Trading the First Pick Scenarios

[Harry]

While writing this, several draft analysts are predicting the Cards will trade their first pick. I realize draft positions may change, so this may need adjustment. Anyway, who is the likely trade partner? What picks could the Cards get? Who would they then take?

Scenario #1

Giants. Do they really believe in Tommy Devito? My guess is they won’t take that risk? It’s safer job-wise to get a top pick than accepting Devito is the real deal. Let them compete for the job.

Likely compensation. The draft charts would assign the Cards a 2 & 3, but this is for a QB. So all bets are off. I’m guessing the Cards could get next year’s first pick from the Giants. While I see this year’s draft as stronger, this year the Cards would get picks 39 & 70. Next year the Giants could well be about pick 20. That’s not much of an overpay. However, things could go badly for them and the Cards might get in the 12-15 range next year. That would be an excellent swap. This year the Cards would have several quality options. They could get a solid OT, any WR except Harrison or TE Bowers. They could also take a CB, but I’m betting against that. No Edge is logical here, though a few people have Latu in this vicinity.

Scenario #2

Atlanta. Surely they don’t want to go into 2024 with the current twosome. Again the safe thing is to move up and take their QB of the future. So they’d swap places with the Cards.

Likely compensation. This surely nets the Cards a 2025 number one and maybe a 2024 number 3. That number 3 is important if the Cards decide to move back up to 5-7. The Jets badly need an OT and have cap space. The Cards could offer Humphries to move up. If you’re taking an OT you don’t need Humphries. The Cards get their OT. Rodgers would prefer a vet to a rookie at OT. If things get hot and heavy, maybe Atlanta competing with NY & Vegas means that third might become a second and they could trade an existing third to satisfy the Jets. That second very well could be a player capable of starting for the Cards. If they secured the second it could be Fautanu OG or Worthy WR.

Scenario #3

Las Vegas. Again they don’t like their current QB options. This would be just like Atlanta except definitely the Cards get the 2025 first & 2024 second. The Cards could stay put get the choice of an OT like Latham, an impact WR, Latu, an Edge or the CB of their choice. The Cards could still move Humphries if they pick an OT here or with the Texas pick.

The biggest problem with trading down for picks next year is unexpected erosion. You’ve seen it with the Texas pick. Once thought to be a top 5 choice, the Cards will be lucky if it’s top 17. Still a round one at any point is a likely starter. I’m still hopeful the Cards get Harrison this year, but as days pass more and more people seem certain the Cards trade down.

 

[Chopper0080]

I agree Monti might find this idea far more appealing than most on this board would.

 

[kerouac9]

I agree Monti might find this idea far more appealing than most on this board would.

Teams looking for a QB next year:
NEP
MIN
ATL
LVR
TBB (Bakers contract voids)
WAS(?)
NYJ(?)

Really hard time seeing the Giants turn the page on Danny Dimes until 2025.

Only three or four teams will fine immediate solutions.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I agree Monti might find this idea far more appealing than most on this board would.

If Maserati Marv is gone, I'm much more enthused about trading down even with the tackles on the board.

Give me Nabers and a future first and multiple second rounders and I like that outcome.

 

[NWMike]

Best case scenario is getting the #2 pick by NE beating the Jets in week 17 then trading back with them for an extra 2 or 3 and still grabbing Harrison.

 

[AZCB34]

If Maserati Marv is gone, I'm much more enthused about trading down even with the tackles on the board.

Give me Nabers and a future first and multiple second rounders and I like that outcome.

I’m begging you, please stop with the Maserati Marv thing. Gus Johnson is a clown

 

[HairZach]

I’m begging you, please stop with the Maserati Marv thing. Gus Johnson is a clown

By clown you mean the best American Football announcer

 

[RON_IN_OC]

Teams looking for a QB next year:
NEP
MIN
ATL
LVR
TBB (Bakers contract voids)
WAS(?)
NYJ(?)

Really hard time seeing the Giants turn the page on Danny Dimes until 2025.

Only three or four teams will fine immediate solutions.

I think Mayfield is a lock to return to TB. He's had his best year and the team really seems to love him. I can see TB being in position to add another dynamic receiver...Mike Evans isn't getting any younger and Godwin has a hard time staying consistently healthy. They may also look at another RB to pair with White. Plus they'll need to reload some on defense.

 

[speedy]

I think Mayfield is a lock to return to TB. He's had his best year and the team really seems to love him. I can see TB being in position to add another dynamic receiver...Mike Evans isn't getting any younger and Godwin has a hard time staying consistently healthy. They may also look at another RB to pair with White. Plus they'll need to reload some on defense.

Wow. Just looked at his numbers for the year. 3-1 TD/int ratio, QBR of 100, and on pace for 4-4500 yards? That’s a pretty damn good season.

