a prospect, I don't think that he's a game-changer. He enables every play to be marginally more effective, but it's the rare play that you can say that the guard caused this 25-, 35-yard gain.

If the difference between Warmack and Travis Fredrick is the difference between a 5% and 8% gain on an average down, I'd rather take Fredrick and a 4th round pick and a 2014 2nd round pick.

I'm assuming that you'll disagree.
 

JeffGollin

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I haven't totally thought through the following, but here's how I think teams like NE get themselves to a point where they can continually trade back for more picks without hurting the overall talent on their roster.

Most teams couldn't do what the Pats are doing if they wanted to - because they have so many holes to fill that each time they'd trade back would merely make the hole they've dug that much deeper.

Yet the Pats were able to somehow get out from under that conundrum. How did they do it? I'm guessing thru the combination of (1) shrewd personnel decisions, (2) good luck and (3) knowing how to recognize and leverage that good luck.

For example: Tom Brady. 6th round QB who turned out to be a probable Hall of Famer. How'd they do that? Smarts? Luck? A little of both? Regardless of how, the impact of stealing Brady was huge roster-wise and draft wise. (Ask yourself: "What would have happened if the Pats not drafted Brady? They'd have to look elsewhere to find a QB (& possibly have wandered around the desert looking for one - like the Cardinals continue to do). And if they were to find another QB, how much in the way of picks and players would NE have had to pay to get him?

This is just one of at least a few examples (Logan Mankins is another). And this past year, they wound up with enough extra picks to manipulate the draft to fill two defensive holes with Hightower and the other dude.

Translating this to forward action by the Cards or any other team seeking to trade down - I think you have to (a) "get lucky" & wind up with a cluster of talent on your roster that didn't cost a lot in players or picks, (b) be smart enough to salt lesser roster positions with solid if not spectacular players and then (c) when you arrive at the point where you're winning a lot of football games with the combination of underpriced stars and solid-citizen grinders, (c) recognize your good fortune and take advantage of your ability to trade back for extra picks in the draft without leaving gaping roster-holes or hurting your ability to consistently win.

If you do it right, you hopefully reach a state of equilibrium where you can continue to roll over your extra picks to trade up to get the players you want and trade back to stockpile extra picks for future years - literally a "perpetual motion" personnel machine.

I think the key to setting all of this in motion is for a FO to recognize when "we got lucky" and - thru trades, free agency and trades - "hit the mother-load" of reasonably priced talent and to know when to pull the trigger and leverage that opportunity by emulating New England and trading back to stockpile picks.

Bottom-line: The stars have to all be in alignment for this strategy to work, and most teams are in no position to do so (They'll merely wind up chasing their own tails - digging their way out of one roster-deficit in order to replenish another one). Still - you have to give credit to the Pats for recognizing their opportunity and then knowing what to do with it.
 
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kerouac9

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Bottom-line: The stars have to all be in alignment for this strategy to work, and most teams are in no position to do so (They'll merely wind up chasing their own tails - digging their way out of one roster-deficit in order to replenish another one). Still - you have to give credit to the Pats for recognizing their opportunity and then knowing what to do with it.

Managerial cowardice. Playing not to lose, not trusting your scouting staff, etc., etc.
 

Chopper0080

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I agree that the Pats have probably done too much of it, but I think in the past some of that has been salary cap management to keep first-round contracts off their cap.

I agree with you that if one of the pass rushers falls to us, we should take them, because pass rush leads to game-changing, impact plays. While I love Chance Warmack as a prospect, I don't think that he's a game-changer. He enables every play to be marginally more effective, but it's the rare play that you can say that the guard caused this 25-, 35-yard gain.

If the difference between Warmack and Travis Fredrick is the difference between a 5% and 8% gain on an average down, I'd rather take Fredrick and a 4th round pick and a 2014 2nd round pick.

I'm assuming that you'll disagree.

Nope, I am 100% on board with this. A top OG is still an OG. They impact many aspects of the game, but in the end, they only enable other players to make plays. I think pretty highly of Warmack, Cooper and Frederick, and the only reason I would argue to stay put to draft Warmack is because I feel that he is as close to a sure thing as you get in the draft. I don't have enough time or watch enough film to determine exactly how big the gap is between Warmack and the other two, but I am not convinced it is that huge.

As for Jarvis Jones and Dion Jordan, I think they come with an inherent risk being pass rushers who have to make the jump from crappy college linemen to much tougher professional ones. IMO, Warmack does not carry near as much risk because of his physical stature to go along with his good athletic ability. Again, I believe he is a safer pick. However, I also understand and agree with the philosophy of taking Jones or Jordan over Warmack because of the higher potential reward.

