Treading Water

George O'Brien

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This feels like one of the longest two week periods I can remember. Next Thursday we'll know if Q will be a Sun or not. With everything else going on in the area of free agency and trades, it is frustrating not know what is going to happen.

Will the Clippers match? The rumors seem to run about 50-50. I'm guessing the Suns put some interesting gimmicks into their contract to really screw up the Clippers if they match. The most obvious is that the Suns have put in a huge signing bonus because the Suns now the have cash to do that. I suspect that there may be big trade kicker which could bother the Clippers who have to deal with the fact that Q and Maggette don't get along. I would guess that Q will begin a campaign of bad mouthing the Clippers starting next week to help discourage them from wanting him back.

That being said, I'd say the odds remain strong that the Clippers will end up matching. They have not been even mentioned in most free agent discussions in spite of having a lot of cap space. This is true even if they do re-sign Q. Their lack of activity makes you wonder if Sterling every really expected to get Kobe. Perhaps he just used Kobe as an excuse to cut salaries.

On the Dampier front, I remain mystified by the comments by guys like Chad Ford that if Dampier doesn't do a sign and trade, he may end up taking an MLE deal. It seems to me that Dampier could get a lot more money from the Clippers, even if the Clips match Q. He could get somewhat more money with the Suns (about $1 a year over the MLE), so I cannot see any good reason why he would settle for an MLE deal.

It would appear that most GM's are looking at Dampier's career numbers rather than just last year's (go figure). Ill admit his value is beginning to look a lot lower than I would have expected. I'm not sure it would be enough lower to meet the Suns budget. But it does not seem quite as ridiculous as it might have seemed before. Since the Warriors made their recent moves, they may be less willing to take back contracts they don't like.

The Suns chances of getting Dampier remains a long shot. I'm guessing that Memphis is the last team in a position to a sign and trade, but they seem clear Memphis won't move Swift without a fight. If the Warriors settled for some of their other players, it could still happen.

The rumor of the three way trade with Houston (gets Eisley) and Boston (sends Mihm to Phoenix while getting Jacobsen) seems pretty far fetched. Ironically, the problem isn't so much the extraordinary chance of moving Eisley to Houston without giving them a first, it is that Boston doesn't need another guard in Jacobsen (they have four SG's already not counting Pierce who can play there).

In spite of this, there may be something more than an overactive imagination involved here. It is clear that the Celtics need to move some bodies and perhaps reduce their payroll. It is also true that the Rockets need an experienced PG to go along with Lue and Gaines. The Rockets may have a left over trade exemption, but there is no reason to think it would be enough to take Eisley straight up. BTW, the Rockets salaries are at $49 million, so Eisely shouldn't put them over the luxury tax limit.

What would it take to make the deal work? Without knowing the level of Rockets trade exemption, it is impossible to tell. However, from the Boston perspective I would think that the rights to Vujanic would be vastly more attractive than getting Jacobsen. They have a clutter of young players and could afford to wait on Vujanic. In any case, I'm not sure it would work if the Rockets trade exemption isn't large enough.

Why do I take this deal more seriously than most other rumored deals? Because it is not the kind of thing most people would make up, especially people from out of town. Outside of Phoenix, who would care about the trade of third string center on the Celtics for a third string PG on the Suns? There are no big names to make the deal even vaguely interesting to most basketball fans. It's credible because it is so boring. :D

There was an article about Tractor Trailor which suggests that he may be just as anxious to come to the Suns as the Sun are to get him. My guess is that he waiting on Q to see if the Suns can offer more than the veteran minimum. His name has come up in regards to the Cavs and apparently the Hornets would like him back.

Since the Hornets just signed Chris Anderson, I suspect they are not inclined to offer Trailor much more than the Suns can offer. On the Hornets, his minutes would be more limited than last season. The Cavs are a more serious prospect, but they are also talking to the ever popular Vin Baker. Trailor broke in with the Cavs, but it is not clear if that is good or bad. We'll see.

It is hard to tell how interested the Suns are in Joel Przybilla. I was a little surprised the Hawks did not give him a qualifying offer since he did average 8.4 rpg in 26.2 minutes, but he played only 12 games for them.

Przybilla has a history of injuries and did very little when with the Bucks. 2001-02 was his best year when he averaged 15.2 minutes in 72 games: 4.0 rpg, 53.3% shooting but only for 2.7 ppg. But he lost most of last season with injuries and barely played before going to Atlanta.

Neither Trailor nor Przybilla are likely to be major contributors but both are physical bangers. Trailor has generally been healthy through his career but Przybilla is a lot taller.
 
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Dylan

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The long wait is actually longer, and it feels longer!! We've known about Q since the first few days of FA. We spent the last 6 months giving away Marbury, giving away draft picks, moving out of the first round, all in preparation for free agency.

Then we make a splash on the first day, and I believe it was only a couple days after that when we heard about Q. We were all primed to get the "next guy" in FA, and boom... we are right on the sidelines, stuck waiting for a week or two JUST to get it signed officially, and THEN the next 15 days. It has been kind of like getting in a fast car and then just when you are going to let it out, you see the cops on the road, and you gotta slow down. :D

Been a tough offseason on the nerves.

When it is all over, and if it turns out with something good, then the wait was worth it. But either way, it has been a long summer.

I think Dampier really hurt himself at the start of FA when he said he wanted a max contract. With his history, I think the teams with money just moved off of him, and the next thing he knows, the teams with money have spent it on other guys. Now he is left with the Clippers or Hawks with the cap money, and nobody is gonna give him the money he thought he'd get.