 

[slanidrac16]

If the Bears take MHJ we will definitely trade down to the highest bidder.
There will be very juicy offers from several teams that want/need a Qb.
We could end up with an extra 2nd, 3rd and a first round next year.
Who know we could trade Kyler for even more addition picks. Since we won’t have a lot of cap space we can load up the roster with rookie contracts! lol.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Really hard time seeing the Giants turn the page on Danny Dimes until 2025.

Yeah I agree with this. The Giants are pretty much in the exact same situation with Jones as the Cardinals are with Murray. They are pretty much stuck with these guys for 2024 whether they like it or not.

 

[football karma]

it feels like there is a GIGANTIC difference between the #3 and #4 slots

this week will go a long way to determining if the Cards keep the #3 slot --

obvs -- Cards at Bears

but also: NYJ at WASH.

We really want Wash to get their 5th win here, because they finish with SF and DAL -- with DAL likely having something to play for in week 18.

 

[Fitz4Ever]

If we move out of the top 3 then go ahead and trade down, unless Jayden Daniels somehow gets himself into the top 3.

Once we miss on MHJ, there is a group of players I would be ok with, so trading down would be fine. I certainly wouldn't mind a first next year, but this draft is really good, so Id also want to make sure we got several swings of the bat in the top 3 rounds of this draft.

First choice would be the Giants, but I would demand swapping picks in the 1st and #37 and #46. If they want a QB they will pay it.

With Atlanta and Vegas I feel like we are moving past a point where we are guaranteed to get the #1 player at a position, whether that is OT or CB. We might be able to get Latham...and we might be able to get Kool-Aid....but its not a guarantee. Alt, and Fashanu will be gone by #10 IMO.

Obviously this all depends on where we end up. If we end up top 2...then all these offers go up because Williams/Maye are better prospects. If we stick at 3 and still have a chance to draft MHJ its going to have to be a trade that factors in the player we are forfeiting...the #1 player in the draft. If we fall out of the top 3, or don't have a chance to draft MHJ then I say trade down and focus on finding lots of players that will play next year and upgrade the overall roster significantly.

Right now we have 3 picks in the top 35 that we should EXPECT to be starters next year. I would say this draft is good enough, and our roster is weak enough we could find starters anywhere in the top 60 picks....so more picks would be ok with me. The trade with the Giants would give us #6, #17, #34, #37, #46. If those 5 picks turn into solid NFL players our roster is massively upgraded.

 

[Fitz4Ever]

it feels like there is a GIGANTIC difference between the #3 and #4 slots

this week will go a long way to determining if the Cards keep the #3 slot --

obvs -- Cards at Bears

but also: NYJ at WASH.

We really want Wash to get their 5th win here, because they finish with SF and DAL -- with DAL likely having something to play for in week 18.

I have a bad feeling we are gonna screw it up and beat the bears...fall down to between 6-8 and cripple our ability to move around in the draft. But hey...lots of people on this board rooting for that.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

The more I think about it, the more I think the Bears are staying at 1 and taking Caleb Williams. Two reasons for this. This coaching staff/FO didn't draft Fields. Secondly, by keeping Fields, they are pretty much committing $40-55 mill/year to him with an extension. Is he worth that? He's shown potential but they can start new with a QB on a rookie pay scale and build the team elsewhere.

They could wait and give Fields another year to show he's the guy before extending him, but, if he's not, they'd be chancing having a middling pick and not have a legit at a potential franchise QB at the top of the draft.

Either way, if the Cards stay at 3. Harrison is going to be there and should/better be the pick.

 

[BirdGangThing]

It's not like we're in some kind of win now window and we have a lack of talent in a lot of places - but trading back again would not be popular - and if MHJ is still on the board it will be unforgivable for some

 

[kerouac9]

The more I think about it, the more I think the Bears are staying at 1 and taking Caleb Williams. Two reasons for this. This coaching staff/FO didn't draft Fields. Secondly, by keeping Fields, they are pretty much committing $40-55 mill/year to him with an extension. Is he worth that? He's shown potential but they can start new with a QB on a rookie pay scale and build the team elsewhere.

They could wait and give Fields another year to show he's the guy before extending him, but, if he's not, they'd be chancing having a middling pick and not have a legit at a potential franchise QB at the top of the draft.

Either way, if the Cards stay at 3. Harrison is going to be there and should/better be the pick.

Chicago is definitely in a pickle. Do they believe in Matt Eberflus enough to tie him to a top QB pick? Drafting first-round QBs and then immediately firing the coaches who chose them is the Bears' brand. It's deep in their DNA to not set their young draft choices up for success.

I think they should go the Danny Dimes route, not pick up Fields' fifth-year option and roll the dice. They trade out of the #1 overall pick and roll over that opportunity for another year while still picking up a very good prospect. If Fields/Flus doesn't work out, you have a fresh start for the next dude.