Personally, I either stay and draft Warmack or trade down to acquire picks and draft Cooper or Frederick. I do this because I feel this is very important year for the Cardinals as an organization. I think in 2014 we will use our first round pick to acquire a QB, possibly trading up to get the one we want ala Washington last year. If that is the plan, then as a GM I want to acquire as much top level, supportive personnel that can help that QB. Top pass rushers do not do this. If I am Keim my draft plan is to add some key offensive line talent to upgrade and move on from Colledge, Sendlein and Snyder, add a more physical TE, a deep threat WR, and possibly a dependable RB who can pass block. All of this while also trying to add young, developmental depth to the defense. This is why my draft would hopefully pan out to add

1-Chance Warmack-OG
2-Tyler Eifert-TE
3-Stepfan Taylor-RB
4-Marquise Goodwin-WR
5-Tyrann Mathieu-CB
6a-Quanterus Smith-OLB
6b-Sean Renfree-QB
6c-Joe Kruger-DE
7-Greg Balir-ILB
(7th is a guessed comp pick)

This draft nets me a top level OG who can start and allow me to move on from Colledge's contract next year. A top TE who can block and catch. A dependable RB who can pass block. A deep threat WR who can create big, vertical passing plays. A developmental nickel CB. A developmental pass rusher with a great first step. A young QB who can help our 2014 first round QB learn the offense (or maybe we can hit gold with). Another tall, 3-4 DE. And a physical SILB prospect.

Maybe it is optimistic, but this draft uses draft picks early to net experienced, low risk players, and then mid/late picks to net high risk, high reward players. (with the exception of Blair and Kruger who fill needs)
 
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kerouac9

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If I am Keim my draft plan is to add some key offensive line talent to upgrade and move on from Colledge, Sendlein and Snyder, add a more physical TE, a deep threat WR, and possibly a dependable RB who can pass block. All of this while also trying to add young, developmental depth to the defense.

This draft nets me a top level OG who can start and allow me to move on from Colledge's contract next year. A top TE who can block and catch. A dependable RB who can pass block. A deep threat WR who can create big, vertical passing plays. A developmental nickel CB. A developmental pass rusher with a great first step. A young QB who can help our 2014 first round QB learn the offense (or maybe we can hit gold with). Another tall, 3-4 DE. And a physical SILB prospect.

Maybe it is optimistic, but this draft uses draft picks early to net experienced, low risk players, and then mid/late picks to net high risk, high reward players. (with the exception of Blair and Kruger who fill needs)

Okay. We're actually on the same page, but we're taking different directions. I'd prefer to forgo talent in this draft and bank that capital for 2014 when we go looking for a QB, and you'd like to get as much of the foundation as possible for the rest of the office in place right now, and then mortgage future draft picks to get a top quarterback prospect.

I'm talking in theory here. There's really very little chance that we'd be able to trade out of the #7 pick whatsoever, much less trade out and get picks in the 2014 draft. The top talent isn't there that is going to induce teams to think "Well, it's better to get Lane Johnson right now than hope for Jake Matthews or Ryan Lewan in 2014."

I'd like to slide down as much as we can to get cheap talent that we can develop, because I think that the Arizona Cardinals 2013 season is more or less stillborn, but the most we'll get from someone is a 3rd or 4th round pick, and that's not really going to do much.
 

Chopper0080

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Okay. We're actually on the same page, but we're taking different directions. I'd prefer to forgo talent in this draft and bank that capital for 2014 when we go looking for a QB, and you'd like to get as much of the foundation as possible for the rest of the office in place right now, and then mortgage future draft picks to get a top quarterback prospect.

I'm talking in theory here. There's really very little chance that we'd be able to trade out of the #7 pick whatsoever, much less trade out and get picks in the 2014 draft. The top talent isn't there that is going to induce teams to think "Well, it's better to get Lane Johnson right now than hope for Jake Matthews or Ryan Lewan in 2014."

I'd like to slide down as much as we can to get cheap talent that we can develop, because I think that the Arizona Cardinals 2013 season is more or less stillborn, but the most we'll get from someone is a 3rd or 4th round pick, and that's not really going to do much.

and that is why I probably just take Chance Warmack at #7. Like you, I don't think someone will offer us a 2014 2nd rounder to move back but if someone did, I would take it in a heartbeat. I think this draft is full of decent OL, WR, TE, CB, ILB and DL depth that can fill the belly of your roster in rounds 3-5. I think some of those positions like OG, TE, and ILB will drop further than their value so you can get some good players later than normal because it is a deep draft at positoins that are normally downgraded.

