In statistics, you’ll hear the phrase ‘ . . . all things being equal’ after changing a single variable and attempting to trace the effects. To look at a hypothetical trade up for Cam Newton, for simplicity’s sake one has to assume that all other player performances and other factors will ‘be equal.’ The assumption is that Cam and the other players involved are all going to perform to the same stats with either the Panthers or the Cards. That is a huge leap and we all know what happens when you assume something ( It makes an ass out of u and me.) It is also the basic assumption that underlies every player move, draft pick, trade, etc. The guy performed great in college . . . assume he’ll do the same in the pros. We do indeed look at players as if they are plug-n-play robots.
Of course that is never the case. One other extreme to all things being equal is summarized in chaos theory and ‘The Butterfly Effect.’ “The phrase refers to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that may ultimately alter the path of a tornado or delay, accelerate or even prevent the occurrence of a tornado in another location. The butterfly does not power or directly create the tornado, but the term is intended to imply that the flap of the butterfly's wings can cause the tornado: in the sense that the flap of the wings is a part of the initial conditions; one set of conditions leads to a tornado while the other set of conditions doesn't. The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which cascades to large-scale alterations of events (compare: domino effect). Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different—but it's also equally possible that the set of conditions without the butterfly flapping its wings is the set that leads to a tornado.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect
When Cam went to the Panthers, there was a unique combination of factors that resulted in his success. For example, Solar7 brings up having both Stewart and Williams as RBs to support Cam.
In the Cards/Panthers SB run in 2015, Palmer was supported by CJ, DJ, and AE while Cam was supported at RB by Stewart and Tolbert. Would Cam have been as good on a Cards team with our three guys? Would he have been even better with our three? The same question could be asked on how Cam would have performed with our WR—would he have had more or less yards and fewer INT with Fitz over Smith? Our OL, our D, our coaching staff, our water coolers, our uniforms, our chewing gum, etc.
In 2015, Cam passed for 3837 yards and rushed for 636. Stewart rushed for 989 and Tolbert added 256. The top three rushers (which included Cam and no Williams) went for 1881 yards.
Offense 3837 + 1881 = 5718 (just Cam’s number and the other top rushers)
In 2015, Palmer passed for 4671 yards. The top three rushers for the Cards had CJ at 814 + DJ at 581 and AE at 289 = 1684. (KW was the fourth leading rusher with 142 yards but I stopped at the top three for comparisons sake)
Offense 4671 + 1684 = 6355 (Palmer’s passing numbers and the top three rushers)
Cards O was putting up more than the Panthers; our rushing trio put up numbers very close to the Panther’s top three rushers. So, to just toss out the notion that Cam would not have done as well without his Williams/Stewart RB does hold up under the stats for 2015. Got to at least look at the numbers.
Here’s the butterfly wing in 2015. Palmer banged up his finger. Instead of getting him out of the game when he injured himself, he went back in (BA? CP himself wanting to soldier on?). How severe the injury has never been fully revealed but what we do know is CP tanked in the following games. It was only a miracle toss and then run by Fitz that got us past the Pack—and then the Cards were totally destroyed by the Panthers in the Conference championship 49-15. Was it the injury to the finger? Was it CP’s mental state and confidence level and inability to perform in a big game?
So, the challenge question if you want to downplay hypothetical trades is ‘How would you evaluate the different possibilities in trading draft choices to move up to aid in the decision-making process if you don’t want to keep ‘all other things being equal.’”If you prefer chaos theory, best have a really, really, really big supercomputer for all the variables.