 

[football karma]

I have a bad feeling we are gonna screw it up and beat the bears...fall down to between 6-8 and cripple our ability to move around in the draft. But hey...lots of people on this board rooting for that.

beating the Bears just takes them to 4. If Wash beat the Jets, the Cards stay at #3

the scenario you describe is beating Chi and one more -- maybe SEA at home. Thats 5 wins and suddenly they are drafting as late as 9

 

[Garthshort]

While writing this, several draft analysts are predicting the Cards will trade their first pick. I realize draft positions may change, so this may need adjustment. Anyway, who is the likely trade partner? What picks could the Cards get? Who would they then take?

Scenario #1

Giants. Do they really believe in Tommy Devito? My guess is they won’t take that risk? It’s safer job-wise to get a top pick than accepting Devito is the real deal. Let them compete for the job.

Likely compensation. The draft charts would assign the Cards a 2 & 3, but this is for a QB. So all bets are off. I’m guessing the Cards could get next year’s first pick from the Giants. While I see this year’s draft as stronger, this year the Cards would get picks 39 & 70. Next year the Giants could well be about pick 20. That’s not much of an overpay. However, things could go badly for them and the Cards might get in the 12-15 range next year. That would be an excellent swap. This year the Cards would have several quality options. They could get a solid OT, any WR except Harrison or TE Bowers. They could also take a CB, but I’m betting against that. No Edge is logical here, though a few people have Latu in this vicinity.

Scenario #2

Atlanta. Surely they don’t want to go into 2024 with the current twosome. Again the safe thing is to move up and take their QB of the future. So they’d swap places with the Cards.

Likely compensation. This surely nets the Cards a 2025 number one and maybe a 2024 number 3. That number 3 is important if the Cards decide to move back up to 5-7. The Jets badly need an OT and have cap space. The Cards could offer Humphries to move up. If you’re taking an OT you don’t need Humphries. The Cards get their OT. Rodgers would prefer a vet to a rookie at OT. If things get hot and heavy, maybe Atlanta competing with NY & Vegas means that third might become a second and they could trade an existing third to satisfy the Jets. That second very well could be a player capable of starting for the Cards. If they secured the second it could be Fautanu OG or Worthy WR.

Scenario #3

Las Vegas. Again they don’t like their current QB options. This would be just like Atlanta except definitely the Cards get the 2025 first & 2024 second. The Cards could stay put get the choice of an OT like Latham, an impact WR, Latu, an Edge or the CB of their choice. The Cards could still move Humphries if they pick an OT here or with the Texas pick.

The biggest problem with trading down for picks next year is unexpected erosion. You’ve seen it with the Texas pick. Once thought to be a top 5 choice, the Cards will be lucky if it’s top 17. Still a round one at any point is a likely starter. I’m still hopeful the Cards get Harrison this year, but as days pass more and more people seem certain the Cards trade down.

Harry, not sure the experts REALLY think that we'll trade down. It just makes for a better story. Consider:
1. We stand pat a take a player. End of story.
2. We trade down and about three or four stories evolve.
a. The pick made by the trade partner.
b. Will we trade down again?
c. Will we trade back up? Like last year.
d. Who won the trade? At least, that is how I see it.

 

[Harry]

The more I think about it, the more I think the Bears are staying at 1 and taking Caleb Williams. Two reasons for this. This coaching staff/FO didn't draft Fields. Secondly, by keeping Fields, they are pretty much committing $40-55 mill/year to him with an extension. Is he worth that? He's shown potential but they can start new with a QB on a rookie pay scale and build the team elsewhere.

They could wait and give Fields another year to show he's the guy before extending him, but, if he's not, they'd be chancing having a middling pick and not have a legit at a potential franchise QB at the top of the draft.

Either way, if the Cards stay at 3. Harrison is going to be there and should/better be the pick.

There are several analysts who agree with you.

 

[JohnnyCakes]

but if the Bears like Maye more than Williams, do they have the monster nads to draft another inexperienced qb from UNC?

 

[Fitz4Ever]

beating the Bears just takes them to 4. If Wash beat the Jets, the Cards stay at #3

the scenario you describe is beating Chi and one more -- maybe SEA at home. Thats 5 wins and suddenly they are drafting as late as 9

I might be wrong but I think if we go to 4 wins we lose several.spota due to strength of schedule. Harry said we could end up anywhere from 4-8 with 4 wins depending on other results.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I swear, if this team in back to back years, passes on the chance to draft a blue chip Edge player and WR, possible SUPERSTAR level players, so we can get a (hopefully) solid RT and a bunch of other picks who haven't done much to distinguish themselves so far, you're gonna get some stinky Cheese round these parts for a while.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I might be wrong but I think if we go to 4 wins we lose several.spota due to strength of schedule. Harry said we could end up anywhere from 4-8 with 4 wins depending on other results.

we could only go down 1 spot if we end up with 4 wins because everyone else after Washington (who would jump us to 3 if we're both 4-13) already has 5 wins and we would be a game up on them, no tiebreakers needed.

 

[DVontel]

We all need to be Commanders fans this week.