Another point of mine is to find players who can fill a role immediately and then develop into a larger role in the future. I know you don't prefer Stepfan Taylor, but he is a player who can step into a 3rd down RB role and then hopefully develop into a starting role. Goodwin can be a vertical 4th WR right away while he develops into a more complete player. Mathieu can fill Mike Adams role while hopefully developing into a 3rd CB. Renfree can battle Lindley who we already know sucks, and hopefully develop into a #2. Quanterus Smith can be a situational rusher and hopefully develop into a 3-4 OLB.

IMO this is a solid draft to fill your roster with immediate "role players" but definitely lacking in star talent or sure-fire long term starters.
 

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Right or wrong, drafting Warmack somewhat similar to taking Leonard Davis? Sorta? Davis was seen as really good and less of a risk?
 
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kerouac9

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Right or wrong, drafting Warmack somewhat similar to taking Leonard Davis? Sorta? Davis was seen as really good and less of a risk?

Sorta, maybe. Davis was seen as a possible Hall of Fame guard who could maybe develop into a good tackle if you wanted to. Warmack is just going to come in and be an All-Pro caliber guard.

It'd be like when the Jags drafted Tyson Alualu in the top 10 a few years ago, and people were all mad because they thought he belonged in the mid-20s. Alualu is actually a very solid player, but he was just drafted high because, well, that's the guy the Jags wanted.

It might be like when the Seahawks drafted Aaron Curry 4th overall in 2009, or when Oakland drafted Robert Gallery over flashier prospects in 2004. Hopefully the results will better.

People were really certain that Aaron Curry was going to be a stud. LOL.
 

Chopper0080

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Right or wrong, drafting Warmack somewhat similar to taking Leonard Davis? Sorta? Davis was seen as really good and less of a risk?

Both right and wrong. Davis was drafted to be an OG right away and then move to OT. We did this, but then did not want to admit he was a Pro Bowl OG and an average OT. The Cardinals failed to see this and then burnt their bridge with Davis rather than keep him in the role he showed he was suited best for. The exact opposite of what Dallas did with Larry Allen though Allen wasn't drafted #2 overall. A smart team would have moved Davis back to OG, extended his contract, and just made him the highest paid OG in the NFL. Not ideal, but they would have kept a top player rather than just throwing him away.
 

Chopper0080

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Sorta, maybe. Davis was seen as a possible Hall of Fame guard who could maybe develop into a good tackle if you wanted to. Warmack is just going to come in and be an All-Pro caliber guard.

It'd be like when the Jags drafted Tyson Alualu in the top 10 a few years ago, and people were all mad because they thought he belonged in the mid-20s. Alualu is actually a very solid player, but he was just drafted high because, well, that's the guy the Jags wanted.

It might be like when the Seahawks drafted Aaron Curry 4th overall in 2009, or when Oakland drafted Robert Gallery over flashier prospects in 2004. Hopefully the results will better.

People were really certain that Aaron Curry was going to be a stud. LOL.

Most shocking to me was Curry's inability to even be a servicable OLB. At worst I thought he would turn out to be the player that Chad Greenway turned out to be.
 

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Most shocking to me was Curry's inability to even be a servicable OLB. At worst I thought he would turn out to be the player that Chad Greenway turned out to be.

Everyone misses, even the pundits who all had him top 10. Good teams are able to survive these through solid drafting the rest of the way. I've been pretty satisfied with our 2-7 Rd. picks for the most part. Just a few obvious misses but more hits overall. Some with All-Pro credentials already. Another reason trading down a bit isn't such a bad idea if you can get a willing partner and another 2nd.
 

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Everyone misses, even the pundits who all had him top 10. Good teams are able to survive these through solid drafting the rest of the way. I've been pretty satisfied with our 2-7 Rd. picks for the most part. Just a few obvious misses but more hits overall. Some with All-Pro credentials already. Another reason trading down a bit isn't such a bad idea if you can get a willing partner and another 2nd.
I wonder if - given the coaching staff's reputation for being good teachers - we'd be more inclined to draft high-upside prospects who can be coached up instead of bringing in guys who can contribute immediately.

Also, if so, could this longer-range approach mean we'd be more willing to trade back for more players who can be developed?
 

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Yea, Julio Jones has been a total waste.

Bet the Browns like that trade as much as we did not selecting Suggs.

You stay at 7 and take the best player

This is right on the money. The original premise of the post, that there were 6-8 blue chip players, belies the conclusion to trade down. I don't care what position, if the player available's a potential star, you take him. The hell with that, lets build for 2014 crap.
 

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