Be interesting to see what happens if Q is matched, and he is still around. If we got him for the money we would have given to Q, that would be a steal in my opinion. But the Suns apparent lack of interest in him interests me. Do they just not want him, or are they playing it cool? They were quiet about Nash before it all began as well.
 
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George O'Brien

George O'Brien

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All reports have been that the Suns were simply not interested in Dampier, but that was probably just at the the price he was asking.
 

scotsman13

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i think that once we have gotten "q" (if we get him) i think a that a lot of things will happen very quickly.

as far is eisley goes i believe that he is a FVG man and maybe the best point guard that would fit his systems that they can get for something cheap. in 02-03 under FVG he started 76 games for the knicks. so he is a player that FVG feels that he can trust with the point guard job. houston is very very short on depth for the team. on top of that the age and health on that team should be a very big concern for the rockets. unless they can grab a young point guard for less (crawford) then this maybe their best change to get a point guard who can fit their needs.
 

cepstrum

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On the Dampier front, I remain mystified by the comments by guys like Chad Ford that if Dampier doesn't do a sign and trade, he may end up taking an MLE deal. It seems to me that Dampier could get a lot more money from the Clippers, even if the Clips match Q. He could get somewhat more money with the Suns (about $1 a year over the MLE), so I cannot see any good reason why he would settle for an MLE deal.

There is an article on hoopshype today in which Dampier actually admits that he may have to take mle money for two years if the trade with the knicks doesnt go down. We can offer just above that if we dont get Q and that wouldnt bother me at all.
 

cepstrum

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scotsman13 said:
i think that once we have gotten "q" (if we get him) i think a that a lot of things will happen very quickly.

as far is eisley goes i believe that he is a FVG man and maybe the best point guard that would fit his systems that they can get for something cheap. in 02-03 under FVG he started 76 games for the knicks. so he is a player that FVG feels that he can trust with the point guard job. houston is very very short on depth for the team. on top of that the age and health on that team should be a very big concern for the rockets. unless they can grab a young point guard for less (crawford) then this maybe their best change to get a point guard who can fit their needs.
People are forgetting that there is another JVG guy out there that can be had for a much better price, Charlie Ward. I think he is a free agent. I have a hard time believing that the ROX would take on Eisley when they could have ward.
 

scotsman13

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JVG choose to start eisley over ward. by looking at their stats it is easy to see as soon as eisley came on board ward was bench bound and then went on to average around 21 minute a game for the time that JVG was running the team. so to me it looks like ward isnt a JVG guy and he didnt feel that he was a good starter (they have lue as a back up, they need a starter). do i think that houston is going to do this trade? i dont know. what i do know is that houston is 1 injury away from an 18 win season and it doesnt have to be to tmac or yoa. the rockets have some very bad depth problems and unless they do something about it they are going to be a lot of trouble.
 

cepstrum

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scotsman13 said:
JVG choose to start eisley over ward. by looking at their stats it is easy to see as soon as eisley came on board ward was bench bound and then went on to average around 21 minute a game for the time that JVG was running the team. so to me it looks like ward isnt a JVG guy and he didnt feel that he was a good starter (they have lue as a back up, they need a starter). do i think that houston is going to do this trade? i dont know. what i do know is that houston is 1 injury away from an 18 win season and it doesnt have to be to tmac or yoa. the rockets have some very bad depth problems and unless they do something about it they are going to be a lot of trouble.
Yea that is definetly true, but JVG doesnt call all the shots. I think it may come down to money although I dont know for sure.
 

elindholm

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what i do know is that houston is 1 injury away from an 18 win season and it doesnt have to be to tmac or yoa.

If the Rockets are one injury away from an 18-win season, Eisley isn't going to save them.
 

scotsman13

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mo eisley wont save them but he gives them some depth that may help them if they do have an injury.
4 Reece Gaines G 6-6 205 1/07/81 Louisville '03 1
7 Adrian Griffin G-F 6-5 230 7/04/74 Seton Hall '96 5
5 Juwan Howard F 6-9 230 2/07/73 Michigan '95 10
21 Jim Jackson F-G 6-6 220 10/14/70 Ohio State '93 12
31 Mark Jackson (FA) G 6-3 195 4/01/65 St. John's (N.Y.) '87 17
10 Tyronn Lue G 6-0 178 5/03/77 Nebraska '98 6
1 Tracy McGrady G 6-8 210 5/24/79 Mount Zion Christian Acad. HS 7
9 Bostjan Nachbar F 6-9 221 7/03/80 Slovenia 2
35 Scott Padgett (FA) F 6-9 240 4/19/76 Kentucky '99 5
52 Eric Piatkowski G-F 6-7 215 9/30/70 Nebraska '94 10
Vassilis Spanoulis** G 6-4 188 7/08/82 Greece R
2 Maurice Taylor F 6-9 255 10/30/76 Michigan '97 6
30 Clarence Weatherspoon F 6-7 270 9/08/70 Southern Mississippi '92 12
29 Mike Wilks (FA) G 5-11 180 5/07/79 Rice '01 2
11 Yao Ming C 7-6 310 9/12/80 China 2

yoa hasnt stopped playing since before he was drafted, tmac has a bad back, jim jackson is 33 years old playing small forward, and howard is 31. other then that their roster is filled with who's and i thought he retired's that isnt a good mix if you hope to go into the playoffs.
 
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George O'Brien

George O'Brien

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I had forgotten about the Van Gundy connection.

I'm guessing that a straight up deal of Eisley to Houston would require the Suns to take back some of Eisley's salary. I am entirely unclear on exactly how this works, but I know it happens.

BTW, I'm really surprised Ward was not re-signed by the Mavs who had his Bird rights. He must have not shown much.
 

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